Friday 7/31/2015

The daily chart shows price yesterday making a higher low and equal high versus the prior candle. Price today has opened above the daily pivot and has made a higher high. The blue MW MA has just started to turn upward; should it maintain that by day's end it will confirm Monday's low as a MW low. With a MW high not projected until 8/12 (around the same time as the projected MM high), price should make new all-time highs during this up-cycle.

The hourly chart shows price yesterday morning dropping below daily pivot and 24Hr MA support but quickly finding soft support on the weekly pivot. While this was the first logical place to find support for a multi-day low, I stupidly neglected to mention it as I expected a slightly sharper pullback to the MD MA. While we did not appear to have a lower 24Hr high or lower 24Hr low which is almost always associated with the downside of a MD cycle, I do believe that yesterday was a MD low.

We are overdue for the 24Hr high, and the 24Hr low is projected for shortly after the close. It is possible that the 24Hr high was seen several bars ago; a lower Session high (or double-top of Session highs) would confirm this. If the 24Hr high was already seen, it is also possible that the 24Hr low was just seen on daily pivot support. Should price take out this morning's high, I would expect price to have a trend day up. Failure to take out the morning's high would likely mean that the 24Hr high has not been seen and price should retest the weekly pivot (or lower if yesterday was not the MD low).

Thursday 7/30/2015

The daily chart shows price yesterday making a higher low, higher high and higher close versus the prior day, with price closing above the weekly pivot and MW MA. Price today has thus made a lower high and is currently trading below its daily pivot. 

Despite yesterday's bullish candle, nothing has really changed from yesterday's commentary; Monday's low was unquestionably a multi-day low, but it is still unknown whether it was also a multi-week low. This will not be known with certainty until price makes a higher MD low or the blue MD MA turns upward. My expectation is that price is on the upside of the multi-month and multi-week cycles and will reach new all-time highs by mid-August.

The hourly chart shows price yesterday rising throughout the day until it found its 24Hr high late afternoon under MW MA resistance. Price then traded sideways overnight atop daily pivot support and beneath MW MA resistance. It is unclear whether an overdue 24Hr low and early 24Hr high were seen in pre-market trading, but price is currently breaking below daily pivot/24Hr MA support.

We are overdue for a MD high to be seen, and this near double-top at the MW MA will likely mark that MD high. If so, I would expect price to also drop below the weekly pivot and test the blue MD MA before finding its MD low. As mentioned yesterday, where price finds support for its MD low will clear up the question of whether Monday was a MW low or merely a MD low. Should price find support at the MD MA or monthly pivot or even double-bottom with Monday's low, it would indicate that Monday was a MW low. A drop below Monday's low would obviously indicate that Monday was only a MD low and that this week's rally was merely the upside of the multi-day cycle.

Wednesday 7/29/2015

The daily chart shows price yesterday making a higher low and higher high and closing in the area of the MM MA and MW MA. Price today has opened above the daily pivot and is currently testing the weekly pivot from below. Monday was definitely a multi-day low, but the bigger question is whether it was also a multi-week low. If it was, price should now be on the upside of the MW and MM cycles until the 2nd week of August and my expectation is that price will attain new all-time highs by then.

The hourly chart shows price yesterday making its 24Hr low on 24Hr MA/daily pivot support, confirming Monday's low as a multi-day low. Price then rallied up to the MD MA and weekly pivot where it is currently finding resistance. We are overdue to see a 24Hr high, and the weekly pivot is a logical place for this high to be made.

The 24Hr low is due mid-afternoon, and where it is made will provide valuable information. If the 24Hr MA or daily pivot provide support for the 24Hr low then price is still on the upside of the MD cycle. We are overdue for a MD high to be seen though, and the weekly pivot is a logical place for that high to be found as well; should price pull back to the monthly pivot or lower, it would indicate that price is on the downside of the MD cycle.  A higher MD low, preferably on monthly pivot support, would confirm Monday's low as a multi-week low.  Should price take out Monday's low during the next multi-day cycle, it would obviously indicate that the MW low has not been seen.

Tuesday 7/28/2015

The daily chart shows price yesterday making a lower high, lower low and lower close, closing below the monthly pivot. Price today has opened below the daily pivot but thus far has made a higher low and is currently testing the monthly pivot from below. Today is projection for the multi-week low, but it is possible that yesterday was that low (or that the low will extend further in time). Price has much work ahead of it before we can declare a MW low has been seen, but given my expectation for price to make new all-time highs before the next projected multi-month high in mid-August, it is likely that the low would fall earlier rather than later than projected.

