Wednesday 9/30/2015- a likely Multi-week low was seen yesterday

The daily chart shows price yesterday forming a doji candlestick on the lower channel support line. Price today has thus far made a higher low and higher high and is currently testing the MD MA.

Yesterday was obviously a multi-day low; given that we were in the timeframe to see a multi-week low, it is very possible that yesterday was also the MW low.   If so, I would expect price to stage a nice rally over the next week as price searches for its MW high which is projected for 10/6.  The first target area for the rally is the weekly pivot at 1928.50, which will likely be a confluence area with the green MW MA in the next day or two.  There is still a slight probability that yesterday's low was not the MW low, in which case price should find resistance at the blue MD MA and resume its move down.  The strong candlestick reversal signal in the projected timeframe for a MW low is hard to ignore, however.

The hourly chart shows price yesterday making a 24Hr and MD low and then rallying to its 24Hr high in late morning.  Price then saw a higher, half-span 24Hr low which was a possibility mentioned in yesterday's commentary.  Price has since moved higher overnight, riding Session MA support on the way up to its 24Hr high which is projected for late morning.  If price is also on the upside of the MW cycle, I would expect the 24Hr high to extend in time and allow price to eclipse the MD MA; if price is still on the downside of the MW cycle, look for price to make its 24Hr high at MD MA resistance and then reverse.

Tuesday 9/29/2015

The daily chart shows price yesterday making a lower high, lower low and sharply lower close as price continued on the downside of the multi-week cycle.  Price thus far today has opened below its daily pivot and has made a lower low but is currently trading above yesterday's close.

Price seems to have found support on a bottom channel line that was drawn last Wednesday as a parallel to an upper channel line connecting two multi-week highs.  We are in the timeframe to see price make a multi-week low, and it is possible that support for this low will be found on this line.  When the low is in, price will trade above the MD MA and turn that average upward. The next MW high is projected for 10/6.

The hourly chart shows price making its 24Hr high yesterday under daily pivot and 24Hr MA well before the NY open.   It was mentioned that if the Sunday evening low was not a MD low, that price should trade down throughout the day.   Price finally made a 24Hr low in overnight trading and is currently trading above the 24Hr MA in search of its 24Hr high.

Price is currently due to find its 24Hr high, and the 24Hr MA or daily pivot will be logical places to make that high if price is still on the downside of the MD cycle.  While price could easily see another 24Hr low or two before the MD cycle would become overdue, it is important to remember that we are in the window for price to be seeing a MW low.  This higher timeframe cycle could easily see price make an early MD low, so it is possible that the overnight 24Hr low was also a MD low and MW low.  If so, I would expect the daily cycle to extend in time and price should see a strong rally to at least the blue MD MA and likely the weekly pivot at 1928.50.  An alternative scenario would be price having already seen its 24Hr high (or making its 24Hr high right at the open), and then price falling into a double bottom or a half-span higher 24Hr low before starting its rally to higher timeframe resistance.  Of course, a break below the overnight low would indicate that price is still searching for its MW low, but the odds will be even higher that the next 24Hr low will also be the MD and MW low.

Monday 9/28/2015

The monthly chart shows price in September having made a lower high and higher low versus August.   Price found resistance at the MM MA and MY MA and is also trading below its monthly pivot and the yearly pivot.  This is behavior indicative of being on the downside of the multi-year cycle, and while we are in the timeframe for a multi-year low to be seen we have not yet seen any evidence that last month's low was the MY low.

The weekly chart shows price last week making a lower high and lower low and having found resistance at the monthly pivot and MW MA.  This is behavior indicative of price being on the downside of the multi-month cycle; if price does not rally above the green MW MA by week's end and turn that average upward, it will confirm the high of two week's ago as a multi-month high. The MM high was not projected to occur until next week.

If price is on the downside of the MM cycle, a MM low is not projected until mid-November- leaving plenty of time for price to move lower.  We have seen a series of half-span shifts of the MM highs and lows, however, so we must keep an open mind that price will again make an earlier than projected MM low.

The daily chart shows price last week having made a Monday high and Thursday low, a typical scenario in a downtrend.  The blue MD MA provided resistance to price throughout the week, just as it provided support to price as it searched for its multi-week high.  We are overdue for a MW low to be seen, and while it is possible that the low came on projection last Thursday, it is equally possible that the MW low has yet to be made.  When the MD MA ceases to act as resistance and instead acts as support, we will know that price is on the upside of the MW cycle. A MW high is projected for 10/6.

