Thursday 4/30/2015

The daily chart shows price yesterday matching Tuesday's high and making a higher low but closing below the daily and weekly pivots and the MD MA. Price today has opened below the daily pivot and made a lower low by one tick and is trying to find support on the MW MA. The action thus far today has flattened out the blue MD MA; unless price rallies today to turn the MD MA upward, it would indicate that Monday was a very early multi-week high. While it would be a higher MW high that the prior one, it would again call raise questions as to what is going on with the either the multi-month or multi-year cycles to be causing the continuing half-span shifts of the multi-week cycle.

So far, the Monday high/Tuesday low scenario is still in play for the week and as I mentioned yesterday that is highly unlikely to stand by week's end. Whether we finish with a bearish Monday high/Friday low or a bullish Tuesday low/Friday high (Thursday can be substituted for Friday in either scenario and the bearish/bullish implications would be the same) will help clear up the question of where we are in the multi-week cycle.

The hourly chart shows price making a 24Hr low early afternoon yesterday below the green MW MA and rallying for two bars where it made its 24Hr high below the combined resistance of the white 24Hr MA, the daily pivot, and the blue MD MA. Price overnight twice found resistance at the daily pivot for session highs before dropping again and making a slightly lower low than yesterday's 24Hr low. All of this indicates that we are still on the downside of the multi-day cycle. The MD cycle low is projected for tomorrow after the close, but higher timeframe support such as the MW MA on the daily chart could put this low in early.

Price is currently rising into its session high to test the 24Hr MA and MW MA. If we are stil on the downside of the 24Hr cycle, price will find resistance there then retest the overnight lows. If the overnight low was the 24Hr low, the fact that it is a double-bottom with yesterday's 24Hr low (only one tick difference) could mean that that it is also a multi-day low and price should then be able to rally above daily pivot. Given the commentary above in the daily chart segment, I would also then expect price to take out Monday's high by tomorrow's close. Of course, if the overnight low was not the 24Hr low,then price will make a lower session high this hourly bar or the next and then head down to match or break the overnight lows. 

Wednesday 4/29/2015

The daily chart shows price yesterday making a lower high and lower low but closing above the daily pivot, weekly pivot, MD MA and upper triangle boundary. I mentioned in yesterday's blog when price was testing the green MW MA that I was willing to be let the day play out to see if price recovered above the MD MA and weekly pivot; price did exactly that and thus the MD MA and weekly pivot, which are the backbone of the multi-week cycle, continud their role of "soft" support.

Price today has opened above the daily pivot but has traded down once more to test the MD MA and weekly pivot. The week is currently facing a Monday high/Tuesday low scenario, which is highly unlikely to be maintained. The Monday low/Friday high scenario typical to bullish moves is a bit of a catchall phrase that was coined by a knowledgeable and generous trader who observed that in an upward cycle price will make its low early in the week (Monday or Tuesday) and find its high late in the week (Thursday or Friday). The opposite is true in a downward cycle. Wednesday rarely marks the high or low for a week, and when it does it often marks the turn of a multi-week cycle (or larger). With a MW high projected for the middle of next week, the odds favor price rallying to new highs by Friday.

The hourly chart shows price yesterday finding its 24Hr low after a spike below (but a close above) the green MW MA. Price rallied above the daily pivot to put in a lower 24Hr high just after the NY close, which confirmed Monday's high as a multi-day high. We are past the projection for the MD low; it is likely that yesterday's low was the MD low, but a higher 24Hr low (projected for just after the NY open) is required to confirm this. Once again, it would be nice to see the weekly pivot (currently being penetrated) or the MW MA provide support for this low. The next MD high is projected for tomorrow afternoon.

Tuesday 4/28/2015

The daily chart shows price yesterday making a bearish "outside" day as we saw a higher high but a lower low and a close below the daily pivot. Today price has opened below the daily pivot and is currently trading below the weekly pivot and MD MA. We are obviously on the downside of the multi-day cycle, but one would expect the MD MA or weekly pivot to provide support unless we are also on the downside of the multi-week cycle. Given that the MW high was not projected until June, this resurrects concerns of yet another half-span shift of cycles. Before getting too worked up about this, however, I will be willing to let the day play out and see if price can find support on the green MW MA and perhaps close back above the "soft" support of the MD MA, weekly pivot, and the prior resistance of the upper triangle boundary.

The hourly chart shows price making an earlier-than-projected 24Hr high then falling steadily into the NY close. Price found support for about 12 hourly bars in the area of the MD MA and weekly pivot before breaking that support and dropping down to the MW MA just one bar ago. We are overdue for the 24Hr low and the multi-day low; the MW MA would be a good place to find support for each of those lows. If the 24Hr low has been made, price will eclipse the gold Session MA and turn it upward as price searches for its 24Hr high which is projected for late morning. If the MD low has also been made, price should be able to eclipse the MD MA and preferably the daily pivot before finding the next 24Hr high, though it is possible that another higher 24Hr low will need to be seen before price can start to turn the 24Hr MA higher.

