Thursday 4/9/2015

The daily chart shows price yesterday opening below the daily pivot, making a lower low and lower high, but closing above the daily pivot and the MM MA. Price thus far today has opened above the daily pivot but is currently trading down, testing the daily pivot and MM and MD MAs. We are currently in a Monday low/Tuesday high situation for the week, one rare enough that it is unlikely to hold for the remainder of the week; this means the odds are very high that price will make a high for the week in the next two days or plummet to take out Monday's low. Given that we are on the upside of the MW cycle (the top of that cycle is projected for 4/13), the odds favor price moving to the upside. The rising blue MD MA should provide support for price today if these new highs for the week are to be made; should the MD MA fail, it opens the possibility that the MM MA provided resistance to bring about an early MW high and Monday's lows would be more vulnerable.

The hourly chart shows price making a 24Hr high yesterday right at the projected time, a lower 24Hr high which confirms Tuesday's high as a MD high. Price gyrated fairly wildly during the afternoon before putting in a lower session high after the close and breaking below the daily pivot and 24Hr MA overnight. It is possible that a 24Hr low was made 4 bars ago- price subsequently rallied above the daily pivot and 24Hr MA and has flattened out the gold session MA. A 24Hr high is projected for the 11:00am bar- the same bar projection for the next session low. The session cycle is typically 5-7 hours in length, so it is possible that the session MA will provide support for an early session low and price will then try to take out yesterday's (and perhaps Tuesday's) high. The MD low was projected for overnight, so if this morning's low was indeed the 24Hr low, it would confirm yesterday's 24Hr low as the MD low and the bulls would have no excuse not to take out this week's high. Failure to do so puts in question the status of the MW cycle as mentioned above.