The hourly chart shows price selling off throughout Monday's trading until it found its 24Hr low near the NY close as projected. As a side note, the 24Hr low was a textbook double-bottom of Session lows, just as a double-bottom of 24Hr lows marks a multi-day low, and a double-bottom of multi-day lows marks a multi-week low. Though I do not mention anything below the Session cycle (5-7 hour cycle) in this blog, the fractal nature of this market framework extends down to the minute chart where a double-bottom of 5-minute lows marks a 15-minute low.

In after-hours trading, price was able to move above the gold Session MA which then provided support for price to move above daily pivot and 24Hr MA resistance to test the monthly pivot from below. The ability of price to move above the daily pivot and 24Hr MA indicates that yesterday was likely the overdue multi-day low. Price has likely just seen its 24Hr high made against monthly pivot resistance, and the next 24Hr low is again projected for near the close; if we are on the upside of the MD cycle, however, it is likely that the daily pivot and/or 24Hr MA will provide support to put this low in early. My expectation would be for price to find support at the 2068 area early today and then take out this morning's highs to test the blue MD MA or weekly pivot.

Monday 7/27/2015

The monthly chart shows price with one week's trading remaining in the July candle having made a double top with the May all-time high and having made a higher high but lower low versus June. Price is currently trading below the monthly pivot and the MM MA, behavior indicative of price being on the downside of the multi-year cycle should price fail to regain these levels by the month's close.

The weekly chart shows price last week having made a higher high and higher low versus the prior week, but price closed below its weekly pivot and the MM MA. Early in this week's candle price has opened below its weekly pivot and is trading below the monthly pivot.

The strength of the move up out of the early July low and the sharp upturn of the MW MA are signals that price was on the upside of the multi-month cycle. Price has yet to make a higher multi-week low to confirm this, however, and that may be what price is in the process of doing now. The MM high is not projected until the week of 8/14. Failure to make new all-time highs near this projection would likely indicate that the MM high was put in early and be a signal that price is on the downside of the MY cycle.   

The daily chart shows price last week equaling its all-time high on Monday and then making a lower high, lower low, and lower close each day after that. Price thus far today has opened below its daily pivot and made a lower high and lower low and is trading below monthly pivot support. This is the behavior of price on the downside of the multi-week cycle. A MW low is projected for tomorrow, though the projection is merely an average length of the prior five cycle lengths. Price could easily find soft support on the monthly pivot and put in its MW low today, or it could retrace all or more of the recent move up. When the MW low is made, however, we will know because trade up through the blue MD MA and turn that moving average upward.

It was mentioned in the weekly chart commentary that price had not made a higher MW low to confirm that the early July MW low was also a MM low. This is very likely what price is in the process of doing now. It was mentioned last week that Monday's high was the perfect place to put in the overdue MW high and start a sharp pullback into a MW low that would get the media talking about the triple top in the market. My expectation remains for price to find its MW low near tomorrow's projected date and for price to make new all-time highs by the next MW high. As mentioned above, failure to do so would be a very strong warning that price is on the downside of the multi-year cycle.

The hourly chart shows on Friday making its 24Hr high at daily pivot/24Hr MA resistance and falling sharply throughout the day before finding its 24Hr low on monthly pivot support. A 24Hr high was made in Sunday night trading well below the daily pivot and 24Hr MA, indicating that price remains on the downside of the multi-day cycle. A 24Hr low is projected for near the close today, indicating that rallies to the gold session MA are higher percentage shorting opportunities.

Price is well overdue to put in a MD low, but both the upside and downside of the recent MW cycles have been strong enough to mute the MD cycle. This muting of the MD cycle during the recent MW upturn was attributed to price also being on the upside of the MM cycle; one must be open to the possibility that the muting of the MD cycle on this decline could also be due to price being on the downside of the MW and MM cycles. With a MW low projected for tomorrow, it becomes increasingly likely that the next MD low will also be the MW low. The bigger question is whether the next 24Hr low will be the MD low, or if the MD low will come on Tuesday (the projected MW low) or Wednesday (the classic Wednesday low/high as a MW low/high).  

