Friday 10/30/2015

The daily chart shows price yesterday making a higher low, slightly higher high, and slightly lower close versus Wednesday's candle.  Thus far today we have seen a higher high but are little changed from yesterday's close.   Price is still riding on the upside of the MW, MM and highly likely the MY cycles.  A multi-week high is not projected until 11/4, but with the MM high overdue and price running deep into double-top resistance from the May and July highs, it is unclear whether price will hit an all-time high during this MW cycle or will have to wait until year-end.

A new all-time high in the days ahead would certainly be a narrative more to the Government's liking as they struggle with anemic economic growth heading into the heart of the consumer shopping season.  Failure to reach a new high in this move would create headlines of the near-mythical triple top, which would serve only to further dampen consumer sentiment.  While this certainly sounds like I am a conspiracy theorist, with the stock market only one decent day's performance from an all-time high, it would be foolish not to game the headlines.

The hourly chart shows price yesterday making its 24Hr low in pre-market trading on daily pivot/24 Hr support and rising throughout the day until finding its 24Hr high last night.  We find ourselves in much the same situation today, as price found support at the 24Hr MA two bars ago in the timeframe for a 24Hr low to be seen.  The only difference this time is that we are in the timeframe for a multi-day high to be seen, and it is always possible that the overnight high was the MD high.   If so, we would expect to see a lower or equal 24Hr high this afternoon followed by price breaking below daily pivot/24Hr MA support.  

Thursday 10/29/2015

The daily chart shows price yesterday continuing its relentless run on the upside of the multi-month cycle as price broke through the upper channel boundary and is now a stone's throw away from all-time highs.   It is unclear whether price will reach new highs during this multi-week cycle, but with a MW high projected for 11/4 there is certainly enough time left for it to do so. The impending MW high should also be the overdue multi-month high, so it is possible that new highs will have to wait until late November or December if they aren't reached during the next week.

The hourly chart shows price yesterday rising throughout the day on the upside of the MD, MW and MM cycles and making its 24Hr high just after the close.  Price has drifted steadily down in overnight and pre-market trading but appears to have found support at the daily pivot and 24Hr MA.  We are in the timeframe for price to make a 24Hr low, and if we are still on the upside of the MD cycle then daily pivot support should hold and price should trade higher for the remainder of the day.  Should daily pivot support break, it would indicate that yesterday was a multi-day high and price would normally test the MD MA over the next day or two; MD troughs have been muted since the September low retest, however, so a MD low made above this level would be the "new normal".

Wednesday 10/28/2015

The daily chart shows price yesterday making a lower high and lower low but closing little changed from Monday.  Price thus far today has opened above its daily pivot and has made a higher low and higher high.   It appears that we have once again seen a meager downturn of the multi-day cycle that could not even reach the MD MA before turning back up due to the upward push of all longer timeframe cycles.

With AAPL earnings having come and gone with no market impact, we are shockingly in the same spot as we were yesterday; there is still a possibility that Friday was a half-span multi-week (and likely multi-month) high, but the odds are higher that price will continue on to a full cycle with a peak projected for 11/4.

The hourly chart shows price yesterday morning making a 24Hr high below daily pivot/24Hr MA resistance, behavior indicative of being on the downside of the multi-day cycle.   I mentioned that shorting the downturn of the MD cycle has been futile lately but that the odds still favored a trip down to the MD MA for a multi-day low.  Once again, shorting offered very little reward as price found an early 24Hr low well above the MD MA and rallied to take out the morning's 24Hr high, confirming yesterday's low as a multi-day low.

We are currently in the timeframe to see a 24Hr high, and while it will be a higher 24Hr high, price has not yet moved up in any appreciable fashion.  Perhaps the market is waiting for the Fed release this afternoon, but we are in the timeframe to see a multi-day high either today or tomorrow, and a lower MD high than Friday's MD high would indicate that Friday was indeed a half-span MW high.   If this proves to be the case, I would expect the market to finally show a correction of some substance in the coming weeks, with a downward target of the MW MA near 2028 at a minimum.  Of course, a rally above Friday's high on the Fed release will mean that the MW high, and MM high, are still in front of us.

Tuesday 10/27/2015

The monthly chart shows price in October thus far having made a higher low and higher high versus September.   It had been mentioned two weeks ago that while price trading above the MM MA and MY MA was a bullish sign, it would be much more meaningful if price were able to close the month above these levels; we are in the final trading days of the month now, and price is still holding strong.  I've seen price make seemingly crazy moves in the final few days of a monthly bar, however, so a close above all higher-timeframe pivots and MAs is not a given.

