Thursday 12/31/15

Yesterday saw price make a higher low and higher high but solidly lower close versus Tuesday. Price today has opened below its daily pivot and is trading below the monthly pivot and the MD and MM MAs.  We are obviously on the downside of the multi-day cycle; given the overdue nature of the MW high, it is likely that we are now also on the downside of the multi-week cycle. If so, price would be expected to decline to the MW MA and weekly pivot at 2035-2037, and possibly even down to the dashed green trendline drawn from prior multi-month lows.  The projected date for the MW low is 1/6/15.

The hourly chart shows price yesterday falling throughout the day after having made a MD high just after the close Tuesday.  It appears that we saw a 24Hr low at the close yesterday, but price was unable to muster much of a bounce, making its 24Hr high well below the daily pivot and 24Hr MA, a bearish sign of weakness.   Price has since broken below the MD MA in pre-market trading, making it likely that the MD high was also a MW high.

A 24Hr low is not projected until today's close.  With price also being on the downside of the multi-day cycle and possibly the multi-week cycle, I would expect price to continue falling all day; a test of the MW MA at 2038 would be the first likely target.

Wednesday 12/30/15

The daily chart shows price yesterday making a higher low, higher high and higher close versus Monday's candle, taking out the mid-December high in the process.  Price today has thus far opened above its daily pivot and made a higher high but is currently trading below yesterday's close.

With yesterday's action, any fear that the mid-December high was an early MW high under monthly pivot/MM MA resistance was eliminated.  While the ensuing pullback from that high dropped below several higher timeframe pivots and MAs that should have provided support, it can now be confirmed that the pullback was merely the downside of the multi-day cycle.

While an extended MW high made above all higher timeframe pivots and MAs is far more bullish than an early MW high made under those same pivots and MAs, the market is not completely out of the woods. The odds of a new all-time high before the next multi-month high (projected for the week ending 1/22/16) have increased dramatically, but there is first the issue of an overdue MW high to settle.  It may be asking too much for price to break through so much overhead resistance before the MW cycle finally rolls over in search of its MW low projected for 1/6.  When price breaks below the blue MD MA, it will be a clue that the MW high has likely been seen.

The hourly chart shows price rising throughout the day yesterday until finding its 24Hr high after the close.  Price was finally able to break Session MA support in overnight trading and recently broke 24Hr MA support one bar ago.   Due to yesterday's day-long rally, we are well overdue to see a 24Hr low.   If price is still on the upside of the multi-day cycle, we should find support on the daily pivot and then move higher until the close.    Should the daily pivot fail to provide support to price, it will indicate that price has seen an early MD high; given the overdue nature of the MW high, it will possibly also mean the MW high has been seen.  Price would then be expected to drop to at least the 2048 area for its MD low, and perhaps down to the 2035 area over the coming days for its MW low.

Tuesday 12/29/15

Yesterday saw price make a lower high and lower low, closing below its daily pivot but finding support on the weekly pivot and MD and MW MAs.  Price today has opened above its daily pivot and is challenging Thursday's high.  With the action of the last several days, the blue MD MA has turned upward, signalling that price is on the upside of the MD cycle.  This would mean that the mid-December swing high was merely a multi-day high, and that price is still searching for its overdue multi-week high.

Should price eclipse the mid-December high, which I feel is most likely, it would indicate that this MW cycle was very extended and likely indicate that the December MW low was also a MM low.  This would be a bullish scenario that would strengthen the odds that price is on the upside of a new multi-year cycle and mean new all-time highs should be seen in early 2016. Alternatively, a double-top with the mid-December high would make sense, as the tops would straddle the projected date of the MW high, a somewhat common occurrence that would have neutral connotations.  Lastly, price could fall short of the mid-December high and leave that high as an early MW high, but I think that this bearish outcome is the least likely.

The hourly chart shows price yesterday finding support on the weekly pivot for its 24Hr low.  It was mentioned in yesterday's blog that the weekly pivot would be the logical place to find support for its daily and multi-day lows, and that is indeed what happened.  This was very bullish as the higher MD low signals that price is on the upside of the MW cycle, a status that was unclear until the MD low was confirmed.

We are well overdue for a 24Hr high to be seen, and a 24Hr low is projected for late morning. It is possible that we will see an inversion, with the high being seen late morning.  Price should find support for its eventual 24Hr low on the white 24Hr MA or the daily pivot, as price continues on the upside of the MD cycle. 