Monday 4/27/2015 New all-time highs, so what's next? New all-time highs.

The monthly chart shows price trading above the monthly pivot and pink MM MA and making a higher low and higher high than the prior candle. Most importantly, price was finally able to take out February's high, easing concerns that the multi-year cycle had already rolled over. The MY cycle high is projected for this month, so those concerns could creep back into the analysis again soon.  It is always important to remember that the projections are only expectations based on an average of recent cycle lengths.  While actual highs and lows often land exactly on projection, they often land earlier or later than projected (as we have seen frequently during the recent triangle pattern trading).  Now that price has exited the triangle, I would expect to see cycle lengths return to their norms and higher timeframe support and resistance areas to regain their importance.  Thus, I expect the pink MM MA and the monthly pivot to support price until the multi-year cycle top is in.  This behavior will be far more important than any time projection.

The weekly chart shows price last week having made a higher low and higher high versus the prior week and closing above the upper boundary of the triangle pattern. I will leave the triangle boundary lines on the weekly chart just to see if they provide support for the next pullback. Price early in this week's candle has opened above the daily pivot and made a higher high, behavior associated with being on the upside of the multi-month cycle. The MM high is not projected until mid-June.

The daily chart shows price last week finding support early in the week on the blue MD MA before moving up at the end of the week to new all-time highs. The MD MA has now turned upward, following price as it searches for its next MW high, which is projected for 5/6/15.  Until that high is found, price should continue to find support on the MD MA and/or weekly pivot.

The hourly chart shows price having made what appears to be a 24Hr low at 4:00am this morning on daily pivot support, behavior associated with being on the upside of the multi-day cycle. The MD high is well overdue; in fact, the MD low is projected for early afternoon today, near the 1:00pm projection for the next 24Hr high. It is reasonable to expect that the next 24Hr high will also be a multi-day high. If it is, price will break white 24Hr MA support and daily pivot support before moving down to test the weekly pivot and/or blue MD MA in the 2101 area.

  

Friday 4/24/15

The daily chart shows price yesterday making a higher low and higher high, closing above the upper boundary of the triangle pattern and making an all-time high in the process. It was mentioned yesterday that the Monday low/Tuesday high situation was extremely unlikely to hold and that price would either eclipse Tuesday's high or drop below Monday's low. Price today has opened above the daily pivot and tested that pivot but is currently trading higher.  

With the new high, I have marked last Friday's low as the multi-week low. This was a higher MW low, and it was mentioned in Tuesday's commentary that if the MW low was behind us price had no excuse not to make all-time highs in the days/weeks ahead. The flattening of the pink MM MA still raises some concerns, but with price now behaving as if it is on the upside of both the MM and MW cycles, there is every reason to expect price to continue higher. The MM high is not projected for another 7 weeks, and the MW high is not projected until May 6. 

The hourly chart shows price finding support on the MW MA for the 24Hr low yesterday before the NY open. My concerns that we had made an early MD high and thus any rallies would be capped by the white 24Hr MA were quickly dashed as price broke the MA convincingly then found support on it before surging to all-time highs. Price overnight found support on the 24Hr MA and daily pivot for the 24Hr low and is riding gold Session MA support higher. 

The MD high was projected for early this morning. On the upside of the MM and MW cycles, the MD high can easily extend in time. Failure to take out this morning's highs during the next Session high due near the close would indicate that a lower 24Hr high, and by association the MD high, is behind us. If so, price will will break the Session MA and 24Hr MA and likely test the blue MD MA as it searches for the next MD low projected for Monday near the open.

Thursday 4/23/2015

The daily chart shows price yesterday making a lower high and lower low but higher close versus yesterday. Price today has opened above the daily pivot and thus far made a lower high and higher low. Price appears to be finding support lately on the green MW MA, which would indicate that we are on the upside of the multi-month cycle. The blue MD MA has provided support the last two days, which would indicate that we are on the upside of the multi-week cycle. The result should be price making frequent higher highs, yet price cannot break through the upper triangle boundary. This raises the concern that the multi-year high was seen in February; the fact that the pink MM MA has turned flat lends credence to this concern. If so, price should eventually have a bearish resolution to the triangle pattern. A breakout to new highs is the only thing that can put that fear to bed. 

We are past the projection for the MW low, and while price does appear to be finding support on the MD MA, the MD MA itself is moving sideways, making it difficult to say for sure that the MW low is behind us.

It is worth noting that we are in a Tuesday high/Monday low situation thus far for the week. This is highly unlikely to stand for the week, so by tomorrow's close I would fully expect price to either eclipse Tuesday's high or drop below Monday's low.