The weekly chart shows price last week having made a higher low, high and close for the third straight week.  Price early in this week's candle has been little changed from last week's close. We have yet to see any evidence that price has seen its overdue multi-month high.  With a multi-month low projected for mid-November, it appears likely that we are seeing a bullish right-translation to the multi-month cycle.  Right-translated highs are a sign of bullish strength and would give credence to the belief that the August low was a multi-year low.   Note also that the pink MM MA has turned upward, another indication that the MY low has been seen.

While the evidence mounts that we are again on the upside of the multi-year cycle, it does not mean that this rally will last forever; it does mean that corrections into the MM low should be used to go long for what should be new all-time highs by year end.  When the multi-month high has been seen, price will trade below the green MW MA and likely test the MY MA or MM MA as it searches for its MM low.

The daily chart shows price last week making a Wednesday low and Friday high for the second straight week, a pattern usually reserved for multi-week lows.  Price appears to be stalling at the upper channel trendline and the underside of July/August congestion.   The MW high is not projected to be seen until 11/4, but it was mentioned last week that it is possible that we could see a half-span shift of the MW high which would likely also mark the overdue MM high.  Thus far there is no evidence of this happening, however.  Market-moving news in the form of AAPL earnings will hit after today's close, and we should know then whether we will see a rally into early November or a half-span high that marks the start of a correction into mid-November.

The hourly chart shows price on Friday making a MD high, but while price found resistance at the daily pivot and 24Hr MA for its 24Hr high on Monday, it has also refused to break lower to test the MD MA.  This is abnormal behavior that been seen frequently during this move up out of the September retest lows.  We are already due for a multi-day low to be seen, and whether price will show normal behavior and trade down to the MD MA today is anyone's guess; while shorting the downside of the MD cycle has been an exercise in futility lately, the odds are still on the side of price trading lower throughout the day and testing the MD MA today or tomorrow.

Sunday 10/25/2015 - no blog post until Tuesday 10/27

Apologies but there will be no Monday blog entry this week.

Friday 10/23/2015

The daily chart shows price continuing to power higher on the upside of the multi-week, multi-month and most assuredly the muliti-year cycle.   Price rocketed yesterday on promises out of Europe for more cheap money and the possibility of negative interest rates.   Prices today have made a higher low and higher high on news that China has cut interest rates. The global economies are so gloomy that the market needs to wear shades.

Price is currently testing the upper channel line and July/August congestion resistance.  We are overdue for a multi-month high to be seen, and the extension in time as well as the strength shown during this rally are key reasons to believe that the August low was also the multi-year low.  A multi-week high is projected for 11/4; it is possible that the overdue turn of the multi-month cycle will cause an early MW high anywhere from today through Tuesday, but it is just as likely that we will see a normal length or even a prolonged MW cycle.

Despite the strength of the market, the multi-month cycle will eventually roll over, and this will provide a decent swing short but an even better opportunity to get long.   It is vital that no shorts be attempted until price closes below the MD MA and turns that average downward.

The hourly chart shows price surging above 24Hr MA, daily pivot, and MD MA resistance yesterday and never looking back.  This is behavior indicative of price being on the upside of the MD cycle, and I have marked the prior 24Hr high and low as a MD high and low.  Price overnight made a 24Hr low far above the 24Hr MA and daily pivot, another sign of the underlying strength of the longer timeframe cycles pushing this market higher.  We are due for a Session low sometime near the market open; price should find support for this low on or above the gold Session MA and then move higher until the close, as the 24Hr high is not projected until then.

Thursday 10/22/2015

The daily chart shows price yesterday making a higher high but lower low and lower close versus Tuesday.  Price closed below the MD MA and just below the weekly pivot.  Thus far today price has made a higher low and is currently testing the MD MA from below.

Yesterday I finally designated last week's brief dip below the MD MA as a MW high and low, mostly out of boredom in waiting for the market to show a more normal pullback.  There is a possibility that yesterday will instead prove to be the MW high (Wednesday highs often mark MW highs), but unless price declines further and at least tests the MW MA I will stick with the original designation.

The hourly chart finally showed some normal behavior, as price fell late in the day and made a 24Hr low only two bars past projection, the first near-normal periodicity seen in a week.  Price found support near the weekly pivot and has drifted modestly higher in overnight trading.  We are in the timeframe for price to make a 24Hr high and the 24Hr low is projected for after the close.  We are also in the timeframe to see a multi-day low.  If yesterday was the MD low, then price will make a higher 24Hr low today.   If the MD low has yet to be seen, then price will obviously take out yesterday's low, which will place it in the vicinity of the MW MA and bring into question whether last week's high or yesterday's high was the real MW high.

