8/13/12 afternoon update

Yet again, the market is acting strangely; a 24Hr high due at the end of the day coming out of a multi-day low should have meant a trend day to the upside, but instead we have seen yet another premature 24Hr high and a move lower.  I mentioned this morning that these frequent half span-type shifts of the 24Hr cycle have made me very leery about feeling too confident in my projections.  That of course, did not stop me from trading a few high probability trade setups - none of which went in my favor.  While I do not (and should not) kick myself for placing these trades, the fact that all of them failed to work tells me that either:  a.)  I am seeing and executing the setups poorly; b.) the market is not doing what it normally does under similar short-term cycle setups; or c.) both of these things.

Regardless of which answer is correct, the proper thing for me to do at this point is take a much needed break from the blog and trading.  While this blog has only been up for roughly two months, it arose out of postings to a private community blog to which I have been posting since the beginning of March.  My enthusiasm is waning, my trading performance is below its normal dreadful par, and my brain is fried.  Hopefully I will be mentally recharged and back posting in September.

Weekly Projection and Pre-market Analysis for 8/13/12

The monthly chart shows price thus far in August having made a higher low and higher high as price continues on the upside of the multi-year cycle.

  

The weekly chart shows price last week making a higher low and higher high as price continued on the upside of the multi-month cycle. We are near the level of the March high and overdue for a MM high to be seen; in fact, a MM low is projected for this week.

  

The daily chart shows price Friday making a lower low and finding soft support on the MD MA. Price today has opened above the daily pivot and made a higher high but is currently trading little-changed. Notice the white daily pivot points have been grouped in the same area the past four trading days; this indicates a loss of price momentum and common pivots often mark the termination of a move. We are extremely overdue for a MW high to be made, but price shows no signs yet of that high being in.

The hourly chart shows price making what appears to be a multi-day low on Friday an hour after the NY open and a 24Hr high an hour before the close. Price overnight Sunday put in a higher 24Hr low on MD MA support and price has bounced and eclipsed Friday's high. A 24Hr high is projected for several hours after the NY close, and we are currently in the timeframe to see a session cycle low.

  

A session cycle low due near the NY open and a 24Hr high due after the close is a combination that should make for a good day to trade from the long side. The frequency of half-span 24Hr cycle highs and lows and the extreme lengths of the current multi-month and multi-day cycles have me concerned enough that I am not married to the idea of long-only trading today, however.  

Pre-weekend update

My biases continue to plague my trading and I will be spending much time this weekend addressing the issue - though I expect it will take quite some time before I see improvements.  Despite saying I wouldn't be surprised if the market's action was muted today, it was purely lip service; I spent the entire day (and a few hundred dollars) anticipating a sell-off that never came.  In fact, the market gained more and more strength throughout the day and seemed to indicate that the multi-day low was put in this morning just after the close. If so, we are still on the upside of the multi-week cycle- a cycle which appears to not want to peak.
A horrible week of chart interpretation and a mediocre week of trading has come to an end.  Next week begins the process anew.

The multi-day high is in (finally)

Price today has opened above the daily pivot but has thus far made a lower high and lower low and has penetrated (finally) the blue multi-day moving average. We were extremely overdue for both a multi-day high and a multi-week high. We have now definitely seen a MD high; the question remains whether the MW high is also behind us. If so, price can be expected to test the green MW MA (and possibly the monthly pivot below that) in the next week or so.

The hourly chart shows price testing the blue MD MA an hour before yesterday's NY open, but closing above the daily pivot the same candle. This was the first hint that the MD cycle was rolling over. The second came with the half-span shift of the 24Hr cycle high just a few bars later. Last evening price broke below the MD MA and thus far the 24Hr MA has acted as resistance, behavior indicative of being on the downside of the MD cycle. We are already overdue to see a MD low due to the extreme right-translation of the MD high, but I would expect that we will see a couple of lower 24Hr lows before the MD low is made. Whether we have made a 24Hr low already this morning is uncertain. We are in the timeframe for a session cycle low to be made and it is possible we have just put it in; if so, it is a higher session cycle low which means the 24Hr low was made around 3:30am. A 24Hr high is projected for an hour after the NY open. I would expect the daily pivot or 24Hr MA to provide resistance for this high and to see price drop the remainder the of day; it is even possible that we have already seen the 24Hr high made under 24Hr MA resistance at the 4:30am bar - a lower session cycle high projected for shortly after the open would be needed to confirm this.

