Market Analysis for 6/29

Good morning for Friday, June 29th. The daily chart show price yeterday opening above the daily pivot but making a lower high and lower low and closing just above the daily pivot. Today price has opened above the daily pivot and MD MA and made a new high for the week. Should today's action hold it indicates that Monday was indeed a MW low. A MW high is projected for the July 4th timeframe.

  

The hourly chart shows price yesterday finding resistance at the daily pivot before breaking below the MD MA and trading lower into late afternoon. This fit with my expectation for the market posted yesterday morning.  In somewhat of a surprise, price then surged up to the daily pivot at the close, again finding it to be resistance. A session low was made early evening on MD MA and Session MA support before rocketing above the MW MA and the monthly and weekly pivots. This behavior indicates that we are on the upside of the MD and MW cycles. We are overdue for a 24Hr high, but an extreme right-translation coming out of a MD low on the upside of the MW cycle would be expected. We are currently in the timeframe for a session high to be found, and a session low is projected for about 30 mins after the NY open.

 

It is always rough to call for more upside when we are already overdue for a 24Hr high, but my expectation coming out of a MD low on the upside of a MW cycle is that we will see a session low shortly after the open and make another move higher for a higher session high in about 6 hours.  

Market Analysis for 6/28/12

Good morning for Thursday, June 28th. The daily chart shows price yesterday opening above the daily pivot and making a higher low and higher high, finding resistance at the monthly pivot and MM MA. Monday certainly saw a multi-day low- the question is whether it was also a multi-week low. Today price has opened above the daily pivot but is currently trading below it at the MD MA. If Monday was a MW low, price can be expected to find soft support at the MD MA; if we are still on the downside of the MW cycle, the MD MA should break and price should retest or surpass early week lows in the next few days.

The hourly chart shows price making a 24Hr low on daily pivot support Tuesday night and and a 24Hr high at the close yesterday just under the monthly pivot and MW MA.  I mentioned yesterday I had hoped to get more upside out of a move up from a multi-day low and I got it- price made a higher session low on 24Hr MA support and bolted upward through the MD MA.  Price today has found resistance at the 24Hr MA and daily pivot, indicating we are likely on the downside of the MD cycle. While the MW MA and monthly pivot are logical places to put in a multi-day high, this was a very tepid move up out of a MD low.  More importantly, this MD high was a lower MD high than the prior one, suggesting we are on the downside of the multi-week cycle.  A 24Hr low is past due and has possibly formed at the MD MA, but a higher session low projected for between 9:45am - 11:15am Central is needed to confirm. If we are on the downside of the MD MA, it would not be surprising to see the 24Hr low right-translate and see another lower session low (or two) before the 24Hr low is found. Finding the low here on the MD MA would be bullish and suggest that Monday's low was also a multi-week low.


My expectation is that the blue MD MA will break this morning and we will trade down for most of the day, despite already being overdue for a 24Hr low.  If price continues to find support on the MD MA I will likely stay to the sidelines as I would expect a day of price being squeezed between the blue MD MA below and the white 24Hr MA above.

Bruce's Pre-Market Analysis for 6/28

Good morning for Thursday, June 28th. The daily chart shows price yesterday opening above the daily pivot and making a higher low and higher high, finding resistance at the monthly pivot and MM MA. Monday certainly saw a multi-day low- the question is whether it was also a multi-week low. Today price has opened above the daily pivot but is currently trading below it at the MD MA. If Monday was a MW low, price can be expected to find soft support at the MD MA; if we are still on the downside of the MW cycle, the MD MA should break and price should retest or surpass early week lows in the next few days.