Wednesday 10/21/2015

The daily chart shows price yesterday making a slightly higher high but slightly lower close versus Monday's candle.  Price today opened below its daily pivot but has thus far made a higher high as price continues to ride MD MA support.  This is behavior indicative of price being on the upside of the multi-week cycle.  I have marked last week's anemic dip as a MW high and immediate MW low, so price can easily March higher until the next projected MW high on 11/4.  Given the overdue nature of the multi-month cycle, it is possible that we could see a half-span shift of the MW cycle meaning an earlier MW high arriving early next week, but in any case the path of least resistance continues to the upside.  Nobody should consider shorting this market; quite the opposite, any dip into a MW and/or MM low should be used to get long.

The hourly chart shows price yesterday continuing to chop above and below the daily pivot/24Hr MA.  The 24Hr highs and lows are coming in at much shorter than normal intervals, and the 24Hr MA has been unable to pull away from the daily pivot for three days now (something I can't remember seeing before).  This is all abnormal behavior and I can only imagine that it is due to smaller timeframe cycles trying to roll over into their troughs but being streamrolled by the powerful tsunami of longer timeframe cycles that are still moving hard up.

It is unclear where we are in the daily cycle; it is possible that another early 24Hr high was seen overnight followed by another early 24Hr low made on daily pivot/24Hr MA support.  It is also possible that those highs and lows were only a Session high and low and  price will take out the overnight high around the time of the NY open.  Truthfully, it is irrelevant which scenario is correct; there is currently no persistent periodicity to the daily cycle; and without this there can be no predictability.  Without predictability, there is no edge, and without an edge there should be no trading.  Just like yesterday, I will avoid daytrading today.

Tuesday 10/20/2015

The daily chart shows price yesterday making a slightly higher high and close versus Friday's candle as price continues to show no signs of weakness.  Price today has thus far made a slightly slower high but is little changed versus yesterday.

As mentioned yesterday, it is unclear whether last week's brief dip below the MD MA constituted a multi-week high and low. The longer price goes from here without a deeper pullback, the more likely it is that we are on the upside of a new MW cycle.  Should we be on the upside of a fresh MW cycle, price has plenty of time to get back to the July/August congestion area or even make a new all-time high before the next cycle downturn.  More importantly, the muted MW low indicates that we are on the upside of powerful longer-term cycles- the multi-month and multi-year cycles.  This means that regardless of how high this particular MW cycle takes us, new all-time highs should be seen by year's end.

The hourly chart shows price yesterday churning above and below the daily pivot and 24Hr MA. The slightly lower 24Hr low seen just after the close means that we have seen a multi-day high, but price again refuses to behave normally and drop down to the MD MA for its MD low.   This is yet another indication that strong higher-timeframe cycles are overwhelming the shorter cycles.  While this behavior is not normal, that does not make it rare; the multi-month cycle will eventually lose steam and start to top out, enabling the MW and MD cycles to assert themselves again.

As for today, a 24Hr low is projected for late morning and we are overdue for a MD low to be seen.  Given the underlying strength in this market, however, it would not surprise me if yesterday was the MD low and that we have already seen the 24Hr low several bars ago.  The daily cycle has gotten very choppy, and the 24Hr MA has been unable to pull away from the daily pivot. Until price begins to show a more normal daily cycle, I will refrain from doing any daytrades or scalps.

Monday 10/19/2015

The monthly chart shows price in October thus far having made a higher low and higher high. After opening below the monthly pivot, yearly pivot and the MM and MY MAs, price is now trading above all of these levels.  The fact that price was able to regain all of these higher-timeframe support/resistance levels makes a strong case for the August low having been a multi-year low, though the ability to close the month above these levels will be far more important.

The weekly chart shows price last week having made a higher low and higher high as price continued on the upside of the multi-month cycle.  The MM high is past due, and the MM low is projected for the week ending 11/13.  When the MM high has been seen, price will then trade below its weekly pivot and the green MW MA and then turn that MA downward.

The daily chart shows price last week having made a Wednesday low and Friday high, a fairly uncommon scenario.  Wednesday lows usually occur at multi-week lows, and price did trade below the MD MA on that day; given that we had been overdue for the MW high and should have been falling into a MW low, it is possible that last Tuesday was a MW high and Wednesday was a MW low made on what was then the weekly pivot.   If so, it is yet another sign of the strength of the cycles that are pushing price upward; this would be further evidence that price is now on the upside of the multi-year cycle.