The hourly chart shows price on Friday making a 24Hr high at MW MA resistance and dropping for the remainder of the day until making its 24Hr low in Sunday evening trading.  Price then found another 24Hr high overnight under daily pivot and 24Hr MA resistance, indicating that price is again on the downside of the multi-day cycle.   I have marked the Thursday low as a MD low and the Friday high as a MD high.  Unless Thursday was also a MW low, price should fall throughout the day today as we are on the downside of the daily, multi-day and multi-week cycles.  Should price instead find an early 24Hr low and take out the overnight high, it will be a strong indication that Thursday was indeed a MW low.

Friday 9/25/2015

The daily chart shows price yesterday making a lower high, lower low and lower close.  Price today has opened below its daily pivot but is currently trading higher, above the MD MA. Yesterday was the projection for the multi-week low.   It appears that it was at least a multi-day low, and remains to be seen whether it was also a multi-week low.   If it was, it would be bullish in that it would continue a pattern of higher MW lows and higher MW highs since the August multi-month low. The next MW high is not projected until 10/6, and it will be interesting to see if price can overcome MM MA which provided resistance for the last MW high.

While having the MW low made exactly on projection is nice, one must not allow a feeling of "wanting to be right" to bias their outlook on what price is actually doing.   We must remain open to the possibility that price is still on the downside of the MW cycle and that the MW low will occur next week . Until the MD MA turns upward and price sees a higher MD low made, there is no confirmation that we are on the upside of the MW cycle.

The hourly chart shows price yesterday making its 24Hr low during the noon hour and rallying into the close.  Price continued to move higher overnight until it found resistance at the green MW MA.   We are overdue to see a 24Hr high, and it is quite possible that the high was seen several bars ago under MW MA resistance.  Should price continue to trade below the gold Session MA and turn that average downward as price tests the 24Hr MA or daily pivot, we will know the 24Hr high has been seen.

Given that price has eclipsed both the MD MA and the prior 24Hr high, it is very likely that yesterday's low was a multi-day low.  We are in the timeframe to see a MD high, and the MW MA would be a likely place for that MD high to be made.   If so, we could see price trade down sharply throughout the day.   If we have not yet seen the MD high, price should find support at the 24Hr MA or daily pivot for its 24Hr low by noon and then trade higher in to the close.  Should price find support at the blue MD MA for its 24Hr low it would be even more bullish as it would support the notion that yesterday was also a multi-week low.

Thursday 9/24/2015

The daily chart shows price yesterday making a lower high and lower low and close versus Tuesday's candle.  Price today has thus far made a lower high and lower low as price continues to search for its multi-week low which is projected for today.   Should price find a higher MW low today or tomorrow it would be mildly bullish as we will be continuing a pattern of higher MW lows and higher MW highs since the August multi-month low.   A breach of the September MW low would suggest that the last week's high was also an early multi-month high and be more bearish.  Obviously, a breach of the August multi-month low would indicate that price is still on the downside of the multi-year cycle.

The hourly chart shows price making a 24Hr high against daily pivot resistance in yesterday's pre-market trading and finding support on the 24Hr MA for the remainder of the day.  Price broke that support in after-hours trading and that support has turned to resistance in overnight trading.  Much like Monday/Tuesday, it is unclear whether a 24Hr low and 24Hr have been seen overnight.  Days later it remains unclear whether the earlier case was indeed an intervening 24Hr low and high; hopefully today's situation will become more evident after today.   If the high of several bars ago was indeed a 24Hr high, it sets us up for a possible trend day down as price will be on the downside of the 24Hr cycle and MD cycle throughout the day.

Wednesday 9/23/2015

Price yesterday made a lower high and lower low, finding resistance at the MD MA and weekly pivot and falling sharply.  Price has made a lower low thus far today but is currently trading above yesterday's close.  We are obviously on the downside of the multi-week cycle, and a MW low is projected for tomorrow.  It is important to remember that this projection carries little weight as price could easily make its MW low today or it could stretch into next week.  When price is able to trade above the MD MA and turn that average upward, we will know the MW low has been seen.

If price is able to make a higher MW low than the September low, it will be a victory for the bulls, as it would indicate that price is still on the upside of the multi-month cycle.   If we are on the downside of the multi-month cycle, price should fall sharply into its MW low, and that low would be more likely to extend in time rather than come before projection.

The hourly chart shows price falling sharply throughout the day yesterday before making its 24Hr low in overnight trading.    Price has since rallied above the 24Hr MA but has found resistance at the daily pivot in pre-market trading.  The area of the daily pivot is also the area that provided support for three 24Hr lows recently, and it was mentioned in yesterday's commentary that we now need to watch this area for possible resistance.  We are overdue for a 24Hr high to be seen, and if we are still on the downside of the multi-day cycle the daily pivot resistance should hold.  Until price can break below the gold Session MA, however, we cannot assume that the 24Hr high has been seen.

