No blog posts for this week.

The blog will return shortly, likely through Monday-only entries.  The format, while utilizing the same concepts, will be somewhat different.  In its current form this blog was merely a pale imitation of a far superior original.  It attempted to teach the concepts as they occurred in the market; I envision the new blog having links to better explain the concepts for those who are interested, while the commentary will make more specific calls for those who are only concerned about whether to be long or short.

Thursday 3/24/16

Price yesterday made a lower high, lower low and lower close versus Tuesday's candle, closing below the MD MA in the process. Thus far today price has opened below its daily pivot and has made a lower low and is trading below the weekly pivot.   This is behavior indicative of price being on the downside of the multi-week cycle.

 

The next multi-week low is projected for 4/1, and price should be expected to test the green MW MA before then.  The prior MW low did not make this test, however, as the upward strength of the multi-month cycle muted the downturn of the MW cycle.  We are in the timing window for a MM high this time, however, so it is very possible that Tuesday was not only a MW high but also a MM high; if this is the case price should be expected to test the MM MA or even the monthly pivot as it searches for its MM low projected for the first week of May.  How price reacts at the MW MA and how high price can bounce out of its eventual MW low will tell us whether we are on the downside of the MM cycle.

 

 

 

The hourly chart shows price yesterday finding support for its 24Hr low on the daily pivot and 24Hr MA in pre-market trading and then making an early, lower 24Hr high just three bars later. Soon after we broke 24Hr MA and daily pivot support and quickly dropped to the MD MA.  Little support was found there, however, and we dropped to the weekly pivot at the close.  Price in overnight and pre-market trading broke through this support as well, giving a strong clue that Tuesday was a multi-week high and we are now on the downside of the MW cycle.

 

We are overdue to see a 24Hr low. We are in the timing window to possibly see a MD low, and the MW MA could easily provide support for this low.  It should also provide support for the MW low if price is still on the upside of the multi-month cycle, but if we are on the downside of the MM cycle it will be interesting to see if the MD cycle becomes just as muted on the downside as it was on the upside during the recent rally.  As mentioned above, how price reacts to the MW MA will provide us with important information.

 

 

As an aside, I had mentioned in yesterday's hourly commentary that the 24Hr high was due early afternoon but failed to mention that with the MD high so overdue we could see an early 24Hr high and a break of daily pivot/24Hr MA support.  I had written of this possibility in Monday's and Tuesday's blog and, quite frankly, was tired of repeating myself.  Cycles by definition involve a large amount of repetition, and I try to make the commentary make some sense to any potential first-time reader which also means repeating many key elements of this particular style of cycle analysis. The fact that I am more frequently getting tired of this repetition is a sign that I am again suffering from blog burnout and need to take a break.  My plan is to turn the blog into a weekly effort posted on Sunday nights or before Monday's NY open. Whether it reverts back to a daily blog or disappears from there will depend on whether the weekly format eases my burnout.

Wednesday 3/23/16

The daily chart shows price yesterday making a higher high and lower low versus Monday while closing one tick lower.  Price today has opened above its daily pivot and is little-changed from yesterday's close.  All evidence points to price still being on the upside of the multi-week cycle, and the MW high is projected for 3/28.

 

 

 

The hourly chart shows price yesterday making a 24Hr low before the NY open and rallying to a higher 24Hr high early afternoon.  I had believed that price would make a lower 24Hr high yesterday, as we were in the window to see a multi-day high and the lower 24Hr low below daily pivot/24Hr MA support was a hint that a MD high had been seen; yesterday's higher 24Hr high and price finding support on the daily pivot/24Hr MA overnight argues that the MD high has not yet been seen.  Price currently appears to be bouncing out of a Session low on the way to its 24Hr high which is projected for early afternoon. 

 

 

Tuesday 3/22/16

Yesterday's candle shows yet another higher high, low and close versus the prior candle as price continues on the upside of the multi-week and multi-month cycles.   Price today has made a higher high but has also made a lower low than yesterday and is currently trading below its daily pivot.

