Wednesday 4/8/2015

The daily chart shows price yesterday opening and closing above the daily pivot, making a higher high but closing below the prior day's close. Price today has opened below the daily pivot. Price appears to be finding resistance at the MM MA; I had mentioned yesterday that I would not put great meaning behind price being able to close above the MM MA, as price has generally disregarded the MA over the last several weeks. At some point, however, price action will return to a more "normal" level of predictability and will start to respect higher timeframe MAs and pivots again. Thus, I cannot completely disregard the potential bearish implications of price finding resistance at the MM MA. A multi-week high is projected for early next week, but if we are on the downside of the multi-year cycle, the high would be expected to come early and underneath MM MA resistance. If we are still on the upside of the MY cycle, price should get above this resistance before finding the MW cycle on (or even after) projection.

Note that daily chart shows the blue MD MA has turned up. This means that price has been on the upside of the multi-week cycle, requiring me to label a MW low. I settled on the April 1st low; despite the low being one tick higher than the prior week's low, and having a higher low, that date was the exact projection for the MW low and the MD MA did not turn up until after that date.

The hourly chart shows price having made a 24Hr high at 11:00AM yesterday, several hours earlier than projection. Price then sold off, making a lower 24Hr low overnight on MW MA and monthly pivot support. The lower 24Hr low would indicate that yesterday's high was a MD high; that price has found resistance at the daily pivot and 24Hr MA this morning also supports that notion. This means the MD high came in much earlier than projection, which is bearish but carries less meaning when price is being whipsawed through a triangle pattern. The MD low is projected for noon tomorrow but of course is subjected to the same issues while in the triangle.