We are seemingly overdue to see a multi-day low.  As mentioned yesterday, it is possible that a half-span 24Hr low and high were seen on Monday morning/Tuesday morning (each marked with "?").   If so, that would mean that the Sunday evening 24Hr low was also a MD low, and we could see another 24Hr low or two made before the next MD low.  Where we are in the multi-day cycle will become apparent by the end of today's trading when we see where the 24Hr high and low were made.

Tuesday 9/22/2015

Price yesterday made a lower low, lower high but higher close versus Friday's candle, an odd scenario which, along with its reverse sibling the higher high, higher low but lower close, has been occurring with great frequency lately.   Price yesterday ran into resistance at the blue MD MA which had been providing support to price for over a week, confirming last Thursday as a multi-week high.  Price today has thus far also found resistance at the MD MA and weekly pivot and has traded sharply lower.

With price on the downside of the MW cycle, the market is in a precarious situation.   If we are on the upside of the multi-year and multi-month cycles, price should simply make a higher MW low near the 9/24 projection.   With price having found resistance for its MW high from the declining MM MA, however, it is fully possible that one or both of those higher timeframe cycles is on the decline.   This opens up the possibility of the MW low extending past the projection in time, and a retest of August lows (or deeper) in price.  There is no guarantee that this is what price will do, but as mentioned yesterday the downside risk is far greater than the upside reward.

The hourly chart shows price yesterday making a 24Hr high at MD MA and weekly pivot resistance.   Price found support late afternoon on the white 24Hr MA and green MW MA and then made a lower Session high.   Whether the drop to this support area constituted an early 24Hr low is still unknown; how soon price finds its next 24Hr low will help determine that. Should a 24Hr low be made shortly, it is likely that there was no intervening 24Hr low and high. A trend day down where the 24Hr low is not seen until near the close or later would make it more likely that an intervening 24Hr low and high did occur.  What is known is that the support area in the 1940 area which provided support for three different 24Hr lows has been breached, and we must now watch this area for future resistance.

Monday 9/21/2015

The monthly chart shows price in September thus far having made a lower high and higher low than the August bar.  Price is below the white MY MA and the declining pink MM MA, behavior associated with being on the downside of the multi-year cycle.  Price has thus far found support on the yearly pivot (dashed white line); we are in the time window to see a multi-year low, and the yearly pivot is a logical place for price to find support for this low.

After an extremely right-translated cycle high, price normally makes a higher high on the next upturn of the cycle.  In the case of the multi-year cycle, this can be seen on the monthly chart with the prior two MY cycles.  While I rarely mention technical indicators in this blog (and rarely show them), it is important to notice the yellow RSI at the bottom of the chart remained above the 50 level for each of these multi-year lows.  Should price make its MY low (or already have made its MY low) on yearly pivot support, in an extremely right-translated cycle, with the RSI remaining above 50, the expectation would be for price to make a new high in its next MY cycle upswing. Should price continue to languish for several more weeks and take the RSI below 50 and price below its yearly pivot on a month-close basis, it is more likely that the next MY high will be a lower high.

The weekly chart shows price last week making a higher low and higher high versus the prior week's candle, but closing little-changed for the week.  Price this week has opened below its weekly pivot but has thus far continued to find support on the green MW MA, behavior indicative of price being on the upside of the multi-month cycle.  A MM high is projected for the week of 10/15, but it is possible that higher timeframe resistance in the form of the MM MA, MY MA and monthly pivot could see this MM high put in early.  Until price trades below the MW MA and turns that average downward, however, we must assume that price remains on the upside of the MM cycle.

The daily chart shows price last week making a Thursday high against MM MA resistance and falling sharply on Friday down to MW MA support.  Price thus far in today's candle has again found support on the MW MA and is currently testing MD MA, weekly pivot and monthly pivot resistance from below.

Thursday was certainly a multi-day high, but it remains uncertain whether it was also a multi-week high.  The MW high is projected for today but could have been seen on Thursday or could extend in time to later this week; behavior will tell us when the high is in, not projections.    If price continues to trade below the MD MA and that average turns downward (as it is close to doing), it will confirm Thursday as a MW high and leave price vulnerable for the remainder of the week as the MW low is projected for Thursday.

The hourly chart shows price making its 24Hr high and multi-day high on Thursday on the news-induced spike. Price then traded down sharply until finding its 24Hr low in Sunday evening trading.   It is possible that an intervening 24Hr high and low were seen between the obvious high and low, but this is mostly irrelevant to the analysis.  We are due (or overdue) to see a 24Hr high, and the MD MA and weekly pivot could easily provide resistance to put in this high. If so, the gold Session MA which has supported price out if its Sunday evening low will cease to provide support and will turn downward as price begins searching for its 24Hr low.

We are in the timeframe for price to make a MD low, and it is possible that the Sunday evening 24Hr low was also a MD low.   Note that this low is at the same general level where price found support for two other 24Hr lows on 9/14 and 9/15, the latter of which was also a MD low. Because this level has obvious importance as support to price, a break below this area in the future would have bearish implications.  