 

I have officially designated March 4th as the MW high and 3/10 as the muted MW low for the intervening MW cycle off of the February multi-month low.  With this designation, the next MW high is projected for 3/28; the turn of the MM cycle will determine whether the actual MW high arrives earlier, later or on projection, however, and this week is the projection for the MM high.  If today is merely a multi-day high, price will find support on the MD MA and resume its move higher.  If today ends up marking the MW high (and likely MM high), price will break MD MA support and drag that MA downward in search of support for its MW low projected for 4/1.

 

 

 The hourly chart shows price yesterday making its 24Hr low before the NY open and chopping grudgingly upwards into a slightly higher 24Hr high after the NY close.  Price broke daily pivot and 24Hr MA support several hours ago and took out yesterday's low in what may have been the 24Hr low.  If so, price should move higher into its next 24Hr high which is due after the close today.  We are overdue to see a MD high, however, and price trading below 24Hr MA/daily pivot support and taking out yesterday's low is a strong hint that we are now on the downside of the multi-day cycle.  If so, price should find resistance at the 24Hr MA/daily pivot for an early 24Hr high (perhaps next hour for a half-span shift of the daily cycle high) and move lower to test the MD MA/weekly pivot confluence area.  A move below this area would signal that the MW high (and likely MM high) has been seen and we should expect price to move lower to test at least the MW MA near 2004.

 

 

Monday 3/21/16

The monthly chart shows price thus far in March having made a higher low and higher high versus February with price now trading back above the MM and MY MAs and the monthly and yearly pivots. This candle is shaping up to be very similar to last October's, when we saw a nearly identical move that stalled out the next month and eventually saw new lows.  While it is possible that one of these moves was out of a multi-year low, by definition it is impossible for both to have been multi-year lows.  Unfortunately I will have to wait for further price action to determine when (or if) the MY low was seen.

 

 

 

The weekly chart shows price last week continuing its recent string of higher low-, higher high- and higher-close candles.  We are obviously on the upside of the multi-month cycle, and if the late December/early January test of the MM MA was a MM high then we are in the timeframe to see a MM high.  It is important to remember that cycle highs and lows can come way before or after the projections; in fact, it is possible that we are just extremely overdue to see the first MM high after the November MM high.

 

When the MM high is in, price will first trade below its weekly pivot and then trade below the MW MA and turn that average lower. The bears will then have much heavy lifting (or pushing) to do, as price will have the MY MA , MM MA, and monthly pivot below all acting as potential support for the next MM low projected for the first week of May.

 

 

 

The daily chart shows price finding support on the upsloping MD MA several times last week as price continued on the upside of the multi-week cycle.  As has been mentioned far too often in the daily chart discussions, we are either overdue to see a MW high or one is not projected until next Monday.  The MW highs have been difficult to discern because the MW lows have been so shallow.   I expect this to end when price finds its multi-month high, as that higher timeframe cycle will no longer be supporting price.  It is very likely that when price eventually breaks below the MD MA to mark the MW high that it will also mark the MM high, meaning a more substantial decline will be at hand. 

 

 

 

The hourly chart shows price making its 24Hr high at noon on Friday and drifting below daily pivot and 24Hr MA support in Sunday evening trading.  We made a 24Hr low several hours ago and price then rallied above the 24Hr MA and daily pivot and eclipsed Friday's high.  Price has since pulled back to dailiy pivot/24Hr MA support, and unless we have seen an early 24Hr high price should find support here to move higher into its projected early afternoon high.

 

We are in the timeframe to expect a multi-day high to be seen, so it is very possible that today's 24Hr high will also mark the MD high.  Should price fail to find support at current levels and take out the overnight low, it would hint that price is already on the downside of the MD cycle and we should expect price to test the weekly pivot or MD MA today or tomorrow.  Given the possibility that we are also due to see a MW high and MM high, one can see how a simple 24Hr high could turn into the launch point for a significant downside move.

 

 

Friday 3/18/16

Price yesterday made a higher low, higher high and higher close versus the prior day, a situation which has become quite commonplace as price continues on the upside of the multi-week cycle.  Price thus far today has opened above its daily pivot and eclipsed yesterday's high.   There is nothing new to add to yesterday's commentary, so I will direct readers there rather than repeat.

