Monday 11/30/15

The monthly chart shows price with one day remaining in November's candle having made a higher high and higher low versus October.   Price continues to trade above the monthly and yearly pivots and the MM and MY MAs, but has not yet surpassed the May/July highs.  While it certainly appears that the August low was a multi-year low, we have not yet seen a definitive higher multi-month low nor the upturn of the MM MA that would confirm this; it is possible that price will first confirm we are on the upside of a new MY cycle by making a new all-time high.

The weekly chart shows price last week making a higher low and higher high but closing little-changed versus the prior week's candle.   Price early in this week's candle has opened above the daily pivot and that action has turned the MW MA upward.  Should this be maintained by week's end, the upturn of the MW MA will confirm the low of two weeks ago as a higher MM low; as mentioned above, this would confirm that the August low was a MY low and that we are now on the upside of a new MY cycle.

The daily chart shows price trading mostly sideways last week, but finding support on the MW MA.  This MA has flattened out, indicating that the multi-week high may already have seen.  A MW low is projected for 12/8.   It is possible that this sideways consolidation is a correction in time rather than price, which would be a sign of bullish strength, but with over a week left before the projected MW low and price still in the sideways trading range it would be foolish to assume that we will not see a break lower.   If we are on the upside of the MY and MM cycles, however, the weekly pivot could easily provide support for the MW low to be seen; thus a move higher out of this trading range could very well mean that we have seen an early MW low and are now on the upside of a new MW cycle.

The hourly chart shows price on Friday making a 24Hr low on the "soft" support of the MD MA followed instantly by a 24Hr high under 24Hr MA resistance.  This lower 24Hr high confirms the Thursday high as a multi-day high. We then saw a higher, half-span 24Hr low in overnight trading which confirms the Friday low as a multi-day low.

Price is in the timeframe to see a Session low; support for this low should be found on the gold Session MA.   With a 24Hr high not due until noon, we should see price bounce off the Session MA and trade higher in search of its 24Hr high.  Should the Session MA fail to provide support and price instead trades below the daily pivot/24Hr MA, we must be open to the idea that Friday's high was also a MW high and that we are seeing an early 24Hr high (and possibly an early MD high).  In that scenario, price would normally be expected to break lower to retest the weekly pivot and possibly the MW MA before the projected 12/8 MW low.

Friday 11/27/2015

The daily chart shows price trading sideways the last several days, finding support at the MD MA but unable to overcome resistance just below the prior multi-week high.  The MW high was projected for two days ago, and a break and close below the MD MA will very likely indicate that the MW high has been seen.  The next MW low is projected for 12/8, and where that MW low is made will be very informative as to where price is in the multi-month cycle.   Should the green MW MA and/or weekly pivot provide support for the MW low, it would indicate that price is still on the upside of the multi-month cycle.  Failure to find support there would indicate that price is still on the downside of the MM cycle and mean a retest of the November low for a double bottom or lower low is in store in the weeks ahead.

The hourly chart shows price rising to a 24Hr high and likely MD high in early Thanksgiving trading.   Price then fell below the daily pivot and 24Hr MA, finally finding support at the MD MA for what was likely a 24Hr low.  A 24Hr high is projected for noon, and if we are on the downside of the MD cycle then price should find resistance for this high at the 24Hr MA or daily pivot.  Should price break below the MD MA for its next MD low, it will indicate that the MW high is behind us; in that scenario I would expect price to drop lower to test the green MW MA or the weekly pivot within the next several days.

Wednesday 11/25/15

The daily chart shows price yesterday making a lower high and lower low but closing little-changed versus Monday's candle.  Price found soft support on the MD MA yesterday and today has opened above its daily pivot and is trading slightly higher; this keeps open the possibility that Friday was merely a multi-day high and that the MW high, projected for today, has yet to be seen.   Of course this can only be confirmed by eclipsing the Monday high within the next few trading days, whereas a break below yesterday's low would be a strong sign that the MW high has been seen.

The hourly chart shows price making a 24Hr low and likely MD low on MW MA support in yesterday's pre-market trading.  The MW MA was tested again six bars later for a higher session low and then price was off to the races, blowing through 24Hr MA and daily pivot resistance.

