Monday, April 27, 2015

Monday 4/27/2015 New all-time highs, so what's next? New all-time highs.

The monthly chart shows price trading above the monthly pivot and pink MM MA and making a higher low and higher high than the prior candle. Most importantly, price was finally able to take out February's high, easing concerns that the multi-year cycle had already rolled over. The MY cycle high is projected for this month, so those concerns could creep back into the analysis again soon.  It is always important to remember that the projections are only expectations based on an average of recent cycle lengths.  While actual highs and lows often land exactly on projection, they often land earlier or later than projected (as we have seen frequently during the recent triangle pattern trading).  Now that price has exited the triangle, I would expect to see cycle lengths return to their norms and higher timeframe support and resistance areas to regain their importance.  Thus, I expect the pink MM MA and the monthly pivot to support price until the multi-year cycle top is in.  This behavior will be far more important than any time projection.



The weekly chart shows price last week having made a higher low and higher high versus the prior week and closing above the upper boundary of the triangle pattern. I will leave the triangle boundary lines on the weekly chart just to see if they provide support for the next pullback. Price early in this week's candle has opened above the daily pivot and made a higher high, behavior associated with being on the upside of the multi-month cycle. The MM high is not projected until mid-June.



The daily chart shows price last week finding support early in the week on the blue MD MA before moving up at the end of the week to new all-time highs. The MD MA has now turned upward, following price as it searches for its next MW high, which is projected for 5/6/15.  Until that high is found, price should continue to find support on the MD MA and/or weekly pivot.



The hourly chart shows price having made what appears to be a 24Hr low at 4:00am this morning on daily pivot support, behavior associated with being on the upside of the multi-day cycle. The MD high is well overdue; in fact, the MD low is projected for early afternoon today, near the 1:00pm projection for the next 24Hr high. It is reasonable to expect that the next 24Hr high will also be a multi-day high. If it is, price will break white 24Hr MA support and daily pivot support before moving down to test the weekly pivot and/or blue MD MA in the 2101 area.



  

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