Friday 9/18/2015 - Lots of Yellen Over Nothing

Price yesterday made a higher low and higher high versus Wednesday's candle but failed at MM MA resistance and closed lower. Price today has opened below the daily pivot and is currently trading below the MD MA.

I mentioned in yesterday's blog that I was questioning whether last week's high was indeed an early MW high and was open to the idea that we should instead be looking for a projected Monday MW high; it was also mentioned that the MM MA could provide resistance for the MW high.   It is possible that yesterday was merely a multi-day high, and price is still on the upside of the multi-week cycle; if so, price should recover the MD MA and use it as soft support as it has done since early last week.   A close below the MD MA and a turn of that average downward would confirm yesterday as a MW high.  

A MW low is projected for next Wednesday, and where and when that low actually is made will provide a good deal of information about where the market is in its MM and MY cycles.  We could see a shallow pullback that finds support at the green MW MA/weekly pivot confluence for an early MW low, or we could see a severe decline that extends in time and retests the August lows or makes new lows.  This is a high-risk area for the market right now with far greater downside risk than upside reward.

The hourly chart shows price yesterday with a Fed-induced spike to a 24Hr high followed by a complete retracement moments later.  Price traded mostly sideways overnight between Session MA support and 24Hr MA resistance until Session MA support broke early this morning and price once again declined sharply.  It is possible that the overnight trading saw an early 24Hr high and low put in, which would confirm yesterday as a multi-day high, but the severity of the decline makes the confirmation moot - we are certainly on the downside of the MD cycle.

Price is searching for its 24Hr low, and the monthly pivot/MW confluence area at 1959 should provide support for that low to be seen. We are also in the time window for a multi-day low to be seen, and that confluence area should be able to provide support for that low as well.  Below that region, the weekly pivot remains as support (and price has found support there twice already this week), but after today's close we will be looking at a new weekly pivot (currently projected for approx. 1968).  Failure of these higher-timeframe MA/pivots to provide support for the MD cycle low would add evidence that supports a bearish case for the market.

Thursday 9/17/2015

Price yesterday made a higher low and higher high versus Tuesday's candle and also closed above the prior multi-week high.  Please note that I have removed the official designation of 9/9 as a MW high and replaced it with a "?" - while it technically met the definition of a MW high in that a lower MD high followed, it requires calling the next day, which had a higher close than the MW high, the MW low.   In any case, it is obvious that price is on the upside of the MW cycle; the difference lies in the projection for the next MW high to be found, where my current leaning calls for a MW high due on Monday.  Of course, the "historic" Fed decision due today could have a great impact on the timing of this MW high.  The declining MM MA should act as resistance for the MW high; failure to do so would be a bullish sign for stocks.

The hourly chart shows price making a 24Hr low above daily pivot and 24Hr MA support, very bullish behavior indicative of price being on the upside of the MD and MW cycles.  Price made its 24Hr high one bar after the close (and one bar past projection) and has corrected mostly sideways overnight as price attempts to find its 24Hr low.  We are overdue for the 24Hr low to be seen, and the 24Hr MA or daily pivot should provide support for this low if price is still on the upside of the multi-day cycle.  We are in the window to be seeing a MD high, however, and it is possible that either yesterday's high or the next 24Hr high will also be a MD high.  If yesterday was also the MD high, price should fail to find support at the 24Hr MA/daily pivot and price should work its way down toward the rising blue MD MA in search of its multi-day low.

Wednesday 9/16/2015

From yesterday: " I expect very little volatility today as there is little reason to assume that price will break above monthly pivot resistance or below weekly pivot resistance today..."   

Calls really don't get much worse than that one.  After typing it I knew that I was almost guaranteeing a big move since the market almost always makes my proclamations look foolish.  I think I decided to leave it in as a challenge to the market; well, challenge accepted.   

The lone reader of this blog noted "you mentioned that price was behaving as if it were on the upside of the multi-week cycle, and you believed that the 24Hr low may have been put in early on higher timeframe support.  Why didn't you assume that since we were due for a multi-day low to be found that this higher timeframe support would also provide support for the MD low?  Wouldn't this mean that price would be on the upside of the daily cycle, MD cycle, and MW cycle?  Shouldn't we have expected this trend day up?"  

Damn fine point, reader.  The answer to both of your questions are "yes", but you already knew that.

Due to popular demand from the readers of this blog (fortunately "one" constituted a quorum), I am taking a break from the blog today for appointments and errands.  But unfortunately, dear reader, I'll be back posting before the market opens tomorrow.

Tuesday 9/15/2015

The daily chart shows price yesterday making a higher high and higher low but lower close versus Friday.  Price thus far today has made a lower low and lower high but is currently trading higher versus yesterday's close.   If that is starting to sound familiar, it is because we are seeing it quite often as price trades in a narrower and narrower range.