The turning of a MD cycle usually headfakes me; I expect a dramatic sell-off coming out of a MD high and it doesn't appear...until the next day. I expect price to drop for most of the day and end sharply lower, but it would not shock me if the market action is muted today and we wake up Monday morning to the futures down 100 pts on the Dow.  

Market Analysis for 8/9/12

The daily chart shows price yesterday closing above the daily pivot but with an inside day compared to the prior day's candle. Price today has opened above the daily pivot and thus far made a higher low and higher high. Today is the projection for a multi-week low, and we have yet to see price exhibit any behavior that indicates the multi-week cycle has rolled over.

  

The hourly chart shows price making a 24Hr low near yesterday's NY open an rallying above the daily pivot. By definition, another 24Hr high and low appear to have been made (shown with "?") before the more obvious 24Hr high that was put in overnight. This 24Hr high appears to be a double top with Tuesday's high. Yesterday I had incorrectly jumped to the conclusion that Tuesday's high was a multi-day high; while price and time may prove that true, it was an error to assume it at the time as we had not seen a lower 24Hr high that is required to confirm. A double top of 24Hr highs often marks a multi-day high, so I would expect price to start showing some signs of being on the backside of the MD cycle; currently, however, price continues to view the daily pivot as support rather than resistance. If there was no extra 24Hr low overnight, the next one is projected for 11:30am; if the overnight low (marked with a "?") was a half-span 24Hr low, then we could see a trend day down. A session low is projected for 10:45am and a session high is projected for noon.

Awful call by me yesterday. I bailed on my short positions early and managed to make money, but anyone who read my comments would likely have gotten pasted, as my declaration that a multi-day high had been made Tuesday was very premature.  In any case, the multi-day high and multi-week high are both well overdue and price shows no signs of rolling over. The double top with Tuesday's high, as well as the possible half-span shifting of the 24Hr cycle, makes me think price will break the daily pivot and visit the blue MD MA today in search of a MD low; since the MD MA has been climbing steadily upward that now provides very little downside, however. Still, if the MDH is in, today should be a trend day down through the close; if we are still on the upside of the MD cycle, price should bottom late a.m./early p.m and restest the overnight highs. Flip a coin.  

Market Analysis for 8/8/12

The daily chart shows price yesterday making a higher low and higher high. Price today has opened above the daily pivot but currently trading below it and challenging yesterday's lows.

We are past due to see a multi-week high, and a multi-week low is projected for tomorrow.

  

The hourly chart shows price making a 24Hr high early afternoon yesterday and price has traded down since. We are past due to see a 24Hr low, but if we are on the downside of the multi-day cycle this is not unexpected. Price may want to visit the blue MD MA before finding the 24Hr low; conversely, it could put in a 24Hr low soon, followed quickly by a lower 24Hr high below daily pivot and 24Hr MA resistance and a resumption of the move down.

  

I referred to yesterday as "Turnaround Tuesday" as I believed that it would mark a multi-day high and possibly a multi-week high. It appears that it did mark the former, we shall have to see about the latter. I am short from yesterday afternoon and will hold these shorts until we visit the blue MD MA below. If we bounce before reaching that MA, I will look for a 24Hr high at daily pivot/24Hr MA resistance to add to my short position.

Turnaround Tuesday?

The daily chart shows price yesterday forming a doji but making a higher low and higher high. Price today opened below the daily pivot but has thus far made a higher low and higher high. We are overdue for a multiweek high to be seen; a multi-week low is projected for Thursday.

The hourly chart shows price yesterday making an earlier-than-projected 24Hr high and trading down through the 24Hr MA at the close. A 24Hr low was made several hours later; it was a lower 24Hr low but also came well before projection. I would have assumed with the early 24Hr high yesterday that we had found our multi-day high, but price has since rallied back above the 24Hr MA and daily pivot and eclipsed yesterday's high. The 24Hr high is projected for 12:30pm EST today, and the next 24Hr low is due near midnight. A multi-day low is projected for Thursday, the same day as the MW low projection. We are currently in the window to see a session high made.

It is possible that today's high will also be a multi-week high, meaning price can be expected to drop to at least the weekly pivot 20 points lower, if not the MW MA 30 points away. The session high that is likely being put in 30 mins before the open could very well prove to be the 24Hr high as well, though one more higher session high by lunch/early afternoon is possible. A break of the 24Hr MA should signal the 24Hr high has been seen and will likely begin a sharp multi-day correction.