  

12/28/15 - Uncertainty abounds

Heading into the final week of trading for the year, the monthly chart shows price in December having made a lower high and lower low versus November's candle.  Price is trading below its monthly pivot but above the MM and MY MAs and above the yearly pivot.

This mixed picture does nothing to answer the question of whether we are on the upside or downside of the multi-year cycle.    If price can close this week above the MM MA then that average will have turned upward, a clue that the August low was a multi-year low.  Should price close below the MM MA, that average will likely remain flat and leave open the possibility that price has not yet seen its MY low.

The weekly chart shows price last week making a lower high and higher low than the prior week, with price closing above the MW MA but just below monthly pivot resistance.   Price early in this week's candle has opened above its weekly pivot but is currently trading below it and is testing the MW MA from above.

Just as the monthly chart is inconclusive as to whether we are on the upside or downside of the MY cycle, the weekly chart is inconclusive as to whether we are on the upside or downside of the multi-month cycle.   We are overdue to have seen a MM low; it is possible that the low of two weeks ago was that low, but it is also possible that the low has yet to be seen.   If we are on the upside of the MM cycle, price should find support here at the MW MA and turn higher into its 1/22 projected MM high.   If price is still on the downside of the MM cycle, price should move lower this week and take out this month's lows.

The daily chart shows price last week making a Monday low and Thursday high a variation of the ML/FH pattern frequently discussed in this blog as typical behavior of price during an uptrend.  We are overdue for a multi-week high to be seen, however, and price has been unable to move above the 12/17 high; this leaves open the possibility that price saw an early MW high under MM MA resistance, a bearish scenario which would indicate that price is likely on the downside of the MW and MM cycles.   If so, price should drop sharply into its 1/6 projected MW low. If price can find support at current levels and take out the 12/17 high, it would indicate that price was still on the upside of the MW cycle and keep alive the possibility that we are also on the upside of the MM cycle.  Needless to say, how this triangle pattern that has been forming the past four weeks is resolved could have profound implications for the long-term health of the market.

The hourly chart shows price making a 24Hr (and multi-day) high in Thursday's shortened trading and then dropping below the 24Hr MA and new daily pivot in Sunday evening trading. Price has fallen from the open today and is currently testing the weekly pivot for support.

We are overdue for a 24Hr low to be seen and are also in the timeframe to see a multi-day low, and the weekly pivot would be a likely place to find support for both of these lows.  When price is able to trade above the gold Session MA and turn that average upward, we will know that the 24Hr low has been seen; when price is able to trade above the daily pivot and 24Hr MA and turn that average upward, we will know that the MD low has also been seen.

Traders should be prepared for extreme volatility this week.  While the market could be setting up for a strong bounce off of weekly pivot support if it is on the upside of the MW and MM cycles, it could also trade sharply lower this week if we are on the downside of those cycles. Until price is able to make new all-time highs and prove that it is on the upside of a new multi-year cycle, the downside risk of the bearish alternative makes for a terrible risk-reward scenario for swing traders and investors.   

Monday 12/28/15

There will be no morning post due to technological difficulties.  I will post later today when/if able.

Thurday 12/24/15

Despite yesterday's very bullish candle that saw price open at its low of the day and close at its high of the day, nothing has changed from yesterday's commentary; it is still unclear whether last week's high was an early MW high.  Price must take out last week's high to prove that it wasn't, otherwise we should expect price to soon take out last week's low.

Yesterday did clear up some of the uncertainty on the hourly chart.  With the 24Hr high coming at the close yesterday, it makes it easier to designate the prior 24Hr high and low.  The next 24Hr high is projected for the close, but we must remember that the market closes early today. We are overdue to see a multi-day high, and it is possible that yesterday's high will prove to be that high.  A break of the 24Hr MA will likely mean that the 24Hr high (and MD high) has been seen and price should then be expected to visit the MD MA early next week.  

There will be no commentary tomorrow.  Merry Christmas to all!

Wednesday 12/23/15

Price yesterday made a higher low, higher high and higher close versus Monday's candle, closing above the MD MA.  Price today has opened above its daily pivot, eclipsed yesterday's high and is currently trading above the MW MA.  Price is still on the upside of the multi-day cycle, but it is still unclear whether we are on the upside or downside of the multi-week cycle. Though certainly not timely, we may not know the answer to that question until price breaks below last week's low or above last week's high.

The hourly chart shows price yesterday finding support on the daily pivot and 24Hr MA then moving higher into the close before finding resistance at the MW MA.  We traded sideways overnight, bouncing along the Session MA before breaking above the MW MA several hours ago.