Friday 7/24/2015

The daily chart shows price yesterday making a higher high but lower low and lower close versus Wednesday. Price today has opened below the daily pivot and is testing the weekly pivot which provided soft support yesterday. 

The blue MD MA is now pointing downward, confirming Monday as a multi-week high. The MW low is projected for Tuesday, but the weekly pivot or the MM MA or MW MA near 2088.50 could provide support for this low to be seen earlier. When the low is in, we will see price rally above the MD MA and turn that average upward, a refrain written frequently here because it happens so frequently. With the multi-month cycle not projected to top until mid-August, my expectation after finding its MW low is for price to rally to new all-time highs; failure to do so would likely indicate that price is on the downside of the multi-year cycle.

The hourly chart shows price yesterday making its 24Hr high in pre-market trading then trading down all day before finding its low at the close on weekly pivot and MW MA support. This was the minimum decline and first support level I had expected, and we will see whether this support was strong enough to put in a multi-day low, as well as perhaps a multi-week low. Price several bars ago appeared to find resistance at the daily pivot in the timeframe for the expected 24Hr high. If this was the 24Hr high, it indicates that price is on the downside of the MD MA; with the 24Hr low not expected until after the close, price will have every opportunity to take out yesterday's low. If price again finds support at the weekly pivot/MW MA for an early 24Hr low, I would then expect price to rally above the pre-market highs and retest the MD MA.

Thursday 7/23/2015

The daily chart shows price yesterday making a lower high, lower low and lower close versus Tuesday. Price today has opened above the daily pivot and thus far has made a higher low and higher high than yesterday. The blue MD MA is starting to flatten out, and unless price rallies above it today, the turn of the MD MA will confirm that we are on downside of the multi-week cycle. The MW low is projected for next Tuesday, and I would expect price to test the weekly pivot or the MW MA/MM MA confluence area near 2087 before the low is found.

The hourly chart shows price yesterday making a 24Hr low just after the NY open and then riding gold Session cycle MA support throughout the remainder of the day until finding its 24Hr high overnight just under the MD MA. Price is in the timeframe to see its 24Hr low and is currently testing the white 24Hr MA and daily pivot. Should price find support here for the 24Hr low, it would confirm yesterday's low as a multi-day low. A MD high is projected for Monday, but the MD MA could provide resistance to see the MD high put in earlier if price is on the downside of the MW cycle.

Wednesday 7/22/2015

Price yesterday made a lower high and lower low and closed below the daily pivot. Price today has opened below the daily pivot and thus far made a lower high and lower low. Price is overdue for the multi-week high, and it is likely that Monday was that high as price is below MD MA support. The MW low is projected for next Tuesday, though higher timeframe support such as the weekly pivot or the MW MA or MM MA could provide support to see this low put in earlier. With the multi-month high not due until mid-August, the expectation is that price will trade down to find its MW low by this time next week and then make new all-time highs during the next leg up in the MW cycle. Failure to achieve this would indicate that the multi-year cycle has topped and is rolling over.

The hourly chart shows price making a 24Hr high on Monday that was also the multi-day high. Following a lower 24Hr high yesterday, price finally broke daily pivot/24Hr MA support and fell throughout the day- a trend-day down as was explained in yesterday's pre-market blog.

The strength of the move up obscured the MD cycle and distorted the 24Hr cycle; it appears the same is happening on this move down as we are well overdue to see a 24Hr low. This distortion, combined with the failure of price to find support on the MD MA, makes it more likely that price is on the downside of the multi-week cycle as well as the multi-day cycle. Support for the MD low could appear anywhere, on or above the higher-timeframe support levels for the MW low mentioned above. Resistance for any move up should come at the MD MA as it now provides resistance until the MW low is seen.

Tuesday 7/21/2015

Monday was the seventh straight day with a higher low, higher high and higher close.  Yesterday's intraday high exactly matched that of the May multi-month high (and all-time high).  Price is overdue for a multi-week high to be seen; should it have been yesterday and price does a normal MW correction down to the weekly pivot or the MM or MW MA, much will be made of the triple top formed by the last three MW highs.  A double top of cycle highs usually implies that a high of the next higher cycle has also been seen, as was the case with the May/June MW double top also marking the MM top.  I have experienced too few triple tops on any timeframe, however, to have a similar confidence level in proclaiming it to mean a MM or even MY cycle high has been seen. It is also important to remember that the MM high is not projected until mid-August, so there will be plenty of time for price to find its MW low (projected for 7/28) and still make new all-time highs before the next MM high is due.