The hourly chart shows price making a 24Hr low on daily pivot support Tuesday night and and a 24Hr high at the close yesterday just under the monthly pivot and MW MA. Price today has found resistance at the 24Hr MA and daily pivot, indicating we are likely on the downside of the MD cycle. A 24Hr low is past due and has possibly formed at the MD MA, but a higher session low projected for between 9:45am - 11:15am Central is needed to confirm. If we are on the downside of the MD MA, it would not be surprising to see the 24Hr low right-translate and see another lower session low before the 24Hr low is found. Finding the low here on the MD MA would be bullish and suggest that Monday's low was also a multi-week low.

Market Analysis for 6/27/12

Good morning for Wednesday, June 27th. The daily chart shows price yesterday making a slightly higher low and a lower high, opening below but closing above the daily pivot. Price today has opened above the daily pivot, made a higher high than yesterday, and is testing MD MA resistance. This is behavior indicative of being on the upside of the multi-day cycle. The ability of price to break through this resistance will depend on whether we are still on the downside of the multi-week cycle. If Monday was a multi-week low as well as a multi-day low then price should test, if not exceed, the MM MA/monthly pivot area in the coming days; if we are still searching for the MW low, price should get rejected at the MD MA or the MW MA just above.

The hourly chart shows price yesterday finding frequent resistance at the daily pivot before breaking above it in the afternoon and putting in a 24Hr high. I have labeled the middle of the near double bottom as the 24Hr low and multi-day low. While each low of the double bottom meets the definition of a 24Hr low, there is no bar in between that saw a lower session high for me to label a 24Hr high. It appears another 24Hr low was put in late evening on daily pivot support, indicating we are on the upside of the MD cycle. We are already overdue for a MD high, and price is currently having trouble at the MD MA. A 24Hr high is projected for around today's close, but if we are still on the downside of the MW cycle the 24Hr high could be put in early at the MD MA. A session low is projected for 10:30am EST. Should the 24Hr MA provide support for this session low it is possible another attempt to break through the MD MA could occur later in the day. Failure of the 24Hr MA or daily pivot to provide support will be an indication that the 24Hr high and likely MD high is already in.

Today is tricky to call for swing trading.  I am long from yesterday's afternoon break of the daily pivot; I expected a bigger move coming out of a multi-day low and possible multi-week low, and I could still get that move later today.  If we are still looking for the overdue MW low, however, then price stalling at the blue MD MA is exactly what it should do, and we will get another move down to the lows of the past couple days at a minimum.  For daytrading, long out of the session low due approximately an hour after the open would normally be a safe multi-hour play, especially with a  run to the 1325 or even 1330 area being a possibility.  If we have made a weak, lower multi-day high, however, the downside move of the combined MW, MD, and 24Hr cycles are swift and severe and usually overwhelm the session cycle.  I'll be on the sidelines for daytrades unless the blue MD MA is broken to the upside (where I'll look for longs) or the yellow daily pivot is broken to the downside (where I'll look for shorts).

Bruce's Pre-Market Analysis for 6/27

Good morning for Wednesday, June 27th. The daily chart shows price yesterday making a slightly higher low and a lower high, opening below but closing above the daily pivot. Price today has opened above the daily pivot, made a higher high than yesterday, and is testing MD MA resistance. This is behavior indicative of being on the upside of the multi-day cycle. The ability of price to break through this resistance will depend on whether we are still on the downside of the multi-week cycle. If Monday was a multi-week low as well as a multi-day low then price should test, if not exceed, the MM MA/monthly pivot area in the coming days; if we are still searching for the MW low, price should get rejected at the MD MA or the MW MA just above.

The hourly chart shows price yesterday finding frequent resistance at the daily pivot before breaking above it in the afternoon and putting in a 24Hr high. I have labeled the middle of the near double bottom as the 24Hr low and multi-day low. While each low of the double bottom meets the definition of a 24Hr low, there is no bar in between that saw a lower session high for me to label a 24Hr high. It appears another 24Hr low was put in late evening on daily pivot support, indicating we are on the upside of the MD cycle. We are already overdue for a MD high, and price is currently having trouble at the MD MA. A 24Hr high is projected for around today's close, but if we are still on the downside of the MW cycle the 24Hr high could be put in early at the MD MA. A session low is projected for 9:30am Central. Should the 24Hr MA provide support for this session low it is possible another attempt to break through the MD MA could occur later in the day. Failure of the 24Hr MA or daily pivot to provide support will be an indication that the 24Hr high and likely MD high is already in.