It is unclear whether yesterday's 24Hr high occurred in pre-market trading or just after the close. In the former case, price traded below the Session MA and turned that average lower indicating that price was on the downside of the daily cycle.   There was no lower Session high during this period, however, which is another hallmark of being on the downside of the daily cycle.   In the latter case, price did see a lower Session high in overnight trading, but price continued to find support on the Session MA.   This makes the timing of the next 24Hr high uncertain; we could be overdue for the high to be seen or it may not be due until the close.  More importantly, the next 24Hr high is likely to be a multi-day high, so when price breaks below the gold Session MA, I would expect price to show a steeper decline into its 24Hr low than the modest pullbacks seen thus far this week.

Tuesday 12/22/2015

The daily chart shows price yesterday making a higher low and lower high, closing above its daily and weekly pivots.   Price today has opened above its daily pivot and is trading little-changed versus yesterday's close.   The behavior of yesterday and today is that of price being on the upside of the multi-day cycle.  This was a welcome sign for the bulls, as it keeps alive the hope that price is still on the upside of the multi-week cycle, but much work remains to be done. Unless price can move above the MD MA and turn that average upward then it is likely that price will find a multi-day high today or tomorrow and turn lower to take out Friday's low.

The hourly chart shows price yesterday making a 24Hr high below the weekly pivot but seeing an early, higher 24Hr low on soft support from the daily pivot and 24Hr MA, confirming the Friday low as a MD low.  Price was then able to break through weekly pivot support but was unable to make much headway, stalling below the MD MA.  Price again found support on the daily pivot/24Hr MA several hours ago, but thus far it has failed to surpass the overnight high.

While price could still take out the overnight high and indicate that we are still on the upside of the daily cycle, a lower Session high here would indicate that the overnight high was the 24Hr high; given that we are in the timeframe to see a MD high, it is possible that it will also prove to be a MD high.  Any move below the pre-market low will confirm that the 24Hr high has been seen.  A 24Hr low is projected for noon, but if price is on the downside of the MW and MD cycles, it is possible that the 24Hr low could extend in time.

Monday 12/21/15

The monthly chart shows price thus far in December having made a lower high and higher low than November.   Price is trading below its monthly pivot but just above the MM and MY MAs, leaving us uncertain as to whether price is on the upside of a new multi-year cycle or if price will soon take out the August lows in search of its MY low.  Bulls certainly want the month to close above the MM and MY MAs, and would prefer a close above the monthly pivot, while bears would prefer the opposite.

The weekly chart shows price last week making a lower high and lower low versus the prior week, closing at the MY MA but below the weekly and monthly pivots and MW and MM MAs. This behavior indicates that price was still on the downside of the multi-month cycle, searching for its overdue MM low.  Early in this week's candle price has opened below its weekly pivot and is trading modestly above last week's close.   If last week was the MM low, price should soon trade above the green MW MA and turn that average upward.   If we have not yet seen the MM low, price will obviously take out last week's low within the next few weeks.

The daily chart shows price last week making a MW low on Monday but appearing to find resistance at the monthly pivot and MM MA before moving sharply lower on Thursday and Friday.  While it is possible that price is merely correcting on the downside of the MD cycle, we must be aware of the possibility that price saw an early, lower MW high caused by that higher timeframe resistance.   If the former case is correct then price should bounce immediately and reclaim the MD MA and start to turn that average upward.  If the latter bearish scenario is correct, price will be moving lower for the next two weeks searching for its next MW low projected for 1/5/16.

The hourly chart shows price making a MD high on Thursday and falling with little pause until finding its 24Hr low just after the close on Friday.  Price has since moved modestly higher and was able to move above the 24Hr MA and daily pivot, indicating that Friday's low was likely a MD low.  As mentioned above, if price is on the upside of the MW cycle and has merely been correcting into a MD low, price has no excuse to not move higher this week.  A 24Hr high is projected for late morning, but it is possible that high will be extended in time if price is on the upside of the MD and MW cycles.  Bulls need to see a higher 24Hr low, projected for near the close, to confirm that Friday's low was a MD low.  

Friday 12/18/15

Price yesterday made a higher high but lower low and sharply lower close versus Wednesday's candle.  Price thus far today has opened below its daily pivot and made a lower low.  This is behavior indicative of price being on the downside of the multi-day cycle, a situation whose likelihood was mentioned in yesterday's blog.  It was also mentioned that this occurrence would bring into question whether price saw an early multi-week high under MM MA resistance, and that question must indeed be asked.  Unfortunately, at this point there is no definitive answer.