The hourly chart continues to show price on the upside of the MD cycle, finding support for its 24Hr lows on the white 24Hr MA or daily pivot. We are long overdue to see a MD low put in, as the upward strength of the higher timeframe cycles has overwhelmed the MD cycle and distorted the 24Hr cycle. I mentioned in Friday's blog that my experience has been that moves like this usually end with either an inversion (where the 24Hr high extends in time so far that it appears at the projected time of the next 24Hr low) or in a half-span shift where the 24Hr high will appear roughly 12 hourly bars from the prior 24Hr high. The distortion of the 24Hr cycle makes my confidence level in my official designations lower than normal, but it appears that perhaps we have seen both anomalies; yesterday's 24Hr high came 29 bars after the prior 24Hr low (an inversion), and we have possibly seen a half-span shift overnight with a possible 24Hr high (marked with "?") appearing 12 bars after the prior one.

Price is currently trading below the daily pivot and 24Hr MA, a strong indication that the multi-day cycle has finally been seen and price is searching out its overdue MD low. The blue MD MA would be a logical place for price to find this low under normal circumstances. As mentioned yesterday, however, this MD high will likely also mark a MW high, so the correction could be deeper and take price to the weekly pivot or perhaps the lower targets of the MW or MM MAs mentioned above. The 24Hr low is not projected until after the close, so this could very well be a trend-down day on the downside of the 24Hr, multi-day, and possibly multi-week cycles.

Monday 7/20/2015

The monthly chart shows price thus far in July having made a lower low and higher high versus the June candle. Having opened the month below its monthly pivot and the MM MA, price is now trading above each. Until price eclipses the May high, there is still the possibility that May was the multi-year high; we have not yet seen a lower multi-month high which would confirm this, however.

The weekly chart shows price last week making a higher low and higher high versus the prior week, closing above all higher-timeframe MAs and pivots. Price early in this week's candle has opened above the new weekly pivot and has eclipsed last week's high. This action has turned the MW MA upward; should this condition prevail at the close of this week's bar, it would confirm that two week's ago was a multi-month low. The next MM high is projected for mid-August, giving price plenty of time to make new all-time highs. Failure to do so in this MM cycle would likely signal that May was indeed the multi-year high.

The daily chart shows price last week making a higher low and higher high and close each day last week, action so strongly bullish that it hinted by midweek that price was on the upside of the MW and MM cycles. Price today has taken out the June MW high and is just a hair away from taking out the May all-time high. We are overdue for a MW high, and the MW low is projected for 7/28.

The hourly chart continues to show price finding support for its 24Hr lows on the white 24Hr MA or daily pivot. This is behavior of price on the upside of the multi-day cycle. We are well overdue for the MD low to be seen, much less a MD high, as the strength of the MW and likely MM cycles has run roughshod over the 24Hr and MD cycles. We are overdue for a 24Hr high, and the 24Hr low is projected for 11:00am today. At some point the MD cycle will reassert itself and price will break daily pivot/24Hr MA support and test the MD MA below. Given that we are overdue for a MW high, it is very likely that when price finally puts in its multi-day high it will also be a multi-week high, and the decline is likely to test the weekly pivot near 2097.

Friday 7/17/2015

The daily chart shows price yesterday opening above the daily pivot and making a higher low and higher high and higher close. It was the fifth straight day of higher lows and higher highs, and hints that price is also on the upside of the multi-month cycle as well as the obvious multi-week cycle. Until a higher MW low is seen (projected for 7/28) or until the green MW MA turns upward, however, the MM cycle low cannot be confirmed.

The hourly chart shows price continuing to find support for its 24Hr lows on the white 24Hr MA or daily pivot before moving upward to make higher 24Hr highs. We are long overdue for the multi-day high to be put in, and in fact are well overdue to see a multi-day low as well; as mentioned yesterday, this also points to price being on the upside of the multi-month cycle as the MD cycle is only muted like this when it is being overwhelmed by two higher timeframe cycles.