The hourly chart shows price making a half-span 24Hr high twelve bars after the prior 24Hr high. price then dropped below the 24Hr MA and MD MA briefly before finding support on the green MW MA. This may have been a 24Hr low, but a higher session low near the open would be needed to confirm this. 

 

A multi-day high is projected for early tomorrow morning, but I am open to the possibility that yesterday's early 24Hr high was also an early MDH; if so, I would expect the white 24Hr MA to provide resistance for any up move today.

Wednesday 4/21/2015

The daily chart shows price yesterday making a higher high and higher low versus the prior bar but finding resistance at the upper triangle boundary and closing well off of the highs. Price today has opened below the daily pivot and thus far made a lower high and lower low versus yesterday. It was mentioned in yesterday's commentary that the blue MD MA had turned up, and that if price could maintain the gains it would indicate that Friday's low was likely a multi-week low; as can be seen, price did not maintain those gains, and the MD MA has flattened out again.

Today is the actual time projection for the MW low, but this low may already have been seen or may extend further into the future. As always, price action trumps projections. If the MW low is behind us, price should find support at the blue weekly pivot (2081.83). If the MW low has yet to be found, price will retest Friday's low and either make a double bottom or a lower low.

The hourly chart shows price yesterday making an earlier-than-projected 24Hr high, followed by a lower session high a perfect 6 bars later at the NY open. Price then traded down until it found support for its 24Hr low on daily pivot support. Price made an attempt to get through daily pivot resistance this morning but was rejected, making a lower 24Hr high a perfect 24 bars after the prior 24Hr high. Price has found support this morning on the weekly pivot and is bouncing into its session high. With a 24Hr low projected for late afternoon and a multi-day low projected for tomorrow morning, it remains to be seen whether the weekly pivot can continue to support price for the next session low due early afternoon. Failure to do so will likely bring about the retest of Friday's low mentioned above, while a higher session low would likely mean the MD low has been seen and price should retest the upper triangle boundary again.

Tuesday 4/21/2015

The daily chart shows price yesterday opening below the daily pivot on new weekly pivot support and closing above the daily pivot at MD MA resistance. Price today has opened above the daily pivot and made a higher high, turning the MD MA back up in the process. If price can maintain these gains and keep the MD MA turned up by day's end, then it would indicate that Friday's low was an early multi-week low. If we are indeed coming out of a MW low, the bulls have no excuse not to finally break through the upper boundary of the triangle and make all-time highs in the days/weeks ahead. Failure to do so would indicate the multi-year cycle peaked in February and is rolling over.

The hourly chart shows price making a 24Hr high yesterday above the blue MD MA before trading down and finding support for the 24Hr low in the area of the 24Hr MA and daily pivot. Price has since rallied back and taken out yesterday's high. We are currently in the timeframe for price to make a session high; with the 24Hr high not projected until noon, price should eclipse this morning's high before finding its session high. Failure to do so would indicate that the 24Hr high is already in, and we would then expect price to trade below the gold Session MA in search of its 24Hr low.

We are currently in the window for the projected multi-day high. Coming out of a multi-day low and possible multi-week low, it would not be shocking to see the MD high extend in time; given that we are at the upper triangle boundary that has provided resistance to price for several weeks, however, one must be prepared for yet another pull back into the next MD low projected for Thursday.

Monday 4/20/2015

The monthly chart shows price trading above the monthly pivot (represented by the dots above, below or in each bar) and above the upsloping MM MA - bullish behavior. The inability to get above the February highs is the only negative in the chart; with two more trading weeks left in the month, there is plenty of time to either eliminate the sole negative or to add to it.

The weekly chart shows price last week having made a higher high than the prior week but closing lower and below the weekly pivot on green MW MA support. Price this week opened just below the weekly pivot and is currently trading above it.  

Price still appears to be capped by the upper boundary of the triangle in which price has been trapped. The green MW MA and pink MM MA are at about the same area and provided support for price last week and thus far in the brief trading this week. While this generally argues that price is on the upside of the multi-month and/or multi-year cycles, I am reluctant to say this with certainty given that those same MAs have failed to support price not too long ago.  

The MM low is projected for mid-May, but it is possible that this low occurred early in a half-span shift similar to the early MM high that appeared in February. If the low has been made already, it makes sense that price will continue to find support on the rising MW MA as price searches for its next MM high. The only reason price should have trouble attaining new all-time highs is if the multi-month or multi-year cycle has peaked and rolled over. Until there is some evidence of this in the way of a lower MMH or lower MML, we should anticipate the break out from the triangle should be to the upside.  

