Tuesday, 3/31/2015

Price had a big move up yesterday, closing above MD and MW MA resistance and weekly pivot and monthly pivot resistance, and just above MM MA resistance. Thus far today, price has opened above the daily pivot but is currently trading below it and is testing the weekly pivot for support. If we are on the upside of the monthly cycle, the weekly pivot should hold; however, lately price has not respected normal support/resistance areas, instead passing up and down through them as price forms a triangle. A MW low is projected for tomorrow. Today is the last day of the month. Anything can happen, but an important area to watch today is the monthly pivot at 2057.25 on the downside; a close below that increases the possibility that a multi-year top was made in February.

The hourly chart shows price having made a 24Hr low overnight Sunday on 24Hr MA and daily pivot support, then finding two higher session lows during the day on Session MA support (in gold) on its way to the 24Hr high made at the close. A lower session high was made 5 bars later under Session MA resistance which confirmed that price was now moving lower in search of the 24Hr low.

We are currently overdue for the 24Hr low. That the 24Hr MA or daily pivot could not provide support for this low indicates that we are on the downside of the multi-day cycle. Price appears to have made at least a session low (and possibly 24Hr low) in the area of the weekly pivot and MD MA support. As noted in the daily chart commentary, price is passing through these areas with greater regularity than normal, so I have less confidence than normal that price will hold here. The multi-day low is projected for after the close, and a 24Hr high is projected for the close, adding to the uncertainty. Increased uncertainty equals fewer trades and smaller position sizes for me. I expect this to be a very interesting day.

Monday, 3/31/2015 - the modestly late Monday update.

The monthly chart rarely receives long commentary in my Monday morning posts; any timeframe's candlestick/bar only tells the full story after it has completed, so even when the bar appears to be doing something worrisome, it is always important to remember that price is always capable of erasing that action by the close of the candlestick. With the monthly chart, this generally means that there are usually three weeks out of each month where the chart's picture can be described in a few sentences (I know, shorter than this explanation).

With only two trading days left in the monthly candle, price is a mere 5 points above its monthly pivot and some 28 points above the MM MA. Why is this important? All of the analysis in this blog flows from the same core concepts. I mention most frequently in the hourly chart commentary that the Session Moving Average will support (or resist) price until the 24Hr high (or low) is in. I mention that the white 24Hr MA or daily pivot will support (or resist) price until the multi-day high (or low) is in, and that the blue MD MA or weekly pivot will support (or resist) price until the multi-week high (or low) is in. In each case, the component MA or pivot is the backbone of the move into and out of the highs and lows of the cycle of the next larger timeframe. For the monthly chart, we are looking at price interaction with the monthly pivot and MM MA to ascertain where price is in the multi-year cycle. The projection for the multi-year high is next month, but this projection means nothing compared to price action, and thus far price action as reflected by this month's candlestick is more bullish than bearish in regards to the multi-year cycle; while we have made a lower high than last month and are currently trading below this month's open, price is trading above its upsloping MM MA and has found support and bounced off of the monthly pivot.

The weekly chart shows price last week's candlestick making a higher high, lower low and lower close versus the prior week.  This calls into serious question whether we have seen the multi-month low earlier this month or are still on the downside of the MM cycle. Early in this week's action, price has opened below the weekly pivot and is trading up slightly to test this pivot and the MW MA. Notice the MW MA is flattening out after last week's bar had turned it upward in last Monday's post, only to have price sell off into the end of the week and turn the MA back down. Price appears to be consolidating sideways with a pick up in volatility the last several weeks. The consolidation will ultimately break out in the direction of the larger cycle. If the MY cycle is still searching for its high, price will not break below the January lows. Of course, a move to new highs can erase the concerns that the MY cycle has rolled over; in fact, with price so close to the highs, it is the only thing that can erase these concerns.  

The daily chart shows price having made a Monday high and Thursday low last week, with Friday being an inside day that closed above its daily pivot but below lots of higher timeframe pivots and MAs. Thus far today price has opened above the daily pivot and is bumping against the underside of weekly pivot and MD and MW MA resistance. The multi-week low is projected for Wednesday. When it is in, price will trade above the MD MA and bend it upward. Until then, expect it to provide resistance.

