Friday 4/17/2015

Yesterday saw price make an inside day versus the prior candlestick, finding support again on the rising MD MA and resistance again at the declining upper triangle boundary. Price today has opened above the daily pivot but has thus far made a lower high and lower low and is currently trading below the MD MA. As to what it means, re-read yesterday's commentary as it all applies again today. Bulls need to see price close above the MD MA to keep alive hopes that price is still on the upside of the MW cycle. Failure to do so would indicate another lower MW high was made and we should expect price to test the MM MA or monthly pivot at a minimum, but most likely a retest of the early April lows.

I should also note that we currently are in a Tuesday low/Wednesday high situation for the week. It has been mentioned several times already in the short re-birth of this blog that Wednesday highs or lows for the week occur infrequently and usually mark multi-week highs or lows. There is still the possibility that price sells off hard today and takes out Tuesday's low, making a more normal (in bearish moves) Friday low for the week. Either case is bearish, unless this is just a very rare Wednesday high with no significance.

The hourly chart shows price making a 24Hr high yesterday an hour before the NY close. This high was essentially a double top with Wednesday's multi-day high, and it came exactly 24 hourly bars after that high. Price bounced along the daily pivot over night before finally breaking this support and selling off sharply through the MD MA. The 24Hr low was projected for one bar ago, and it is possible that low was made one bar earlier, but a higher session low will be needed to confirm this. The blue weekly pivot or green MW MA would be more logical places to find support for this low, but it is possible the test of that support will wait until the next 24Hr low.

Yesterday's hourly chart commentary said the key would be if MD MA support held and how price reacted to the 24Hr MA and daily pivot resistance when searching for its 24Hr high. Things looked good for the bulls when the support did hold and price blasted through resistance, but the overnight fall through MD MA support has put the ball back in the bear's court. The multi-day low is not projected until 4/20, and the MW low is not projected until 4/22. Unless price can regain the MD MA and break back above daily pivot and 24Hr MA resistance, the odds favor a test of the lower targets mentioned above.