Price yesterday opened below the daily pivot and
dropped down to test support at the MD MA and the weekly pivot before rallying to
close above the daily pivot; it was mentioned yesterday that in a bullish
scenario price might find its multi-day low on MD MA support and have at least
one more multi-day cycle rise before finding its multi-week high. The first
part of this scenario has been fulfilled, now price needs to get through
resistance in the 2100 area to make a higher MW high than the March MW high;
preferrably, price will also eclipse the February high.
The hourly chart shows price making a series of
earlier-than-projected 24Hr highs and lows since Monday's multi-day high.
Interestingly, the first 24Hr low after the MD high was 12 hours from the prior
low, the next 24Hr low was 18 hours from then; the first 24Hr high after the MD
high was 18 hours from that high, and the next high was 12 hours from that.
Half-span shifting of the 24Hr cycle (~ 12 hours) is somewhat normal during
turns in the MD or MW cycle, but I've not seen the 3/4-span shift nor the
alternating of these shifts before.
Price overnight made a higher 24Hr low on 24Hr MA
and daily pivot support and has moved higher to eclipse yesterday's 24Hr high.
This is textbook action when price is on the upside of the MD cycle, and thus I
have marked Tuesday's low as the multi-day low. The multi-day high is projected
for Friday after the close, giving price plenty of time to fulfill the bullish
scenario mentioned in the daily commentary. Price is in the time window to be
making a session low, but the session cycle runs a normal 5-7 hours (and
occasionally 8 hrs) so this test of the gold Session MA could happen after the
close. The 24Hr high is projected for 1:00pm, giving time for one more session
cycle upswing, but given the 1/2 and 3/4 span shifts mentioned above, I am
keeping an eye on the possibility that price rises straight into the 11:00am
candle (one bar from now) where it finds its 24Hr high and sells off in search
of the next 24Hr low. As usual, price behavior around the Session MA will clue
us in- it will support price until the 24Hr high is in, and when the high is in,
it will cease to provide support and will roll over and resist price until the
24Hr low is found.
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