If we have already seen the MW high and low, the next MW high would not be projected until the first week of November. Given that we are overdue for the MM high, however, it is possible that we could see a half-span shift in the MW cycle, meaning the MW (and MM) high would come in around 10/26.  In any case, price has plenty of time left on the upside of the MW cycle to reach the upper channel boundary and overhead resistance from July/August. 

There is a possibility that last week's brief dip did not mark a MW high and low, and that price will soon fall back below the MD MA and turn that average downward as price searches for its overdue MW low.   Given the overdue nature of the MW high, however, unless price drops early this week it will be difficult to imagine that the MW high and low were not already seen.

The hourly chart shows price making a multi-day low on Wednesday and then riding 24Hr MA support higher the remainder of the week.    Price found support on the 24Hr MA numerous times in Sunday evening trading and it is unclear whether a 24Hr high and subsequent 24Hr low were seen after Friday's close.  It does appear likely that a 24Hr high was seen overnight as price has finally broken 24Hr MA support.   A 24Hr low is not projected until near today's close.

We are in the timeframe for a MD high to be seen, so it is very possible that the pre-market 24Hr high was also a MD high.   If so, price should test the weekly pivot before finding its MD low.  A move lower down to the MD MA would also not be out of the question.  Should those areas fail to support price, it would indicate that last week did not see a turn in the MW cycle and that instead this morning was the MW high.   If this is the case, it lessens the strength of the argument that the MY low was seen in August, but we will address that if the situation arises.

Friday 10/16/2015 - Yesterday was the death of the bear

The bears had every chance to show their strength yesterday.  We were in the timeframe to see a multi-month high and overdue to see a multi-week high.  We had just made a multi-day high on Tuesday, giving us every opportunity for a large decline on the downsides of the MM, MW and MD cycles.  Price instead found support on the weekly pivot and printed a bullish wide range bar, taking out Tuesday's high in the process.

It is possible that price needs one more multi-day cycle before finding its multi-week (and multi-month) high, but it is just as likely that the weekly pivot provided support for a multi-week low, which would indicate that price is still on the upside of the multi-month cycle.   It would be unusual for price to not see at least another week of higher prices before the next MW high, which would be a half-span high and very likely also be a MM high.  If we see a full MW cycle, price could easily rally for another two weeks.

With the major indices trading below their 200 day MAs and below lots of overhead congestion, all is not rosy for the market.  Perhaps we will see a lower multi-month high made in the next week or two, and price will decline sharply on the downside of the MW and MM cycles and breathe new life in the bearish argument.   Extended, right-translated cycle tops like what we are seeing in the MW and MM cycles, however, argue that price is on the upside of the larger multi-year cycle.  The failure of the pink MM MA to act as resistance and the subsequent upturn of that MA also argue that price is on the upside of the MY cycle.

My short position on the market has been closed out at loss as price took out the Tuesday MD high.  The irony is that while the title of my 9/30/2015 blog entry was "a likely multi-week low was seen yesterday", I chose not to go long for that cycle upswing as I believed there was potential to see a muted upside move with the longer-term cycles headed downward. Instead, I missed out on a huge rally, going short at the likely MW high which has possibly seen the same muted move down that I feared for the prior upswing.  My thinking was sound but 100% incorrect, likely because we are on the upside of the multi-year cycle while my belief was that the multi-year low had not yet been seen.

The hourly chart shows price on Thursday making a 24Hr (and multi-day) low on weekly pivot support then rising to find its 24Hr high at MD MA resistance in yesterday's pre-market trading. Price found support for its 24Hr low on daily pivot support around noon and then rocketed higher into the close.  A 24Hr low is projected for noon, and the fact that price is merely drifting sideways into this low is further evidence of the strength of the higher-timeframe cycles pushing price higher. While 24Hr lows (and highs) are almost always made against the 24Hr MA or daily pivot, it would not shock me if price fails to drop that far and price rockets higher yet again on the open.   

Thursday 10/15/2015

The daily chart shows price yesterday making a lower high and lower low versus Tuesday's candle and closing below the MD MA.  Price today opened below its daily pivot but is currently trading above it and testing the MD MA from below.

The Friday/Tuesday double top was likely a multi-week top, as price has traded below the MD MA and has caused that average to flatten.  The MW low is projected for tomorrow. It is possible that the weekly pivot has provided support for that low to be seen yesterday; if so, the weekly pivot acting as support for the MW low would indicate that price is still on the upside of the multi-month cycle, and price would likely have another 1 1/2 - 3 weeks (half span or full MW cycle) of upside before the MM high is seen.   If the MW high was also a MM high, I would expect weekly pivot support to break and price to test the MW MA before finding support for its MW low.  A lower MW high would then follow and price would have another leg down before the projected mid-November MM low.