The hourly chart shows price having made a 24Hr low overnight on daily pivot and 24Hr MA support, behavior associated with being on the upside of the MD cycle. We are currently overdue for the MD high. Higher timeframe resistance in the form of the MD and MW MAs above are logical places for the MD high to be found if we are still on the downside of the MW cycle. Price is currently testing the MD MA in the timeframe for a session high to be made. A higher session high means that we have not yet found the 24Hr high, which is projected for overnight; a double-top or lower session high means that the 24Hr high was made early against higher timeframe resistance. A break of a trendline connecting the two most recent session lows runs roughly parallel to the current gold session MA angle of ascent and will provide relatively timely warning that the 24Hr high is in.  

Friday, 3/27/2015

The daily chart shows price yesterday opening beneath the daily pivot and monthly pivot and making a lower high and lower low compared to Wednesday. Price today has thus far opened above the daily pivot and has formed an inside bar. In Monday morning's commentary it was mentioned that the MW MA on the weekly chart had turned up, but that there was plenty of time left in the week for price to turn lower and bend the MW MA back down with it; this has indeed happened on the weekly chart (not shown). Price is still searching for the multi-week low projected for Tuesday or Wednesday of next week, and possibly for the multi-month low that could be six more weeks out.

The hourly chart shows a 24Hr low being made at the 6:00am bar. I had mentioned that normally I would look to get long out of a higher session low due at the 12:00pm bar but that lately the 24Hr lows were leading directly into a 24Hr high. Well, in this instance (and in most instances), price did make a higher session low at the 11:00am candle five bars after the 24Hr low (5-7 bars is the session cycle length), and I did take a profitable long trade, though the 24Hr high came in shortly after.   

Price is still overdue for the MD low. The projection for the 24Hr low was at the 6:00am bar, which thus far has been the low; if that low holds, then we will mark yesterday morning's low as the MD low. Sadly, even if this is the case, it is quite possible that the overnight double top against the underside of the monthly pivot marked the MD high. I will wait until price (hopefully) clears up this situation before making any such designations.  

As with yesterday, price will be in the window for a session low around the 12:00pm bar. If the 24Hr low is in, this session low will be a higher low and price will then try to break above 24Hr MA, daily pivot, and monthly pivot resistance. If that session low takes out this morning's low, it increases the odds that there was an intervening 24Hr low between the double top and thus increases the odds that price will decline throughout the day.

Thursday, 3/26/2015

The daily chart shows price yesterday opening below the daily pivot and the MD MA and closing sharply lower below the MW and MM MAs and on monthly pivot support. Price thus far today opened below the monthly pivot and is trading lower, challenging the recent March lows. I have marked the recent swing high as a MW high, and the MW low is due early next week.

If price takes out the recent MWL, it will mean that we will have had lower MWHs and lower MWLs- action indicative of being on the downside of the multi-month cycle; I had long since marked the February high as a MMH on the weekly chart (shown Mondays) based on the downward turn of the MW MA. I had marked the March low with a "?" as a potential MML, but if that low is taken out then obviously price is still searching for its MML. There could be another few months before the MML is found if the cycle were to be of normal length, time for this MW cycle to complete and another MW cycle with a lower high and lower low to unfold. A more optimistic scenario would be price finding a low this week above the recent March low and continuing higher. Price is capable of either of these actions.

One thing is certain, however. A multi-month high was made in February, nine weeks after the prior MMH - an extremely abbreviated cycle that calls into question the status of the multi-year cycle. Add in the disregard price has been showing of late for the monthly pivot and MM MA, and I get even more concerned that we are currently on the backside of the MY cycle. If so, then the scenario of another couple months of searching for a MML will be the more likely scenario, with the yearly pivot at 1948 and the MY MA at 1901 (and rising) would be areas of likely support.