The daily chart shows price last week making a Wednesday high and Friday low. Wednesday highs often mark multi-week highs, and this one is no different as the price trading below the downsloping blue MD MA is behavior associated with being on the downside of the MW cycle. The MW low is projected for this Wednesday, though higher timeframe support such as the pink MM MA or monthly pivot could provide support to put this low in early. Until the low is in, price should find resistance at the blue MD MA.

The hourly chart shows price selling off hard on Friday and making a 24Hr low on monthly pivot support. A MD low was projected for today, but it is possible that low was seen on Friday. Price has risen above the 24Hr MW and daily pivot in search of the overdue 24Hr high, further reinforcing the idea that the MD low was Friday. A MD high is projected for tomorrow, but that high could just as easily come in earlier or later; if we are still on the upside of the MD cycle, price should find support for its next 24Hr low (projected for late this afternoon) on the confluence of daily pivot, weekly pivot, 24Hr MA and MW MA support. 

Friday 4/17/2015

Yesterday saw price make an inside day versus the prior candlestick, finding support again on the rising MD MA and resistance again at the declining upper triangle boundary. Price today has opened above the daily pivot but has thus far made a lower high and lower low and is currently trading below the MD MA. As to what it means, re-read yesterday's commentary as it all applies again today. Bulls need to see price close above the MD MA to keep alive hopes that price is still on the upside of the MW cycle. Failure to do so would indicate another lower MW high was made and we should expect price to test the MM MA or monthly pivot at a minimum, but most likely a retest of the early April lows.

I should also note that we currently are in a Tuesday low/Wednesday high situation for the week. It has been mentioned several times already in the short re-birth of this blog that Wednesday highs or lows for the week occur infrequently and usually mark multi-week highs or lows. There is still the possibility that price sells off hard today and takes out Tuesday's low, making a more normal (in bearish moves) Friday low for the week. Either case is bearish, unless this is just a very rare Wednesday high with no significance.

The hourly chart shows price making a 24Hr high yesterday an hour before the NY close. This high was essentially a double top with Wednesday's multi-day high, and it came exactly 24 hourly bars after that high. Price bounced along the daily pivot over night before finally breaking this support and selling off sharply through the MD MA. The 24Hr low was projected for one bar ago, and it is possible that low was made one bar earlier, but a higher session low will be needed to confirm this. The blue weekly pivot or green MW MA would be more logical places to find support for this low, but it is possible the test of that support will wait until the next 24Hr low.

Yesterday's hourly chart commentary said the key would be if MD MA support held and how price reacted to the 24Hr MA and daily pivot resistance when searching for its 24Hr high. Things looked good for the bulls when the support did hold and price blasted through resistance, but the overnight fall through MD MA support has put the ball back in the bear's court. The multi-day low is not projected until 4/20, and the MW low is not projected until 4/22. Unless price can regain the MD MA and break back above daily pivot and 24Hr MA resistance, the odds favor a test of the lower targets mentioned above.   

Thursday 4/16/2015

Price yesterday opened above the daily pivot and made a higher low and higher high versus the prior bar. Coming out of a multi-day low, and with a multi-day high projected for tomorrow, price was expected to do this. Today's candlestick shows price opening above the daily pivot, but making a lower high and now trading down to the MD MA; it appear that price made an early multi-day high, just under the March highs and the upper triangle boundary.

What does this mean? Well, it's certainly not the most bullish scenario; coming out of Tuesday's MD low, price had every excuse to finally break out above the March (and February) highs. The early MD high which appears to have occurred yesterday could just be a result of the cycles squeezing price within the triangle. Price could easily find support on the MD MA and continue to lead the moving average upward until the multi-week high is in. However, since we are past the time projection for the MW high, we must again be concerned that the MD high was also a MW high and that we will see price drop into the MW low projected for 4/22. Under more normal circumstances, that drop wold be expected to be contained by the weekly or monthly pivots or the MM MA. Since these higher timeframe areas of support have been ignored during the triangle's unfolding, a more substantial drop toward the bottom triangle boundary cannot be ruled out. So keep an eye on the blue MD MA, if it supports price on a closing basis, the multi-week high still lies ahead of us; if it fails to act as support and rolls over, it will provide resistance into the MW low.

The hourly chart shows price making a 24Hr high before yesterday's NY close and trading mostly sideways overnight before breaking below daily pivot support and dropping down to the MD MA. As mentioned above, this is behavior indicative of being on the downside of the multi-day cycle. We are overdue for a 24Hr low, and the MD MA would be a logical place for price to find support for this low. When the low is in, price will get above the gold session MA and turn it upward as price searches for its 24Hr high projected for late afternoon. The keys here will be the ability of the MD MA to support price for the current 24Hr low, and the interaction of price with the 24Hr MA and daily pivot as price searches for its subsequent 24Hr high. Should price find resistance at the 2098 area (pivot and MA), it would indicate that price is still on the downside of the MD cycle. The next MD low is projected for 4/20.