If price can rally today and close higher, it is likely that the weekly pivot will have provided "soft support" for a multi-day low and give price a chance to take out yesterday's high by the 12/24 projection for the MW high.   Obviously, price taking out Monday's low would confirm that yesterday was indeed an early MW high, but even a slightly higher low (but solidly below the weekly pivot) would keep the fear of an early MW high alive.   If Thursday was an early MW high, price should be expected to fall, potentially sharply, in search of its next MW low which is not projected until 1/5/16.

The hourly chart shows price making its 24Hr high (and MD high) in yesterday's pre-market trading and then falling throughout the day before finding support after the close at the weekly pivot.  We are overdue for price to see a 24Hr low, and we are also in the timeframe for price to see a MD low.  The weekly pivot would be a logical place for price to find support for both of these lows, but thus far price has been unable to muster any rally, and we are already at the projected time for the 24Hr high to be seen.

If price is on the upside of the MW and MM cycles, price would be expected to move sharply higher out of its MD low.  Should price fail to do so today, it would be a very strong indication that price is NOT on the upside of those cycles.  While this scenario would not guarantee a dramatic price decline, it would keep the possibility alive.

Thursday 12/17/15

The daily chart shows price yesterday making a higher low, higher high and higher close, closing slightly above the MM MA.  Price early in today's candle has opened above its daily pivot and has made a slightly higher high than yesterday.

With the MD MA having provided support for price yesterday and now curling upward, it is obvious that price is on the upside of the multi-week cycle.  It is still unclear whether price is on the upside or downside of the multi-month cycle.  If price were to reverse course today and close lower, it could be argued that the MM MA provided soft resistance for an early MW high and that price is still on the downside of the MM cycle.  Unfortunately, we are in the timeframe to see a MD high, so a reversal at these levels could very well happen but be nothing more than a correction of the MD cycle.  Price would have to take out the October highs to confirm that we are on the upside of the MM cycle, and while that may happen before the 12/24 projection for the MW high, it is unlikely to happen before a turn of the MD cycle.

The hourly chart shows price rising throughout the day yesterday, pulling back slightly before the Fed's decision to raise rates, then surging higher into the close.  Price drifted modestly lower in after hours trading and appears to have made a 24Hr low overnight just below the Session MA but above the daily pivot and 24Hr MA.  We have since taken out yesterday's high and are currently falling back into a session low.  With a 24Hr high projected for the close, price should find support at the Session MA and turn higher, rising throughout the day.   Failure to do so would indicate that the high several bars ago was a 24Hr high and likely a multi-day high.  In that scenario, price would be expected to drop below the daily pivot and test the MD MA near 2041 today or tomorrow.

Wednesday 12/16/15

After finding support Monday on the trendline drawn from prior multi-month lows, price yesterday made a higher low and higher high than Monday, closing above the weekly pivot and MD MA.  Price today has opened above its daily pivot and is currently trading above yesterday's high.  The action of the last two days indicates that price is on the upside of the MW cycle, and I have marked Monday as the MW low.

The MW high is projected for 12/24, but if we are still on the downside of the MM cycle then price will likely find resistance at the confluence area of the MW MA, MM MA and monthly pivot near 2057 to see this high put in early.  If Monday was also a MM low, I would expect price to exceed this level en route to new highs by the late January projection for the next MM high. While I believe the odds favor the bullish scenario, I must emphasize that risk is still very high for a large downside move.   An early MW high under MW MW resistance would be bearish and leave open the possibility that the August lows will be revisited and possibly taken out.

The hourly chart shows price yesterday rising until early afternoon when it found its 24Hr high just below monthly pivot resistance.   It appears that price found its 24Hr low just after the close on MD MA support (and at the level that became the new daily pivot one hour later).  Price then drifted higher in overnight and pre-market trading and is currently trading just above the monthly pivot and below the MW MA.

A 24Hr high is projected for early afternoon, and it is possible that the next 24Hr high will also be a multi-day high.  This means we could be on the downside of the 24Hr and MD cycles when the Fed announces their decision on interest rates; if so, a negative reaction to the decision would be the expected outcome.  