I have marked last Wednesday as a multi-week high for reasons discussed below in the hourly commentary.  With price on the downside of the multi-week cycle, price should have dropped below the blue MD MA and turned that average downward.  Price instead has found frequent support at the MD MA, something that happens when we are on the upside of the MW cycle.   It is possible that the green MW MA which is in close proximity to the MD MA is what is providing the support, which would indicate that price is on the upside of the multi-month cycle.   The lower MW high would argue that price is on the downside of the multi-month cycle, however, so that argument doesn't carry much weight.  The fact is that price is forming a flag/triangle pattern, and those patterns always make it difficult to determine where price is in the various cycles.   I can only assume that price's behavior after the Fed's decision on interest rates will provide more answers.

The hourly chart shows price yesterday making its 24Hr low early afternoon on weekly pivot support.  Price in overnight trading made a lower 24Hr high against daily pivot resistance - classic behavior of price on the downside of the multi-day cycle.   I have marked the Sunday evening high as a MD high, and since this is a lower MD high than last Wednesday's MD high, it also means that last Wednesday was a multi-week high.

A 24Hr low is not projected until early afternoon, but it is possible that price has made an early 24Hr low on weekly pivot/MW MA support.    I expect very little volatility today as there is little reason to assume that price will break above monthly pivot resistance or below weekly pivot resistance today with everyone so absorbed with tomorrow's Fed  announcement.

Monday 9/14/2015

The monthly chart shows price thus far in September having made a lower high and higher low versus August's large bearish candle. Price is currently trading under the monthly pivot, the MY MA and the declining MM MA but appears to have found support at the yearly pivot.

As mentioned in prior Monday posts, it is obvious that price is on the downside of the multi-year cycle and price is searching for support that will enable it to put in its multi-year low. It is possible that the MY MA and/or the yearly pivot will provide support for that low (or that it already has and the low was seen last month). When the low has been seen, price will first trade above the monthly pivot, then above the MM MA and eventually turn that average upward. Until that happens, the multi-year low could very well still be in front of us.

The weekly chart shows price last week making a higher low, higher high and higher low versus the prior week. Price early in this week's candle has opened above the weekly pivot and has thus far made an "inside" candle. The action of the last two bars has turned the green MW MA upward; while that could easily change by week's end if price sells off, I have marked the 8/28 week's low as an early multi-month low. This half-shift of the MM low was confirmed by the higher MW low (which can be seen on the daily chart).

A multi-month high is not projected until mid-October, but half-span cycle shifts often occur in pairs, so it will be interesting to see if price makes an early MM high and turns back down. An early MM high would be bearish and increase the odds that price is just consolidating after the sharp drop. Should the MM high come at projection or later, it would be more bullish, but still not be definitive evidence that the MY low is behind us. Thus far, the monthly pivot continues to provide resistance, indicating price is likely still on the downside of the MY cycle.

The daily chart shows price last week making a Wednesday high; regular readers of this blog will know that a Wednesday high (or low) will often mark a multi-week high (or low). A MW high is not projected until next Monday, but we have already seen a half-shift of the MW low and as mentioned above they often come in pairs. Thus far, however, the MD MA continues to provide support for price, indicating that price is still on the upside of the MW cycle. When the MW high is in, price sill fall below the MD MA and turn that average downward.

The hourly chart shows price on Friday making its 24Hr low before the NY open and then trading through MW MA resistance in the afternoon en route to its 24Hr high. That high was seen early in Sunday evening trading and price has drifted back down to the white 24Hr MA just before the NY open this morning. We are overdue to see a 24Hr low, and it is possible that the double-bottom of Session lows could mark that low. We are also overdue to see a MD high, however, and it is possible that the prior 24Hr high was also a MD high. If so, price may have to probe lower before finding support for its 24Hr low. An alternative is that the 24Hr low is found here, but price has a muted rise into a lower 24Hr high before dropping harder into its MD low.

Friday 9/11/2015

The daily chart shows price yesterday making a lower high, lower low, but higher close versus Wednesday's candle, with price again finding soft support on the weekly pivot and MD MA. Price thus far today has had an inside day and is trading little-changed from yesterday's close.

The consolidation pattern continues to unfold in the market, once again making cycle peaks and troughs difficult to discern as price whipsaws through moving averages and pivots. As mentioned yesterday, there are many possible scenarios that would explain why price is behaving as it is -some of these scenarios are bullish but more are bearish. Thus, unless price offers more proof to one of the bullish scenarios, it makes no sense to be long as this pattern unfolds.

