Tuesday 4/28/2015

The daily chart shows price yesterday making a bearish "outside" day as we saw a higher high but a lower low and a close below the daily pivot. Today price has opened below the daily pivot and is currently trading below the weekly pivot and MD MA. We are obviously on the downside of the multi-day cycle, but one would expect the MD MA or weekly pivot to provide support unless we are also on the downside of the multi-week cycle. Given that the MW high was not projected until June, this resurrects concerns of yet another half-span shift of cycles. Before getting too worked up about this, however, I will be willing to let the day play out and see if price can find support on the green MW MA and perhaps close back above the "soft" support of the MD MA, weekly pivot, and the prior resistance of the upper triangle boundary.

The hourly chart shows price making an earlier-than-projected 24Hr high then falling steadily into the NY close. Price found support for about 12 hourly bars in the area of the MD MA and weekly pivot before breaking that support and dropping down to the MW MA just one bar ago. We are overdue for the 24Hr low and the multi-day low; the MW MA would be a good place to find support for each of those lows. If the 24Hr low has been made, price will eclipse the gold Session MA and turn it upward as price searches for its 24Hr high which is projected for late morning. If the MD low has also been made, price should be able to eclipse the MD MA and preferably the daily pivot before finding the next 24Hr high, though it is possible that another higher 24Hr low will need to be seen before price can start to turn the 24Hr MA higher.