Tuesday 12/15/15

Yesterday saw a lower high and lower low but slightly higher close versus Friday's candle.  Price thus far today has opened above its daily pivot and currently testing the MD MA and weekly pivot from below.  Today's action would indicate that price is on the upside of the multi-day cycle, which would mean that yesterday was a multi-day low; it remains to be seen whether yesterday was also a multi-week (and perhaps multi-month) low.

If price is still on the downside of the MW cycle, price should find resistance at current levels and turn lower to take out yesterday's low in the coming day or two.   If yesterday was a multi-week low, price should be able to trade above the MD MA and turn that average upward within  the next few days.  Price will let us know, and it will do it soon.   If price is still on the downside of the multi-month cycle, any rally in the MW cycle should be capped by the MW MA/MM MA/monthly pivot confluence area near 2058.  If yesterday was also a MM low, price could see new highs by the 1/22/16 projected date for the next MM high.

The hourly chart shows price yesterday making an earlier than projected 24Hr low at noon and then rallying up to the weekly pivot just after the close.   Price drifted slightly lower in evening trading before breaking above weekly pivot resistance.

It is possible that price saw an early 24Hr high at the weekly pivot followed by an early 24Hr low just above the 24Hr MA.   If not, price is slightly overdue to see its 24Hr high, and a break below the gold Session MA would indicate that high has been seen.  We are also in the timeframe to see a MD high, so unless yesterday was a MW low, price would be vulnerable to a sharp decline over the next day or two which would take out yesterday's low.   

Monday 12/14/15

The monthly candle shows price thus far in December having made a slightly lower high and slightly higher low than the November candle.  Price is currently testing the MM MA and MY MA and should find support at this level if price is on the upside of the MY cycle.   If price is not on the upside of the MY cycle, then that means the August low was not a MY low and price should soon fall below that level.  Price has done everything it can over the past two months to keep both arguments plausible.

The weekly chart shows price last week making a lower high and sharply lower low and close versus the prior week.  Price early in this week's candle has opened below its weekly pivot and made a lower low, testing the MY MA and November's low.   It had appeared that the November low was likely a multi-month low, as it found support at the MM MA one week after the projection for the MM low to be seen.  With price trading below the MW and MM MAs and the weekly and monthly pivots, however, it appears that we are still on the downside of the MM cycle.  If the November low was not the MM low then that low is very overdue; the extension past projection for the MM low has bearish connotations, but price should soon find a bottom and bounce into its MM high projected for the third week of January.

The daily chart shows price last week making a Monday high and Friday low (MH/FL), the bearish version of the ML/FH scenario often discussed in this blog.  Price early in today's candle has opened below its daily pivot and is just several ticks above the November multi-week low.  We are overdue for a MW low to be seen, and it likely that the next MW low will also be the overdue MM low (if the November low doesn't hold).  A MW high is projected for Christmas eve, but until price can trade above the blue MD MA we must assume that price remains on the downside of the MW cycle.

The hourly chart shows price on Friday making a 24Hr high under daily pivot resistance and dropping throughout the day before finding its 24Hr low just after the close (as projected).  Price rallied in Sunday evening trading back up to the daily pivot (and new weekly pivot), where it again found resistance for its 24Hr high and sold off below Friday's low.  Price is currently bouncing into a Session high, but will likely find resistance at the current level and then probe lower as it searches for its 24Hr low projected for after the close (again).

We are now in the timeframe to expect the next 24Hr low (or the one after) to be a MD low. Given the overdue nature of the MW low (and possibly MM low), there is a very good chance that price will see a strong rally starting some time this week.  A move above the weekly pivot will be a good clue that this rally is kicking off.

Friday 12/11/15

The daily chart shows price yesterday making a lower high and higher low and slightly higher close versus Wednesday.  The MD MA again provided resistance to yesterday's move, indicating that price is still on the downside of the multi-week cycle.   Price today has confirmed this by opening below the daily pivot and making a new low for the week; in doing so, this week has seen a Monday high and Friday low (MH-FL), textbook bearish action during the downside of MW cycle.

We are now overdue for the MW low to be seen.  The fact that the MW low has extended in time is a worrisome hint that we may be on the downside of the multi-month cycle, and if we are on the downside of the MM cycle then the MW low could extend in time even further.  Even more troublesome, if we are still on the downside of the MM cycle, then we are overdue for the MM low, which in turn hints that we are on the downside of the multi-year cycle.   

I had mentioned in Monday's blog that this week's action was very important- with just the slightest effort bulls could have achieved all-time highs and confirmed that price was on the upside of the MW, MM and MY cycles; instead we have seen growing indications that the exact opposite was true.   The bullish argument is not yet dead, but the risk of a sharp sell-off has increased dramatically.