Mid-morning Update for 6/26

I had mentioned a late morning or early afternoon break of the daily pivot should provide a signal to be long for the rest of the day, and perhaps the next few days.  Unfortunately, the early morning move above the overnight high means that the prior high was not a 24Hr high and that this move likely is.  That price again found resistance at the daily pivot indicates the MD low is not in; price should now trade lower as it looks for its 24Hr low and possible multi-day low.

Market Analysis for 6/26/12

Good morning for Tuesday, June 26th. The daily chart shows price yesterday opening below the daily pivot and making a lower high and lower low, behavior indicating we were on the downside of the MD and MW cycles. Price today has opened below the daily pivot and shown little movement thus far. We are overdue for a MW low to be found, but we are still very right-translated on the recent MW high.

The hourly chart shows price making a lower 24Hr low mid-day yesterday but unable to muster much of a rally into the close. My call for yesterday of going long on a break of the session moving average was a dud as price didn't break that MA until afternoon and went nowhere after.  Yesterday's action was what happens when both the multi-day and multi-week cycles are hard down.  After correctly anticipating this type of action last Thursday, I incorrectly assumed the MD cycle was ready to turn up.  We are overdue for a 24Hr high; it is possible the 3:30am Central bar was a lower 24Hr high under daily pivot resistance, but we need a lower session high (due shortly after the market open) to confirm. If confirmed, this would indicate we are still on the downside of the MD cycle. We are running abnormally long into this MD cycle unless I have missed a MD cycle in between; it would be tempting to call Friday's action a MD high that ran into MW MA and monthly pivot resistance, but there is no preceding higher 24Hr low for me to designate an intervening MD low. For now I'll just go with what I have, and that is an overdue MD low. A 24Hr low is projected for 11:30am Central. Currently, price appears to have made a double bottom of 3Hr lows which may also be a session low. A session high is projected for around 9:15am Central.  Should we get a higher 24Hr low or double bottom with yesterday's 24Hr low, it will mean the MD cycle has bottomed.

A late morning or early afternoon break of the daily pivot in the 1312 area will mean the 24Hr low is in, and likely the MD low as well.  This should provide a good long entry as price will look higher for a 24Hr high due after the close and possibly its MD high for the next few days.

Weekly discussion and Pre-Market Analysis for 6/25/12

Good morning for Monday, June 25th. The monthly chart shows price this month has thus far made a lower low and lower high, finding support on the MY MA and resistance at the MM MA. Whether or not March was an earlier-than-projected multi-year high is the major question at this point. If so, the MY MA support will eventually break and start acting as resistance; if not, the support will hold and we will get back above the MM MA. How price closes out this month will help in answering this question.

The weekly chart shows price last week making a higher high and higher low but closing below the MM MA and monthly pivot. Price this week has opened below the weekly pivot and taken out last week's low. This behavior could be an indication that last week was a lower MM high, which would be very bearish. A turn so quickly after a MM low would also have bearish implications. It is possible, since we have not yet seen a higher multi-week low, that the 6/8 candle was not a multi-month low and that we are still searching for that low.

The daily chart shows price making a MW high early in the week and then trading back below the monthly pivot and MM MA. Price today has opened below the daily pivot and made a lower low than Friday. We are overdue for the projected MW low; it will be interesting to see if the MW MA can provide soft support for this eventual low. A turn early this week would make for an extremely right-translated MW high; a more center-translated cycle would have price trading down into next week.