It is unclear whether price saw yet another early 24Hr high after the close and a 24Hr low in overnight trading; technically the conditions for each were met with the turning of the gold Session MA and a lower Session high (for the potential 24Hr high) and higher Session low (for the potential 24Hr low).   If so, then price should find support at the Session MA for a session low and trade higher in search of its 24Hr high projected near the close.   If an early 24Hr high and low were not seen late yesterday, the high made several bars ago is likely the 24Hr high and Session MA support should fail as price tests the 24Hr MA or daily pivot for its slightly overdue 24Hr low.  

Tuesday 11/24/15

The daily chart shows price yesterday making a lower high and higher low versus Friday's candle.  Price thus far today has opened below the daily pivot and is currently trading below both the MD MA and MW MA.  This is certainly behavior indicative of price being on the downside of the multi-day cycle, but it also shows signs of being on the downside of the multi-week cycle; unless price finds "soft" support at these MAs and is able to rally back above them by today's close, it becomes more likely that price put in an earlier-than-projected MW high on Friday.

A slightly early MW high would not by itself be a reason for caution, though one cannot say it is bullish.  The fact that it would also be a lower MW high does not necessarily add to the bearish case either, because it only confirms the early November high as a multi-month high - which we had already assumed.   It does, however, leave open the possibility that last Monday's MW low was not the MM low, meaning a lower MM low is still in front of us.  While there is still a good chance that we are merely seeing a downturn in the MD cycle and will turn higher by later today or tomorrow, the alternative is that we are now on the downside of the MW cycle.  The next MW low is not expected until 12/8.

The hourly chart shows price making a lower 24Hr high late yesterday morning then dropping softly into a slightly lower 24Hr low by late afternoon.  Price could only manage to move sideways overnight into an early 24Hr high under daily pivot/24Hr MA resistance, indicating that price was still on the downside of the MD cycle.  We then saw a sharp drop down to the MW MA where price is trying to find support for an early 24Hr low.  The next 24Hr low is not projected until late afternoon; it is likely that the next 24Hr low will also be a multi-day low.  The MW MA would be a likely place for price to find support for this low, with the weekly pivot being the next line of support for the bulls.   

Monday 11/23/15

The monthly chart shows that we have seen a higher high and higher low in November versus last month's bar.  Price opened the month above its monthly pivot (white dot found above, below or within each candlestick), tested and found support at that pivot, and has traded higher. This is behavior indicative of price being on the upside of the multi-year cycle, which hints at the August low being a multi-year low.   In order to confirm this, however, we need to see either a higher multi-month low on the weekly chart, or we need to see the pink multi-month MA turn higher; the MM MA is the backbone of the multi-year cycle, providing support for price on the upside of the MY cycle and resistance to price on the downside of the MY cycle.  If we are indeed on the upside of the MY cycle, the next MY high is not projected until August of next year.

The weekly chart shows price last week making a lower low and lower high but sharply higher close than the prior week.  Price found support on the MM MA and monthly pivot in the timeframe for a multi-month low to be seen and then rocketed higher.  Early in this week's candlestick we have opened above the weekly pivot and the green MW MA, behavior indicative of being on the upside of the multi-month cycle.

If price can take out the prior MM high from three bars ago and turn the green MW MA higher, it would confirm last week as a MM low; the MW MA is the backbone of the multi-month cycle, providing support to price on the upside of the MM cycle and resistance to price on the downside of the MM cycle.   If price is on the upside of the multi-month cycle, it indicates that last week saw a higher multi-month low, which would in turn confirm the prior August MM low as a multi-year low.  The next MM high is not projected until the last week of January.

The daily chart shows price last week making a Monday low and Friday high, a typical scenario when price is on the upside of the multi-week cycle.  Monday's low found support on the monthly pivot and MM MA and by Friday price had climbed above blue MD MA and turned that average upward, indicating that price is on the upside of the multi-week cycle and that Monday's low was a MW low; the MD MA is the backbone of the multi-week cycle- you can see how it provided resistance to price as it searched out its multi-week low, and it now provides support to price as it searches for its next MW high.  The MW high is projected for this Wednesday, though if last week was also the multi-month low, the MW high could extend in time.

All of the talk thus far has leaned toward the bullish theory that we are on the upside of the MY, MM and MW cycles. This is because the behavior of price seems to indicate this on the various charts. But it is important to remember that it has not yet been confirmed that we are on the upside of the MY cycle, and it has not yet been confirmed that we are on the upside of the MM cycle.  While it has been confirmed that we are on the upside of the MW cycle, price could easily put in a lower MW high between now and the projection (Wednesday) and turn sharply lower.  While I do not believe this is the most likely scenario, a move below last week's MW low would force me to reevaluate.