Unfortunately, while this has made analyzing the hourly chart easy, it has made projections pointless since both the 24Hr cycle and MD cycle are being extended in time by the powerful larger timeframe trend. Past experience has shown me that forceful moves like this normally end with either a half-span shift of the 24Hr high, or an inversion, where the 24Hr high extends so far that it actually occurs at the time of the projected 24Hr low. The 24Hr high is projected for just after the close; since we are past the time window for a half-span high to be made, I have no reason to think that the 24Hr high will not come then or even later than projected. With the MW high and MD high both overdue, the odds increase that each "next" 24Hr high will be the MD high and possibly the MW high, and I would expect the next move below the lower of the daily pivot or 24Hr MA will be the start of a fairly sharp correction.

Thursday 7/16/2015

The daily chart shows price for the fourth straight day making a higher low and higher high. Thus far today price has opened above the daily pivot and made a higher low and high. Price continues on the upside of the multi-week cycle, and as it challenges all-time highs it is looking increasingly likely that it is also on the upside of the monthly cycle. If so, we will eventually see a higher multi-week low (the MW high is already overdue) and the green MW MA will also turn upwards. The multi-month high is projected for mid-August, giving price plenty of remaining time in the MM cycle to make new highs. Failure to do so would be a strong indication that the multi-year cycle has indeed seen its high and is rolling over.

The hourly chart shows price essentially trading sideways yesterday as price once again corrected in time rather than price. The 24Hr low was made an hour before the close just below the daily pivot but price quickly regained the pivot and traded higher overnight.

The 24Hr highs have lengthened recently, and the multi-day cycle is well overdue to see a MD high and low. The apparent muting of these cycles is another indication that we are likely on the upside of the multi-month cycle as well as the multi-week cycle. While the odds increase that the next 24Hr high will also be a multi-day high, there is little certainty how long the MD cycle will remain muted and it is increasingly difficult to project the 24Hr high itself.  

Wednesday 7/15/2015

The daily chart shows price yesterday opening well above the daily pivot and making a higher low, higher high and higher close. Price today has again opened above the daily pivot and has thus far made a higher low and higher high. With price above the last remaining area of higher timeframe pivot or MA resistance, price is squarely on the upside of the multi-week cycle. The May/June double top of MW highs is the only remaining resistance to price; if we are on the downside of either the multi-year or multi-month cycle, I would not expect price to be able to eclipse those highs; naturally, the ability to reach new all-time highs would indicate that we are on the upside of both those cycles.

The MW high was projected for yesterday. The mere fact that the high was not seen earlier than projected is a clue that price may also be on the upside of the MM cycle, though there is no true confirmation of this yet. On the downside of the MM cycle, though, one would have expected the MM MA to have provided resistance to put in the MW high. An upward turn of the green MW MA and a higher MW low will eventually confirm the upside of the MM cycle.

The hourly chart shows price yesterday making its 24Hr low on 24Hr MA support before the NY open. Price made its 24Hr high in overnight trading but has once again corrected sideways into the time window for its 24Hr low. Yesterday was the projection for the multi-day high, but as long as price continues to find support for its 24Hr low on 24Hr MA or daily pivot support, the MD cycle has not turned. When price breaks this support, I would expect a fairly sharp correction down to the blue MD MA or the monthly pivot (both currently in the 2074 area).  

Tuesday 7/14/2015

The daily chart shows price yesterday making a higher low and higher high, closing above the monthly pivot and MW and MM MAs. With the blue MD MA now pointing upward, I have designated last Monday's low as a multi-week low. The multi-week high is projected for today, but the status of the multi-month cycle has a big say in when the MW high will be made; if we are still on the downside of the MM cycle I would expect the MW high to come in near the projection, but if Monday was also a multi-month low then I would expect the MW high to extend in time well past the projected date.

The hourly chart shows price rising all day long yesterday, riding the support of the gold Session MA up to its 24Hr high just after the NY close. This is action indicative of price being on the upside of the 24Hr, MD and MW cycles.

As mentioned yesterday, today is projection for both the MD high and MW high. We are currently overdue for the 24Hr low, but price has shown little interest in declining and has instead just been correcting sideways. As long as price finds support for its 24Hr low on the 24Hr MA or daily pivot, we have not seen the MD high.  When the high has been seen, price will break the 24Hr MA, then the daily pivot, and will probe lower for the support that will put in the MD low which is projected for overnight tonight. The monthly pivot would be the first area to look for this support, while the confluence of the MW and MD MAs near 2066 would be the next lower area.  

