8/13/12 afternoon update

Yet again, the market is acting strangely; a 24Hr high due at the end of the day coming out of a multi-day low should have meant a trend day to the upside, but instead we have seen yet another premature 24Hr high and a move lower.  I mentioned this morning that these frequent half span-type shifts of the 24Hr cycle have made me very leery about feeling too confident in my projections.  That of course, did not stop me from trading a few high probability trade setups - none of which went in my favor.  While I do not (and should not) kick myself for placing these trades, the fact that all of them failed to work tells me that either:  a.)  I am seeing and executing the setups poorly; b.) the market is not doing what it normally does under similar short-term cycle setups; or c.) both of these things.

Regardless of which answer is correct, the proper thing for me to do at this point is take a much needed break from the blog and trading.  While this blog has only been up for roughly two months, it arose out of postings to a private community blog to which I have been posting since the beginning of March.  My enthusiasm is waning, my trading performance is below its normal dreadful par, and my brain is fried.  Hopefully I will be mentally recharged and back posting in September.

Weekly Projection and Pre-market Analysis for 8/13/12

The monthly chart shows price thus far in August having made a higher low and higher high as price continues on the upside of the multi-year cycle.

  

The weekly chart shows price last week making a higher low and higher high as price continued on the upside of the multi-month cycle. We are near the level of the March high and overdue for a MM high to be seen; in fact, a MM low is projected for this week.

  

The daily chart shows price Friday making a lower low and finding soft support on the MD MA. Price today has opened above the daily pivot and made a higher high but is currently trading little-changed. Notice the white daily pivot points have been grouped in the same area the past four trading days; this indicates a loss of price momentum and common pivots often mark the termination of a move. We are extremely overdue for a MW high to be made, but price shows no signs yet of that high being in.

The hourly chart shows price making what appears to be a multi-day low on Friday an hour after the NY open and a 24Hr high an hour before the close. Price overnight Sunday put in a higher 24Hr low on MD MA support and price has bounced and eclipsed Friday's high. A 24Hr high is projected for several hours after the NY close, and we are currently in the timeframe to see a session cycle low.

  

A session cycle low due near the NY open and a 24Hr high due after the close is a combination that should make for a good day to trade from the long side. The frequency of half-span 24Hr cycle highs and lows and the extreme lengths of the current multi-month and multi-day cycles have me concerned enough that I am not married to the idea of long-only trading today, however.  

Pre-weekend update

My biases continue to plague my trading and I will be spending much time this weekend addressing the issue - though I expect it will take quite some time before I see improvements.  Despite saying I wouldn't be surprised if the market's action was muted today, it was purely lip service; I spent the entire day (and a few hundred dollars) anticipating a sell-off that never came.  In fact, the market gained more and more strength throughout the day and seemed to indicate that the multi-day low was put in this morning just after the close. If so, we are still on the upside of the multi-week cycle- a cycle which appears to not want to peak.
A horrible week of chart interpretation and a mediocre week of trading has come to an end.  Next week begins the process anew.

The multi-day high is in (finally)

Price today has opened above the daily pivot but has thus far made a lower high and lower low and has penetrated (finally) the blue multi-day moving average. We were extremely overdue for both a multi-day high and a multi-week high. We have now definitely seen a MD high; the question remains whether the MW high is also behind us. If so, price can be expected to test the green MW MA (and possibly the monthly pivot below that) in the next week or so.

The hourly chart shows price testing the blue MD MA an hour before yesterday's NY open, but closing above the daily pivot the same candle. This was the first hint that the MD cycle was rolling over. The second came with the half-span shift of the 24Hr cycle high just a few bars later. Last evening price broke below the MD MA and thus far the 24Hr MA has acted as resistance, behavior indicative of being on the downside of the MD cycle. We are already overdue to see a MD low due to the extreme right-translation of the MD high, but I would expect that we will see a couple of lower 24Hr lows before the MD low is made. Whether we have made a 24Hr low already this morning is uncertain. We are in the timeframe for a session cycle low to be made and it is possible we have just put it in; if so, it is a higher session cycle low which means the 24Hr low was made around 3:30am. A 24Hr high is projected for an hour after the NY open. I would expect the daily pivot or 24Hr MA to provide resistance for this high and to see price drop the remainder the of day; it is even possible that we have already seen the 24Hr high made under 24Hr MA resistance at the 4:30am bar - a lower session cycle high projected for shortly after the open would be needed to confirm this.

