Wednesday 4/29/2015

The daily chart shows price yesterday making a lower high and lower low but closing above the daily pivot, weekly pivot, MD MA and upper triangle boundary. I mentioned in yesterday's blog when price was testing the green MW MA that I was willing to be let the day play out to see if price recovered above the MD MA and weekly pivot; price did exactly that and thus the MD MA and weekly pivot, which are the backbone of the multi-week cycle, continud their role of "soft" support.

Price today has opened above the daily pivot but has traded down once more to test the MD MA and weekly pivot. The week is currently facing a Monday high/Tuesday low scenario, which is highly unlikely to be maintained. The Monday low/Friday high scenario typical to bullish moves is a bit of a catchall phrase that was coined by a knowledgeable and generous trader who observed that in an upward cycle price will make its low early in the week (Monday or Tuesday) and find its high late in the week (Thursday or Friday). The opposite is true in a downward cycle. Wednesday rarely marks the high or low for a week, and when it does it often marks the turn of a multi-week cycle (or larger). With a MW high projected for the middle of next week, the odds favor price rallying to new highs by Friday.

The hourly chart shows price yesterday finding its 24Hr low after a spike below (but a close above) the green MW MA. Price rallied above the daily pivot to put in a lower 24Hr high just after the NY close, which confirmed Monday's high as a multi-day high. We are past the projection for the MD low; it is likely that yesterday's low was the MD low, but a higher 24Hr low (projected for just after the NY open) is required to confirm this. Once again, it would be nice to see the weekly pivot (currently being penetrated) or the MW MA provide support for this low. The next MD high is projected for tomorrow afternoon.