 

The hourly chart shows price yesterday morning making a 24Hr low just below the daily pivot and then rallying to eclipse the prior 24Hr high.  Price corrected sideways in overnight trading, making a 24Hr low above the 24Hr MA in yet another sign of underlying strength.  The next 24Hr high is projected for near the close, and it is possible that it may also be a multi-day high. If so, when price breaks Session MA support, it should not only test the 24Hr MA and daily pivot, but likely move below those areas.  Normally a test of the MD MA would be expected before price finds its next multi-day low, but price has often found support above this level lately due to the strength of the higher timeframe cycles moving higher.

 

 

Thursday 3/17/16

Price yesterday made a higher low, higher high and higher close versus Tuesday as price rallied late in the day on news that the Fed was keeping rates unchanged.  Price today has thus far made a higher high but is currently trading lower and testing its daily pivot.

 

The blue MD MA which is the backbone of the multi-week cycle has continually acted as support since the February multi-month low, with the very minor exceptions of the two hiccups (one in February and one in March).  One of those exceptions marked a MW high and shallow MW low; if it was the February one then we are in the timeframe to see a MW high, but if it was the March one then the MW high is not due until 3/28.  When the MW high is in, price will cease to find support at the MD MA and trade below it, turning that MA downward.  I will exit all longs and go short on the next close below the MD MA.

 

 

 

The hourly chart shows price yesterday making a 24Hr low after the NY open and later surging higher after the Fed's decision to keep rates unchanged.  Price found a 24Hr high in overnight trading and quickly dropped below the daily pivot.  A 24Hr low is projected for late morning, and we will see if price can find "soft" support for on the daily pivot for an early 24Hr low by quickly regaining it and trading higher into its next 24Hr high projected for well after the NY close. 

 

 

Wednesday 3/16/16

The daily chart shows price yesterday making a lower high and lower low but closing little-changed compared to Monday.  Price thus far today has made a slightly higher high but is currently trading slightly below yesterday's close as the market appears to be in a holding pattern prior to the Fed decision on rates this afternoon.

 

Fed days are notoriously difficult to trade, and the very narrow range we have seen leading up to this one will likely make things worse.  I expect that price will show an extreme reaction to the news, likely initially in a false direction before reversing for a sharp move in the "real" direction. When coupled with the uncertainty of how far we are into this MW cycle, I will not feel confident initiating any swing trades, but a close below the MD MA will likely have me going short tomorrow for a move down into a potential MW low.

 

 

 

The hourly chart shows price yesterday finding its 24Hr low just above weekly pivot support and then rising into the close.  A lower 24Hr high was seen just after the NY close, which confirms Monday's high as a multi-day high.  A 24Hr low is projected for noon.  If we are still on the downside of the MD cycle, price should retest or take out yesterday's low, but if yesterday was also the MD low then price should find support here at the daily pivot/24Hr MA for an early 24Hr low.  I expect price to trade mostly in a sideways pattern today until the Fed decision unleashes a lot of pent-up volatility.

 

 

Tuesday 3/15

Price yesterday made a slightly higher high but closed slightly lower versus Friday.  Price today has thus far made a lower high and lower low than yesterday.  Today's behavior is indicative of price being on the downside of the multi-day cycle.   If February saw a multi-week high and low, today would also be the projection for the next MW high.  As mentioned yesterday, however, the MW cycle has been difficult to discern since the February multi-month low, so it is possible that the MW high was instead seen a little over one week ago and the next MW high will not be due until the end of the month.

 

The muting of the MW low is due to the strength of the upward move in the MM (and possibly MY) cycle, so it is possible that we will not see a substantial correction into a MW low until the multi-month high has been seen.  When price breaks the dashed green trendline which closely matches the slope of the green MW MA, it will be a strong hint that the MM and MW highs are in and price would be expected to test the monthly pivot or MM MA before finding its MM low. 