On the hourly chart, I have marked the 6:00am bar yesterday as the 24Hr high, a possibility mentioned yesterday. Price then slashed through the weekly pivot, the MW MA, and finally the monthly pivot before finding what may have been a 24Hr low at the close. If that was indeed a 24Hr low, then the 24Hr high was made several bars later under monthly pivot resistance. The session MA never turned up (it merely flattened out), leaving open the possibility that a 24Hr low has not made at the close and opening up the possibility that the 24Hr low was made at 6:00am this morning. Price is currently above the session MA as it searches for an overdue session high. Normally, I would say to look for a higher session low around noon above session MA support as a sign that the 24Hr low is in; however, the last several 24Hr highs have been made mere hours after the 24Hr low, offering no higher sess

ion low opportunity for long trades. We are overdue for a MD low. When that MD low is in, price will finally be able to get above the white 24Hr MA. There are many layers of resistance above that in the form of the monthly and weekly pivots and the MM, MW, and MD MAs. While price has shown a rare disregard for these levels lately, its interaction with these levels is still a crucial piece of the unfolding puzzle.  

  

Wednesday, 3/25/2015

The daily chart shows price yesterday making a lower high and lower low, closing below the daily pivot and the MD MA. Price today has opened below the daily pivot and is currently testing the weekly pivot. If we are still searching for the muti-week high, the weekly pivot should provide support and price should move up by week's end. If the overdue MWH was seen on Monday, however, any bounce off the weekly pivot should be short-lived and price should probe lower to the green MW MA, the MM MA, or the monthly pivot in search of support for the MW low due at month's end. We are currently in a Monday high, Wednesday low situation for the week; this is unlikely to stand, so it is more likely that price will either rally to put in a Thursday or Friday high, or continue lower to Thursday or Friday lows. The blue MD MA overhead is the key to the puzzle; if we are on the upside of the MW cycle, price will close back above this MA and retest the highs, but if we are on the downside of the MW cycle, the MD MA will cap any rally attempt until the MW low is in.

Yesterday's discussion mentioned the possibility that the 7:00am EST candle was an early 24Hr high, and, if so, that price would spend the entire day on the backside of the 24Hr. and multi-day cycles. This proved to be the case as price pushed lower into the close. It has moved mostly sideways overnight and is currently little-changed from yesterday's close. We are overdue for the 24Hr. low; it is possible that it occurred overnight at the 1:00am bar, and that a subsequent 24Hr high was made at the 6:00am bar just below the declining 24Hr MA. If so, this is a bearish left-translation of the high and also indicates that we are still searching for the multi-day low which was projected for yesterday morning. If the 24Hr low was made at the 8:00am candle or has yet to be found, then that 24Hr low should also be the MD low and price will then break above the declining 24Hr MA as it searches for the 24Hr high.  

Tuesday, 3/24/15

Yesterday opened above the daily pivot, pushed higher to take out Friday's high by one tick, then sold off, closing below Friday's close and a tick below the daily pivot. So far today price has opened below the daily pivot and has made a lower high and higher low versus yesterday. We continue to be overdue for a muti-week high, and resistance from the late February/early March multi-month high has thus far held.

Price is near the upsloping blue MD MA. If we are still searching for the MWH, then this MA or the weekly pivot will support price until that high is found. Should price break below these support areas, the MWH is in and price will look for support at the green MW MA, MM MA, or monthly pivot. The MW low is projected for the last day of the month, so there is still time left for price to see one more multi-day correction then give a last push to new highs before the MWH is found.

The hourly chart shows price making a 24Hr low on the daily pivot at 7:00am yesterday, then making a 24Hr high at 11:00am, one tick higher than the prior 24Hr high. This was essentially a double-top of 24Hr highs, which usually marks a multi-day high. The fact that price then spent the next 11hrs below the daily pivot and 24Hr MA also points to a MDH.

With price having spent much of the prior three bars above the 24Hr MA and daily pivot, it is possible that a 24Hr low was made at the 5:00am candle, two bars before projection. A higher session low due around the 11:00 bar is needed to confirm this. This potential low was made right in the window for the projection for the multi-day low. If we have indeed seen the MD low already, it is bullish that the MD MA was not threatened on the pullback. Price finding support on or above the MD MA for the MDL indicates we are still on the upside of the MW cycle. Should price not make a higher session low, it could mean that the 24Hr low (and thus MD low) is not yet in and price will make a more forceful test of the MD MA. A 24Hr high is projected for the 11:00am candle, and it is possible that it was made already made several hours ago just above the daily pivot and 24Hr MA; if that is the case, price will spend the entire day on the backside of the 24Hr cycle and MD cycle and the blue MD MA or weekly pivot will surely be tested.