Monday 7/13/2015

The monthly chart shows price thus far in July has opened below the monthly pivot and MM MA, but is currently trading above both. It is unclear at this stage whether the May high was a multi-year high, and even more unclear whether this month's low will prove to be a multi-year low. As absurd a notion as the latter may sound, the past two MY highs saw shallow retracements into MY lows just two bars later- the exact situation we have here. While I would prefer a pullback to the white MY MA or yearly pivot (at 1948) before looking for evidence of a MY low, price doesn't always give us a clean, clear picture. With more than half the month remaining, price is capable of doing anything to clear up or further confuse the message.

 

The weekly chart shows price last week forming a "hammer" candlestick under the MW MA and monthly pivot. Price early in this week's candle has made a higher low and higher high versus last week and is currently testing the MM MA. We are overdue for the multi-month low to be seen, and it is possible that last week was that low; if so, price should continue to trade above the green MW MA and turn that average upward. The next MM high is projected for mid-August.

Where the next MM high is made will hopefully help to answer the questions above regarding the status of the multi-year cycle.

The daily chart shows price last week making a statistically rare Monday low/Tuesday high. Price today has made a higher low and higher high versus Friday and is currently trading above the MW MA and monthly pivot. The blue MD MA is also pointing upward due to today's action. If this is maintained through today's close, it would confirm last Monday as a MW low. The MW high is projected for tomorrow; if we are still on the downside of the MM cycle, the MM MA could easily provide resistance to put the MW high in today, but if we are on the upside of the MM cycle it is likely the MW high will extend in time past the projection.

The hourly chart shows price on Friday making a 24Hr high right at monthly pivot resistance. Price gapped down in Sunday evening trading to make its 24Hr low just below MD MA support. Price quickly regained the MD MA and weekly pivot and surged above Friday's high to take out the monthly pivot. The soft support provided by the MD MA is indicative that price is indeed on the upside of the MW cycle.

A 24Hr high is projected for just after the close today; the MD high projection is for the same time period. It is possible that the MM MA (not shown on hourly chart) will provide resistance to put both highs in early. If price is instead able to extend these highs in time past projection, it would be a sign that perhaps price is also on the upside of the multi-month cycle as well as the multi-week cycle.  

Friday 7/10/2015

The daily chart shows price yesterday making a lower high and higher low and slightly higher close versus the prior day; yesterday was the second straight "inside day" for the S&P, which is hard to imagine given the magnitude of the moves each day. Price today opened below the daily pivot but has traded higher and taken out yesterday's high.

So far this week we have seen a Monday low and a Tuesday high, an unusual scenario that is statistically rare but given the size of the candles involved may just hold. If Monday was a multi-week low, and possibly a multi-month low, then a bullish Monday low/Friday high scenario could still occur. Thus far, however, there is little evidence that price is on the upside of the MW cycle as price has been unable to turn the MD MA upward.

The hourly chart shows price yesterday making a 24Hr high against weekly pivot resistance then dropping back below the 24Hr MA and daily pivot to make a slightly higher 24Hr low. The inability of price to find support (or resistance) at the daily pivot or 24Hr MA is making the designation of multi-day highs and lows difficult; I am going with the assumption that Wednesday's 24Hr low was also a MD low.

In overnight trading, price again rose above the 24Hr MA and daily pivot and is currently testing the MW MA. We are in the window for the projected 24Hr high, and the MW MA is certainly capable of providing the resistance to put this high in. It is possible, however, that the 24Hr high will extend in time on the upside of the MD and MW cycles, giving price time today to break above the MW MA and retest the monthly pivot and Monday's high. The MD high is projected for after the close Monday, and the MW high is projected for Tuesday. Should price indeed see its 24Hr high in the projected timeframe, I would expect price to finally find support for its 24Hr low on the 24Hr MA/MD MA confluence at 2058 or the daily pivot at 2049.  In either case, I expect price to retest the monthly pivot by early next week.

Thursday 7/9/2015

The daily chart shows price yesterday opening above the daily pivot, making a lower high and higher low and closing below the MD MA. "Inside" days are normally small candles, but this one managed to lose 34 points. Despite the carnage, the possibility remains that Monday was the overdue multi-week low. The MW high is projected for 7/14, but thus far price has been unable to make any headway. Price thus far today has put in another inside day versus yesterday, but it has regained the MD MA. If the MW low is behind us, price should be able to stay above the MD MA and turn that average upward.