The hourly chart is just as confusing today as it was yesterday.   I mentioned that the setup yesterday morning looked very similar to the prior day's setup, and indeed the action was similar.  Price rallied on the open, found resistance at the MD MA and quickly reversed the rally. While I am not extremely confident my designations of the 24Hr low and high, it does appear that somewhere in the after hours sideways trading that both were seen.  Price has since started falling in pre-market trading as it searches for its 24Hr low projected for after today's close.

I am equally unsure about my MD low and MD high designations.   I had mentioned yesterday that if Wednesday morning's sharp move up and then back down were news-related that I would just ignore it as noise, as the moves didn't make much sense cyclically.  Well, despite the fact that they were not news-related, I have still decided to treat the move as noise; this changes the MD low to the Wednesday low and the MD high to yesterday's high.  With a MD low not projected for Monday or Tuesday and the 24Hr low not projected until after the close, this should be a trend day down.  Failure of price to sell off sharply today would be a good indication that the MW low has been seen, forcing an early 24Hr low and MD low in the process.

Thursday 12/10/15

The daily chart shows price yesterday making a lower high, lower low, and lower close versus Tuesday's candle.  Price thus far today has opened below its daily pivot and is trading near yesterday's lows.  With price having taken out last week's lows, it is obvious that we are still on the downside of the multi-week cycle, and with price below the MM MA and monthly pivot, we could very well be on the downside of the multi-month cycle as well.  A move below the November lows will confirm this; such a move would also increase the odds that we are still on the downside of the multi-year cycle and indicate that the August lows will be revisited and possibly taken out.

The hourly chart is the most confusing chart I can recall seeing.   It appeared that price had made its 24Hr low just after the open as price then rocketed higher up to the weekly pivot.   I had mentioned yesterday that we were possibly due for a multi-day low and that a break above daily pivot support would likely lead to a 10 point move higher, and possibly significantly more over the remainder of the week if the MD low was also a MW low.  Well, we got the 10 point move in a flash but then quickly took out the early morning low just two hours later.  Price inexplicably then stopped its decline and moved higher/sideways the remainder of the day and in overnight trading.

How and why did we see a 24Hr low just three bars after the prior 24Hr low?   If the brief surge higher was news-related, I could easily dismiss the move as noise and use the prior session high seven bars earlier as the 24Hr high under daily pivot resistance; the low I marked as a 24Hr low would then simply be a 3Hr low or session low and the ultimate low would be the 24Hr low.  The move higher was not news-related however, and to make matters worse it appears likely that it was also a multi-day high.  How does one ignore a MD high as "noise"?

We are currently facing a chart that looks much like yesterday's hourly chart looked at this same time.  Price has moved up and sideways from a low and has started to arch back down after finding resistance at the daily pivot and 24Hr MA.   The difference is that we were in a timeframe for a MD low to be seen yesterday, and if yesterday's high was indeed a MD high then we are now possibly days away from seeing another MD low.  A 24Hr low is not expected until early afternoon, leaving open the possibility of an ugly morning for the bulls.  

Wednesday 12/9/15

The daily chart shows price yesterday making a lower high and lower low, closing just below the MM MA and monthly pivot.  Price today has opened below its daily pivot and has thus far shown little movement from yesterday's close.  Yesterday was the projected date for the multi-week low, but while price has not yet taken out last Thursday's low it also continues to ride MD MA resistance lower - evidence of still being on the downside of the MW cycle.

Frequent readers of this blog will know that Wednesdays are rarely the high or low of the week, except when they mark a MW high or low.  Last Wednesday marked the MW high, and it remains to be seen whether today will mark the MW low,  last Thursday was the MW low, or if the low will stretch into late this week or next.  Price closing above the MD MA will be the first clue that the MW low is behind us; the MD MA turning upward will be confirmation.

The hourly chart shows price yesterday making a late morning 24Hr low but the white 24Hr MA continued to cap any attempts to move up.   Price appears to have made a last-gasp attempt to break 24Hr MA and daily pivot resistance in overnight trading, which likely marked the 24Hr high.  We have since traded lower in search of the 24Hr low which is projected for noon.

We are in the timeframe to see both a MW and MD low, so it is very possible that we could see a strong rally once today's 24Hr low is seen.  A break above the daily pivot near 2064 should result in at least a 10 point rally to the MD MA and potentially much higher over the next few days.  Until 24Hr MA/daily pivot resistance is broken, however, we must assume that price continues on the downside of both the MD and MW cycles.

