Thursday 4/30/2015

The daily chart shows price yesterday matching Tuesday's high and making a higher low but closing below the daily and weekly pivots and the MD MA. Price today has opened below the daily pivot and made a lower low by one tick and is trying to find support on the MW MA. The action thus far today has flattened out the blue MD MA; unless price rallies today to turn the MD MA upward, it would indicate that Monday was a very early multi-week high. While it would be a higher MW high that the prior one, it would again call raise questions as to what is going on with the either the multi-month or multi-year cycles to be causing the continuing half-span shifts of the multi-week cycle.

So far, the Monday high/Tuesday low scenario is still in play for the week and as I mentioned yesterday that is highly unlikely to stand by week's end. Whether we finish with a bearish Monday high/Friday low or a bullish Tuesday low/Friday high (Thursday can be substituted for Friday in either scenario and the bearish/bullish implications would be the same) will help clear up the question of where we are in the multi-week cycle.

The hourly chart shows price making a 24Hr low early afternoon yesterday below the green MW MA and rallying for two bars where it made its 24Hr high below the combined resistance of the white 24Hr MA, the daily pivot, and the blue MD MA. Price overnight twice found resistance at the daily pivot for session highs before dropping again and making a slightly lower low than yesterday's 24Hr low. All of this indicates that we are still on the downside of the multi-day cycle. The MD cycle low is projected for tomorrow after the close, but higher timeframe support such as the MW MA on the daily chart could put this low in early.

Price is currently rising into its session high to test the 24Hr MA and MW MA. If we are stil on the downside of the 24Hr cycle, price will find resistance there then retest the overnight lows. If the overnight low was the 24Hr low, the fact that it is a double-bottom with yesterday's 24Hr low (only one tick difference) could mean that that it is also a multi-day low and price should then be able to rally above daily pivot. Given the commentary above in the daily chart segment, I would also then expect price to take out Monday's high by tomorrow's close. Of course, if the overnight low was not the 24Hr low,then price will make a lower session high this hourly bar or the next and then head down to match or break the overnight lows.