 

 

 

The hourly chart shows price yesterday making a 24Hr low above daily pivot support and then rising into the close where it made a higher 24Hr high.  Price has drifted steadily lower in overnight and pre-market trading as price searches for its 24Hr low, projected for noon.

 

The fact that price is trading below the daily pivot and 24Hr MA indicates that price is now on the downside of the multi-day cycle.  Given the unknown status of the MW cycle, we must be wary that any MD high could possibly be the MW high.  If we are still on the upside of the MW cycle, price should find support on the MD MA or weekly pivot (both dark blue).  Should price fail to find support at these levels it would indicate that price is on the downside of the MW cycle and a dip down to the green MW MA would be expected over the next few days.

Monday 3/14/16

The monthly chart show price having made a higher low and higher high versus February with price currently trading just above the MY MA and just below the yearly pivot.  Price is trading above the monthly pivot and MM MA and if it can close the month above these levels it will be a hint that we are on the upside of the multi-year cycle.  If so, it would mean that last month saw a MY low and we should expect price to rise into August of this year.  Should price reverse in the next three weeks it will keep open the uncertainty of whether we saw a MY low last August and are currently on the downside of a fresh MY cycle whose low is not due until November.

 

 

 

The weekly chart shows price last week making a higher low and higher high, closing above the MY MA as price continued on the upside of the multi-month cycle.  It had been unclear whether price was overdue for a MM high or whether there was an intervening, muted MM cycle and the MM high is not due until next week.  At this point we are so overdue that it appears likely that there was an intervening cycle, but it has also become irrelevant as we are now in the timeframe to see a MW high regardless.

 

We must assume that price is on the upside of the MM cycle until price shows us otherwise, and it will eventually do so by close below its weekly pivot and MW MA and turning that MA lower as we search for the MM low projected for early May.

 

 

 

The daily chart shows price last week making a somewhat rare Thursday low and Friday high. A quick test showed that this has happened 19 times since 1996, and while price was higher one month later in 11 of those cases, two of the 8 losers had price down 16.5% and 25.1% one month later.  Given that we are in the timeframe to be seeing a MM high shortly and are currently unsure as to where we are in the MY cycle, the above statistic becomes a little more interesting.

 

Because of the strength of the move up off of the February MM low, the downside of the MW cycle was steamrolled and leaves us guessing where the MW low may have been.  If a MW high and low occurred in February, then the next MW high is projected for tomorrow.  If the MW high occurred early March then the next MW high is not projected until 3/28.

 

This muting of the MW cycle does not occur too often and usually indicates that both the MM and MY cycles are strongly on the upside. This could certainly be the case, and while the monthly chart is inconclusive it at least has signs of hope for the bulls.  It must be remembered however, that when the MM cycle starts to roll over, the MW cycle will no longer be muted.  Price will eventually close below the blue MD MA and turn that MA lower as price searches for its MW (and MM) low.

 

 

 

The hourly chart shows price rising out of its Thursday MD (and MW?) low and rising into Friday's close.  It appears that a muted 24Hr high and low were seen Friday a.m. and price then made an early 24Hr high at Friday's close.  Price has since drifted modestly lower, and we are currently in the timeframe for price to see a 24Hr low.  We would expect price to find support for its 24Hr low at the 24Hr MA or daily pivot if we are still on the upside of the MD cycle.   Failure to do so will indicate that price is now on the downside of the MD cycle, though much like the MW cycle, the MD cycle has been extremely tame lately.  A close above the Session MA and a turn of that average higher will indicate that the 24Hr low has been seen, and the 24Hr high is projected for the close.

 

 

Friday 3/11/16

Price yesterday took a wild ride, making a sharply higher high and sharply lower low versus Wednesday before closing little-changed.  Price thus far today has opened above its daily pivot and eclipsed yesterday's high, indicating that price is on the upside of the multi-week cycle.

 

The extreme upward pressure has muted the multi-week cycle so that the MW low is indiscernible; this is no small feat and makes a strong argument that higher timeframe cycles are strongly on the upswing, in this case the multi-month and multi-year cycles.  Whether the February test of the MW MA or this week's test of the weekly pivot marked a MW low is unclear, but one of them must be the overdue MW low.  If it was the February hiccup in price, the MW high is projected for next Tuesday; if last Friday was the MW high, the next MW high will not be due until the end of March. 