The hourly chart shows price yesterday making an early 24Hr low near the weekly pivot, a possibility that was mentioned in yesterday's commentary.  Price rebounded to make what appears to have been an extremely early 24Hr high yesterday afternoon, followed by a lower Session high in overnight trading.  We are in the timeframe to see a 24Hr low being made, and price appears to be finding support at the 1940 area, just above the weekly pivot.  Should price trade above the Session MA and turn that average upward, it would indicate that the 24Hr low has been seen and price should trade higher for the day.  Given that the consolidation pattern which has affected the longer timeframe cycles appears to now be impacting the 24Hr cycle as well, I am more hesitant than normal to daytrade on the upside of this 24Hr cycle.

Thursday 9/10/2015

The daily chart shows price yesterday making a higher high and high low but lower close versus Tuesday's candle after finding resistance at the monthly pivot.  Price today has thus far made a lower high and lower low.

Where price is in the multi-week cycle is difficult to discern as price continues to churn above and below the MD MA and weekly pivot; while it was evident price had been on the upside of the MW cycle yesterday, it is possible that yesterday saw yet another early MW high and that price is now on the downside of the MW cycle.  If so, with two sets of early MW highs and lows behind us, perhaps price is ready for another leg down as price searches for its multi-month low projected for late September/early October.  Or price could make yet another early MW low as price continues its consolidation.  We can only get a good idea of where price is going when we can see the path it is taking, and right now price is doing an excellent job of covering its tracks.  Of the many possibilities however, more are bearish so the odds argue against being bullish.

The hourly chart shows price yesterday having made a 24Hr high before the NY open, confirmed by a lower Session high just after the open, a scenario discussed in yesterday's pre-open blog.  Price fell throughout the remainder of the day until price found support for its 24Hr low on the weekly pivot.  I had  mentioned yesterday that I expected price to reach the MD MA/MW MA/weekly pivot confluence within the next day or two, as I believed that yesterday's 24Hr high would also be a multi-day high.  The lower 24Hr high seen this morning confirms yesterday as a multi-day high.

A 24Hr low is not projected until after the close, and the next 24Hr low will likely also be a MD low.  While price being on the downside of the 24Hr and MD cycles would normally mean price should make lower highs and lower lows throughout the day, I am open to the possibility of the weekly pivot providing soft support for an early 24Hr low and a continuation of the price consolidation.  Should price have a trend day down, it may argue that price is leaving its consolidation and that price will continue lower into the projected late September/early October multi-month low.

Wednesday 9/9/2015

The daily chart shows price yesterday opening below the weekly pivot and MD MA but closing well above both and eclipsing the MW MA as well.  Price today has thus far made a higher high and is now trading above the monthly pivot.  This strong price move has turned the MD MA upward, which helps confirm that price saw yet another extremely early multi-week low last week and that price is on the upside of the MW cycle.

The higher MW low also means that the late August low was an early multi-month low, which has bullish implications.  It remains to be seen, however, whether price sees another early shift of its MW high, and whether price sees a similar half-span shift of its MM high. This would all take place in the formation of a triangle pattern on the charts, something we've seen quite a bit of lately.   In short, price action since the August low has been bullish, but the bulls are not out of the woods yet.

The hourly chart shows price yesterday making a 24Hr high before the NY open and making its 24Hr low five hours later above 24Hr MA support, a very bullish development that hints at the strength of the higher timeframe cycles (MD, MW and MM) supporting price.   We are slightly overdue for a 24Hr high, and it is possible that the high was seen several bars ago; if not, it will likely occur during the next Session high due near the NY open.  When the high is in, price will trade below the gold Session MA and turn that average downward as price searches for its 24Hr low (projected for late morning).

We are in the timeframe for price to see a multi-day high, so the odds are in favor of the next 24Hr high also being a MD high.  With a 24Hr low due so soon, price may need another 24Hr cycle before testing support at the MD MA/MW MA/weekly pivot confluence area, but I expect that area to be tested in the next few days before price makes its next multi-day low.

Tuesday 9/8/2015

The daily chart shows price yesterday making a lower high and higher low but higher close versus Friday's candle, with price still finding resistance at the MD MA and weekly pivot.  Price thus far today has managed to eclipse these resistance levels and is currently testing the green MW MA from below.

The multi-week low is not projected until next Tuesday, so price should have fallen sharply out of last Thursday's multi-day high.   The fact that price instead has moved sideways could mean that price has already seen another early multi-week low.   This would lend credence to the scenario espoused in this blog that price could be entering a triangle consolidation pattern. While there could very well still be a bearish conclusion to this consolidation, it is generally hard to argue that sideways movement is not more bullish than downward movement (I wouldn't hesitate to argue the point, however, and may very well do so some other day).