The turning of a MD cycle usually headfakes me; I expect a dramatic sell-off coming out of a MD high and it doesn't appear...until the next day. I expect price to drop for most of the day and end sharply lower, but it would not shock me if the market action is muted today and we wake up Monday morning to the futures down 100 pts on the Dow.  

Market Analysis for 8/9/12

The daily chart shows price yesterday closing above the daily pivot but with an inside day compared to the prior day's candle. Price today has opened above the daily pivot and thus far made a higher low and higher high. Today is the projection for a multi-week low, and we have yet to see price exhibit any behavior that indicates the multi-week cycle has rolled over.

  

The hourly chart shows price making a 24Hr low near yesterday's NY open an rallying above the daily pivot. By definition, another 24Hr high and low appear to have been made (shown with "?") before the more obvious 24Hr high that was put in overnight. This 24Hr high appears to be a double top with Tuesday's high. Yesterday I had incorrectly jumped to the conclusion that Tuesday's high was a multi-day high; while price and time may prove that true, it was an error to assume it at the time as we had not seen a lower 24Hr high that is required to confirm. A double top of 24Hr highs often marks a multi-day high, so I would expect price to start showing some signs of being on the backside of the MD cycle; currently, however, price continues to view the daily pivot as support rather than resistance. If there was no extra 24Hr low overnight, the next one is projected for 11:30am; if the overnight low (marked with a "?") was a half-span 24Hr low, then we could see a trend day down. A session low is projected for 10:45am and a session high is projected for noon.

Awful call by me yesterday. I bailed on my short positions early and managed to make money, but anyone who read my comments would likely have gotten pasted, as my declaration that a multi-day high had been made Tuesday was very premature.  In any case, the multi-day high and multi-week high are both well overdue and price shows no signs of rolling over. The double top with Tuesday's high, as well as the possible half-span shifting of the 24Hr cycle, makes me think price will break the daily pivot and visit the blue MD MA today in search of a MD low; since the MD MA has been climbing steadily upward that now provides very little downside, however. Still, if the MDH is in, today should be a trend day down through the close; if we are still on the upside of the MD cycle, price should bottom late a.m./early p.m and restest the overnight highs. Flip a coin.  

Market Analysis for 8/8/12

The daily chart shows price yesterday making a higher low and higher high. Price today has opened above the daily pivot but currently trading below it and challenging yesterday's lows.

We are past due to see a multi-week high, and a multi-week low is projected for tomorrow.

  

The hourly chart shows price making a 24Hr high early afternoon yesterday and price has traded down since. We are past due to see a 24Hr low, but if we are on the downside of the multi-day cycle this is not unexpected. Price may want to visit the blue MD MA before finding the 24Hr low; conversely, it could put in a 24Hr low soon, followed quickly by a lower 24Hr high below daily pivot and 24Hr MA resistance and a resumption of the move down.

  

I referred to yesterday as "Turnaround Tuesday" as I believed that it would mark a multi-day high and possibly a multi-week high. It appears that it did mark the former, we shall have to see about the latter. I am short from yesterday afternoon and will hold these shorts until we visit the blue MD MA below. If we bounce before reaching that MA, I will look for a 24Hr high at daily pivot/24Hr MA resistance to add to my short position.

Turnaround Tuesday?

The daily chart shows price yesterday forming a doji but making a higher low and higher high. Price today opened below the daily pivot but has thus far made a higher low and higher high. We are overdue for a multiweek high to be seen; a multi-week low is projected for Thursday.

The hourly chart shows price yesterday making an earlier-than-projected 24Hr high and trading down through the 24Hr MA at the close. A 24Hr low was made several hours later; it was a lower 24Hr low but also came well before projection. I would have assumed with the early 24Hr high yesterday that we had found our multi-day high, but price has since rallied back above the 24Hr MA and daily pivot and eclipsed yesterday's high. The 24Hr high is projected for 12:30pm EST today, and the next 24Hr low is due near midnight. A multi-day low is projected for Thursday, the same day as the MW low projection. We are currently in the window to see a session high made.