 

 

 

It was mentioned yesterday that the hourly chart had already been acting abnormally, with price chopping above and below pivots and MAs that normally act as visible support or resistance. This behavior was amplified yesterday, with price surging to a 24Hr high before the NY open and then plummeting into a 24Hr low in mid-afternoon.  Price rallied back to the MD MA and 24Hr MA at the close, and one would have been forgiven for expecting price to find resistance at this level.  Instead, price blasted through this resistance in overnight trading and has taken out yesterday's high.

 

A 24Hr high is projected for the next hourly bar, but with price having made a double-top of 3Hr highs at the 2011.50 level and now testing the Session MA, it is possible that the high has been seen.  Should the Session MA fail to support price, we can assume that the 24Hr high is in and that price will decline down to the 24Hr MA or daily pivot before finding its 24Hr low, projected for late afternoon.

 

 

Thursday 3/10/16

Price yesterday had an inside day, finding support for its higher low on the weekly pivot and resistance for its lower high on the MD MA.   Price early in today's candle has opened above its daily pivot and exploded higher, taking out last Friday's high, meaning that price is still on the upside of the multi-week cycle.  It is looking extremely likely now that the small two-day pullback in mid-February was a MW and low, and the next MW high is not projected until next Tuesday. Price is currently ignoring the potential resistance on the weekly and monthly chart from the MY MA, but that does not mean that the will be the case by week's end.  While this does mean that the upside reward over the next two weeks is far less than the downside risk, the strength of this rally has been very impressive, giving a hint that price is on the upside of the multi-year cycle. 

 

 

 

The hourly chart has become somewhat difficult to interpret as price has chopped above and below the Session MA, the 24Hr MA and daily pivot, and even the MD MA, all areas that normally provide visible support and resistance during the daily, MD and MW cycles.  What is evident is that price just one bar ago surged higher and took out Friday's MD high, signifying that price is still searching for its MW high.

 

Unless price saw an overnight high and low, we are in the timeframe to see a 24Hr high.  We are also in the timeframe to see a MD high.  There is the possibility that the next MD high will also be a MW high, but the sloppiness and choppiness of the hourly chart has made it difficult to make any of the normal proclamations that a certain action will mean that a 24Hr, MD or MW high has been seen.  It should be noted though that such choppiness usually occurs as a cycle is changing from up to down (or vice versa). 

 

 

Wednesday 3/9/16

*Apologies for the late post.  The blog entry was completed earlier than normal today but never published.  

Price yesterday made a lower high and lower low and close versus Monday, with price closing just beneath the MD MA and testing the weekly pivot.  Price thus far today has opened below its daily pivot but is currently trading back up to the MD MA.  It is evident that Friday was a multi-day high, but it is still unclear whether it was also a multi-week high, as price has refused to break lower; should the MD MA act as resistance today and price turns lower to take out yesterday's low, it would be a strong likelihood that the MW high has been seen.  Of course, the weekly pivot is capable of providing support for a MW low if price is on the upside of the multi-month cycle, so where the MW low is found is just as important as when it is found.   A sideways correction for the remainder of the week into a MW low and then a launch higher would be a strong indication that price is on the upside of the MM and MY cycles, while a steeper correction down to the MM MA or monthly pivot would leave open some bearish possibilities.

 

 

 

The hourly chart shows price yesterday chopping above and below the gold Session MA, continually finding resistance at the 24Hr MA as it moved its way lower.  A clear 24Hr low was finally made at the close, and price has been moving higher ever since.  With price having moved back above the 24Hr MA, daily pivot, and MD MA, it is likely that yesterday's low was also a MD low.

 

We are either in the timeframe to see a 24Hr high or are overdue to see this high.  If we are on the upside of the MD cycle price should find support for its 24Hr low on the daily pivot or 24Hr MA.  We are also in the timeframe to see a MD high either today or tomorrow.  Should price break 24Hr MA/daily pivot support today or tomorrow, it will indicate that the MD high has been seen.  A lower MD high than Friday's will indicate that Friday was also the MW high and I would expect price to then take out yesterday's low in the following days.  Should the MD high be higher than Friday's MD high it would mean that the MW high has yet to be seen.