I am currently short, and a break below yesterday's low will be an opportunity to add to those shorts; a move above Tuesday's high will force me to exit my shorts at a loss and go long.

The hourly chart shows price yesterday making a lower 24Hr low at daily pivot resistance and then dropping down to the weekly pivot where it found support for its 24Hr low.  Price moved higher overnight, trading through daily pivot and 24Hr MA resistance; this indicates that yesterday's low was likely a MD low.  Price found resistance overnight/pre-market at the MD MA; while the 24Hr high is not projected until late morning, it is possible that MD MA resistance has put in the 24Hr high early.   If so, we should see a lower Session high by late morning and then price will probe lower for its 24Hr low. If price finds support for its 24Hr low on or above the 24Hr MA or daily pivot, it will indicate that price is on the upside of the multi-day cycle.  We would then expect price to trade higher and again attempt to break MD MA resistance.

Wednesday 10/14/2015

The daily chart shows price yesterday making a slightly higher high but lower low and lower close versus Monday's candle as price made a multi-day high and closed just below MD MA support.   Price today has opened below its daily pivot and is currently testing the MD MA from below.

With price on the downside of the multi-day cycle, the big question is whether yesterday was also a multi-week and even a multi-month high, or whether we will see another MD cycle before those highs are seen.   If the MW and MM high are not yet in, price should rally and close back above the MD MA today and continue its upward march toward upper channel (and July/August congestion) resistance.  If yesterday was also a MW (and likely MM) high, price should likely test at least the green MW MA before finding its MW low projected for 10/16.   If the multi-year low is still in front of us, price should take out the August low by the mid-November MM low projection.    In any case, a favorable risk/reward for shorting is present with a stop loss above yesterday's high.

The hourly chart shows price making a slightly higher 24Hr high at noon yesterday and finally selling off down to the MD MA.  A lower low was seen overnight, so I have marked yesterday as a multi-day high; it is likely but not certain that the overnight low was a 24Hr low, since price is now finding support on the gold Session MA and testing the 24Hr MA.   If we are still on the downside of the MD cycle, price should find resistance at the 24Hr MA or daily pivot for its 24Hr high by noon and then trade lower throughout the day and take out the overnight low.  

Tuesday 10/13/2015

The daily chart shows price yesterday making a higher low but exact same high versus Friday's candle.  A double-top of 24Hr highs usually marks a multi-day high, and thus far today price is trading below its daily pivot and has made a lower low versus yesterday, behavior indicative of being on the downside of the MD cycle.

Given that we are in the timeframe to see a multi-month high being made, and that we are slightly overdue to see a multi-week high being made, we must naturally be concerned that this MD high will also prove to be the MW and MM highs as well.   If there is to be another MD cycle before finding the MW and MM highs then price should find support at the blue MD MA for its MD low before turning higher.   If we are also making a MM and MW high, price should at least test the weekly pivot (the green MW MA and pink MM MA are more likely targets) for the 10/16 projected MW low. The monthly pivot at 1927.17 (or the yet-to-be-determined November monthly pivot) is a likely target for the projected mid-November multi-month low.  If we are still on the downside of the multi-year cycle, we should expect the August low to be taken out.

The hourly chart shows price making a 24Hr high just after the close yesterday that was an exact double-top with Friday's 24Hr high.   Price in overnight trading broke below 24Hr MA support and took out yesterday's 24Hr low, indicating that price in now on the downside of the multi-day cycle.   We are in the timeframe for a MD low to be seen, so it is possible that the next 24Hr low (projected for late morning) will also be the MD low.   If we are also on the downside of the MW and MM cycles as discussed above, it is likely that the MD cycle will extend in time and that price will trade below the MD MA before finding its MD low.   I would then expect a minor rally to make a lower MD low before price falls off more sharply into the MW cycle trough.  

Monday 10/12/2015

The monthly chart shows price thus far this month having made a higher low and higher high versus September.  Price is currently trading above the MM and MY MAs and the monthly and yearly pivot, bullish behavior that supports the notion that the August low was also a multi-year low.  Should price be trading above these levels at the month's close, it will carry far more weight than it does now, but the bulls have certainly had the upper hand thus far in October.

The weekly chart shows price last week having made a higher low and higher high versus the prior bar, closing up strongly above all higher timeframe pivots and MAs.  We are in the timeframe to see a multi-month high, and it seems very likely that it will be a lower MM high versus the July MM high.  The more important issue will be where price makes its next MM low, projected for 11/13.  A higher MM low would confirm the August low as a multi-year low and be extremely bullish for stocks.   Needless to say, a lower MM low means price will be falling more than 200 S&P points from current levels.

