Monday 4/20/2015

The monthly chart shows price trading above the monthly pivot (represented by the dots above, below or in each bar) and above the upsloping MM MA - bullish behavior. The inability to get above the February highs is the only negative in the chart; with two more trading weeks left in the month, there is plenty of time to either eliminate the sole negative or to add to it.

The weekly chart shows price last week having made a higher high than the prior week but closing lower and below the weekly pivot on green MW MA support. Price this week opened just below the weekly pivot and is currently trading above it.  

Price still appears to be capped by the upper boundary of the triangle in which price has been trapped. The green MW MA and pink MM MA are at about the same area and provided support for price last week and thus far in the brief trading this week. While this generally argues that price is on the upside of the multi-month and/or multi-year cycles, I am reluctant to say this with certainty given that those same MAs have failed to support price not too long ago.  

The MM low is projected for mid-May, but it is possible that this low occurred early in a half-span shift similar to the early MM high that appeared in February. If the low has been made already, it makes sense that price will continue to find support on the rising MW MA as price searches for its next MM high. The only reason price should have trouble attaining new all-time highs is if the multi-month or multi-year cycle has peaked and rolled over. Until there is some evidence of this in the way of a lower MMH or lower MML, we should anticipate the break out from the triangle should be to the upside.  

The daily chart shows price last week making a Wednesday high and Friday low. Wednesday highs often mark multi-week highs, and this one is no different as the price trading below the downsloping blue MD MA is behavior associated with being on the downside of the MW cycle. The MW low is projected for this Wednesday, though higher timeframe support such as the pink MM MA or monthly pivot could provide support to put this low in early. Until the low is in, price should find resistance at the blue MD MA.

The hourly chart shows price selling off hard on Friday and making a 24Hr low on monthly pivot support. A MD low was projected for today, but it is possible that low was seen on Friday. Price has risen above the 24Hr MW and daily pivot in search of the overdue 24Hr high, further reinforcing the idea that the MD low was Friday. A MD high is projected for tomorrow, but that high could just as easily come in earlier or later; if we are still on the upside of the MD cycle, price should find support for its next 24Hr low (projected for late this afternoon) on the confluence of daily pivot, weekly pivot, 24Hr MA and MW MA support.