The hourly chart shows price making a higher 24Hr high late Friday morning, then finding support on the white 24Hr MA several bars later for a 24Hr low.  Price has been unable to surpass Friday's high in overnight/pre-market trading, and now appears to be finding resistance at the 24Hr MA; this would indicate that Friday was a multi-day high and we are now on the downside of the MD cycle. 

The daily cycle is unclear, as it is likely that we saw a lower 24Hr high somewhere in the overnight/pre-market trading.  With a 24Hr low not expected until the close and with price being on the downside of the MD cycle, today should see price fall throughout the day.   I would expect a move down to the MD MA/MW MA confluence area at 2067 today or tomorrow; this area should provide support for price to find a MD low.

Since I talked in prior paragraphs about certain MAs being the "backbone" of certain cycles, I might as well continue with the hourly chart.  The hourly chart is where we determine where we are within the multi-day and daily cycles.   The white 24Hr MA and the daily pivot are the backbone of the MD cycle.  Price will find support for its 24Hr lows at either the 24Hr MA or the daily pivot when price is on the upside of the MD cycle; when we are on the downside of the MD cycle price will find resistance for its 24Hr highs under the 24Hr MA or daily pivot.  The gold Session MA is in turn the backbone of the 24Hr cycle, providing support for price on the way to the 24Hr high and resistance to price on the way to the 24Hr low.

Friday 11/20/15

The daily chart shows price yesterday making a higher low and higher high but closing very slightly lower than Wednesday's candle.  Price today has opened below its daily pivot but is currently trading modestly higher.   We are definitely on the upside of the multi-week cycle, and the longer we remain above the MW MA the more likely it is that we are also on the upside of the multi-month cycle.  A MW high is projected for next Wednesday, and a MM high is not due until late January/early February.

In yesterday's hourly chart commentary it was posited that the 24Hr high had likely been seen several bars earlier and that price should then drop to at least the 24Hr MA and possibly the daily pivot in search of its 24Hr low.   Price indeed had seen its 24Hr high and dropped just below the 24Hr MA for its 24Hr low at noon.  We have traded mostly sideways since that low, but price has recently been able to break above the daily pivot.

We are in the timeframe to see a 24Hr high.  A lower high than yesterday's will mean that yesterday was a multi-day high, and I would then expect price to break below yesterday's 24Hr low and test at least the green MW MA and possibly the blue MD MA in search of the next MD low.  Should today's 24Hr high eclipse yesterday's high, it will be likely that today will be the MD high, and we would then still see a pullback to the MW or MD MA by Monday before rallying into the projected MW high. 

Thursday 11/19/15

The daily chart shows price yesterday making a higher low, higher high and higher close versus Tuesday's candle, with price closing above the MW MA.   Early in today's candle price has opened well above its daily pivot and has made a higher high versus yesterday.  With price trading above the MW MA and the MD MA starting to turn upward, I have marked Friday's low as a multi-week low.  The MW high is not due until next Wednesday, giving price plenty of time to reach new all-time highs before Thanksgiving (and more importantly, before the official start of the holiday shopping season).

The hourly chart shows price finding support on the weekly pivot in yesterday's pre-market trading before breaking through daily pivot resistance and rising throughout the day to close above the MW MA.   Price continued to trade modestly higher in overnight and pre-market trading.

It is unclear whether an intervening 24Hr high and low were seen after Tuesday's 24Hr low, but even if so we are well overdue to see a 24Hr high; with price currently trading below the gold Session MA, it is likely that the high was seen two bars ago.   Price should now trade down to at least the 24Hr MA, and possibly the daily pivot near 2070, in search of its overdue 24Hr low. 

Wednesday 11/18/15

Price yesterday made a higher high but closed little-changed versus Monday's candle.  Price thus far today has traded in a tight range around its daily pivot.  This weak follow-through of Friday's strong rally makes it unclear as to whether Friday was a multi-week low or merely a multi-day low; my belief is that it was the former, and price is now just correcting through a multi-day cycle.   If so, price should soon resume its move higher, with the MW MA at the 2071 area being the next resistance area for price on its way to the projected 11/25 MW high.

The hourly chart shows price yesterday making a 24Hr high just above the MD MA and dropping modestly into its 24Hr low just before the NY close.   Price found support for that low at the weekly pivot, and did so again just a few hours ago.  We have rallied back up to the daily pivot where price seems to be finding resistance, indicating that yesterday was likely a multi-day high.  A 24Hr high is projected for early afternoon, but if we are on the downside of the MD cycle then it is possible that the daily pivot will provide resistance for an earlier-than-projected 24Hr high.  If the weekly pivot can continue to provide support for the next 24Hr low (and likely MD low) it would be a bullish indication that last week was indeed a MW (and perhaps MM) low.

