Tuesday 4/7/2015

The daily chart shows price yesterday opening below the daily pivot but making a higher low and higher high versus the prior candlestick, closing above the weekly and monthly pivots in the process. While this is normally bullish behavior, the fact is that price has whipsawed above and below these levels for several weeks now as it languishes in a triangle pattern. Price thus far today has opened above the daily pivot and is testing the underside of the MM MA that halted last week's advance. I will place no special meaning on price closing above this MA, as price ignored it frequently while the triangle pattern developed. A move to new highs is the only bullish thing price can do at this point, and a break below the March lows is the only bearish thing it can do. We are just about at the halfway point from each of these things, and each would require only a two-day move. Meanwhile, the status of the MW low is unclear with a possible low made the late March or perhaps the one-tick higher double bottom of April 1st or perhaps not yet seen. The MW high is projected for next Monday.

The hourly chart shows price yesterday breaking above the daily pivot at the NY open and soaring over 30 points until making its 24Hr high early afternoon. Price appears to have made a 24Hr low overnight well above the daily pivot or 24Hr MA, normally very bullish behavior. I have marked the Good Friday low as a multi-day low, and price coming out of a 24Hr and MD low will often exhibit such bullish behavior, particularly when price is on the upside of the MW cycle. As mentioned above, however, for the past several weeks price has been forming a triangle and does not seem to hold on to bullish or bearish behavior for long. The MD high is projected for around the close of trading tomorrow, plenty of time for price to make new highs if it is so inclined.

A 24Hr high is projected for early afternoon. Price should ride the gold session MA higher and take out yesterday's highs before this high is in. Failure to do so would indicate that yesterday's high was an early MD high, and the triangle pattern would continue.