The hourly chart shows price late afternoon Friday putting in a 24Hr high under daily pivot and monthly pivot resistance, behavior indicating we are on the downside of the MD cycle. We are overdue for a multi-day low. We are also overdue for a 24Hr low; it is likely a break of the session MA will indicate the 24Hr low is in. A 24Hr high is projected for today's close.

A break of the brown session moving average should provide for good long entries today as a 24Hr high is not due until the close.  If we are on the downside of the multi-day cycle, price should find resistance at the white 24Hr MA or the daily pivot in the 1325 area; if we are coming out of a multi-day low, the move up will be even more rewarding.

Market Analysis for 6/22/12

Good morning for Friday, June 22nd. The daily chart shows a large, red candle for yesterday as price opened above the daily pivot, made a lower high and lower low and took out the weekly and monthly pivots in the process. Today price has opened well below the daily pivot and has thus far bent the MD MA downward (though that could change as the candle develops). It appears we have finally found the overdue MW high. Due to the extreme right-translation of the MW high, we are already overdue for a MW low.  While price could drop below the green MW MA, I would expect price to find "soft" support there and not dip below Tuesday's low in the 1300 area.  

  

The hourly chart shows price yesterday making a lower 24Hr high an hour before the NY open followed by trend day down into the close where it made a 24Hr low. I had mentioned in the update that it would a possible trend-down day and was correct, but we never got even a token bounce out of the morning's session low for me to go short.  This is price behavior associated with being on the downside of both the 24Hr and multi-day cycles and, given the lack of support from many MAs and pivots on the way down, likely the multi-week cycle as well. We are overdue for a MD low due to the extreme right-translation of the MD high. Currently, price is fluctuating around the session MA as it searches for a 24Hr high; assuming my 24Hr high/low designations are correct, we are overdue to find that high due to the shorter-than-normal 24Hr cycles as the higher timeframe cycles turned. The 24Hr MA is hard down and racing to meet price rather than price heading up to meet the moving average. A 24Hr low is projected for 11:30am Central, though a more normal cycle could bring it closer to the close. The sesson cycle is difficult to determine this morning as price has flagged around the session MA in a tight trading range.

I expect little upward movement in price today as we are overdue for the 24Hr high and the daily pivot and monthly pivot are likely to cap any rally.  Should price break yesterday's low in early trading it should provide a good short opportunity until late afternoon.

  

post-open update

In my haste to get the note published before the market opened (thanks, cat), I neglected to add my trading bias for the day; I started doing this just in the past couple of days in case anyone visits this blog but doesn't want to read through a page of what likely sounds like gibberish.  Here is today's:

Yesterday was likely a multi-day high and possibly the overdue multi-week high.  While I do not expect a deep correction, it should certainly be a tradeable one.  My preference would be to wait for a bounce from the session low due just after the open, perhaps for a bounce to the green 3Hr MA  (in the 1350 area in the S&P e-mini futures).  If we are on the downside of the MW cycle, this may be the extent of the bounce we see out of the session low before a trend-down day for the market.

Market Analysis for 6/21

Good morning for Thursday, June 21st. The daily chart shows price yesterday making a higher low but lower high, opening and closing just above the daily pivot. Price today has thus far also had an inside day and opened above a daily pivot that is very near yesterday's pivot. Common pivots often show up at cycle turns, another factor that led to my ill-fated consideration of last Monday as a MW high that brought subsequent derision and scorn upon me by those with far greater expertise in the subject.  That's okay, I've been called worse things by those closer to me, and cleaning up cat puke before breakfast hurt my feelings far worse.  Anyway, since we are still in search of the MW high, the common pivots are a warning flag of sorts.

