Monday 4/13/2015

A quick look at the monthly chart - price opened below the monthly pivot but is currently trading above it, and thus far has made a higher low and lower high than last month. This month is the projection for the multi-year top, but that top may have already occurred in February, or may lay out further into the year. While the failure to eclipse the February highs is a warning sign, as long as price finds support on the monthly pivot or rising multi-month MA (MM MA), we must assume that price is still searching for its MY high.

The weekly chart shows price last week making a higher low and higher high, closing back above the monthly pivot. Price this week has opened above its weekly pivot and the green MW MA has turned up. If the week closes with the the MW MA rising, it means that either the March or Early April low was a multi-month low and that we are on the upside of the MM cycle. It is important to remember, however, that if price were to decline this week, the MW MA would remain flat or even bend downward, keeping the status of the MM low in question. A break to new highs answers both questions on the MY and MM cycle, while a turn down to retest the bottom of the triangle would keep both questions alive.

The daily chart shows price last week with the classic bullish Monday low/Friday high scenario, a scenario that plays out so often (along with its bearish sibling the Monday high/Friday low) that I should post a separate blog entry on the subject. Price is riding above the rising blue MD MA in search of its multi-week high, which is projected for today. If we are on the upside of the MM cycle, the MW high can easily extend past projection, giving price ample time to eclipse the March MW high. Failure to do this would mean a lower MW high, action that indicates we are on the downside of the MM cycle. Price thus far today has opened above the daily pivot and made a higher high than the prior bar but is currently trading back down to the pivot.

The hourly chart shows price making a 24Hr high in overnight trading Sunday before turning below the gold Session cycle MA and testing the daily pivot for support. We are past the time projection for the 24Hr low, and that low may have occurred just one bar past projection at the 5:00AM candlestick. A session low is projected for around 10:30AM; if that low is higher than this low, it confirms the 24Hr low is in and price should spend the entire day rising in search of the 24Hr high projected for after the close. A higher session low may already have occurred on daily pivot support just one bar ago; the ability of price to close above the 24Hr MA and turn the Session MA upward would confirm this. A multi-day high is projected for just before the close, and the MD low is projected for shortly after the close, indicative of the right-translated nature of the MD highs during this last MW cycle.