Tuesday 11/17/15 - Be long or be wrong?

The daily chart shows price yesterday making a lower low but higher high and sharply higher close versus Friday's candle.  Price today has opened above the daily pivot and is currently trading above the MD MA.

We were in the timeframe to see a multi-month low and overdue to see a multi-week low and multi-day low; Friday was unquestionably a multi-day low, but much work remains to confirm that it was also a MW and MM low.  If price can continue to trade above the MD MA and turn that average upward, it will confirm that we are on the upside of the MW cycle.  If it can trade above the MW MA and turn that average upward, it will confirm that we are on the upside of the MM cycle.  The next MW high is projected for 11/25, and the next MM high is projected for late January/early February.   I expect the next MM high to be an all-time high for the market.

The hourly chart shows price making a multi-day low Friday and then finding temporary resistance at the daily pivot before the open yesterday.  While we were set up for yet another potential trend day down if the MD low was still ahead of us, I felt that there was a good chance that Friday was a multi-day low and that at worst we would see a double-bottom of Friday's low. It was mentioned that should we break through the daily pivot it would be sign that the MD low was behind us and would likely start a sharp rally.  Price did exactly that, rising throughout the day and eclipsing the weekly pivot.

Price corrected sideways overnight, and it is unclear whether a 24Hr high and low were seen during this period.  We are in the timeframe for a 24Hr high to be seen, unless my designations are wrong and a 24Hr high was seen in overnight trading (this is possible as I have a low confidence level in my current designations).  We are also in the timeframe to see a MD high, and the MD MA or MW MA would be logical places to find resistance to put in that high.   If we are on the upside of the MW and MM cycles, however, the multi-day cycle could extend in time (and often be indiscernible due to the strength of the higher-timeframe cycles).   If Friday was merely a MD low and we are still on the downside of the MW and MM cycles, then price should find resistance at this level for a 24Hr and MD high and then trade sharply lower to take out Friday's low over the next few days.  I expect the former scenario to occur and that any pullbacks will be shallow and should be used to get long.

Monday 11/16/15

The monthly chart shows price mid-way through November having made a higher low and higher high versus October's candle but currently trading below October's close.  Price is testing its monthly pivot and trading just above the MM and MY MAs. This is a crucial test for the market, as the ability after the August lows to climb back above these MAs is a key point in the argument that price is now on the upside of the multi-year cycle.   If these MAs now fail to provide support for price it will weaken that argument, but should price find support here and move higher it will help confirm that the August lows were multi-year lows.

The weekly chart shows price last week making a lower high and lower low and close versus the prior week's candle.  Price closed well below its weekly pivot and on monthly pivot support. Early in this week's candle we have thus far opened below the new weekly pivot and are currently testing the MM MA.  This is behavior indicative of price being on the downside of the multi-month cycle.  We are in the timeframe to see a multi-month low, and the monthly pivot, MM MA and MY MA confluence area is a logical place for that low to be found.

As mentioned above, should price find support at this level for a multi-month low, it would further bolster the idea that price is on the upside of the multi-year cycle.  We should then expect price to reach new all-time highs before finding its next multi-month high due in late January/early February.   This is my current expectation; obviously, if price is unable to find support in this area and continues to trade lower, it will force me to reassess where price is in the multi-year cycle.

The daily chart shows price last week making a Monday high and Friday low, typical bearish behavior with price on the downside of the multi-week cycle.   Price today has opened below its daily pivot but is little-changed versus Friday as we try to find support at the monthly pivot/MM MA confluence area mentioned on Friday.

We are overdue for price to find its multi-week low, and this is the logical place for that low to be seen.  A multi-week high is projected for 11/25, but if the upcoming MW low is also a MM low then I would expect the MW high to extend longer in time.   As mentioned last week, the next swing low on the daily chart is very likely the MW low with the probability of also being a MM low; this offers a very high risk:reward trade to get long using whatever buy trigger one prefers with a stop just below the swing low. 

The hourly chart shows price on Friday making an early morning 24Hr high well below the 24Hr MA and daily pivot.  As mentioned in Friday's blog, with a 24Hr low projected for after Friday's close, we were set up to see a second straight trend day down; price did not disappoint, trading sharply lower and slightly below the targeted 2017 area mentioned that morning.