Monday 3/23/15

The monthly chart, with 7 trading days left to complete the candle, has thus far acted in a bullish manner; it tested and found support at the MM MA and monthly pivot and is now challenging last month's highs. Until new highs are made, we must be open to the possibility that last month's candle was the multi-year high, but little evidence on the monthly chart exists to dampen the bullish argument; it is on the weekly chart that some concerns appear.

Last week's candle made a higher low and higher high, finding support on the MM MA and challenging the February highs. Early in this week's candle we can see that price has opened above the weekly pivot and has turned the MW MA upward, behavior associated with being on the upside of the multi-month cycle. This is a very bullish scenario, though it is important to note that there is plenty of time left in the week for price to turn down, bending the MW MA back down with it. A lingering concern is the shortened cycles that are appearing on the weekly chart. If two weeks ago did indeed see price put in a MM low (marked with a "?"), then it appeared only 5 weekly bars after the prior MM low. This is an abnormally short duration for a MM cycle and brings into question the status of the multi-year cycle, as abnormal behavior in a cycle is usually caused by the turning of a larger timeframe cycle. A move to new highs this week will erase any fears about being on the downside of the MY cycle, but that is the only evidence that will do so.

The daily chart shows last week being a Monday low/Friday high (ML/FH) situation, a bullish pattern that was discussed last week. Price today has opened above the daily pivot but thus far has not managed to eclipse Friday's high. Price is still searching for the overdue MW high, and the bulls would like to see that high be an all-time high. When the high is in, price will no longer find support on the blue MD MA and will flatten or bend the MA downward as price seeks out the MW low projected for the month's end.

The hourly chart shows the 24Hr high being made late afternoon on Friday. Less clear is the behavior since then; it is possible that a 24hr low was made a few hours later, as price did break below session cycle MA support and the MA subsequently dipped downward. Price then spent the next six candles riding on top of session cycle MA support, turning that MA upward in the process before then breaking below it again and turning it back down. Price seems to have found support on the daily pivot and is currently sitting just above the session cycle MA. We are overdue for a MD high, and it is quite possible that it was found Friday afternoon. If so, the white 24Hr MA should provide resistance for any upward move and price should break daily pivot support as it probes lower for its MD low projected for 6:00am tomorrow. If price instead rallies through the 24Hr MA then the overdue MD high has yet to be found. With the ambiguous price action and current location between the daily pivot and the 24Hr MA, I am reluctant to give a bias to today's trading. Given the ML/FH scenario that so often occurs in uptrends, however, it would make perfect sense for price to probe sharply lower today, find the MD low today or tomorrow, then ride the upside of the MD, MW, and MM cycles to highs the rest of this week.  

Friday 3/20/15

The daily chart shows price yesterday making a lower high and higher low, an inside day, closing just below the daily pivot. Price thus far today has opened below the daily pivot but is currently trading above it, challenging yesterday's highs. We are currently in a Monday low/Wednesday high situation (ML/WH), which often marks multi-week highs. With the next MW low due 3/31, it would be normal to see a center- or right-translated MW high if we are on the upside of the MM cycle; thus, the overdue MW high is a bullish sign. It is important (and expected) that price makes new highs for the week today to eliminate concerns of the ML/WH ( and thus possible MW high) situation.

The hourly chart shows price making a 24Hr low at noon yesterday, two bars before projection. Price then spent the next 17 hrs finding resistance under Thursday's daily pivot then Friday's daily pivot before finally breaking above it. Price is overdue for a 24Hr high, and a 24Hr low is due at noon. The extended action below the daily pivots argues for a possible multi-day high being made before Thursday's open, with a MD low being made yesterday. This would also explain the overdue 24Hr high, as price usually right-translates 24Hr highs coming out of a MD low. It is possible that the high will be found at the time of the expected 24Hr low (an inversion), but it would not surprise me to see price continue higher until the close. A negative possibility is that price makes a double top with recent high, indicating at least a MD high in the making and possible the overdue MW high. Currently the ball is in the bull's court, however, so I expect new highs for the week to be made today. This would mean any pullback to the gold session MA (one should occur near the open) would be a buying opportunity. Failure of the session MA to provide support on the pullback would indicate the overdue 24Hr high is in.