The hourly chart shows price yesterday making an earlier-than-projected 24Hr high under daily pivot and 24Hr MA resistance before falling into a half-shift 24Hr low (just 11 bars after the prior 24Hr low) an hour before the NY close. This low was likely a multi-day low, as price has risen sharply overnight to take out 24Hr MA and daily pivot resistance and is currently testing MD MA and weekly pivot resistance.

I had previously designated Tuesday's 24Hr low as a multi-day low, and it indeed had the same hallmarks of one as the current 24Hr low in that price was able to rise above 24Hr MA and daily pivot resistance and even tested the monthly pivot. However, price was never able to use the 24Hr MA or daily pivot as support for a 24Hr low; and while it was a lower low than yesterday's low bar, the close of yesterday's bar was lower. We are currently in the timeframe to see a 24Hr high, and the 24Hr low is projected for near the close. If yesterday's low was a MD low, price should find support for the next 24Hr low on the daily pivot or 24Hr MA, both currently at the same 2050 level.   

Wednesday 7/8/2015

The daily chart shows price yesterday making a higher high and (slightly) higher low and closing above the daily and weekly pivots and MD MA. Price today has opened above the daily pivot but is currently trading lower to test the daily pivot and MD MA. Each of the last three days has seen large spikes down as evidenced by the large bottoming tails on the candles, but price has thus far found "soft" support on the blue MD MA. That moving average has started to flatten out, and if price can continue to hold above it, it will confirm Monday as a multi-week low. Price has thus far been trapped on the upside by the monthly pivot, indicating that we are still on the downside of the multi-month and/or multi-year cycle. It is possible that this is merely due to price being on the downside of the MD cycle and that the turn in that cycle will see price break above the monthly pivot.  With the multi-week high projected for next Tuesday, however, price has little time and lots of higher-timeframe resistance to get through to avoid making yet another lower MW high.

The hourly chart shows price yesterday making a 24Hr low (and early multi-day low) at noon yesterday before rallying sharply to find its 24Hr high just after the NY close under monthly pivot resistance. Yesterday's MD low was a few ticks higher than the Sunday evening MD low, which also argues that Monday was a MW low. Price may have seen a higher 24Hr low several bars ago, as price was recently able to trade above the gold Session MA and turn that average upward as price tested white 24Hr MA and daily pivot resistance. The next 24Hr high is not projected until the close, but the last few 24Hr cycles have been running abnormally short. If we are on the upside of the MD cycle and MW cycle, I would expect price to be able to find support on the Session MA for a session low near the open before breaking through 24Hr MA/daily pivot resistance. Price should then retest the monthly pivot later today or in the next several days. Failure to break through daily pivot resistance would indicate that we are again on the downside of the multi-day cycle and would be hard to justify from my framework.

Tuesday 7/7/2015

The daily chart shows price yesterday making a lower high and lower low versus Friday but closing above the daily and weekly pivots and above Friday's close. Price today has thus far opened above the daily pivot and made a higher high and higher low. It is obvious that yesterday's low was a multi-day low, but it is less clear if it was anything more than that. When we are overdue for both the multi-week low and multi-month low, each multi-day low has the possibility of also being the MW and MM low from which a sharp rally will arise. Today's action has turned the MD MA upward, and if price doesn't turn back down to negate this then it is a solid indication that yesterday also saw a MW low put in. If we are on the upside of the MW cycle, price should move up to test the green MW MA (currently at 2085.49) before finding its MW high which is projected for next Tuesday. If we are on the downside of the multi-month and/or multi-year cycle, price may not be able to get above monthly pivot resistance. Price today appeared to find resistance at the monthly pivot, but it is too early to draw any conclusions from this action.