Wednesday 4/15/2015

Price yesterday opened below the daily pivot and dropped down to test support at the MD MA and the weekly pivot before rallying to close above the daily pivot; it was mentioned yesterday that in a bullish scenario price might find its multi-day low on MD MA support and have at least one more multi-day cycle rise before finding its multi-week high. The first part of this scenario has been fulfilled, now price needs to get through resistance in the 2100 area to make a higher MW high than the March MW high; preferrably, price will also eclipse the February high.

The hourly chart shows price making a series of earlier-than-projected 24Hr highs and lows since Monday's multi-day high. Interestingly, the first 24Hr low after the MD high was 12 hours from the prior low, the next 24Hr low was 18 hours from then; the first 24Hr high after the MD high was 18 hours from that high, and the next high was 12 hours from that. Half-span shifting of the 24Hr cycle (~ 12 hours) is somewhat normal during turns in the MD or MW cycle, but I've not seen the 3/4-span shift nor the alternating of these shifts before. 

Price overnight made a higher 24Hr low on 24Hr MA and daily pivot support and has moved higher to eclipse yesterday's 24Hr high. This is textbook action when price is on the upside of the MD cycle, and thus I have marked Tuesday's low as the multi-day low. The multi-day high is projected for Friday after the close, giving price plenty of time to fulfill the bullish scenario mentioned in the daily commentary. Price is in the time window to be making a session low, but the session cycle runs a normal 5-7 hours (and occasionally 8 hrs) so this test of the gold Session MA could happen after the close. The 24Hr high is projected for 1:00pm, giving time for one more session cycle upswing, but given the 1/2 and 3/4 span shifts mentioned above, I am keeping an eye on the possibility that price rises straight into the 11:00am candle (one bar from now) where it finds its 24Hr high and sells off in search of the next 24Hr low. As usual, price behavior around the Session MA will clue us in- it will support price until the 24Hr high is in, and when the high is in, it will cease to provide support and will roll over and resist price until the 24Hr low is found.

  

Tuesday 4/14/2015

The daily chart shows price yesterday making opening above the daily pivot, making a higher high than the prior candle, but closing down, below the daily pivot. Price thus far today opened below the daily pivot and made a lower low, testing the MD MA from above. This price action is indicative of price being on the downside of the multi-day cycle.

Given that yesterday was also the projection for the multi-week cycle high and that price was near the top boundary of its triangle pattern, we must be open to the possibility that the MD MA will fail to support price; indeed, if yesterday was the MW high, I would expect the usual support of the weekly pivot, monthly pivot, or MM MA would fail to support price as price has been ignoring those levels of support/resistance during the formation of the triangle. Adding to this would be the fact that if yesterday was a MW high, it was lower than the prior March MW high - bearish action that indicates price is on the downside of the multi-month cycle as well. The next MW low is projected for 4/22.

An alternative, and more bullish, scenario is that yesterday was merely a multi-day high, and price will find support for the multi-day low (already past due) on the MD MA. Price will then see at least another multi-day cycle rise as the MW cycle extends in time aided by the upside of the multi-month cycle.

Either of these scenarios is possible, and it will soon become obvious which is correct.

The hourly chart shows price having made a 24Hr high yesterday at the 11:00AM bar, far earlier than projected. Price then declined, making a possible early 24Hr low at the close, then trading up overnight to a possible (and early) 24Hr high just above the daily pivot this morning. Price fell again down to the MD MA where thus far it has found support. 

 With what appears to be a lower 24Hr high and what is definitely a lower 24Hr low, I have marked yesterday's high as the multi-day high. The MD low is already past projection, and the MD MA would be a great place for that low to have been made. Price is currently in the timeframe to make a session high, and the slight kiss of the gold Session MA one bar ago may have been that high. Regardless, price should make another session low late morning; if this is a higher session low, it will mean the 24Hr low (and possibly the MD low) has been made and price should rally to test the 24Hr MA or daily pivot. If the early low is taken out, expect price to test the blue weekly pivot at the 2076.83 area at a minimum before price finds its 24Hr low (which is not projected to occur until late afternoon).

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Monday 4/13/2015

A quick look at the monthly chart - price opened below the monthly pivot but is currently trading above it, and thus far has made a higher low and lower high than last month. This month is the projection for the multi-year top, but that top may have already occurred in February, or may lay out further into the year. While the failure to eclipse the February highs is a warning sign, as long as price finds support on the monthly pivot or rising multi-month MA (MM MA), we must assume that price is still searching for its MY high.

