Friday 4/10/2015

The daily chart shows price making a higher low and higher high yesterday, closing solidly above the MM MA and making a high for the week. Today price has thus far opened above the daily pivot and made a new high for the week, giving us a Monday low/Friday high scenario; this scenario was mentioned in yesterday morning's blog and is worth re-reading. Price is currently on the upside of the MW cycle, and the MW high is projected for Monday. There is the possibility that this MW high extends in time if we are also on the upside of the multi-month cycle, and that will likely need to occur if price is going to make a higher MW high (and make a new all-time high in the process). Just as the blue MD MA has turned up out of the MW low and will support price into the eventual MW high, when that high is in the MD MA will get turned down and will become resistance. While the support/resistance role of this moving average (and even the larger timeframe MAs) has lessened greatly during this recent period of sideways tradings, it is still clear how the turns in the blue MD MA have followed the MW highs and lows (I have temporarily thickened the MA to make this easier to see).

The hourly chart is unclear as to the status of past 24Hr highs and lows. The pre-market low of yesterday that had been mentioned as a possible 24Hr low is still a candidate, though price made a lower session low seven hours later; this lower low was the result of a long tail on a candlestick that closed above session MA support however, so I am more tempted to use the prior low as the 24Hr low. Another issue is that unless there has been another 24Hr high since Wednesday morning's 24Hr high, we are approaching 48 hours since the last 24Hr high. Fortunately, one not need obsess over assigning the markers for the 24Hr high and low; price is currently on the upside of the 24Hr cycle and when a more obvious 24Hr high is made, I will work backward to find the intervening 24Hr high (and low). The gold session cycle MA will support price until the 24Hr high is in, then price will drop below the MA and turn it downward as price tests the 24Hr MA, daily pivot, or MD MA for support for the 24Hr low. If we are still on the upside of the multi-day cycle, the white 24Hr MA or daily pivot will hold and price will not test the blue MD MA; the MD high is projected for Monday, the same day as the projected MW high.