The hourly chart shows price having made a 24Hr high yesterday at weekly pivot resistance but finding support for its 24Hr low on 24Hr MA support; this action confirmed the Sunday night low as a multi-day low. The multi-day high is projected for 7/9, but higher timeframe resistance in the form of the monthly pivot or MW MA could see this high put in earlier. Price rose overnight and likely put in an early 24Hr high at monthly pivot resistance. Price has since fallen back in the pre-market and currently testing the 24Hr MA. The 24Hr low is projected for near the close, but if we are still on the upside of the MD cycle then the low could be put in early on 24Hr MA or MD MA support; the daily pivot further below would be the other source of support for the 24Hr low to be found. If the overnight high was also a MD high, the weekly pivot could provide support for a low, but a retest of the Monday lows would be more likely. Resistance for any move upward today would include the monthly pivot/overnight high area and the green MW MA just above that.

Monday 7/6/2015

The monthly chart shows June having made a lower high and lower low and closing below the monthly pivot and MM MA. Price thus far in July has made a lower high and lower low and is trading below both the July monthly pivot and the MM MA. This action, along with the flattening of the MM MA, is indicative of price being on the downside of the multi-year cycle. Given that we are far overdue to have seen the MY high, it is very reasonable to assume this is the case; we are far too early in this month's candle to say it with any certainty, however.  If we are on the downside of the MY cycle, the white MY MA at 1970 is the minimum downside target, with the yearly pivot at 1948 as a secondary target before the MY low is seen.

The weekly chart shows price last week making a lower high and lower low and closing below the MW MA, MM MA and the weekly and monthly pivots. Price early in this week's candle has opened below the weekly pivot and has made a lower high and lower low, indicative of price still being on the downside of the multi-month cycle. We are overdue for the multi-month low to be seen, and today's low was made in the area of prior support that put in the March MM low. There is no evidence whatsoever that today will be the MM low; evidence of this is will be when price regains the green MW MA and is able to turn that average upward.

The daily chart shows price last week making a rare Monday high and Tuesday low. Price today has opened above the daily pivot but has taken out last week's low on the news of the Greek vote. The lower low is obvious evidence that we are still on the downside of the multi-week cycle. We are overdue for the MW low to be seen. When the low has been made, price will be able to trade above the blue MD MA and turn that average upward. Given the overdue nature of the multi-month low as well, it is likely that the MW low will also be a MM low, and price should see a sharp rally afterward; whether price will be able to get back above the MM MA at the 2094 area will depend on where we are in the multi-year cycle.

The hourly chart shows price overnight gapping down sharply to its 24Hr low, exactly 24 hourly bars from the prior 24Hr low. Price then rallied up to the 24Hr MA where it appears to have made its 24Hr high exactly 24 bars from the prior 24Hr high. Price doesn't always behave with such rigid predictability, but it does happen with surprising frequency. The next 24Hr low is projected for after the close. The multi-day low is not projected until after the close tomorrow. Unless the overnight low was an earlier-than-projected MD low, today should see price on the downside of the 24Hr, MD, MW, and MM (and maybe MY) cycles. This should lead to a trend down day, but it is uncertain how much the large gap down may mute what should otherwise be bearish price action today.  

Thursday 7/2/2015

The daily chart shows price yesterday making a higher low and higher high versus the prior bar. Price today has opened above the daily pivot and is currently testing yesterday's high and the MD MA. It is still unclear whether price has seen its multi-week low, as price has yet to close above the MD MA and turn that average upward. If the MW low was seen on Tuesday, price should be expected to at least visit the MW MA near 2089 before making its MW high (projected for 7/14). If the MW low is still ahead of us, price should falter at the MD MA and price will retest the Tuesday low.

The hourly chart shows price making a 24Hr low early yesterday afternoon on 24Hr MA support, behavior indicative of being on the uside of the multi-day cycle. Price has since made its way up to the MD MA as called for yesterday and has eclipsed yesterday's high. We are overdue for a multi-day high to be seen; if Tuesday was a MW low as well as a MD low, then I would expect price to right-translate its MD cycle and perhaps visit the 2091 area at the monthly pivot and MW MA confluence before the MD high is seen.

It is unclear whether we are overdue for the 24Hr high or whether there was an intervening half-span 24Hr cycle with a high before yesterday's close and a low made overnight on daily pivot and 24Hr MA support. The fact that the gold Session MA turned downward overnight is an indication that this may be the case. If so, the 24Hr high would be projected for after the close, and I would expect price to reach the 2091-2092 area. If there was no intervening 24Hr cycle and we are indeed overdue for the 24Hr high, then I would expect the high to be seen around the NY open and price should then sell off down to at least the white 24Hr MA before seeing its 24Hr low (projected for early afternoon).