It is possible that today's high will also be a multi-week high, meaning price can be expected to drop to at least the weekly pivot 20 points lower, if not the MW MA 30 points away. The session high that is likely being put in 30 mins before the open could very well prove to be the 24Hr high as well, though one more higher session high by lunch/early afternoon is possible. A break of the 24Hr MA should signal the 24Hr high has been seen and will likely begin a sharp multi-day correction.

Weekly and Daily Analysis for 8/6/12

The monthly chart shows price early in the August candle opening above the monthly pivot and thus far making a higher low and higher high. This is price behavior that occurs when we are on the upside of the multi-year cycle. A multi-year high is projected for January or February of next year. Until we surpass the March highs, however, there remains the risk that we have seen a half-span shift of the MY cycle; a lower multi-month high (on the weekly chart) would have to be seen before we can give that argument any merit.

The weekly chart shows price last week making a higher low and higher high and price this week has opened above the weekly pivot. This is behavior indicative of price being on the upside of the multi-month cycle. A multi-month high is past due; if we are on the upside of the multi-year cycle we should surpass the prior multi-month from March before finding the multi-month high.  A multi-month low is projected for the week of 8/17.

The daily chart shows a wide green candle for Friday as price surged to a new high for the week. Price today has opened above the daily pivot and thus far made a higher low and higher high. Price is overdue to find a multi-week high. A multi-week low is projected for this Thursday.

The hourly chart shows price putting in a multi-day low last Thursday (marked with white arrow in blue ellipse) and trading up all day Friday until finding a 24hr high in Sunday evening trading. We are overdue to see a 24Hr low made; it is possible that the 4:30am EST candle was that low, but we need a higher session low projected for 10:30am to confirm. We are overdue to see a multi-day high, but we usually see at least two and often 3 24Hr highs made after a MD low before seeing a MD high. A 24Hr high is projected for hours after the NY close.

Any trip below the brown session MA in the 10:00am-11:00am timeframe that does not take out the 4:30am session low will indicate that we are on the upside of the 24Hr cycle.  A 24Hr high is not projected until after the close, so any trading today should be done on the long side.

Market Analysis for 8/3/12

The daily chart shows price yesterday opening below the daily pivot and making a higher high and lower low, finding soft support on the monthly pivot and MW MA. Price today has opened below the daily pivot but has thus far rallied back above the MD MA. The status of the MW cycle is still in question, but today's action could provide the answer. Obviously a rally above Monday's high would indicate a move on the upside of the MW and MM cycle. Anything less than that will provide more in the way of clues than an absolute answer.

  

The hourly chart shows price putting in a 24Hr high yesterday at the open under soft MD MA resistance and plunging below the weekly and monthly pivots and MW MA to put in a 24Hr low in the early afternoon. Price has since rallied sharply and has climbed above the MD MA. We are in the timeframe for a 24Hr high. It is likely that yesterday saw the overdue MD low put in, and if so, it was a higher MD low than the prior one; a MD high is projected for Sunday evening. It has been 9 hours since price has come anywhere near the session MA, another indication that we are currently on the upside of the 24Hr and MD cycles.

A rally today above Monday's high could provide many clear answers, which means it probably won't do that.  It appears we have put in a multi-day low yesterday afternoon, though we need to see a higher 24Hr low (projected for late morning) to confirm.  If we are on the upside of the MD and MW cycles, taking out Monday's high should be possible; If we are on the upside of the MD cycle but the backside of the MW cycle, then price should find soft resistance at the MD MA and perhaps trade sideways from current levels for the next day or two before making new lows.

Bruce's Pre-market Analysis for 8/3/12

The daily chart shows price yesterday opening below the daily pivot and making a higher high and lower low, finding soft support on the monthly pivot and MW MA. Price today has opened below the daily pivot but has thus far rallied back above the MD MA. The status of the MW cycle is still in question, but today's action could provide the answer. Obviously a rally above Monday's high would indicate a move on the upside of the MW and MM cycle. Anything less than that will provide more in the way of clues than an absolute answer.