Thursday 3/19/15

The Fed verbiage which was expected to be the most pivotal event of the week for the markets did not disappoint; the market went from probing the MD MA beneath the monthly pivot and MM MA prior to the release to surging above the MW MA and downsloping trendline. Price being above monthly resistance and the MW MA is behavior associated with being on the upside of the multi-week cycle. We are currently overdue for price to find a multi-week top; the fact that this top was not made underneath the declining MW MA has bullish implications for the multi-month cycle. These bullish implications should allow for price to extend further in time before finding the MW high, or at a minimum have price holding monthly support near 2060.50 or at the weekly pivot (currently 2049.33 ) for its next MW low, due March 31st. Failure to either 1) take out the February highs or 2) find support for the next MW low at the above mentioned areas would thrust the ball back into the bear's court.

The hourly chart shows price having made a 24Hr low 2 bars past projection on monthly pivot and MD MA support before finding its price high at the close (a possibility mentioned in yesterday's commentary). I am marking the lower price high overnight as the 24Hr high, however, as it fits better with a normal time projection and was also the highest close of the hourly bars. Price is currently testing the 24Hr MA for support to put in the 24Hr low which is due early afternoon. There is plenty of time left in the session cycle for price to probe lower to the daily pivot at 2081.42 for support for this low. A MD high is due overnight tonight, so price should find support at one of these levels for the low. As always, the session cycle MA will shepherd price into this low, and the eventual break of the session MA on a closing basis will be a solid indicator that the low is in. We will then see if the bulls can surpass yesterday's highs and extend the MW high further right in time.

Wednesday 3/18/15 - Patience, Patience

The daily chart shows price yesterday closing with a lower high but above its daily pivot after finding support on the monthly pivot and MM MA. Price thus far today opened above the daily pivot but is currently trading below it, once again testing MM MA support. If this support can hold and price can break through the down-sloping MW MA (which is now aligning with the green dashed downtrend line), it will indicate that we are on the upside of the MW and MM cycles. This seems odd given the lack of support the MM MA and monthly pivot provided last week, but if we saw a half-span shift of the MM high then there is no reason we could not have also just experienced a half-span shift of the MM low. That discussion will likely wait until Sunday's post, however. If price instead breaks MM support, then I would expect it to test the uptrend line for support in the 2042 area.  Of course with the entire market focused on whether the Fed will remove the word "patient" from their verbiage on interest rates, it is possible the market will trade in a narrow range until their late afternoon announcement.

The hourly chart is one that I find very interesting today. Despite the frequent half-span shifts of the 24Hr highs, the white rectangles show price still adhering to a 24hr cycle: The 24Hr high on 3/16 was exactly 24 bars from the prior high; 24 bars from the 3/16 high was what may be another 24Hr high, though there was another 24Hr high between them; 24 bars from that intervening high appears to have taken us into this morning's 24Hr high. If this pattern holds true, it is possible we could see another high at today's close, despite having just made one a few hours ago. 

 A 24Hr low is due at noon, unless the high at yesterday's close was indeed a 24Hr high in which case there must have been a subsequent 24Hr low; if this is the case, the 24Hr low will extend until the overnight session.  Unless the low extends past the close my initial bias is to assume there was no intervening 24Hr low. Of course, higher timeframe support such as the monthly pivot at 2057.25 could provide support for an early 24Hr low. With the Fed's Janet Yellen speaking this afternoon, anything is possible and I do not expect the situation to clear up until late afternoon at the earliest. Meanwhile, price is trying to put in a higher hourly low, which could lead us into the session high due before 11:00AM.  Be careful today.