We have traded modestly higher during overnight trading, but price appears to have found strong resistance at the daily pivot in the timeframe for price to be seeing a 24Hr high.  This indicates that price remains on the downside of the multi-day cycle, and with a 24Hr low again projected for after the close the potential for yet another trend day down exists.  However, with price overdue for a multi-day and multi-week low and in the timeframe to see a multi-month low (and trading near higher-timeframe support levels), I am reluctant to call for another trend day lower.  While certainly a possibility, I would not be surprised to see price instead make an early higher 24Hr low or a double-bottom with Friday's low and then rally as price will then be on the upside of the MD, MW, and likely MM cycles.  A break of the overnight high will likely signal that the MD low has been seen and should be followed by a sharp rally this week.  

Friday 11/13/15

Yesterday price made a lower high and lower low as it continued on the downside of the multi-week cycle. Just as the rolling over of the blue MD MA (along with a lower multi-day high) is an indication that the multi-week high has been seen, the rolling over of the green MW MA is an indication that the multi-month high has been seen (along with a lower multi-week high); we have seen neither a lower MW high nor the downturn of the MW MA, but the MW MA has flattened out and will roll over within days unless price quickly rallies back above it.

If we are on the downside of the multi-month cycle, price will likely test the monthly pivot/MM MA confluence area at the 2017 area before finding its multi-month low.  My current expectation is that price will indeed find support at this level and then we will once again be on the upside of the MW and MM cycles; a new all-time high should be reached during this next upswing of the MM cycle.

The hourly chart shows price making a 24Hr high under daily pivot/24Hr MA resistance before yesterday's market open and dropping throughout the day - a trend day down that was posited in yesterday's blog.   It appears that price saw a feeble 24Hr high overnight which came well below daily pivot/24Hr MA resistance.   A 24Hr low is projected for after the close, so once again, with price on the downside of the daily, multi-week and likely multi-month cycles, we are set up to see another trend day down.

We are overdue to see a MD low, overdue to see a MW low, and in the timeframe to see a MM low.  In an ideal scenario, price will drop sharply today to test the MM MA/monthly pivot where support for all of these cycle lows will be found.   While the real world development will surely be messier and more confusing, the key takeaway is that the next MD low should provide a good risk/reward entry for a move to new highs.

Thursday 11/12/15

Price yesterday made a higher low and higher high versus Tuesday's candle but closed lower after finding resistance at the weekly pivot.  With price today taking out Monday's low, it is obvious that price is continuing on the downside of the multi-week cycle.  We are overdue for a MW low to be seen, and the longer overdue and the further below the weekly pivot and MW MA price gets makes it more likely that price is also on the downside of the multi-month cycle. There is still a decent chance that the MM high has not been seen yet, but price needs to find a MW low and regain the MD MA in the next couple of days if we are to believe that price is still on the upside of the MM cycle.

The hourly chart shows price making its 24Hr (and multi-day) high under MD MA resistance before the NY open yesterday and falling throughout the day.  Price found its 24Hr low just after the close and rallied overnight to make an early 24Hr high under 24Hr MA/daily pivot resistance. The next 24Hr low is not projected until after the close, so we could have another trend day down on the downside of the daily, multi-day, and multi-week cycles.

We have traded just below Monday's MD low, indicating that price is still searching for its overdue MW low.  Price is already below the weekly pivot and MW MA which hints that we are also on the downside of the multi-month cycle.  If so, price would be expected to test the monthly pivot and MM MA around 2017.  If we are still on the upside of the MM cycle then I would expect a multi-day low to be found today or tomorrow which will also be a multi-week low. While the steeper correction to the monthly pivot would obviously provide a better buy point, I believe that the next MD low will provide an excellent opportunity to get long for a move to all-time highs.

Wednesday 11/11/15

Price closed slightly higher yesterday after finding support for the second straight day on the green MW MA.  Price today has opened above its daily pivot and is currently testing the MD MA and weekly pivot from below.   If price can regain the weekly pivot and trade higher the next few days, it will indicate that Monday was a multi-week low.  Further, it would likely mean that we do have one more multi-week cycle (and likely new all-time highs) before the multi-month high is seen.  Obviously, a turn lower from here would instead mean that the MW low has yet to be seen and will leave the door open for the possibility that we are also on the downside of the multi-month cycle.