  

The hourly chart shows price putting in a 24Hr high yesterday at the open under soft MD MA resistance and plunging below the weekly and monthly pivots and MW MA to put in a 24Hr low in the early afternoon. Price has since rallied sharply and has climbed above the MD MA. We are in the timeframe for a 24Hr high. It is likely that yesterday saw the overdue MD low put in, and if so, it was a higher MD low than the prior one; a MD high is projected for Sunday evening. It has been 9 hours since price has come anywhere near the session MA, another indication that we are currently on the upside of the 24Hr and MD cycles.

Strange behavior - Market analysis for 8/2/12

The daily chart shows price yesterday opening below the daily pivot and making a lower high and lower low and closing at the MD MA. Today price has opened below the daily pivot and thus far made a higher high and lower low, finding resistance at the MD MA and currently testing the weekly and monthly pivots. A MW high is projected for today or tomorrow; if we are on the upside of the MM and MW cycles, price should take out Monday's high before that MW high is found. The alternative is that Monday saw an earlier-than-projected MW high and that we are now on the downside of the MW cycle.  An early turn in the MW cycle is often a warning that the higher timeframe multi-month cycle has turned.  How price reacts to higher timeframe support below and the MD MA above should let us know which alternative is correct.

  

 The hourly chart shows price yesterday making a lower 24Hr high at the open and a lower 24Hr low under the MD MA at the close. Price overnight found frequent resistance at the daily pivot before breaking above it and bumping into the MD MA. We are in the timeframe to find a 24Hr high, and it is possible that we have just seen one as price has spiked above the MD MA but reversed strongly back below the daily pivot and below the prior 24Hr low. We are well past due to see a MD low, but thus far price has done nothing to indicate that we are on the upside of the MD cycle. A session cycle low is projected for 9:15am Central, and a 24Hr low is projected for mid-afternoon. We shall see if the green MW MA (barely in picture at bottom right) provides support for one or both of these lows to be found.


Though news-driven, this is still very odd behavior for a market that should be on the upside of the multi-month and multi-week cycles.  It is possible that the surge Friday and Monday was the last gasp of the multi-month cycle before it rolled over.  If so, price should find continued resistance at the blue MD MA in the coming days as price travels sharply lower.  

Bruce's Pre-market Analysis for 8/2/12

The daily chart shows price yesterday opening below the daily pivot and making a lower high and lower low and closing at the MD MA. Today price has opened below the daily pivot and thus far made a higher high and lower low, finding resistance at the MD MA and currently testing the weekly and monthly pivots. A MW high is projected for today or tomorrow; if we are on the upside of the MM and MW cycles, price should take out Monday's high before that MW high is found. The alternative is that Monday saw an earlier-than-projected MW high and that we are now on the downside of the MW cycle. How price reacts to higher timeframe support below and the MD MA above should let us know which alternative is correct.

  

 The hourly chart shows price yesterday making a lower 24Hr high at the open and a lower 24Hr low under the MD MA at the close. Price overnight found frequent resistance at the daily pivot before breaking above it and bumping into the MD MA. We are in the timeframe to find a 24Hr high, and it is possible that we have just seen one as price has spiked above the MD MA but reversed strongly back below the daily pivot and below the prior 24Hr low. We are well past due to see a MD low, but thus far price has done nothing to indicate that we are on the upside of the MD cycle. A session cycle low is projected for 9:15am Central, and a 24Hr low is projected for mid-afternoon. We shall see if the MW MA provides support for one or both of these lows to be found.

Market Analysis for 8/1/12

The daily chart shows price yesterday opening below the daily pivot and making a lower high and lower low. Price today has opened below the daily pivot and made a lower low, but appears to have found support at the MD MA and bounced back above the daily pivot. A MW high is projected for tomorrow.

