Thursday 4/16/2015

Price yesterday opened above the daily pivot and made a higher low and higher high versus the prior bar. Coming out of a multi-day low, and with a multi-day high projected for tomorrow, price was expected to do this. Today's candlestick shows price opening above the daily pivot, but making a lower high and now trading down to the MD MA; it appear that price made an early multi-day high, just under the March highs and the upper triangle boundary.

What does this mean? Well, it's certainly not the most bullish scenario; coming out of Tuesday's MD low, price had every excuse to finally break out above the March (and February) highs. The early MD high which appears to have occurred yesterday could just be a result of the cycles squeezing price within the triangle. Price could easily find support on the MD MA and continue to lead the moving average upward until the multi-week high is in. However, since we are past the time projection for the MW high, we must again be concerned that the MD high was also a MW high and that we will see price drop into the MW low projected for 4/22. Under more normal circumstances, that drop wold be expected to be contained by the weekly or monthly pivots or the MM MA. Since these higher timeframe areas of support have been ignored during the triangle's unfolding, a more substantial drop toward the bottom triangle boundary cannot be ruled out. So keep an eye on the blue MD MA, if it supports price on a closing basis, the multi-week high still lies ahead of us; if it fails to act as support and rolls over, it will provide resistance into the MW low.

The hourly chart shows price making a 24Hr high before yesterday's NY close and trading mostly sideways overnight before breaking below daily pivot support and dropping down to the MD MA. As mentioned above, this is behavior indicative of being on the downside of the multi-day cycle. We are overdue for a 24Hr low, and the MD MA would be a logical place for price to find support for this low. When the low is in, price will get above the gold session MA and turn it upward as price searches for its 24Hr high projected for late afternoon. The keys here will be the ability of the MD MA to support price for the current 24Hr low, and the interaction of price with the 24Hr MA and daily pivot as price searches for its subsequent 24Hr high. Should price find resistance at the 2098 area (pivot and MA), it would indicate that price is still on the downside of the MD cycle. The next MD low is projected for 4/20.