  

The hourly chart is mass confusion for me. A 24Hr low was made overnight Tuesday, and it appeared a 24Hr high was made at 7:30am Central, until the 1:30pm EST bar made a higher high but a low that tested the MD MA. I am unsure how to handle this bar: ignore the large wicks and keep the 8:30am bar as a 24Hr high, consider the 1:30pm candle as the 24Hr high, or split the difference? The bar creates just as many problems when designating the 24Hr low, so for now I am going to just let price settle out and work backwards later. One thing is clear on the chart, however; price is gyrating around the daily pivot and 24Hr MA, though still above MD MA support. The MD cycle itself has been vague, though it now appears that Tuesday's high was the overdue MD high. Whether we have found the overdue MD low with yesterday's test of the MD MA has yet to be determined. Currently we are in the timeframe to see a session high and a session low is projected for shortly after the NY open.

Market Analysis for 6/20

Good morning for Wednesday, June 20th. The daily chart shows price yesterday opening above the daily pivot and all moving averages and making a higher low and higher high. Price today has opened above the daily pivot and is above yesterday's close though has not yet eclipsed yesterday's high. There is still no clear answer to whether we are on the upside of our 2nd MW cycle since the MM low of 6/4 or we are still trying to find our first MW high out of that low. With every passing day without a pullback, however, I am forced to lean toward the 6/11 candle as a MW high and the following bar as a suppressed MW low. Either scenario is bullish in the big picture.

The hourly chart shows price yesterday making a higher 24hr low on daily pivot and 24Hr MA support, a higher 24Hr high, and another higher 24Hr low on daily pivot and 24Hr MA support. All of this is behavior associated with being on the upside of the MD cycle. We are either very overdue for a MD high, or the Sunday evening high (marked with a "?") was a MD high followed by a very suppressed MD low; we did see a lower 24Hr high the next day which supports Sunday as a MDH, but no lower 24Hr low or test of the MD MA was seen.  If Sunday was a MD high, the next MD high is projected for tomorrow morning. We are currently in the timeframe for a 24Hr high to be made; if price can not get above yesterday's high it will be a lower 24Hr high and indicate yesterday was a MD high. If that is the case, price can be expected to break 24Hr MA and daily pivot support and test the blue MD MA below. Currently, price is testing the 3Hr MA and we are past the projected window for a session high, which may have been made the prior candle. A session low is projected for 30 mins past the NY open.  Note the brown session cycle MA is running parallel to the white 24Hr MA; this behavior often occurs at the ends of cycles, making it more likely that we have seen the 24Hr high. 


A break of the 24Hr MA would confirm the 24Hr high is in, and, with the next 24Hr low projected for after today's close, would indicate one should look for short opportunities today.

Market Analysis for 6/19

Good morning for Tuesday, June 19th. The daily chart shows price yesterday making a higher low and higher high and finding support on the monthly pivot and closing above the MM MA. Today price has opened above the daily pivot and thus far had traded within yesterday's trading  range. The question remains of whether last week saw a MW high and low made (in which case the market should be on the upside of the MW cycle until early next week) or whether the market is still searching for its MW high out of the MM low (in which case every up day is just another day closer to finding a MW high and rolling over to search for a MW low). A longer-than-projected, right-translated MW high makes more sense coming out of a MM low than a slightly shorter-than projected one; while the more "overdue" the MW high gets with each passing day makes it more likely that we have already seen a MW high and suppressed MW low, the move out of the March 2011 multi-month low before finding its MW high is comparable. Unfortunately, the only way of knowing for sure is to let price do what it is going to do.

The hourly chart shows a 24Hr low yesterday being made on monthly pivot support followed by a lower 24Hr high overnight. It is possible that a higher 24Hr low was put in early this morning on 24Hr MA and daily pivot support, though a higher session low projected for 10:15am EST  is needed to confirm. If so, this is behavior indicative of being on the upside of the multi-day cycle.