 

 

Tuesday 3/8/16

Price yesterday had an inside day versus Friday, with a slightly higher low, slightly lower high and slightly higher close.  Price thus far in today's candle has opened above its daily pivot but has traded lower to test the MD MA.  This test of the MD MA was mentioned yesterday and confirms Friday as a multi-day high.  Whether Friday will also prove to be a multi-week high remains to be seen.

 

If February saw a MW high, as seems likely, then the next MW high is not projected until 3/15. As mentioned in yesterday's blog in the weekly chart commentary, price is up against the MY MA, which could easily provide resistance for price to see an early MW (and MM) high.  Should price find support at the MD MA and make new recent highs, it seems likely that we can expect price to continue rising into next week's projected MW high.  Should price fail to find support at the MD MA, it will indicate that price has finally seen its MW high. 

 

 

 

The hourly chart shows price yesterday making a lower 24Hr high early afternoon and dropping in overnight trading where it appears to have found support on the MD MA.  It is possible that price is now merely rising into a Session high, as the 24Hr low is not due until 10:00am EST, but it is more likely that the MD MA put in support for price to see an early 24Hr low.  The 24Hr high is not projected until mid-afternoon, and where this high is made will be very informative.  If price is still on the downside of the MD cycle, price will find resistance for its 24Hr high at the 24Hr MA or daily pivot.  Should price instead eclipse these levels, it would indicate that the overnight low was a MD low and price is now on the upside of the MD cycle.  As mentioned above, price eclipsing Friday's high would indicate that price is still on the upside of the MW cycle and we should expect price to continue rising this week.

 

 

Monday 3/7/16

The monthly chart shows price in February having made a lower high, lower low and slightly lower close versus January, closing below the monthly and yearly pivots and the MM and MY MAs.  Price early in March has thus far opened above its monthly pivot and made a higher high, and is currently trading above the MM MA and testing the MY MA.

 

While last month's action was most definitely behavior indicative of price being on the downside of the multi-year cycle, this month's early action hints that price may be on the upside of the MY cycle.  It is crucial to remember that in a downtrend strength is usually seen early in the bar/candle, so it is far more important where the month closes than the route it took to get there.   Nevertheless, with the possibility that we were overdue to see a multi-year low, we must be open to the possibility that last month's double-bottom (or triple-bottom) was the MY low.  If so, there will be no excuse for price not to make fresh all-time highs in the months ahead.  If August was a MY low and we are on the downside of a fresh MY cycle whose low is not due until the end of the year, there is no excuse for price to not take out the August lows in the next couple of months.   Either way, a large, decisive move should occur before mid-year that will set the stage for follow-through in the same direction for the remainder of the 2016.

 

 

 

The weekly chart shows price last week with a strong bullish candle, making a higher low, high and close versus the prior week.  Price closed above the MW and MM MAs as price continued the surge out of the mid-February multi-month low.  Whether we are overdue to see a MM high or one is not projected until 3/25 (depending on whether the December/January hitch marked with ?s constituted an intervening MM cycle) is fairly irrelevant now, as price is testing the MY MA, the last higher timeframe resistance area.  If price is on the downside of the MY cycle, the MY MA could easily provide resistance to see an early (or overdue) MM high.

 

Unless price really surprises by attaining new highs before finding its MM high, the real intrigue will occur as price searches for its next MM low.  When price trades below its weekly pivot and then below the MW MA and turns that average lower, we will know that the MM high has been seen.  Bulls will then want to see the monthly pivot or MM MA provide support for the MM low projected for the week of 5/6; a higher MM low on monthly pivot/MM MA support would confirm that price is on the upside of the multi-year cycle.  Bears would expect to see price drop precipitously out of the MM high, with price seeing new lows in the weeks ahead. 