The hourly chart shows beautifully the transition of the 24Hr MA's roll from support until the NY open yesterday when it then acted as resistance before the market sold off and price ventured near the MD MA in making a lower 24Hr low just after the close. This latter behavior indicates that we had finally seen a MD high and were searching for the MD low. Whether we have already found that low after the close yesterday remains to be seen, but price has spent several hours above the daily pivot and 24Hr MA. We are overdue to see a 24Hr high made, and a 24Hr low is projected for late tonight/early Thursday. A session high is projected for 45 mins after the NY open, and a session low is due shortly after.

We finally broke the daily pivot/24Hr MA yesterday just after my post, and headed down to the blue MD MA.  We didn't quite make it there, which may be testament to the strength of the MW and MM cycles, or it may mean we have not yet seen the multi-day low.  It is possible we will make one more test of the MD MA today before seeing the multi-day low; if we break above the highs of this morning after the open, however, then I will assume yesterday was a MD low and that today will be a trend day up through late afternoon.

Bruce's Pre-Market Analysis for 8/1/12

The daily chart shows price yesterday opening below the daily pivot and making a lower high and lower low. Price today has opened below the daily pivot and made a lower low, but appears to have found support at the MD MA and bounced back above the daily pivot. A MW high is projected for tomorrow.

The hourly chart shows beautifully the transition of the 24Hr MA's roll from support until the NY open yesterday when it then acted as resistance before the market sold off and price ventured near the MD MA in making a lower 24Hr low just after the close. This latter behavior indicates that we had finally seen a MD high and were searching for the MD low. Whether we have already found that low after the close yesterday remains to be seen, but price has spent several hours above the daily pivot and 24Hr MA. We are overdue to see a 24Hr high made, and a 24Hr low is projected for late tonight/early Thursday. A session high is projected for 45 mins after the NY open, and a session low is due shortly after.

Market Analysis for 7/31/12

The daily chart shows price yesterday opening above the daily pivot and making a higher low and higher high. Price today has opened below the daily pivot but is currently trading above it. Having made a higher MW low and eclipsed the prior MW high, price is on the upside of the multi-month and multi-week cycles; a multi-week high is projected for Thursday.

The hourly chart shows price correcting sideways since Friday's 24Hr high in a series of short-cycled 24Hr highs and lows. It seems these hybrid cycles (abnormally short for 24Hr cycles, abnormally long for session cycles) are coming more and more frequently, and I am not sure what to make of them other than to hopefully figure it out after the fact when price does something more "normal". In any case, price has consistently found support on the 24Hr MA during this consolidation, behavior associated with being on the upside of the MD cycle. We are overdue for a 24Hr low to be found, and if the 24Hr high designations are correct then the overnight 24Hr high was a lower 24Hr high; we will now see whether price will finally crack the 24Hr MA and daily pivot in finding the next 24Hr low due overnight tonight.

We are currently in the timeframe to find a session low, and a session high is projected for 12:15pm EST.

I am short from yesterday and fully expect the S&P to break the daily pivot and 24Hr MA today and make a trip down to the MD MA nearly 20 points below.  A break above the highs of this congestion range (some 9 points higher) would tell me that the multi-month and multi-week cycles are up so strong that a sideways correction of the MD cycle is all that could be mustered (and would be very bullish for the market).

Bruce's Pre-market Analysis for 7/31

The daily chart shows price yesterday opening above the daily pivot and making a higher low and higher high. Price today has opened below the daily pivot but is currently trading above it. Having made a higher MW low and eclipsed the prior MW high, price is on the upside of the multi-month and multi-week cycles; a multi-week high is projected for Thursday.

The hourly chart shows price correcting sideways since Friday's 24Hr high in a series of short-cycled 24Hr highs and lows. It seems these hybrid cycles (abnormally short for 24Hr cycles, abnormally long for session cycles) are coming more and more frequently, and I am not sure what to make of them other than to hopefully figure it out after the fact when price does something more "normal". In any case, price has consistently found support on the 24Hr MA during this consolidation, behavior associated with being on the upside of the MD cycle. We are overdue for a 24Hr low to be found, and if the 24Hr high designations are correct then the overnight 24Hr high was a lower 24Hr high; we will now see whether price will finally crack the 24Hr MA and daily pivot in finding the next 24Hr low due overnight tonight.

We are currently in the timeframe to find a session low, and a session high is projected for 11:15am Central.