Tuesday, 3/17/15

The daily chart shows price yesterday making a higher low and higher high, closing above the daily, weekly and monthly pivots and just below the declining MW MA. So what is going on with these large moves alternating up and down? It is possible that Thursday's up day was what one would expect from price coming out of a MD and MW low. The MD high was projected for overnight prior to Friday's trading, and that may explain Friday's sharp retracement; the fact that the pullback didn't find support on either the weekly pivot or MD MA is difficult to explain under this scenario, however. A half-span MD low could have occurred Friday, which would then account for yesterday's large move above monthly pivot and MM MA resistance as price was again on the upside of the MD and MW cycles.

The alternative to the above is that price is being squeezed into a triangle. Triangles in cycle theory develop when cycles are at odds with each other, such as a rising MM cycle butting against a declining MY cycle (or vice versa). The larger timeframe cycle always wins out in these situations, so if a triangle is developing, its eventual breakout will be very telling. Trading during this period will be difficult for daytraders and swingtraders, however, as halfspan shifts predominate and make predictable behavior scarce. It is interesting that the weekly and monthly pivots are located on just either side of the apex of the triangle, so perhaps it is those two cycles at odds forming the triangle.

Regardless of which of the above is happening, we are currently in the window for the projected multi-week high. That price was able to close above the MM MA and monthly pivot was bullish, but a MW high underneath the declining MW MA would trump that for the bears. If we are on the upside of the MD, MW and MM cycles, that MW high projection could certainly right-translate giving price no excuse not to rise from here and take out the MW MA this week. Failure to do so has very bearish connotations.

When we speak of the daily chart possible being in a triangle, one should prepare for the hourly chart to be littered with confusing price action, and that is the case in the chart below. The two 24Hr highs marked with down arrows are almost 48 hours apart, which begs for placement of another 24Hr high somewhere between the two. Likewise, it has been nearly 48 hours since the last 24Hr low marked with an up arrow. It is possible that Friday's rally into the close that stalled at the daily pivot was a 24Hr high, followed by a half-span 24Hr low (both marked with "?"). If that is the case, we need to consider that a 24Hr low was made overnight followed hours later by a half-span 24Hr high this morning made against the underside of the MW MA. I will hold off on any official assignment of these possible highs/lows until price gives more clarity. Regardless, a session high is due just after the open, and price is currently testing the underside of the session MA. A lower session high would indicate that we are on the downside of the 24Hr cycle, and price should test the daily pivot at a minimum in search of the 24Hr low. A break above the prior session high would mean that we are on the upside of the 24Hr cycle and lead to a retest of yesterday's highs.

Monday 3/16/15 The bear case strengthens.

The monthly candle (not shown) is only half complete, and thus far it has made a lower high and is currently below the monthly pivot but above the MM MA; it tells neither a bullish nor bearish story at this point. The weekly chart shows price last week having closed below the weekly pivot and the downsloping green MW MA, indicating that price is on the downside of the MM cycle. Price also closed under the monthly pivot and slightly below the MM MA. This is behavior typically indicative of price being on the downside of the multi-year cycle, a bearish scenario. It is worth looking at the price action highlighted in the yellow circle on the weekly chart; price in December of last year also closed well below the weekly pivot and bent the MW MA downward, only to erase nearly all of those gains the following week. A difference that has to be noted, however, is that price held MM MA and monthly pivot support during that decline. So where does that leave us? Price appears to have made a lower multi-month high halfway earlier than the normal time span (a half-span shift, commonly occurring during turns of a larger cycle). Thus far, price is still above the uptrend line drawn from the last two MM lows. A break of this line would add even more strength to the bear case. I would need to see price close above the monthly pivot and turn the MW MA up before easing concerns of a larger drop on the horizon.

The daily chart shows price closing the prior candle (Friday) below the monthly and weekly pivots and the MM and MW MAs. It is quite possible that the double bottom that occured Wednesday and Thursday marked the MW low. The current candle is currently trading above the daily and weekly pivot and is trying to turn the blue MD MA upward. It's ability to do so would confirm the MW low was seen last week. A MW high is due this Wednesday. The timing and location of that high will tell us the status of the MM cycle. If that cycle is rolling over as the weekly chart indicates, a lower MW high should be found (likely under the green MW MA) and price will take out last week's lows.