The hourly chart shows price yesterday making its 24Hr high at MD MA resistance and drifting mostly sideways until finding its 24Hr low early afternoon on 24Hr MA support.  This is classic behavior of price being on the upside of the multi-day cycle, and Friday's low has been marked as a MD low.  This was also a higher MD low than the 9/1 MD low, indicating that 9/1 could well have been yet another early MW low, the implications of which were discussed above.

We are in the timeframe to see a 24Hr high; it is possible that the high was seen several bars ago, or price could just be correcting into its Session low where it will find support on the Session MA and turn higher.  Should the gold Session MA fail to provide support and start to turn lower, followed by price making a lower Session high near noon, it would confirm the 24Hr high is in.   A 24Hr low is projected for early afternoon, and we will see if the MD MA and/or MW MA can now provide support for price.

Monday 9/7/2015 - Labor Day

The monthly chart shows price in September having opened below its monthly pivot and currently trading below the MM MA, MY MA, and yearly pivot as well; this is behavior indicative of price being on the downside of the multi-year cycle. We are actually overdue for a multi-year low to be seen; as mentioned in past weeks, the low could have already been seen or a late September/early October low would also make sense given the projection for the next multi-month low as discussed below.

The yearly pivot or MY MA would be logical places for price to find support for its MY low; they provided soft support for last month's candle closing, and it remains to be seen if they will provide soft support by the close of this month. While I never discuss any cycle larger than the multi-year cycle, the higher MY highs/higher MY lows we have witnessed since 2009 are indicative of being on the upside of an even larger cycle.  Should price fail to find support at the yearly pivot or MY MA for the MY low, it could indicate that the larger cycle has rolled over and we will start to see a period of lower MY highs and lower MY lows.   If price does find soft support at these levels, it would be reasonable to expect new highs when the MY cycle turns upward.

The weekly chart shows price last week making a lower high and higher low but lower close, closing below all higher-timeframe pivots and MAs. Price early in this week's candle has opened below its weekly pivot and thus far had another "inside" day. Price has obviously been on the downside of the multi-month cycle, and a MM low is projected for the week of October 2nd.   It is possible, as discussed numerous times recently, that a half-span MM low was already seen. There is no way of knowing until price tells us by either making new lows or trading above the green MW MA and turning that average upward.

The daily chart shows price last week making a rare Monday high/Tuesday low, a pattern I may have seen once before if ever. No known significance to this, just interesting to me.  Price today opened below its daily pivot but is currently trading higher, testing weekly pivot and MD MA resistance.

With the MD MA pointing downward and a lower multi-day high having been seen on Thursday, the 8/28 high has been confirmed as a multi-week high. This was a half-span shift of the MW high, just as we had seen a half-span shift of the MW low several days earlier. Half-span shifts in cycles usually occur when a larger cycle is turning out of its trough or peak and conflicting with one or more shorter cycles.  They also frequently lead to the formation of triangle patterns.  With a MW low not projected until next Tuesday, price should fall sharply this week. Failure to do so could very well indicate that a triangle consolidation pattern is developing.

The hourly chart shows price making its multi-day high at monthly pivot resistance and falling until it found its 24Hr low before the NY close on Friday. Price found resistance for its next 24Hr high under MD MA resistance but has thus far corrected mostly sideways on the downside of the 24Hr cycle. The 24Hr low is projected for 3pm EST, and it remains to be seen if the white 24Hr MA and/or daily pivot will provide support for this low.  If so, it would mean that Friday's low was also a MD low and lend credence to the scenario of a developing triangle pattern.

Friday 9/4/2015

Price yesterday made a higher low and and higher high versus Wednesday's candle, but closed slightly lower after testing monthly pivot resistance.  Price today opened below the daily pivot and thus far made a lower high and lower low.  The action of the past few days has started to turn the MD MA downward, behavior that hints at last Friday being an early multi-week high (more on this below).

The hourly chart shows price yesterday making its 24Hr high at monthly pivot resistance and falling throughout the remainder of the day and in overnight trading back below the weekly pivot. We are overdue for a 24Hr low to be seen, and a 24Hr high is projected for noon.   A close above the gold Session MA and an upturn in that average will be a good indication that the 24Hr low has finally been seen and that price is on the upside of the 24Hr cycle.  

Unless today's 24Hr high is able to eclipse yesterday's high, however, it will mean that yesterday was also a multi-day high. A multi-day high that was lower than the prior MD high means that price has been on the downside of the multi-week cycle. This would confirm that last Friday was a half-span MW high, which would take much of the bullishness out of the prior half-span MW low;  it would indicate that price is either ready to take another leg down or that price is entering a triangle consolidation period.

Thursday 9/3/2015

Yesterday saw price make a higher low and lower high versus Tuesday - an "inside" day- but with a higher close that saw price regain the weekly pivot.  Price thus far today has opened above the daily pivot and eclipsed yesterday's high.