Tuesday 12/8/15

The daily chart shows price yesterday making a higher high and higher low but lower close versus Friday's candle.  Today price has opened just above its daily pivot but has taken out yesterday's low and is testing the monthly pivot for support.  We have been unable to stay above the MD MA, which indicates that price is still on the downside of the multi-week cycle.

Today is the projected date for the MW low, but just as there is still hope that perhaps last Thursday was an early MW low, there is always the chance that the MW low could come later than projected.  Bulls want to see the monthly pivot provide support for this MW low, bears want to see this MW low take out the November MW low; the market doing what it does, the low will likely be made somewhere in the middle, leaving uncertainty as to which side has won.

The hourly chart shows price yesterday making a 24Hr high in pre-market trading and falling sharply into its 24Hr low at noon.  Price bounced slightly into a half-span 24Hr high under MD MA resistance just after the NY close and has drifted lower in overnight/pre-market trading.  The last hourly candle saw price take out both yesterday's low and the monthly pivot as price searches for its 24Hr low which is not projected until early afternoon.  Bulls would love to see soft support by the monthly pivot for an early 24Hr low, but would settle for a 24Hr low above Thursday's low.  As always, when price is able to trade above the Session MA and turn that average upward, we will know the 24Hr low is behind us.

Monday 12/7/15 - Perhaps the most important trading week of the year.

The monthly chart shows price in November having made a higher low and higher than October's candle, though the close showed little change.  One week into December's candle, price has opened above its monthly pivot but again has shown little change from November's close.

With price trading above its monthly and yearly pivots and its MM MA and MY MA, it appears that price is trading on the upside of the multi-year cycle.  This would mean that the August low was a multi-year low and that price should be expected to ride MM MA support into the next MY high projected for August 2016.  Until price can make a new all-time high or a higher monthly low on the weekly chart, however, there is still the possibility that price has yet to see its MY low. Each month that passes makes this less and less likely, given that August was already past the projected date for the MY low.

The weekly chart shows price last week making a higher high, lower low and slightly lower close versus the prior week's candle.  Price very early in this week's bar has opened above its weekly pivot but is trading slightly below last week's close.  With price trading above the weekly and monthly pivots and above the MW and MM MAs, it would appear that price is on the upside of the MW and MM cycles, and that the November swing low was a MM low.  This MM low has not yet been confirmed, however, as we have not seen a higher MW on the daily chart since that November low, nor has price been able to eclipse the November MM high.   As in the scenario discussed above on the monthly chart, the longer price takes without taking out the November low, the more likely it is that it was indeed a MM low.  If it was, price should be on the upside of the MM cycle until its next projected MM high in late January 2016.

The daily chart shows price last week having made a MW high on Wednesday followed by a sharp decline on Thursday which found soft support on the MM MA and monthly pivot for a big bounce on Friday.   It is unclear at this point whether Thursday's low was the MW low which was projected for tomorrow.   If price is indeed on the upside of the MY and MM cycles, then price would be expected to find support for an early MW low at this level; this higher MW low would confirm the mid-November low as a higher MM low, which would in turn confirm the August low as a multi-year low.  So one can see that the action this week is very important, as a move above last week's high confirms that we are on the upside of the MY, MM and MW cycles, while a move below last week's low would leave open the bearish possibility that we are on the downside of each of those cycles.

The hourly chart shows price falling sharply on Thursday into its MD low, then making a higher 24Hr low late Friday morning and surging higher into the close.  Price has moved mostly sideways in overnight/pre-market trading, finding support on the MD and MW MAs but not being able to move markedly higher.

We are overdue to see a 24Hr high, and it is possible that the high was seen five bars ago as price is now trading below the gold Session MA and is starting to turn that MA downward.  A 24Hr low is projected for just after the NY open, and if we are still on the upside of the MD cycle then price should find support for this low right here at the 24Hr MA/MD MA/MW MA confluence or slightly lower at the daily pivot/weekly pivot confluence area.  We are in the timeframe to see a MD high with either today's or tomorrow's 24Hr high, however, which combined with the volatility of the past two days and the MW low not being projected until tomorrow means a sharp move lower cannot be counted out.   As mentioned above, what price does this week is hugely meaningful to both the bullish and bearish case.