The hourly chart shows price yesterday making a late morning 24Hr low and then trading higher for the remainder of the day and through overnight trading.  The higher 24Hr low confirms Monday's low as a multi-day low, but as mentioned above it is not yet known whether it was also a multi-week low.  Price is overdue to see a 24Hr high, and price is currently retreating from the MD MA, a logical place for the 24Hr high to have been seen.  Until the gold Session MA is broken and turns lower, however, we cannot assume that the 24Hr high has been seen.

A 24Hr low is projected for late morning.  If price is still on the upside of the multi-day cycle then support for the 24Hr low should be found on the 24Hr MA or daily pivot. We are already in the timeframe for a multi-day high to be seen, however, so it is possible that today's 24Hr high will also be a MD high.  Thus, a break below the daily pivot today would be a strong signal that price is on the downside of the MD cycle and that the MW low may still be in front of us; support at the 24Hr MA/daily pivot and a move above the MD MA/weekly pivot would indicate an elongated MD cycle and strengthen the argument that Monday was also a MW low.

Tuesday 11/10/15

The daily chart shows price yesterday making a lower high and lower low versus Friday's candle with price finally breaking below the MD MA and turning that average lower.  Price thus far today has opened below its daily pivot and is trading modestly lower from yesterday's close.

This indicates that last Tuesday was indeed a multi-week high and that price is on the downside of the MW cycle, but it remains to be seen whether it was also a multi-month high; price found support yesterday on the MW MA, and if it can do so again today and close higher it would leave open the possibility that price is still on the upside of the MM cycle.   It should be noted that we are already slightly past due for a MW low to be seen, and the MW MA currently being tested is a logical place to find support for that low.  Trading below the MW MA and weekly pivot would mean that the MM high has also been seen, and we would then expect price to test the monthly pivot or MM MA as it seeks out its MM low.

The hourly chart shows price yesterday falling sharply into its early afternoon 24Hr low, just one bar past projection.   A 24Hr high was seen overnight under daily pivot resistance and price again broke lower.   The 24Hr low is projected for early afternoon, and we are overdue for a multi-day low to be seen.   It is possible that yesterday was the MD low, in which case we should see an early, higher 24Hr low, but until price breaks above the gold Session MA and pulls that average upward, Session MA resistance is to be shorted.

Monday 11/9/2015

The monthly chart shows price in October having made a higher low and higher high and closing above all long-term MAs and pivots.  Price in November has opened above its daily pivot and has thus far made a higher low and higher high versus last month.  This behavior would indicate that price made a multi-year low in August and is now on the upside of the multi-year cycle.   If so, the odds strongly favor a new all-time high this month or next.

The weekly chart shows price last week making a higher low and higher high as price continued on the upside of the multi-month cycle.   Price early in this week's candle has opened above its weekly pivot and is currently little changed from last week's close.

This week is the projection for the multi-month low, and there is no evidence that we have seen the MM high yet.  Until price can break below the MW MA and turn that average lower, we must assume that price will continue higher.   As mentioned in the last two Monday blog entries, I find it likely that price will reach new all-time highs before starting a correction into its multi-month low.

The daily chart shows price last week with a rare Monday low/Tuesday high scenario.  While we ended the week on a three-day losing streak, price continued to find support on the MD MA, indicating that we are still on the upside of the multi-week cycle.    Price today has thus far opened above its daily pivot and is little changed versus Friday's close but is currently trading slightly below the daily pivot, the MD MA and the new weekly pivot.

We are overdue to see a multi-week high, so much so that we are now also overdue to see the multi-week low.   It is possible that last Tuesday was the MW high, as the MD MA has started to flatten out, but price shows a reluctance to do anything more than correct sideways.  Given the overdue nature of the multi-month high, I would have expected the next MW high to also be a MM high, but the current behavior seems to indicate that price is correcting sideways into its MW low while still on the upside of the MM cycle.   If so, I would expect one more MW high to be seen before price finds its MM high and corrects more sharply in search of the MM low.  In this scenario, new all-time highs should be seen before Thanksgiving.

The hourly chart shows price on Friday making a 24Hr high at daily pivot resistance and falling into its 24Hr low just two bars later.  Price was able to regain the MD MA by the close of trading Friday but appears to have made a lower half-span 24Hr high in overnight trading and is currently trading back below the MD MA as well as the new weekly pivot.  This behavior seems to indicate that price may be on the downside of the MW cycle.