We are overdue for a MD high and have yet to experience any behavior that indicates we have seen one other than the lower 24Hr high. While one would expect to see a lower 24Hr low and a test of the MD MA on the backside of the MD cycle, it is possible that the Sunday evening high was a MD high and that the MW and MM cycles are suppressing the corrective behavior of the downside of the MD cycle. If this is the case, the expectation for today would be for a move up as the MM, MW, MD and 24Hr cycles may all be on the upside. The alternative is that the MD and MW cycles are still searching for their highs, and while that doesn't preclude a strong move up today, it makes that move subject to a turn at any time. A session high is projected for around the NY open, and as mentioned above the session low is projected for 10:15am EST.  Going long out of that session low should provide a low risk trade with potential for a big move up if we are on the upside of multiple higher-timeframe cycles.

Weekly and daily analysis for 6/18

Good morning for June 18th. The monthly chart mid-way through the month shows price having thus far made a lower low and lower high, finding support on the MY MA and resistance at the declining MM MA. The most important question on the chart is whether the March/April double-top was also a multi-year high; how price resolves its current battle between support and resistance will go a long way in answering this question. If we are still on the upside of the MY cycle then the MY MA should continue to provide support and price will eventually break above the MM MA and challenge or eclipse the March/April highs. The bearish stochastic cross, downturning MM MA, and lower MM high (as seen on Weekly chart) lead me to believe we have seen an earlier-than-projected MY high; while this does not preclude a retest of the March highs, it does make it more likely that the MM MA will provide frequent resistance in the months ahead.

The weekly chart shows price last week making a higher high and higher low, finding support on the MW MA but resistance at the MM MA. Early in this week's candle, price has opened opened above the weekly and monthly pivots and made a higher high but is currently trading lower and testing the weekly and monthly pivots. A multi-month high is not projected until the first week of July. If we are on the downside of the MY cycle then the MM MA could provide soft resistance and perhaps a sideways correction rather than upside price movement until the MM high is found, but given the amount of time remaining until the projected MM high price should be able to work its way higher.

The daily chart shows price on Friday challenging Monday's high and bumping into MM MA resistance. The MM MA has provided soft resistance again today, as price has opened above the daily pivot and made a higher high but is currently trading below the daily pivot and testing monthly pivot support. The big question on the daily chart is whether last Monday was a slightly earlier than projected MW high (odd coming out of a MM low) followed by a severely left-translated MW low (not odd coming out of a MM low), or is price still searching for a later-than-projected MW high (not odd coming out of a MM low). If last Monday was a MW high followed immediatly by its MW low then price should be on the upside of the MW cycle until it finds its next MW high (projected for 6/25). If price has not yet found the MW high then it is overdue- in fact today would be the projected date for the MW low. Unfortunately the two possibilities have contrasting outlooks price- the first scenario being bullish for the week and the latter scenario being bearish assuming price finds its MW high early in the week.

  

The hourly chart shows price making a higher 24Hr low on 24Hr MA support on Friday and a 24Hr high in the first hour of Sunday evening trading. Due to the abbreviated 24Hr cycles we saw last week, we are currently overdue for a 24Hr low to be found. A shift to a more normal cycle or even a longer, right-translated 24Hr low would be expected if we are coming out of an overdue multi-day high. Because of the extreme right-translation of the MD high we are currently overdue for a projected MD low. A session low is projected for about an hour after the NY open, and a session high is projected for 12:15pm EST.

Today is a day I will step aside and watch; we are likely on the downside of the multi-day cycle, which means price should drop to the blue MD MA at a minimum over the next day or two.  Currently being overdue for the 24Hr low makes it difficult to get short, however.  Should price find its 24Hr low at the monthly or weekly pivot and bounce, the next lower 24Hr high would be a better place to short.

Analysis for Friday, June 15th

Good morning for Friday, June 15th. The daily chart shows price yesterday opening below the daily pivot but making a higher low and higher high. Price today has opened above the daily pivot and made a higher high, testing higher timeframe resistance in the form of the monthly pivot and MM MA from below. If we are still on the downside of the MW cycle, the trough of which is projected for Tuesday, then price should not take out last week's MW high. It is possible that the MW low has already been seen, but a higher MD low is needed to confirm and that is projected for Sunday evening.