Friday 12/4/15

The daily chart shows price yesterday making a lower high and sharply lower low and close versus Wednesday's candle.  With a close below both the monthly pivot and MM MA, it is obvious that the overdue multi-week high was seen on Wednesday (yet another Wednesday MW high/low).  Price today has opened below its daily pivot and has thus far been little-changed from yesterday's close.  A MW low is projected for 12/8, and bulls need to hope that the monthly pivot and MM MA can provide "soft" support for this low.  The lower MW high already indicates that price is on the downside of the multi-month cycle.  Failure to find support at this level also puts the belief that price is on the upside of the multi-year cycle in serious jeopardy.

The hourly chart shows price yesterday making a 24Hr high before the NY open and falling hard throughout the day into its 24Hr low at the close. Price rallied in overnight/pre-market trading back up to the daily pivot (and monthly pivot), where it found resistance.   We are in the timeframe for price to see a 24Hr high, and it is possible that the high was already made under this pivot resistance.  A 24Hr low is not projected until the close, but if yesterday's 24Hr low was also a MD low (and perhaps MW low), then price should be able to break through this resistance and test the MD and MW MAs. Until price actually breaks above this resistance, however, trading should be done to the short side today.

Thursday 12/3/15

Well, you can't get much more wrong than yesterday's blog commentary.  Though last Friday's high (actually occurring during the brief futures trading on Thursday) was confirmed as a multi-week high by a lower multi-day low, the fact that the Monday's supposed multi-week low was taken out in yesterday's trading makes that impossible.  There is no scenario in which a MW high can come just 3 days after a prior MW high, so despite being "confirmed", it is apparent that the prior high was not a MW high.  I believe this is the second time in the several years that I have been following this market framework that I've had to dismiss a "confirmed" high or low due to subsequent price action.  While this is disappointing, as after-the-fact changes are something that I despise about Elliott Wave theory, I must accept the fact that nothing is 100% accurate.   In fact, I once backtested a strategy that unwittingly used built-in hindsight in the code, and that strategy still had less than a 90% win rate.  Anyway, back to the charts.

The daily chart shows price yesterday making a higher high but lower low and close versus Tuesday's candle.  Price thus far today has opened below the daily pivot and has made a lower low.  With price trading below the MD MA and now testing the MW MA, it appears that yesterday was the overdue MW high.   A MW low is projected for 12/8, and we will see whether the MW MA can provide support for that low to be seen.

A secondary effect of eliminating last Thursday/Friday as a MW high is that it eliminates Monday as a MW low.  This in turn opens up the possibility that the November MW low was not also a MM low. This means that it is possible that we are still on the downside of the MM cycle, and thus possibly also on the downside of the MY cycle.  While certainly not one of the worst declines the market has seen, yesterday's action was quite impactful, turning the outlook from one of complete bullishness to one of uncertainty.  While I still believe the bullish case will be proven correct with a higher MW low this week or next followed by a move to new highs in the next upleg of the MW cycle, price will do what it wants regardless of my beliefs.

The hourly chart shows price yesterday making a 24Hr high (and MD high) in overnight trading and dropping sharply throughout the day until finding its 24Hr low at the close.   Price had a nice rally overnight into a lower 24Hr high and has again dropped sharply into the MW MA.   With a 24Hr low not projected until today's close, it remains to be seen whether the MW MA can again provide support for an early 24Hr low (and possible MD and MW low).   Until price can make a higher Session low (5-7 hours after the prior swing low) and trade above the Session MA, the bias should be to trade to the downside.

Wednesday 12/2/15

The daily chart shows price yesterday making a higher low and higher high versus Monday's candle.   Price thus far today has opened above the daily pivot and has eclipsed yesterday's high as well as Friday's multi-week high, indicating price is on the upside of a new MW cycle. 

The earlier-than-projected multi-week low and extreme right-translation of the MW high are both very bullish signs indicating that higher timeframe cycles (the multi-month and multi-year) are both moving strongly upward.  The next MW high is not projected until 12/21, and I would expect new all-time highs to be seen before then.

The hourly chart shows price yesterday making an early 24Hr low on daily pivot support (a possibility mentioned yesterday) and launching higher and closing near the highs of the day. Price finally found its 24Hr high in overnight trading and has spent the last several hours heading lower on its way to the slightly overdue 24Hr low.  Support for this low should be found on the 24Hr MA or the daily pivot, as we likely have at least one more daily cycle before seeing a multi-day high.  When price is able to trade above the gold Session MA and turn that average upward, we will know that the 24Hr low has been seen and I would then expect price to rise for the remainder of the day.