Market Analysis for 7/30/12

The hourly chart shows price making a 24Hr high just before the close on Friday. We are in the timeframe to see a 24Hr low and price is holding steady while the 24Hr MA races up to meet it.  Price is bouncing at the open, possibly indicating price has found a 24Hr low above daily pivot and 24Hr MA support, though a higher session low in roughly two hours is needed to confirm. A MD low is due this evening, but price is showing no signs of being on the downside of the MD cycle. A 24Hr high is projected for after the close today.

With a 24Hr high due near the close today, dips should be used to trade long.  Any break of the white 24Hr MA will be a sign that the MD cycle has rolled over and I would then expect a correction to the weekly pivot or green MW MA.

Bruce's Analysis for 7/30/12

The hourly chart shows price making a 24Hr high just before the close on Friday. We are in the timeframe to see a 24Hr low and price is holding steady while the 24Hr MA races up to meet it. Price is bouncing at the open, possibly indicating price has found a 24Hr low above daily pivot and 24Hr MA support, though a higher session low in roughly two hours is needed to confirm. A MD low is due this evening, but price is showing no signs of being on the downside of the MD cycle. A 24Hr high is projected for after the close today.

Weekly Projection for 7/30/12

The monthly chart shows price in June having madea lower low and lower high but finding support on the MY MA and closing above the monthly pivot. With the July candle closing today, price has opened above the monthly pivot and made a higher low and higher high. It is appearing more likely that the recent pullback to the MY MA was merely the downside of the multi-month cycle, though until we eclipse the March highs or break the June lows the status of the MY cycle is uncertain.

The weekly chart shows price last week opening below the weekly pivot and making a lower low, but boncing off higher timeframe support and closing well above the weekly pivot while making a higher high. Price early in this week's candle has opened well above the new weekly pivot but has shown little movement. The price action indicates that we are still on the upside of the MM cycle. We are overdue for a MM high to be seen, but the March high is within striking distance and eclipsing that high is needed to show we are still on the upside of the MY cycle.

The daily chart shows price making a Wednesday low on monthly pivot and MM MA support and closing on a Friday high above the prior MW high.  Price today has opened above the daily pivot but has thus far traded in a narrow range.  The next MW high is projected for Thursday. 

Bruce's Weekly Projection for 7/30/12

The monthly chart shows price in June having madea lower low and lower high but finding support on the MY MA and closing above the monthly pivot. With the July candle closing today, price has opened above the monthly pivot and made a higher low and higher high. It is appearing more likely that the recent pullback to the MY MA was merely the downside of the multi-month cycle, though until we eclipse the March highs or break the June lows the status of the MY cycle is uncertain.

The weekly chart shows price last week opening below the weekly pivot and making a lower low, but boncing off higher timeframe support and closing well above the weekly pivot while making a higher high. Price early in this week's candle has opened well above the new weekly pivot but has shown little movement. The price action indicates that we are still on the upside of the MM cycle. We are overdue for a MM high to be seen, but the March high is within striking distance and eclipsing that high is needed to show we are still on the upside of the MY cycle.

The daily chart shows price making a Wednesday low on monthly pivot and MM MA support and closing on a Friday high above the prior MW high.  Price today has opened above the daily pivot but has thus far traded in a narrow range.  The next MW high is projected for Thursday. 

Anatomy of an Idiot: mid-morning update for 7/27/12

Who would only be looking to go short while the market climbs 50 pts, 200 pts, and 100+ pts in successive days?  A lousy trader, that's who.  A.K.A.  "This Guy".  While acknowledging that the monthly pivot (pink horizontal line) could have turned the multi-week cycle up early, I nevertheless maintained a bearish outlook and rather than looking to go long on dips to the white 24Hr MA or yellow daily pivots, I instead looked for opportunities to short into a market that was ripping upward.  It's mind-boggling how I can not only miss these moves, but often be on the wrong side of them.  Discouraging end to a discouraging week.