Weekly and Daily Analysis for 8/6/12

The monthly chart shows price early in the August candle opening above the monthly pivot and thus far making a higher low and higher high. This is price behavior that occurs when we are on the upside of the multi-year cycle. A multi-year high is projected for January or February of next year. Until we surpass the March highs, however, there remains the risk that we have seen a half-span shift of the MY cycle; a lower multi-month high (on the weekly chart) would have to be seen before we can give that argument any merit.

The weekly chart shows price last week making a higher low and higher high and price this week has opened above the weekly pivot. This is behavior indicative of price being on the upside of the multi-month cycle. A multi-month high is past due; if we are on the upside of the multi-year cycle we should surpass the prior multi-month from March before finding the multi-month high.  A multi-month low is projected for the week of 8/17.

The daily chart shows a wide green candle for Friday as price surged to a new high for the week. Price today has opened above the daily pivot and thus far made a higher low and higher high. Price is overdue to find a multi-week high. A multi-week low is projected for this Thursday.

The hourly chart shows price putting in a multi-day low last Thursday (marked with white arrow in blue ellipse) and trading up all day Friday until finding a 24hr high in Sunday evening trading. We are overdue to see a 24Hr low made; it is possible that the 4:30am EST candle was that low, but we need a higher session low projected for 10:30am to confirm. We are overdue to see a multi-day high, but we usually see at least two and often 3 24Hr highs made after a MD low before seeing a MD high. A 24Hr high is projected for hours after the NY close.

Any trip below the brown session MA in the 10:00am-11:00am timeframe that does not take out the 4:30am session low will indicate that we are on the upside of the 24Hr cycle.  A 24Hr high is not projected until after the close, so any trading today should be done on the long side.

Market Analysis for 8/3/12

The daily chart shows price yesterday opening below the daily pivot and making a higher high and lower low, finding soft support on the monthly pivot and MW MA. Price today has opened below the daily pivot but has thus far rallied back above the MD MA. The status of the MW cycle is still in question, but today's action could provide the answer. Obviously a rally above Monday's high would indicate a move on the upside of the MW and MM cycle. Anything less than that will provide more in the way of clues than an absolute answer.

  

The hourly chart shows price putting in a 24Hr high yesterday at the open under soft MD MA resistance and plunging below the weekly and monthly pivots and MW MA to put in a 24Hr low in the early afternoon. Price has since rallied sharply and has climbed above the MD MA. We are in the timeframe for a 24Hr high. It is likely that yesterday saw the overdue MD low put in, and if so, it was a higher MD low than the prior one; a MD high is projected for Sunday evening. It has been 9 hours since price has come anywhere near the session MA, another indication that we are currently on the upside of the 24Hr and MD cycles.

A rally today above Monday's high could provide many clear answers, which means it probably won't do that.  It appears we have put in a multi-day low yesterday afternoon, though we need to see a higher 24Hr low (projected for late morning) to confirm.  If we are on the upside of the MD and MW cycles, taking out Monday's high should be possible; If we are on the upside of the MD cycle but the backside of the MW cycle, then price should find soft resistance at the MD MA and perhaps trade sideways from current levels for the next day or two before making new lows.

Bruce's Pre-market Analysis for 8/3/12

The daily chart shows price yesterday opening below the daily pivot and making a higher high and lower low, finding soft support on the monthly pivot and MW MA. Price today has opened below the daily pivot but has thus far rallied back above the MD MA. The status of the MW cycle is still in question, but today's action could provide the answer. Obviously a rally above Monday's high would indicate a move on the upside of the MW and MM cycle. Anything less than that will provide more in the way of clues than an absolute answer.

  

The hourly chart shows price putting in a 24Hr high yesterday at the open under soft MD MA resistance and plunging below the weekly and monthly pivots and MW MA to put in a 24Hr low in the early afternoon. Price has since rallied sharply and has climbed above the MD MA. We are in the timeframe for a 24Hr high. It is likely that yesterday saw the overdue MD low put in, and if so, it was a higher MD low than the prior one; a MD high is projected for Sunday evening. It has been 9 hours since price has come anywhere near the session MA, another indication that we are currently on the upside of the 24Hr and MD cycles.

Strange behavior - Market analysis for 8/2/12

The daily chart shows price yesterday opening below the daily pivot and making a lower high and lower low and closing at the MD MA. Today price has opened below the daily pivot and thus far made a higher high and lower low, finding resistance at the MD MA and currently testing the weekly and monthly pivots. A MW high is projected for today or tomorrow; if we are on the upside of the MM and MW cycles, price should take out Monday's high before that MW high is found. The alternative is that Monday saw an earlier-than-projected MW high and that we are now on the downside of the MW cycle.  An early turn in the MW cycle is often a warning that the higher timeframe multi-month cycle has turned.  How price reacts to higher timeframe support below and the MD MA above should let us know which alternative is correct.