The hourly chart shows price has been whipsawing through the horizontal line representing the monthly pivot. A 24Hr. low was made at noon on Friday and price has since worked its way back up through the MD MA and weekly pivot. Price is overdue for a 24Hr high, and a 24Hr low is due at noon. A MD low is due tomorrow, but the ability of price to cut through higher timeframe resistance indicates that the low might have been seen on Friday. The gold session MA is supporting price into the 24Hr high, and when that support breaks the high will be in. The ability of price to then find support on the MD MA or weekly pivot for the next 24Hr low would tell us that we are on the upside of the MW cycle.

Friday, 3/13/15 An important day for bulls and bears

Yesterday price did what was the bulls needed it to do, as it rallied strongly to close just above the MM MA and right at monthly pivot amd MD MA resistance. Price thus far today has opened above the daily pivot and made a higher high than yesterday but seems to have found continued resistance at the monthly pivot. So far the week has seen a Monday high and a Wednesday low. Wednesday lows (or highs) often mark multi-week lows (or highs)- in fact the prior MW high was made on Wednesday, February 25th. One of the more bullish things price could do today would be to close above the weekly pivot at 2076.42 (apologies for some incorrect pivot # in this week's earlier posts, the probelm is fixed now). This would help to ease concerns that the MM cycle is rolling over early (which would imply that the MY cycle has turned down). One of the more bearish things price could do today would be to take out yesterday's low and indicate that we are still on the downside of the MW (and possibly MM and MY) cycle. A multi-week high is actually due today, but this is because the cycles have been running fairly short lately; a return to a normal cycle length would see the MW high due the middle of next week.

The hourly chart shows price yesterday making a 24Hr low on daily pivot and 24Hr MA support and rallying strongly before pausing at the MD MA at the NY close. A 24Hr high was formed with a double-top of session highs and price broke down below the session MA in search of the  slightly overdue 24Hr low. It is possible that this low has been found on MD MA support last hour; it is also possible that price is merely rising off of this MA to put in a lower session cycle high (due the 10:00am EST bar). Resistance for this high should be found at the white 24Hr MA or gold session cycle MA. If the 24Hr low was last hour, price may ignore this resistance; if not, price should retest and likely break this morning's low and possibly find support for it on the monthly pivot or daily pivot.

This is one of the more important days in determining where price is in the scheme of the larger cycles, and unfortunately I have appointments that will have me heading out shortly after the open.   

When is a 20+ point move in the S&P a reasonable expectation?

From this morning's premarket comments with S&P e-mini trading below 2045:  

 Price so far is finding support on the 24Hr MA and daily pivot. I expect this support to hold and price to take out yesterday's high and test resistance in the area of the monthly pivot (2064.75) or MD MA (currently 2067.50 and falling).

Was a 20+ point day in the S&P a reasonable expectation?  It was today, as I pointed out in this mornings post.  Coming out of a multi-day low, price will test the 24Hr MA and/or daily pivot for support before testing the MD MA for resistance. What's next? If the overnight trading also marked a multi-week low, then the weekly pivot (currently the 2084 area) will be tested within a few days.  If the multi-week low is still in front of us, then price should retest the overnight lows in the same timeframe.  More on that in tomorrow's commentary.

Thursday 3/12/15

The daily candle shows price having made a lower high and lower low yesterday as price continues on the backside of the multi-week and multi-day cycles. We are currently in a Monday High, Thursday Low situation which is fairly common in a downtrend. For reasons discussed in Monday's post pertaining to the Monthly cycle, I still feel it is very important that price rebound in the two remaining trading days and close above the level of the multi-month MA on the weekly chart (~ 2052.00 level) if not the monthly pivot at 2064.75. Thus far, price shows no signs of doing this, opening below the daily pivot and making a lower low than yesterday.

The hourly chart shows price having made a 24Hr low exactly 24 bars after it's prior 24Hr low then breaking the blue downtrend line drawn from the prior multi-day high through subsequent 24Hr highs. This is the first sign that yesterday's low was possibly the overdue MD low (and likely the MW low as well). The 24Hr high is past due, but coming out of a MD and MW low it is normal that this high should extend in time. Price so far is finding support on the 24Hr MA and daily pivot. I expect this support to hold and price to take out yesterday's high and test resistance in the area of the monthly pivot (2064.75) or MD MA (currently 2067.50 and falling).