The daily chart shows price last week making a Monday low and Friday high, typical bullish behavior in an uptrend.   We are slightly overdue to see a multi-week high, but price shows no indications yet that the high has been seen.   When the MW high has been made, price will trade below the blue MD MA and turn that average downward as price searches for support for its MW low which is projected for 10/16.

The hourly chart shows price having made a 24Hr high before the NY open on Friday, but dropping only slightly before making its 24Hr low several bars later.  After uneventful Sunday evening trading, price has traded sideways along the daily pivot and the 24Hr MA.

We are in the timeframe to see a multi-day high being made, and It is unclear whether the brief pop in price several bars ago was a lower 24Hr high; if so, price should break below daily pivot/24Hr MA support and trade down over the next several days to test the MD MA.   Since we are also in the timeframe to see a MW and MM high being made, the decline could be much more severe, possibly even taking out the August lows in the weeks ahead.  While there is no guarantee that we will not see one more MD cycle before seeing a MM and MW high, a clear break of 24Hr MA support should provide a very profitable shorting opportunity.

Friday 10/9/2015

The daily chart shows price making a relentless move higher on the upside of the multi-week and multi-month cycles.  While originally there was some question as to whether the 9/17 MW high was also a MM high, price has answered definitively that it was not.  So price continues to search for its overdue MW high, in the timeframe to also see its MM high (projected for this week).  Just as the MM cycle has caused the MW cycle to extend, it is possible that the MM cycle may extend as well if the multi-year low was seen in August.  The green dashed upper channel boundary, once a pipe dream target for this MW cycle, now looks very achievable.

The hourly chart has become very difficult to analyze as the daily and multi-day cycles have been steamrolled by the strength of the MW and MM cycles.  It is possible that price saw a 24Hr high in overnight trading, followed a few hours later by a 24Hr low made well above 24Hr MA/daily pivot support.  If so, it is yet a further display of the strength of the larger timeframe cycles, similar to when the MD low was made far above the MD MA.   If so (and likely even if it weren't), we should expect a trend day up today with price rising throughout the day.

The next multi-day high is projected for Monday. Given that we are overdue for a MW high to be seen and are in the window to expect a MM high, it becomes more likely that the next MD high will also be a MW and MM high. Despite the great strength shown in this rally off the lows, the move down from the next MM high should provide an excellent shorting opportunity. If August was a multi-year low, we can still expect price to move down to at least the green MW MA before finding support for its MM low. If the August low was not a MY low, price will surpass that target and take out the August low.

Thursday 10/8/2015

Price yesterday made a lower low but higher high and close versus Tuesday as price continued on the upside of the multi-week cycle.   Price thus far today has made a lower high and is trading slightly lower.  We are just past due to see a MW high; readers of this blog will know that Wednesdays often mark MW highs or lows, but thus far there is little indication that yesterday was a MW high.  Price closing below its daily pivot would be the first necessary indication, followed by price trading below the blue MD MA and turning that average downward.

The hourly chart shows price yesterday making what appears to be a 24Hr high late morning and finding support on the 24Hr MA and daily pivot for its 24Hr low just one bar later.  Price has since coiled around the daily pivot and 24Hr MA but has not taken out yesterday's high or low. Should price find resistance here at the daily pivot and trade lower today, I will mark yesterday's high as the multi-day high.  Should price break above daily pivot resistance and take out yesterday's high, I will mark Tuesday's high and low as the MD high and MD low.  A break of the overnight lows should lead to a test of the MD MA, and likely the green MW MA/monthly pivot confluence area over the next several sessions.

Wednesday 10/7/2015

The daily chart shows price yesterday making a higher high and higher low, closing slightly down versus Monday's candle but above the daily pivot.  Price thus far today has opened below the daily pivot but has made a higher high and is currently trading above yesterday's close. Yesterday was the projection for the multi-week high, and with a sell-off late in the day and a down close it appeared that maybe the projection would be spot-on; today's action obviously indicates that the MW high is still in front of us.

Readers of this blog will know that Wednesdays often mark MW highs or MW lows, so there is certainly the possibility that today will mark the MW high and the bears will then get to show what they have left in the tank as price searches for its MW low, projected for 10/16.   It is possible, however, that the overnight low marked a MD low (this will be discussed in the hourly chart commentary).   If so, a MD low made so far above the MD MA indicates enormous underlying strength in the larger timeframe cycles; such strength from the MM and MY cycles could easily extend the MW high in time, and has occasionally even muted the MW cycle so that MW lows become hard to discern.  Should today not prove to be the MW high, the argument for the August low being a MY low will strengthen dramatically.