We are slightly overdue for a MW low to be seen, and slightly overdue for a MD low to be seen as well, so it is possible that Friday's low will prove to be a MD and MW low.  A 24Hr low is projected for noon today, so we will see if price will attempt to retest or take out Friday's low by then.   If price is able to trade above the 24Hr MA/daily pivot, it will indicate that the 24Hr low has been seen and also indicate that Friday's low was a MD low and possibly a MW low.

Friday 11/6/2015

The daily chart shows price yesterday making a lower low and lower high but slightly higher close versus Wednesday's candle.  Price today has thus far made a slightly lower low and is trading below the MD MA.  Tuesday was definitely a multi-day high, but it is still uncertain whether it was also a multi-week high and possibly even the overdue multi-month high.

The MD MA is starting to flatten out with today's action (though that could easily change by the close if price rallies), a hint that the MW high has been seen.  While a slight bend in the MA was all that the downturn of the last MW cycle could muster, I would expect a more normal MW cycle this time which would involve price testing the weekly pivot or MW MA along with  a full downturn in the MD MA.  Should price close today at the low of the week and below the MD MA, the odds will be high that the MW high is behind us.

The hourly chart shows price yesterday making a 24Hr high before the NY open and dropping sharply into its 24Hr low just 3 hourly bars later.  Price found support on the MD MA for that low, but was unable to reclaim the 24Hr MA during the rest of the day.  Overnight trading saw a squeezing of price between 24Hr MA/daily pivot resistance and MD MA support, until the strong payrolls number saw a large drop which took out yesterday's low.

Large news-related swings often distort the hourly and daily cycle, and I often find that I have to ignore their large wicks in determining 24Hr highs and lows.   It appears that price saw a 24Hr high this candle, exactly 24 bars after yesterday's high, but I would like to see another hourly bar or two play out to feel more comfortable with that assertion.   A 24Hr low is projected for late morning, and the next 24Hr low will likely also be a multi-day low.  Should price break lower, support would likely be found at the weekly pivot and MW MA confluence area.  A recovery of the MD MA would likely mean that the 24Hr low and MD low have been seen and traders should then look to trade from the long side for the remainder of the day.

Thursday 11/5/2015

Price yesterday made a higher low but lower high and close versus Tuesday, and thus far today has opened below its daily pivot but is currently trading above it.  It appears that Tuesday was a multi-day high; the multi-week high was projected for yesterday, but until price trades below the blue MD MA and turns that average downward we must assume that price has another multi-day cycle to go before the MW (and MM) high is seen.  As mentioned in yesterday's blog, I do not think this market finds its multi-month high before setting new all-time highs.

The hourly chart shows price yesterday making a slightly lower 24Hr high just before the NY open and then trading below the 24Hr MA and daily pivot.  This behavior indicates that price was on the downside of the multi-day cycle, and I have marked Tuesday as the MD high.  Once again price was unable to reach the MD MA before finding its 24Hr low, and with price recently breaking through daily pivot resistance, it is possible that we are once again on the upside of the multi-day cycle.  A 24Hr high is projected for just before the NY open, but where price finds its 24Hr low (projected for early afternoon) will do more to confirm whether we are on the upside or downside of the MD cycle; a higher 24Hr low on 24Hr MA/daily pivot support would confirm yesterday was a MD low, while obviously a lower 24Hr low today would mean that it was not.

Consistent with my belief above, should price find support on the daily pivot for its 24Hr low this afternoon, I believe it will be an excellent time to trade on the long side for a move to new highs in coming days.

Wednesday 11/4/2015

Price yesterday made a higher low, higher high and higher close versus Monday's candle as price continued on its relentless march along the upside of the MW and MM cycles.  Today is the projected date for the MW high, and we are overdue for a MM high.  Until price manages to close below the MD MA for consecutive days and turn that average downward, however, we must continue to assume that the MW high remains in front of us.

With price this close to all-time highs, I expect stocks to eclipse the May/July highs before finding the multi-month high.  Whether the Fed's ZIRP was intended to inflate asset prices or that was just a side effect, they are certainly concerned with the anemic economic growth displayed during this entire recovery.  All-time market highs would certainly help consumer confidence to some extent as we head into the heart of the consumer spending season.  A turn lower here just a few points shy from new highs, however, would bring about talk of a triple-top and fears of a substantial decline ahead.  It is easy to see which news headline would be preferable to everyone.

