Monday 4/6/2015

The monthly chart shows that the March candlestick made a lower high than February, but it closed above its own monthly pivot and above the multi-month MA. The current candle has opened below its monthly pivot and traded lower, but it is still above the MM MA. Notice that the MM MA has turned sideways; while the turning of the MM MA, along with the inability to eclipse the February high, lends credence to the idea that the multi-year cycle is rolling over, we must remember that it is very early in the life of this candle, and a rally could easily turn the MM MA upward again.

The weekly chart shows price last week making a lower high and higher low, closing below the monthly pivot, weekly pivot, and the MM and MW MAs. This is behavior indicative of being on the downside of the multi-month cycle (and arguably the multi-year cycle). Thus far, however, we still have not taken out the mid-March low. Price is correcting more or less sideways, forming a small rectangle within a larger triangle. This occurs when the cycles of two frames are at odds with each other, and the price breakout occurs in the direction of the larger timeframe. If the MY cycle is indeed rolling over and price is being supported by the last vestiges of the upside of the MM cycle, then price will soon accelerate to the downside when the MM cycle turns down. If the MY cycle is still on the upswing, then price could merely be showing the effects of the downside of the MM cycle, and when the MM cycle low is found, price should retest the February highs. The projection for the MM low is for the first week of May.

The daily chart shows price last week having made a Monday high and Wednesday low, an atypical configuration that often occurs at MW lows. Wednesday was indeed the projected time for the MW low, and the near double-bottom with the late March multi-day low could have marked the low. While Wednesday's low held for the remainder of the week, price has been unable to trade above the weekly pivot or MD MA, indicating the MW low may not yet have been found.  When the MW low is in, price should trade above the blue MD MA and turn the MA upward. Price thus far today has opened well below the daily pivot, MD and MW MAs and the weekly and monthly pivots, all of which are in a fairly narrow range.

The hourly chart shows price having made a 24Hr high early Friday morning and selling off sharply into the close of pre-market trading where it formed the 24Hr low. Trading was halted for the long Good Friday holiday weekend, and since resuming last evening price has traded sideways, below the daily pivot and 24Hr MA. A 24Hr high is projected for just after today's close, though if we are on the downside of the MD cycle either the daily pivot or the 24Hr MA could put the high in early. A MD low is projected for just after today's close, essentially the same time when the 24Hr high is due; this is the type of anomaly seen when price is caught in sideways trading or a triangle pattern and why trading becomes difficult in these situations.