 

 

 

The daily chart shows price last week surging out of a Tuesday intraday low and making a Friday high, classic early weakness/late strength behavior in an uptrend (and the bullish corollary to the behavior mentioned in the monthly chart commentary).  Price closed above the weekly and monthly pivots and the MD, MW and MM MAs as we continued on the upside of the multi-week cycle.

 

We are either overdue for a MW high or one is not projected until next Tuesday, depending upon whether or not an intervening MW cycle was seen 2/22-2/24.  Price today has opened below its daily pivot, a hint that price may be on the downside of the multi-day cycle.  It was mentioned last week that if we are overdue for the MW high, the next MD high will likely also be the MW high.   If so, price will fail to find support at the MD MA and will trade below it, turning that average downward.  Even if we are on the upside of a fresh MW cycle, if the MY MA can provide resistance for price to see a MM high (as discussed in the weekly chart commentary), it can certainly provide resistance for price to see a half-span shift of the MW high, which would match up with last Friday.

 

All of the charts have a level of indecision about where they are in their respective cycles, something I have not seen in the several years of following this theory of market behavior.  There is little point to placing odds that price is on the upside or downside of any particular cycle, as price is quite capable of defying the highest odds.  While the uncertainty presents problems for long-term investors, swing traders can still gain some benefit.  With the possibility that we are overdue for a MW high, could see a half-span MW high, or the MW high will not be seen until next Tuesday, it is still evident that the downside risk over the next 1-3 weeks is greater than the upside reward.  One may want to wait for a close below the MD MA to exit longs (and/or go short), but the next "easy" money should be made to the downside as price tests the MW MA or perhaps even the MM MA/monthly pivot. 

 

 

 

The hourly chart quickly became a confusing mess on Friday as price near the open appeared to make a 24Hr high followed by a 24Hr low on daily pivot support.  Price did follow through to new highs several hours later but then sold off again.  Price traded mostly sideways overnight under 24Hr MA and daily pivot resistance, indicating that Friday's high was also a MD high. It is unclear whether we are overdue to see a 24Hr low or if an intervening daily cycle was seen in Sunday evening trading.  What is clear is that price is on the downside of the MD cycle, and we should expect price to visit the weekly pivot/MD MA confluence area near 1973 before the MD low is seen. If Friday was also a MW high, price could test the green MW MA later this week.

 

 

Friday 3/4/16

Price yesterday again made a higher low, high and close versus the prior day as we continue on the upside of the multi-week cycle.  Price thus far today has again opened above its daily pivot and has made a higher high.  As has been mentioned numerous times lately, the further overdue the MW high becomes, the more likely it is that the slight hitch we saw in the MD MA in February was a a brief pullback into a MW low.  However, a similar relentless move happened into the January MW low, which was 24 days after the prior MW low.  Thus far we are 24 days from the prior MW high, so price may still find its MW high today or Monday.

 

Regardless of whether price saw a very bullish muted MW low in February or is still overdue to see that low, the move out of the February multi-month low has greatly improved the bullish argument for stocks. The pink MM MA is starting to curl up, which is a clue that the multi-year low has been seen and we are on the upside of the multi-year cycle.  It is important to note that it is far more important for this to happen on the weekly chart (and fairly conclusive on the monthly chart), but the occurrence on a daily chart is still a strong hint that the cycle has turned.
Even if we see a correction into a MW low start shortly, price is now above all higher timeframe pivots and MAs that should provide support to see a higher MW low.

 

 

 

The hourly chart shows price yesterday again finding support for its 24Hr low on the daily pivot and moving higher.  It appears that a 24Hr high was seen in overnight trading followed by another 24Hr low on daily pivot support several hours ago.  Price finding support on the daily pivot or 24Hr MA is classic behavior of price on the upside of the multi-day cycle.  We are in the timeframe to see a MD high, so it is likely that the next 24Hr high (projected for Sunday evening) will also be a MD high.  I am also more wary during periods where the MD high is overdue that a half-span shift could occur, which in this case would result in a late morning 24Hr high.  Until the gold Session MA fails to provide support, however, we must assume that price is still on the upside of the daily cycle.  Until the 24Hr MA or daily pivot fails to provide support, we must assume that price is still on the upside of the MD cycle.