The weekly chart shows price last week making a higher low and higher high, closing back above the monthly pivot. Price this week has opened above its weekly pivot and the green MW MA has turned up. If the week closes with the the MW MA rising, it means that either the March or Early April low was a multi-month low and that we are on the upside of the MM cycle. It is important to remember, however, that if price were to decline this week, the MW MA would remain flat or even bend downward, keeping the status of the MM low in question. A break to new highs answers both questions on the MY and MM cycle, while a turn down to retest the bottom of the triangle would keep both questions alive.

The daily chart shows price last week with the classic bullish Monday low/Friday high scenario, a scenario that plays out so often (along with its bearish sibling the Monday high/Friday low) that I should post a separate blog entry on the subject. Price is riding above the rising blue MD MA in search of its multi-week high, which is projected for today. If we are on the upside of the MM cycle, the MW high can easily extend past projection, giving price ample time to eclipse the March MW high. Failure to do this would mean a lower MW high, action that indicates we are on the downside of the MM cycle. Price thus far today has opened above the daily pivot and made a higher high than the prior bar but is currently trading back down to the pivot.

The hourly chart shows price making a 24Hr high in overnight trading Sunday before turning below the gold Session cycle MA and testing the daily pivot for support. We are past the time projection for the 24Hr low, and that low may have occurred just one bar past projection at the 5:00AM candlestick. A session low is projected for around 10:30AM; if that low is higher than this low, it confirms the 24Hr low is in and price should spend the entire day rising in search of the 24Hr high projected for after the close. A higher session low may already have occurred on daily pivot support just one bar ago; the ability of price to close above the 24Hr MA and turn the Session MA upward would confirm this. A multi-day high is projected for just before the close, and the MD low is projected for shortly after the close, indicative of the right-translated nature of the MD highs during this last MW cycle.

Friday 4/10/2015

The daily chart shows price making a higher low and higher high yesterday, closing solidly above the MM MA and making a high for the week. Today price has thus far opened above the daily pivot and made a new high for the week, giving us a Monday low/Friday high scenario; this scenario was mentioned in yesterday morning's blog and is worth re-reading. Price is currently on the upside of the MW cycle, and the MW high is projected for Monday. There is the possibility that this MW high extends in time if we are also on the upside of the multi-month cycle, and that will likely need to occur if price is going to make a higher MW high (and make a new all-time high in the process). Just as the blue MD MA has turned up out of the MW low and will support price into the eventual MW high, when that high is in the MD MA will get turned down and will become resistance. While the support/resistance role of this moving average (and even the larger timeframe MAs) has lessened greatly during this recent period of sideways tradings, it is still clear how the turns in the blue MD MA have followed the MW highs and lows (I have temporarily thickened the MA to make this easier to see).

The hourly chart is unclear as to the status of past 24Hr highs and lows. The pre-market low of yesterday that had been mentioned as a possible 24Hr low is still a candidate, though price made a lower session low seven hours later; this lower low was the result of a long tail on a candlestick that closed above session MA support however, so I am more tempted to use the prior low as the 24Hr low. Another issue is that unless there has been another 24Hr high since Wednesday morning's 24Hr high, we are approaching 48 hours since the last 24Hr high. Fortunately, one not need obsess over assigning the markers for the 24Hr high and low; price is currently on the upside of the 24Hr cycle and when a more obvious 24Hr high is made, I will work backward to find the intervening 24Hr high (and low). The gold session cycle MA will support price until the 24Hr high is in, then price will drop below the MA and turn it downward as price tests the 24Hr MA, daily pivot, or MD MA for support for the 24Hr low. If we are still on the upside of the multi-day cycle, the white 24Hr MA or daily pivot will hold and price will not test the blue MD MA; the MD high is projected for Monday, the same day as the projected MW high.

Thursday 4/9/2015

The daily chart shows price yesterday opening below the daily pivot, making a lower low and lower high, but closing above the daily pivot and the MM MA. Price thus far today has opened above the daily pivot but is currently trading down, testing the daily pivot and MM and MD MAs. We are currently in a Monday low/Tuesday high situation for the week, one rare enough that it is unlikely to hold for the remainder of the week; this means the odds are very high that price will make a high for the week in the next two days or plummet to take out Monday's low. Given that we are on the upside of the MW cycle (the top of that cycle is projected for 4/13), the odds favor price moving to the upside. The rising blue MD MA should provide support for price today if these new highs for the week are to be made; should the MD MA fail, it opens the possibility that the MM MA provided resistance to bring about an early MW high and Monday's lows would be more vulnerable.