Market Analysis for 7/27/12

The daily chart shows yesterday opening above the daily pivot and making a higher low and higher high, closing well above the MD and MW MAs and just under the weekly pivot. Price today has thus far opened well above the daily pivot and made a higher high but is still meeting some resistance at the weekly pivot. While it is still possible that this is merely a MD cycle bounce, it is looking more and more likely that the multi-week low was made earlier than projected on Wednesday on higher timeframe monthly pivot and MM MA support. If so, we have made a very slightly higher MW low to go along with the very slightly higher MW high, which would indicate that we are still on the upside of the multi-month cycle but that momentum appears to be waning. A MW high is projected for next Thursday.

  

The hourly chart shows price early yesterday morning finding soft support on the daily pivot and rallying all day. Price has possibly made an overdue 24Hr high overnight just above the weekly pivot, though a lower session high projected for 9:00am EST is needed to confirm. Price has just tested and bounced off of the 24Hr MA. A 24Hr low is projected for either the NY open or 3 hrs after (I am still unsure about my 24Hr high/low designations for Wednesday). We are overdue to see a MDH, and a MDL is projected for late Monday.

Yesterday I did not take my own advice to go long on a pullback to the brown session MA projected for 11:15am (pullback actually occurred at 12:15pm), but sadly did take my own advice to short at the weekly pivot (green horizontal line on chart below) and was stopped out overnight for a small loss.  As I've said a thousand times, I'm a horrible trader.  

As for today, price seemed to have found support at the 24Hr MA an hour ago, but I find it very hard to believe that we are going to make a 24Hr low there and spend the rest of the day rallying.  With the 24Hr high and multi-day high both being extremely overdue, I will be looking to get short today and anticipate a lower open on Monday.  A break of the white 24Hr MA should provide at least 6 points of downside, and possibly a trip down to the blue multi-day moving average by Monday.

  

Bruce's Pre-market Analysis for 7/27/12

The daily chart shows yesterday opening above the daily pivot and making a higher low and higher high, closing well above the MD and MW MAs and just under the weekly pivot. Price today has thus far opened well above the daily pivot and made a higher high but is still meeting some resistance at the weekly pivot. While it is still possible that this is merely a MD cycle bounce, it is looking more and more likely that the multi-week low was made earlier than projected on Wednesday on higher timeframe monthly pivot and MM MA support. If so, we have made a very slightly higher MW low to go along with the very slightly higher MW high, which would indicate that we are still on the upside of the multi-month cycle but that momentum appears to be waning. A MW high is projected for next Thursday.

  

The hourly chart shows price early yesterday morning finding soft support on the daily pivot and rallying all day. Price has possibly made an overdue 24Hr high overnight just above the weekly pivot, though a lower session high projected for 8:00am Central is needed to confirm. Price has just tested and bounced off of the 24Hr MA. A 24Hr low is projected for either the NY open or 3 hrs after (I am still unsure about my 24Hr high/low designations for Wednesday). We are overdue to see a MDH, and a MDL is projected for late Monday.

  

Market Analysis for 7/26/12

The daily chart shows price yesterday opening below the daily pivot and making a lower low but finding support on the monthly pivot and closing above the daily pivot. Price today has opened above the daily pivot and made a higher low and higher high. Price has thus far eclipsed the MD and MW MAs and is approaching the weekly pivot. This behavior indicates we are on the upside of the MD cycle; how price reacts to the weekly pivot will let us know where we are in the multi-week and multi-month cycles. It is possible that the monthly pivot and MM MA have turned the MW cycle early, indicating we are still on the upside of the MM cycle and are now on the upside of the MW cycle; it is also possible that we are merely on the upside of the MD cycle and price will resume its search for a MW low. Price behavior in the next day or two should tell us which scenario is unfolding.

  

The hourly chart shows price yesterday with a double-topping gyration around the daily pivot but with 24Hr MA support to form a 24Hr high, then a break of the 24Hr MA to form what appears to be a 24Hr low several hours ago. Price has since surged up and taken out the MD and MW MAs this morning. The higher 24Hr low confirms we are on the upside of the MD cycle. We are past due to see a MD high, and the 24Hr high is projected for around the close of today's regular session. We are currently in the timeframe for a session high to be seen, and a session low is projected for 11:15am EST.