The hourly chart shows price yesterday making a 24Hr high before the close then correcting only slightly into an early 24Hr low on daily pivot support.  With a 24Hr high not due until near the close, I would expect yesterday's high to be eclipsed by day's end, but a double-top with yesterday's high is possible if today will end up being the MW high.   In any case, until Session MA support is broken, trades today should be taken to the long side.

I suggest readers of this blog review the hourly charts from the September "retest" low forward to see the repeating signs of strength the market has shown on the upside of the multi-month and new multi-year cycles.  Right translated cycle peaks, weak corrections into 24Hr lows, and multi-day lows made well above MD MA support have all been seen numerous times. The same strength was shown on the daily chart with the weak correction into a multi-week low, of course, but there are always more examples to be found on intraday charts versus daily charts for a given period.   The concepts are all the same, however, so the knowledge learned from the hourly charts can be applied to the daily and weekly charts.  

Tuesday 11/3/2015

The daily chart shows price yesterday opening below its daily pivot and making a lower low versus Friday's candle, but finding support on the MD MA and weekly pivot and rallying for a higher high and higher close.   Price today has opened above its daily pivot and thus far is little changed from yesterday.

Price continues riding MD MA support on the upside of the multi-week cycle.   The MW high is projected for tomorrow, and while Wednesday highs often mark MW highs, the projected date carries zero weight for investing or trading purposes.  When price breaks below the MD MA and turns that average downward, we will know the MW high has been seen.  Given the overdue nature of the MM high, it is very likely that it will also mean the MM high has been seen. This should see price begin a decent-sized correction, but it cannot be emphasized enough that the best trade will be going long once the multi-month low has been seen.

The hourly chart shows price yesterday easily breaking above the 24Hr MA and daily pivot and rising strongly throughout the day.  This trend day up indicates that the early A.M. low was a multi-day low.    I have added an intervening 24Hr low on daily pivot support and 24Hr high below 24Hr MA resistance, both occurring on Friday; there were arguments against these being a 24Hr low and high when I contemplated them yesterday, but the subsequent price action argues in favor of the designations.

We are in the timeframe to see a 24Hr low; price is currently attempting to find support for this low on the 24Hr MA, and this MA or the daily pivot below are logical places for the 24Hr low to be seen.  Since we should have at least one more 24Hr cycle high before seeing a MD high and the MW high is not projected until tomorrow, price should be able to take out yesterday's high by the close.  When price is able to trade above the gold Session MA and turn that average upward, it will indicate that the 24Hr low has been seen and that MA will then provide support for price the remainder of the day.

Monday 11/2/2015

The monthly chart shows October having made a higher low and higher high versus September's candle and closing strongly above all relevant pivots and MAs.  Price has opened the November candle above its new monthly pivot.  All of this is action indicative of price being on the upside of the MY MA; we have not yet seen a higher multi-month low to confirm this, but that is only because price refuses to correct into a multi-month low.

The weekly chart shows price last week having made a higher low, higher high and higher close versus the prior week as price continues on the upside of the MM cycle.  This is the tenth weekly candle since the August low; we are overdue for price to make a MM high, and a MM low is projected for next week's candle.  This rally is similar to that which was seen after the 2011 multi-year low (shown below the weekly chart), which saw price rise for 11 weeks after the MY low before seeing its MM high.  This chart should emphasize to people that while nimble shorts may be able to make money into the eventual decline into the MM low, the real money will be made going long after price finds that low.

The daily chart shows price last week making a Tuesday low and Friday high, normal bullish action on the upside of the MW cycle.  Price thus far today has opened below its daily pivot and has made a lower high and lower low versus Friday, indicating that price is likely on the downside of the multi-day cycle.  

A MW cycle high is projected for Wednesday, but until the MD MA ceases to provide support we must assume that the MW high has yet to be seen.  It should also be noted that due the extreme right-translation of the last MW cycle, the MW low is projected for just one day later on Thursday.  Since it is likely that the next MW high will also be a MM high, however, I would expect the MW low to extend in duration.

The hourly chart shows price making a 24Hr (and multi-day high) early Friday A.M. and falling throughout the day. Price appears to have made a 24Hr low in overnight trading below weekly pivot and MD MA support, but has quickly traded back above those levels, indicating that the overnight low may also have been a multi-day low.

We are overdue for a 24Hr high to be seen, and the daily pivot would be a logical place for that high to be seen, especially if we are still on the downside of the MD cycle.   If we are instead on the upside of the MD cycle, price could eclipse this level before making its MD high, then find support at the pivot or 24Hr MA as price corrects back into its 24Hr low.