The hourly chart shows price making a 24Hr high yesterday right at the projected time, a lower 24Hr high which confirms Tuesday's high as a MD high. Price gyrated fairly wildly during the afternoon before putting in a lower session high after the close and breaking below the daily pivot and 24Hr MA overnight. It is possible that a 24Hr low was made 4 bars ago- price subsequently rallied above the daily pivot and 24Hr MA and has flattened out the gold session MA. A 24Hr high is projected for the 11:00am bar- the same bar projection for the next session low. The session cycle is typically 5-7 hours in length, so it is possible that the session MA will provide support for an early session low and price will then try to take out yesterday's (and perhaps Tuesday's) high. The MD low was projected for overnight, so if this morning's low was indeed the 24Hr low, it would confirm yesterday's 24Hr low as the MD low and the bulls would have no excuse not to take out this week's high. Failure to do so puts in question the status of the MW cycle as mentioned above.

Wednesday 4/8/2015

The daily chart shows price yesterday opening and closing above the daily pivot, making a higher high but closing below the prior day's close. Price today has opened below the daily pivot. Price appears to be finding resistance at the MM MA; I had mentioned yesterday that I would not put great meaning behind price being able to close above the MM MA, as price has generally disregarded the MA over the last several weeks. At some point, however, price action will return to a more "normal" level of predictability and will start to respect higher timeframe MAs and pivots again. Thus, I cannot completely disregard the potential bearish implications of price finding resistance at the MM MA. A multi-week high is projected for early next week, but if we are on the downside of the multi-year cycle, the high would be expected to come early and underneath MM MA resistance. If we are still on the upside of the MY cycle, price should get above this resistance before finding the MW cycle on (or even after) projection.

Note that daily chart shows the blue MD MA has turned up. This means that price has been on the upside of the multi-week cycle, requiring me to label a MW low. I settled on the April 1st low; despite the low being one tick higher than the prior week's low, and having a higher low, that date was the exact projection for the MW low and the MD MA did not turn up until after that date.

The hourly chart shows price having made a 24Hr high at 11:00AM yesterday, several hours earlier than projection. Price then sold off, making a lower 24Hr low overnight on MW MA and monthly pivot support. The lower 24Hr low would indicate that yesterday's high was a MD high; that price has found resistance at the daily pivot and 24Hr MA this morning also supports that notion. This means the MD high came in much earlier than projection, which is bearish but carries less meaning when price is being whipsawed through a triangle pattern. The MD low is projected for noon tomorrow but of course is subjected to the same issues while in the triangle.

Tuesday 4/7/2015

The daily chart shows price yesterday opening below the daily pivot but making a higher low and higher high versus the prior candlestick, closing above the weekly and monthly pivots in the process. While this is normally bullish behavior, the fact is that price has whipsawed above and below these levels for several weeks now as it languishes in a triangle pattern. Price thus far today has opened above the daily pivot and is testing the underside of the MM MA that halted last week's advance. I will place no special meaning on price closing above this MA, as price ignored it frequently while the triangle pattern developed. A move to new highs is the only bullish thing price can do at this point, and a break below the March lows is the only bearish thing it can do. We are just about at the halfway point from each of these things, and each would require only a two-day move. Meanwhile, the status of the MW low is unclear with a possible low made the late March or perhaps the one-tick higher double bottom of April 1st or perhaps not yet seen. The MW high is projected for next Monday.

The hourly chart shows price yesterday breaking above the daily pivot at the NY open and soaring over 30 points until making its 24Hr high early afternoon. Price appears to have made a 24Hr low overnight well above the daily pivot or 24Hr MA, normally very bullish behavior. I have marked the Good Friday low as a multi-day low, and price coming out of a 24Hr and MD low will often exhibit such bullish behavior, particularly when price is on the upside of the MW cycle. As mentioned above, however, for the past several weeks price has been forming a triangle and does not seem to hold on to bullish or bearish behavior for long. The MD high is projected for around the close of trading tomorrow, plenty of time for price to make new highs if it is so inclined.

A 24Hr high is projected for early afternoon. Price should ride the gold session MA higher and take out yesterday's highs before this high is in. Failure to do so would indicate that yesterday's high was an early MD high, and the triangle pattern would continue.  

Monday 4/6/2015

The monthly chart shows that the March candlestick made a lower high than February, but it closed above its own monthly pivot and above the multi-month MA. The current candle has opened below its monthly pivot and traded lower, but it is still above the MM MA. Notice that the MM MA has turned sideways; while the turning of the MM MA, along with the inability to eclipse the February high, lends credence to the idea that the multi-year cycle is rolling over, we must remember that it is very early in the life of this candle, and a rally could easily turn the MM MA upward again.

The weekly chart shows price last week making a lower high and higher low, closing below the monthly pivot, weekly pivot, and the MM and MW MAs. This is behavior indicative of being on the downside of the multi-month cycle (and arguably the multi-year cycle). Thus far, however, we still have not taken out the mid-March low. Price is correcting more or less sideways, forming a small rectangle within a larger triangle. This occurs when the cycles of two frames are at odds with each other, and the price breakout occurs in the direction of the larger timeframe. If the MY cycle is indeed rolling over and price is being supported by the last vestiges of the upside of the MM cycle, then price will soon accelerate to the downside when the MM cycle turns down. If the MY cycle is still on the upswing, then price could merely be showing the effects of the downside of the MM cycle, and when the MM cycle low is found, price should retest the February highs. The projection for the MM low is for the first week of May.