A break of the gold session MA on an hourly close should signify that the 24Hr high has been made.

Wednesday 3/11/15

The daily chart shows price yesterday making a lower high and lower low, closing below the monthly pivot and the MM MA. It should be noted that price is still above the value of the MM MA based on the monthly chart shown in Monday's post; while it is below the MM MA on the weekly chart, it has three trading days left to rectify that. A MW low is due on this daily bar, but this is a time projection only and can easily be early or late. When the MW low is in, price will eventually exceed the level of the declining blue MD MA, turning that average back up. We will then see how much energy the bulls have left.

The hourly chart shows price making a 24Hr Low just after the NY close. The 24Hr high is overdue. Price has managed to squeak above the 24H MA, and has fallen back to test it for support near the time window for a session low. It is possible that the brief foray above the 24Hr MA was the 24Hr high; if so, price will make a lower session high early afternoon then retest the overnight lows. If the 24Hr MA provides support, price should make a higher session high and likely probe daily pivot resistance near 2054.50

Tuesday 3/10/15

Price yesterday found support just above the monthly pivot and closed just under the weekly pivot. Price today opened above the daily pivot but has taken out yesterday's low and tested multi-month MA support. Price is overdue for a multi-day low, and the MW low projects for overnight trading after the close. The combination of the monthly pivot and MM MA should support price for the MD and MW lows, assuming the mult-year cycle is still rising.

The hourly chart shows price making a 24Hr high yesterday against the daily pivot, action indicative of being on the downside of the MD cycle. We are currently overdue for the 24Hr low and the MM MA (not shown) near 2059 should put in support for this low. We have already seen a higher low and a higher high on the current hourly bar, but this could just be a move toward a session high which is due this hourly bar. If the 24Hr. low is in, price will break the brown session MA and head toward the white 24Hr MA or the daily pivot at 2075.50. A 24Hr high is due mid-afternoon, but if the MD (and possibly MW) cycle is turning up, that high should extend in time and give price an opportunity to exceed the first targets so it can then find support for the next 24Hr low on the daily pivot or 24Hr MA.

It's Alive!!!

After a long hiatus and much reluctance, I have decided to revive the blog for my own educational purposes.  So without further ado, lets get to the charts.

Six trading days into the monthly bar price has done nothing overtly bearish; price remains above the monthly pivot and the multi-month MA. A multi-year cycle high is projected for April, and while this could extend several months later, it is also fully plausible that it could have already been seen in the February high. This scenario will be touched on further in the weekly chart commentary.

The weekly chart shows price last week closing below the weekly pivot and opening this week under the new weekly pivot and the green multi-week MA. Note that the MA is now rolling over, a bearish indication if it stands at week's end; it is important to remember that price has all week to close higher and bend the moving average upward. With a multi-month high projection over a month away, it is very important for the bulls that price find support on the monthly pivot and resume its march higher. Failure to find support on the monthly pivot would indicate the multi-month high was seen two bars ago, roughly a half-span shift of the projection and an indication that the larger multi-year cycle has seen its high and is exerting downward pressure on the multi-month cycle.

The daily chart shows a large trend lower bar on Friday and price today opening below the daily pivot, the weekly pivot, and the MD and MW MAs. The MM MA and monthly pivot are close below and, as mentioned above, it is critical to the bull case that price find support here. If 2/17 (marked with a "?") was a MW high followed a couple of days later by a MW low, then the next MW low is projected for Wednesday; higher timeframe support of the monthly pivot and MM MA could easily put in this MW low earlier, however. I would have preferred to see today trade down to find that support and put in a Monday low typical of the Monday low/Friday high scenario seen during uptrends. It is possible that the near touch (less than a point off) of the monthly pivot was close enough to put in the bottom, but only time and price will tell for sure. A multi-day low is due late after-hours Tuesday. I am skipping a 60 minute chart today, but currently price is searching for a 24Hr high and the daily pivot at 2080.42 or the weekly pivot at 2083.92 are logical places to find resistance for that high. Where price finds its next 24Hr low (due just after the NY close) will provide information as to whether the multi-day low lays behind or ahead of us.