As mentioned yesterday, price was on the upside of the multi-day cycle after making a higher multi-day low on Tuesday which confirmed the prior Monday's low as a multi-week low.   The question now is whether last Friday's high was an early multi-week high.   Should price quickly eclipse Friday's high than it is likely that the early week pullback was merely the downturn of the multi-day cycle.  Should price instead make a lower multi-day high, it will confirm last Friday as a MW high and indicate that the longer-term cycles are half-shifting, possibly meaning that price is entering yet another triangle pattern.

The hourly chart shows price yesterday making a 24Hr low just below the daily pivot/24Hr MA confluence area, confirming Tuesday's low as a multi-day low. Price then rallied above the weekly pivot, found frequent resistance at the MD MA, and has now broken above to test the MW MA/monthly pivot confluence area.

We are overdue for a 24Hr high to be seen, and the 24Hr low is projected for late morning.  We are also overdue for a multi-day high to be seen, making it likely that the next 24Hr high will also be a MD high.  The MW MA/monthly pivot confluence area is a logical place for each of these highs to be seen. When the gold Session MA stops providing support to price, we will know that the 24Hr high is in and price should test the white 24Hr MA or daily pivot in search of its 24Hr low.  If those areas do not provide support for the low, we will know the MD high is also in. 

 

Wednesday 9/2/2015

The daily chart shows price yesterday making a lower high and lower low, closing back below the MD MA and weekly pivot. Price today has opened below the daily pivot but is currently trading above it and has tested the weekly pivot from below.

It is possible that yesterday saw a multi-day low being made; if so, it was a higher MD low than last Monday, confirming last Monday as a multi-week low. While this would not be entirely bullish, as it was still a lower MW low than the prior one, it is somewhat bullish in that it was a half-span shift of the MW low; half-span shifts of cycles usually imply that a larger timeframe cycle has turned. If the larger multi-month cycle has turned upward, then that cycle also saw a half-span shift, as the MM low was not projected until early October. Following the logic, if the MM cycle has seen a half-span shift, it implies that the multi-year cycle has turned upward. 

This is all logical and quite possible, but there are still too many "ifs" and implications involved to turn bullish just yet. If price is on the downside of the MM cycle, the green MW MA should provide resistance for any MW high; should price eclipse this MA, the bullish argument would start to look stronger.

The hourly chart shows price attempting to rally at yesterday's NY open but finding resistance at the weekly pivot and then falling throughout the remainder of the day. Price rallied in overnight trading to find its overdue 24Hr high, again at weekly pivot resistance. While we should be probing lower in search of the 24Hr low (projected for near the close), price has instead found solid support at the white 24Hr MA/daily pivot confluence area.

If this support is able to hold and force an early 24Hr low, it would indicate that yesterday was a multi-day low. While this would be somewhat bullish for the reasons mentioned above, bulls would still need to do much work before the next MD high is seen. Failure to make a higher MD high would mean that Friday saw a half-span shift of the MW high, just as it saw a half-span shift of the MW low. This usually indicates a triangle pattern is forming, and as triangles are usually continuation patterns, it could mean price is just consolidating before the next leg down. Of course, if 24Hr MA/daily pivot support fails to hold and price drops hard into its 24Hr low, then all of this is moot.

Tuesday 9/1/2015

The daily chart shows price yesterday making a lower high and lower low, closing below the daily pivot. Price today has opened below the daily pivot (and new monthly pivot) and is currently trading down sharply below the MD MA and weekly pivot.

While the volatility has increased in the market, clarity has not.   It is still unclear whether last Monday's low was a multi-week low; the upturn of the blue MD MA is an indication that we have been on the upside of the MW cycle, but thus far there has been no higher multi-day low to confirm this.  With price currently on the downside of the MD cycle, we will see whether price can make a higher MD low over the next day or two.   It remains a possibility that last week's bounce was merely the upside of the MD cycle and we are still searching for the multi-week low which is projected for Wednesday.

The hourly chart shows price over the past three days making 24Hr highs at a similar level while finding support in the area of the new monthly pivot.  Price after the NY close finally broke through the bottom of this topping pattern and is currently trading below the MD MA and weekly pivot.  Price is overdue to see a 24Hr low, and a 24Hr high is projected for noon.  We are also in the timeframe to see a multi-day low made, and as mentioned above it will be interesting to see if price can make a higher multi-day low and confirm last Monday as a MW low.

When price is able to trade above the gold Session MA and turn that average upward, we will know that the 24Hr low has been seen.  If we are still on the downside of the MD cycle, resistance for the next 24Hr high would likely come at the weekly pivot or the white 24Hr MA/blue MD MA confluence are, but could come as high as the daily pivot.  A move above yesterday's high would indicate that we are on the upside of the MD cycle, and by virtue of the higher MD low we would also be on the upside of the MW cycle.