The daily chart shows price last week having made a Monday high and Wednesday low, an atypical configuration that often occurs at MW lows. Wednesday was indeed the projected time for the MW low, and the near double-bottom with the late March multi-day low could have marked the low. While Wednesday's low held for the remainder of the week, price has been unable to trade above the weekly pivot or MD MA, indicating the MW low may not yet have been found.  When the MW low is in, price should trade above the blue MD MA and turn the MA upward. Price thus far today has opened well below the daily pivot, MD and MW MAs and the weekly and monthly pivots, all of which are in a fairly narrow range.

The hourly chart shows price having made a 24Hr high early Friday morning and selling off sharply into the close of pre-market trading where it formed the 24Hr low. Trading was halted for the long Good Friday holiday weekend, and since resuming last evening price has traded sideways, below the daily pivot and 24Hr MA. A 24Hr high is projected for just after today's close, though if we are on the downside of the MD cycle either the daily pivot or the 24Hr MA could put the high in early. A MD low is projected for just after today's close, essentially the same time when the 24Hr high is due; this is the type of anomaly seen when price is caught in sideways trading or a triangle pattern and why trading becomes difficult in these situations. 

 

Thursday 4/2/2015

The daily chart shows price yesterday making a lower high and lower low while closing below the daily pivot but appearing to find soft support on the blue MD MA. Price thus far today opened above the daily pivot but is currently trading below the MD MA and at the daily pivot. Yesterday was the timeframe for the MW low, but until price gets above the MD MA and bends it upward, that low is not in. We currently have a Monday high/Wednesday low situation, which usually only occurs at MW lows. With the market closed tomorrow for Good Friday, it will fall on today alone to fall below yesterday's lows if we are to make a more normal (and bearish) Monday high/Thursday or Friday low.

The hourly chart shows price making a 24Hr high yesterday morning before the NY open under 24Hr MA and MD MA resistance. Price sold off sharply and put in what appears to be an earlier than projected higher 24Hr low shortly after the open. That would make the 3/31 low a multi-day low, which was the projection for the MDL and MWL. Price did get above the 24Hr MA and did subsequently turn the MA upward, which argues that it was indeed an early 24Hr low. If so, what appears to be an earlier than projected 24Hr high was made just after the close under MD MA resistance. Price then sold off overnight, breaking below the daily pivot and 24Hr MA and bending that MA downward. Price is currently testing daily pivot and 24Hr MA resistance in the time window for price to find its session high. A session low is due shortly after the NY open. A higher session low at that time will indicate that the 24Hr low is in, and price should be able to retest MD MA or perhaps weekly pivot resistance as it searches for its MD high projected for tomorrow morning.   

Wednesday 4/1/2015

The daily chart shows price yesterday opening above the daily pivot, finding resistance at the MM MA, and closing below the daily, weekly and (new) monthly pivots. It should be noted that price did manage to close the month above the March monthly pivot- the importance of this for the bulls was mentioned frequently, including in yesterday's commentary.  Price thus far today has opened below the daily pivot and made a lower low and lower high. Today is the projection for the multi-week low, and today's low was just one tick above last week's low and a stone's throw from the prior March multi-week low. It is possible that today's double-bottom will bring us the MWL exactly on projection, but price will determine when the low is in, not a projection. When the MWL is made, price will rise above the blue MD MA, turn it upward, and use it as support as it seeks out the multi-week high projected for April 13th. We are currently in a Monday high/Wednesday low situation, and it has been noted before that Wednesdays rarely mark the lows or highs for the week, except at turns in the MW cycle. That could be the case here, or price could continue lower this week for a more typically bearish Monday high/Friday low scenario.

The hourly chart shows price making a 24Hr low yesterday before the NY open on weekly pivot and MD MA support, then making an earlier than projected 24Hr high beneath 24Hr MA and MW MA resistance. Price then sold off hard, making an early lower 24Hr low last evening. Price has run up into 24Hr MA and MD MA resistance, putting in at least a session high, and possibly an early 24Hr high. Price is currently trying to find support on the session MA. If we are still on the upside of the 24Hr cycle, price will find support on the session MA and likely test the daily pivot; if the 24Hr high is already in, then a lower session high will be seen a couple of hours after the open and price will retest the recent lows. It should be noted that the recent 24Hr low is just one tick above the prior MDL (marked with an up arrow in a blue ellipse). Today is the projection for the MWL, and a double bottom of MD lows would likely mark the MWL.