The hourly chart shows price yesterday making a higher 24Hr high just after the NY open and trading down throughout the day, finally breaking daily pivot support several hours after the NY close. This early 24Hr high and the breaking of daily pivot support should have meant that the MD high (and likely the MW high) was in, and price should have traded down to the blue MD MA in search of support for its MD low.  Price instead regained the 24Hr MA and daily pivot and has made a higher high in pre-market trading.  My short position was sadly opened at what proved to be an early 24Hr low and I was stopped out for a decent loss as price broke through the daily pivot en route to taking out yesterday's high.  

As mentioned above, yesterday's early 24Hr high and the after-hours early 24Hr low may have been a MW high and MW low.  The lower 24Hr low certainly argues that it was, as does the slight downward turn in the white 24Hr MA.  There was no lower 24Hr high, however, and price came nowhere near the MD MA which is usually provides support or resistance for MD highs/lows.   It is quite possible, however, that the higher timeframe cycles are muting the MD cycle (and possibly the MW cycle).  This would be extremely bullish and would indicate that the multi-month and multi-year cycles are moving up strongly.   I am open to the possibility that the MD high (and MW high) will instead be seen today, but failure to do so will indicate that rather than the MW high providing a great shorting opportunity, we must look instead at the next MW low as a good buying opportunity.

Tuesday 10/6/2015

Note:  My apologies for the late posting of today's commentary as I forgot to hit the "publish" button.

Price yesterday made a higher low and higher high versus Friday's candle, closing sharply higher above all higher timeframe pivots and MAs. Price continued on the upside of the multi-week cycle, and overcoming resistance in the forms of the MW MA and MM MA in the process is certainly bullish. It should be noted that on the weekly and monthly charts, price is just meeting MM MA resistance. 

 A MW high is projected for today, but that does not mean that the cycle cannot extend in time and allow price to eclipse its September MW high. That would be about as much bullishness as one could expect out of this cycle, for the bears should get to show what they have left in the latter half of the week as price begins its search for the next MW low.

The hourly chart shows price yesterday rising throughout the day an making its 24Hr high at the close.  Price overnight drifted down slightly and appears to have found its 24Hr low on daily pivot and 24Hr MA support, behavior indicative of price being on the upside of the multi-day cycle.

It was mentioned yesterday that we would normally expect another daily cycle or two before seeing a MD high being made, but given that we are in the timeframe to be seeing a MW high, it is possible that yesterday's high could end up being the MW (and thus MD) high.  Given that the MW high is projected for today, however, and the 24Hr high is not projected until near the close, it is even more likely that we will see another trend day up.  Should price fail to eclipse yesterday's high (or double-top) and then trade below the daily pivot, it will signal that the MD (and very likely the MW high) has been seen and should provide an excellent shorting opportunity into a test of the monthly pivot/MW MA/MD MA confluence area at 1925-1927.

Monday 10/5/2015

The monthly chart shows price in September having closed below its monthly pivot, yearly pivot, and MM and MY MAs.  Price early in this month's candle has opened below its monthly pivot but is currently trading higher and testing the MM MA for resistance.

With price having made a multi-year high in May, price has traded below the pink MM MA and led that average lower as price seeks out support for its multi-year low.  We are already past projection for the MY low; in fact, price saw an inversion in which its MY high carried past projection and came at the projection date for the MY low.   Inversions can obviously be seen more frequently on the smaller timeframe charts, and they often result in the next cycle peak/trough occurring a half-cycle span later.   If that were to be the case here, the MY low may not be seen until December or January.   It could be, of course, that the MY low was already seen in August, but price has not yet given us enough evidence to assume this is the case. While price closing above its monthly pivot would be such evidence, trading above it this early in the month means little.

The weekly chart shows price last week having made a lower high and lower low but higher close versus the prior week's candle.    Price early in this week's bar has opened well above its weekly pivot and the MW MA and has made a higher high. This week is the projected candle for the multi-month high to be seen.   It is possible that the high has already been seen (the bar marked with a "?"), but we will see where this rally takes us before making that determination. Unless the MY low has been seen, price should find resistance at the MM MA or MY MA. The ability of price to trade above those higher timeframe resistance areas would make a strong argument for the bulls.