Once again I have been fooled by sluggish early action coming out of a multi-day low; while the action coming out of a multi-day high is usually a market free-fall, the action coming out of a multi-day low seems to stutter step the first day before skyrocketing in day two.  While we found "soft support" on the 24Hr MA yesterday like I had mentioned was possible, it was too soft for my liking and I ended up bailing on my longs near the lows yesterday morning.  I clawed back to near break-even during the day with some daytrades but have no long positions as I awake to find the market soaring.  The market should continue to rise today, but I would expect the weekly pivot to provide resistance for the move up.  If we pull back toward the brown session MA sometime around 11:15am I will look to go long for a move up the remainder of the day, but I will look to short if price gets up to the weekly pivot in the 1358 area.

Bruce's Pre-market Analysis for 7/26/12

The daily chart shows price yesterday opening below the daily pivot and making a lower low but finding support on the monthly pivot and closing above the daily pivot. Price today has opened above the daily pivot and made a higher low and higher high. Price has thus far eclipsed the MD and MW MAs and is approaching the weekly pivot. This behavior indicates we are on the upside of the MD cycle; how price reacts to the weekly pivot will let us know where we are in the multi-week and multi-month cycles. It is possible that the monthly pivot and MM MA have turned the MW cycle early, indicating we are still on the upside of the MM cycle and are now on the upside of the MW cycle; it is also possible that we are merely on the upside of the MD cycle and price will resume its search for a MW low. Price behavior in the next day or two should tell us which scenario is unfolding.

  

The hourly chart shows price yesterday with a double-topping gyration around the daily pivot but with 24Hr MA support to form a 24Hr high, then a break of the 24Hr MA to form what appears to be a 24Hr low several hours ago. Price has since surged up and taken out the MD and MW MAs this morning. The higher 24Hr low confirms we are on the upside of the MD cycle. We are past due to see a MD high, and the 24Hr high is projected for around the close of today's regular session. We are currently in the timeframe for a session high to be seen, and a session low is projected for 10:15am Central.

mid-morning update for 7/25

Well, today's call couldn't have been any worse, as we pulled back to the daily pivot as I had hoped, but cut through it like a hot knife through butter and made a trip down to the 24Hr MA.  I am long and bleeding from the daily pivot, and will hold to see if we find support at the 24Hr MA as we should if we are on the upside of the multi-day cycle.  It seems unlikely that yesterday was not a multi-day low, so if we keep going south here I can only assume that we are hard down on the multi-month and multi-week cycles and that the multi-day cycle is being suppressed; this happened often during the rise out of the multi-year low in October of last year, when the market would make sustained runs with only one-day pauses.

7/25/12 - bounce day out of a multi-day low

The daily chart shows price yesterday opening below the daily pivot and making a lower high and lower low and finding support on the on the monthly pivot. Today price has opened below the daily pivot and made a lower low, again finding soft support on the monthly pivot and MM MA before bouncing above the daily pivot. A multi-week low is projected for Friday or Sunday evening; it is likely that we are seeing merely a bounce out of a MD cycle low, but it is also possible that the higher timeframe support has again turned the MW cycle ahead of projection as it did the prior MW low. We will need to see how price reacts in the area of the MD and MW MAs to know for sure where we are in the MW cycle, but one must assume we are on the downside of it until evidence suggests otherwise.

The hourly chart shows price yesterday finding making a 24Hr high under daily pivot resistance and trading down the remainder of the day until finding its 24Hr low just after the close on monthly pivot support. Price has rallied overnight off of that support and has traded above the 24Hr MA and daily pivot, indicating that yesterday was a MD low. A 24Hr high is projected for near the open and we are also in the window to see a MDH made; it is not unusual to see 24Hr highs extend past projection when coming out of a MDL, however, and I would expect to see price test higher timeframe resistance in the MD and MW MAs before finding its MD high. We are currently overdue to see a session cycle low.

A sell-off around the open to put in a session low (around the brown session MA or daily pivot) should provide a strong buying opportunity for another run up.  I do not expect a 24Hr high to be found until we test the green MW MA above, so buying on the open provides about 3 1/2 points of risk for a potential 10 points of reward, but obviously a sell-off to what I expect to be firm support will make that risk-reward scenario even more appealing.