   

The hourly chart shows price yesterday morning making a higher 24Hr low and then making a series of higher session highs and lows before possibly finding its 24Hr high at the 4:30am Central bar this morning. We were overdue for a multi-day high, and yesterday's move and today's halting of it at monthly pivot resistance make it likely that this morning saw that high. A multi-day low is projected for Sunday evening trading. We are currently overdue for a 24Hr low; if we are coming out of a MD high, the 24Hr low would be expected to right-translate in time and also take out the daily pivot to test MD MA support (blue dotted line), though it is possible we will see another lower 24Hr cycle before that occurs. We are in the timeframe to find a session cycle low. A lower session cycle high projected for 10:15am Central is needed to confirm this morning's high was a 24Hr high.  The bias for the morning should be bearish, though I thought the same yesterday.  Any down move today and possibly into Monday should provide a good buying opportunity for the expected strong move up the remainder of next week.

6/14 mid-morning update

Price has apparently put in an earlier-than-projected 24Hr low (though a higher session low is needed to confirm) and taken out the prior 24Hr high.  This whipsawing action had me thinking of avoiding trading today until it resolves itself, and I should have acted on that thought.  Price is possibly attempting to put in a multi-day top today or tomorrow.  There would then be time for one more multi-day low which would coincide with the multi-week low projected for Tuesday (but could possibly come earlier).  When this low is found my belief is we will have a strong rally next week as the market will be on the upside of both the multi-week and multi-month cycles.

Analysis for 6/14

Good morning for Thursday, June 14th. The daily chart shows price yesterday making a higher high and higher low but opening above the daily pivot and MD MA but closing below both. Today price has opened below the daily pivot and thus far been an "inside day" compared to yesterday's price candle. Price thus far appears to be correcting sideways during the downside of the multi-week cycle. The trough of this MW cycle is projected for next Tuesday, though a left-translated low would not be surprising coming out of a multi-month low so it come earlier than projection.   

The hourly chart shows price in a narrow trading range chopping around both the MD and 24Hr MAs. While the Sunday evening MD high is easy to see, there has not yet been an obvious MD low and we are well overdue for one. It is possible that the low came Monday after the close or the Tuesday morning near-double bottom (or in between the two) and that the effects of the cycle were suppressed by the MM cycle and the MW MA which has acted as support. If this is the case, we are currently in the timeframe for a MD high which has likewise not expressed itself in price behavior except for a slightly higher 24Hr low. This may also be due to a longer timeframe cycle (the MW cycle) suppressing smaller timeframe behavior. A 24Hr low is projected for just after the close, and a 24Hr high is projected for overnight, but the 24Hr cycle has been difficult to distinguish at times during this sideways trading. The session cycle has been just as difficult at times and currently I am unable to determine where we are trading in that cycle.  With the 24Hr MA acting as resistance and a 24Hr low projected for the close (and possibly a MD low in front of us), trading to the short side should be the best play today.  Any break above the overnight 24Hr high will signal that the 24Hr low has been put in early and would negate a bearish bias.

Market Analysis for 6/13

Good morning for Wednesday, June 13th. The daily chart shows price yesterday making a lower low and lower high, opening below the daily pivot but closing above it. Price today has opened above the daily pivot but is currently testing the daily pivot and MD MA from above. I am still leaning toward Monday having been a multi-week high, in which case price will have a tough time moving higher until finding its multi-week low projected for early next week. If we are on the upside of the multi-month cycle as I believe, then price could correct sideways while price rides out the MW cycle, but a break of the weekly pivot would not be out of the question given the amount of time remaining before the projected MW low.