The daily chart shows price last week making a Tuesday low and Friday high which is very bullish behavior.  Price was able to close above the monthly and weekly pivots and with today's action (though very early in the candle) has turned the MD MA upward.   This is all behavior associated with price being on the upside of the MW (and perhaps MM) cycle, and I have marked last week's low as a MW low. A MW high is projected for tomorrow, and the MM MA is a logical place for the MW high to be seen, just as it provided resistance for the prior MW high. The ability of price to eclipse the prior MW high and perhaps trade to the upper channel resistance line would be a more bullish result that would strengthen the argument that the August low was a MY low.

The hourly chart shows price making a 24Hr high just before the jobs data was released and plummeting on the news to make a 24Hr low (and MD low). Price then rallied sharply throughout the day and has continued to drift higher in Sunday evening and pre-market trading. We are in the timeframe to see a 24Hr high, and a 24Hr low is projected for shortly after the open.

We would normally expect to see at least one more daily cycle before seeing a MD high, but with the MW high projected for tomorrow and price trading at the MM MA, it is possible that the next 24Hr high will also be a MD high. If so, the ball will be back in the bear's court and the remainder of the day should see sharp selling. If the MW high comes in on projection (or even extends), price should find a 24Hr low on or even above the 24Hr MA before noon today and trade higher for the remainder of the day.  

Friday 10/2/2015

The daily chart shows price yesterday making a higher low and higher high versus Wednesday's candle and finding resistance at the weekly pivot.  Price today has again found resistance at the weekly pivot and is currently trading lower.

Price has been rallying on the upside of the multi-day cycle, and it is becoming more likely that it has also been on the upside of the multi-week cycle, but we have not yet seen a higher multi-day low or the upturn of the MD MA to confirm that Tuesday was a MW low.  A MW high is projected for 10/6, and it will be interesting to see if the weekly pivot/MW MA provides resistance to put in this high before projection, or if price can reach (or exceed) the monthly pivot or MM MA before the MW high is seen.  An early MW high under weekly pivot resistance would indicate that we are indeed on the downside of the multi-month cycle and open up the likelihood of significant price weakness in the weeks ahead.

The hourly chart shows price yesterday making a 24Hr low on daily pivot support and rallying into the close and in overnight trading.  Price paused at weekly pivot and MW MA resistance in today's pre-market trading until a weak jobs number sent price sharply lower.  A 24Hr high was obviously seen this hourly bar, which confirms yesterday's high as a MD high.   A 24Hr low is projected for early afternoon, and we are also in the timeframe to be seeing a MD low made.  If price has seen an early MW high, it is likely that the MD low could extend in time.  If the MW high is still ahead of us, price should make a higher MD low than the 9/29 MD low and head higher into next week.

Thursday 10/1/2015

Yesterday we made a higher low and higher high versus Tuesday's candle, closing above the declining MD MA.   Price thus far today has opened above its daily pivot and made a higher high, testing the weekly pivot from below.  As mentioned yesterday, it seems likely that Monday was a multi-week low.  

The next week will be very important for the bulls, as the multi-week high is not projected until 10/6.   Should price find resistance at the weekly pivot/MW MA area for an early MW high, it would indicate that price is still on the downside of the multi-month cycle and we should expect lower lows to be seen.  Resistance at the higher levels of the monthly pivot and MM MA would suggest that price is on the upside of the MM cycle but still on the downside of the multi-year cycle.   If price can rise above these areas of resistance, it will bolster the idea that the August low was a multi-year low.

In yesterday's hourly chart commentary it was mentioned that a 24Hr high was projected for late morning, but that if price was on the upside of the MW cycle as well as the MD cycle, I expected the 24Hr high to extend in time and allow price to eclipse the MD MA.   It is uncertain at this point whether price indeed made a late morning 24Hr high followed by a 24Hr low two bars later at 24Hr MA support, or if the after-hours/overnight move up to the weekly pivot was part of the same daily cycle.  

We are in the timeframe to expect that a 24Hr high may also be a multi-day high, and the weekly pivot would be a logical place for that MD high to be found.  Normally we would expect price to then break below 24Hr MA and daily pivot support as it searches for its multi-day low. In this case, however, the MD MA lies in between the 24Hr MA and the daily pivot, and if price is on the upside of the MW cycle, price should find support at the MD MA.   It is also possible that price has not yet seen its MD high, and that price will find support right here at the 24Hr MA for its 24Hr low and trade higher throughout the day.

While the bulls are hardly in great shape, having just seen a lower multi-week low, the market is certainly constructive for them in the short term. We are already in the timeframe to expect that the next 24Hr low (or the one after) will also be a multi-day low.  A higher MD low confirms that price is on the upside of the MW cycle.  We would then have until the next MW high (projected for 10/6) for the bulls to show what they've got.