 

 

Thursday 3/3/2016

Price yesterday made a higher low, high and close versus Tuesday as price continues on the upside of the multi-week cycle.  As has been mentioned, we are far enough overdue for a MW high that it is becoming more and more likely that the brief intraday pullback to the MW MA in February marked a MW high and low.  There is a possibility that we are seeing an inversion, where the MW high will come on the projected date of the MW low (tomorrow), but unless we see a sharp sell-off next week we will have to assume a stealth MW high and low were seen early last week.   If so, it means that the MW cycle was being dominated by the upward swing of higher timeframe cycles.  This would be extremely bullish as it would indicate that price is on the upside of the multi-month and multi-year cycles. 

 

 

 

The hourly chart shows price yesterday finding its 24Hr low on 24Hr MA support and rising into the close. This is behavior indicative of price still being on the upside of the multi-day cycle. Price continued to rise in overnight trading and appears to have made a slightly higher 24Hr high.   A 24Hr low is projected for noon, though the 24Hr MA or daily pivot should provide support for an earlier low if we are still on the upside of the MD cycle.  We are squarely in the timeframe to see a MD high, however, and it is possible that the head-and-shoulders top pattern that has developed since yesterday's 24Hr low will mark the MD high.  As mentioned yesterday, price would be expected to test the blue MD MA before finding its MD low; if the MD high is also an overdue MW high, then price should test the MW MA over the next several trading days. 

 

 

Wednesday 3/2/16

Price yesterday made a slightly lower low but sharply higher high and close versus Monday as price continued on the upside of the multi-week cycle.  The question remains whether price is continuing to search for an overdue MW high or if price is on the upside of a fairly new MW high.  Being one full week past the projected MW high is not unheard of, but it is starting to lean my opinion toward the market having seen a "stealth" MW high and low in February.  Should a MW high not be seen today (Wednesday's often mark MW highs and lows) or by Monday (for a typical Monday high/Friday low scenario in a MW downtrend), then we must assume that longer-term cycles were so strong that they muted the downturn of the MW cycle in February. This would be extremely bullish in that it would not only mean that price should rise into mid-March before seeing its next MW high, but it would indicate that price is likely on the upside of the multi-month and multi-year cycles as well. 

The hourly chart shows price yesterday rising throughout the day and into overnight trading as it surged out of its MD low.  It was mentioned yesterday that price had no excuse not to take out the recent highs if price were indeed on the upside of the MW cycle, and it did not disappoint the bulls.   Price is now searching for its 24Hr low; if price is still on the upside of the MD cycle, the 24Hr MA or the daily pivot should provide support for this low.  Failure of price to find support at the daily pivot would indicate that price is on the downside of the MD cycle and price would then be expected to visit the MD MA.  Given the potential overdue nature of the MW high, it is also possible that the next MD high will be a MW high, and price will test the MW MA before finding a low. 

Tuesday 3/1/16

Price yesterday made a lower high, low, and close versus Friday.  Thus far today price has opened below its daily pivot and made a lower low but is currently trading above yesterday's close. The last two days have shown behavior indicative of being on the downside of the multi-day cycle, but it is uncertain whether we are also on the downside of the multi-week cycle. The MW low is projected for Friday, but thus far the MD MA continues to provide soft support for price.  As mentioned yesterday, I expect price to move lower this week into its MW low, but if price instead launches higher I must assume that the MW high and low have already been seen (marked with "?") and price will continue to rise into the next projected MW high due mid-March.

 

 

 

The hourly chart shows price yesterday finding soft resistance at the daily pivot near noon for its 24Hr high.  Price then fell through the remainder of the day and made a lower 24Hr low in overnight trading.  Given that price has since rallied above the 24Hr MA and daily pivot, it appears that the overnight low was also a MD low.  A 24Hr high is projected for early afternoon, and the daily pivot/24Hr MA should provide support for the next 24Hr low due well after the NY close.  If price is on the upside of the MW cycle, price should eclipse Friday's high in the next few days.  Failure to do so will confirm Friday as a MW high.