The hourly chart shows price yesterday finding support on the green MW MA before finding its 24Hr high just before the close. Price overnight made a one-tick higher high and formed a double-top with the 24Hr high before retreating and is currently testing the daily pivot in search of its 24Hr low. If the 24Hr highs and lows designated on the chart are correct then we are overdue for a 24Hr low. It is possible that the 10:30am Central test of the MW MA yesterday was a short-cycled 24Hr low and that a 24Hr high occured several bars earlier; if this is the case then the last 24Hr low and high will have been half-span shifts and the 24Hr low will not be due until 11:30am Central. There has been no price behavior to indicate that we have yet seen the now-overdue MD low. If price breaks the daily pivot, I would expect another test of the MW MA before finding this MD low. A session low is projected for 10:00am Central.

  

Almost- premarket analysis for 6/12

Good morning for Tuesday, June 12th. The daily chart shows price yesterday making a higher high and lhigher low, but with a close at the lows of the day and below the daily pivot. Price failed intraday at the MM MA and closed at weekly pivot and MD and MW MAs support. Price today has opened below the daily pivot but has found soft support at the MW MA and weekly pivot and is testing the MD MA from below. Just as the MY MA turned the multi-week cycle earlier than projection, the MM MA appears to have turned the MW and MD cycles slightly ahead of projection as well. If yesterday was a MW high, price should have difficulty eclipsing yesterday's high until it puts in a MW low projected for next Monday. Coming out of a MM low it will be interesting to see if the weekly pivot can continue to provide support and create a sideways correction in the search for the MW low. It is possible, also, that yesterday was merely the turn of the MD cycle, and that the MW cycle high is still right-translating; for this to be the case, price would have to revisit yesterday's high in the next couple of days. I don't think this is as likely as yesterday being a MW high, however.

The hourly chart shows price yesterday with a trend-down day, eventually finding a 24Hr low hours after the NY close. Price is currently overdue for a 24Hr high, typical after the right-translated 24Hr low coming out of a multi-day high. Similarly, after the right-translated MD high, we are currently overdue for a MD low. Price is currently finding resistance at the 24Hr MA and support at the MD MA. A session cycle low is projected for an hour after the NY open.

Weekly Projection and Pre-market Analysis for 6/11

Monday, June 11, 2012

Weekly Projection and Pre-market Analysis for 6/11

Good morning for Monday, June 11th. The monthly chart shows price this monthly bar finding soft support on the multi-year MA and attempting to test the multi-month MA from below. Thus far in the month price has made a lower low and lower high, has opened below and is trading below the monthly pivot, and has turned the MM MA downward. This is all behavior characteristic of being on the downside of the multi-month cycle and possibly the multi-year cycle, though more evidence is needed in the form of a lower multi-year high. An inability of price to get above the MM MA on a sustained basis will lend credence to this possibility.

The weekly chart shows price last week making a lower low and lower high than the prior week, but finding support on the MY MA and closing above the weekly pivot and MW MA. Price this week has opened well above the weekly pivot and is challenging the monthly pivot and MM MA from below. I have designated last week as a multi-month low. A multi-month high is projected for the first week of July. The behavior of price at the MM MA over the next couple of weeks will be instrumental in determining where we are in the multi-year cycle.

The daily chart shows price last week making a Monday low and Friday high, classic behavior on the upside of the MW cycle. Price today has opened above the daily pivot and made a higher high and is currently testing the MM MA from below. A multi-week high is projected for tomorrow and there are three possibilities: price can find its MW high on projection; price will find its MW high today, turned by the higher timeframe resistance of the MM MA; or price will right-translate its MW high coming out of a multi-month low. A multi-week low is projected for next Monday.

The hourly chart shows price making a 24Hr low on Friday on MW MA support. A 24Hr high was made in Sunday evening trading. We are overdue for a 24Hr low, and the 24Hr MA currently being tested is a logical place to find it. A multi-day high is projected for Wednesday, though as mentioned in daily chart commentary higher timeframe cycles could turn a shorter-term cycle early or later. We are currently past due for a session high to be made.