  

 The hourly chart shows price yesterday making a lower 24Hr high at the open and a lower 24Hr low under the MD MA at the close. Price overnight found frequent resistance at the daily pivot before breaking above it and bumping into the MD MA. We are in the timeframe to find a 24Hr high, and it is possible that we have just seen one as price has spiked above the MD MA but reversed strongly back below the daily pivot and below the prior 24Hr low. We are well past due to see a MD low, but thus far price has done nothing to indicate that we are on the upside of the MD cycle. A session cycle low is projected for 9:15am Central, and a 24Hr low is projected for mid-afternoon. We shall see if the green MW MA (barely in picture at bottom right) provides support for one or both of these lows to be found.


Though news-driven, this is still very odd behavior for a market that should be on the upside of the multi-month and multi-week cycles.  It is possible that the surge Friday and Monday was the last gasp of the multi-month cycle before it rolled over.  If so, price should find continued resistance at the blue MD MA in the coming days as price travels sharply lower.  

Bruce's Pre-market Analysis for 8/2/12

The daily chart shows price yesterday opening below the daily pivot and making a lower high and lower low and closing at the MD MA. Today price has opened below the daily pivot and thus far made a higher high and lower low, finding resistance at the MD MA and currently testing the weekly and monthly pivots. A MW high is projected for today or tomorrow; if we are on the upside of the MM and MW cycles, price should take out Monday's high before that MW high is found. The alternative is that Monday saw an earlier-than-projected MW high and that we are now on the downside of the MW cycle. How price reacts to higher timeframe support below and the MD MA above should let us know which alternative is correct.

  

 The hourly chart shows price yesterday making a lower 24Hr high at the open and a lower 24Hr low under the MD MA at the close. Price overnight found frequent resistance at the daily pivot before breaking above it and bumping into the MD MA. We are in the timeframe to find a 24Hr high, and it is possible that we have just seen one as price has spiked above the MD MA but reversed strongly back below the daily pivot and below the prior 24Hr low. We are well past due to see a MD low, but thus far price has done nothing to indicate that we are on the upside of the MD cycle. A session cycle low is projected for 9:15am Central, and a 24Hr low is projected for mid-afternoon. We shall see if the MW MA provides support for one or both of these lows to be found.

Market Analysis for 8/1/12

The daily chart shows price yesterday opening below the daily pivot and making a lower high and lower low. Price today has opened below the daily pivot and made a lower low, but appears to have found support at the MD MA and bounced back above the daily pivot. A MW high is projected for tomorrow.

The hourly chart shows beautifully the transition of the 24Hr MA's roll from support until the NY open yesterday when it then acted as resistance before the market sold off and price ventured near the MD MA in making a lower 24Hr low just after the close. This latter behavior indicates that we had finally seen a MD high and were searching for the MD low. Whether we have already found that low after the close yesterday remains to be seen, but price has spent several hours above the daily pivot and 24Hr MA. We are overdue to see a 24Hr high made, and a 24Hr low is projected for late tonight/early Thursday. A session high is projected for 45 mins after the NY open, and a session low is due shortly after.

We finally broke the daily pivot/24Hr MA yesterday just after my post, and headed down to the blue MD MA.  We didn't quite make it there, which may be testament to the strength of the MW and MM cycles, or it may mean we have not yet seen the multi-day low.  It is possible we will make one more test of the MD MA today before seeing the multi-day low; if we break above the highs of this morning after the open, however, then I will assume yesterday was a MD low and that today will be a trend day up through late afternoon.

Bruce's Pre-Market Analysis for 8/1/12

The daily chart shows price yesterday opening below the daily pivot and making a lower high and lower low. Price today has opened below the daily pivot and made a lower low, but appears to have found support at the MD MA and bounced back above the daily pivot. A MW high is projected for tomorrow.

The hourly chart shows beautifully the transition of the 24Hr MA's roll from support until the NY open yesterday when it then acted as resistance before the market sold off and price ventured near the MD MA in making a lower 24Hr low just after the close. This latter behavior indicates that we had finally seen a MD high and were searching for the MD low. Whether we have already found that low after the close yesterday remains to be seen, but price has spent several hours above the daily pivot and 24Hr MA. We are overdue to see a 24Hr high made, and a 24Hr low is projected for late tonight/early Thursday. A session high is projected for 45 mins after the NY open, and a session low is due shortly after.