Tuesday 6/30/2015

The daily chart shows price yesterday gapping down below the monthly pivot and closing below the June 9th multi-week low. Price thus far today has made a higher low and lower high and is currently trading above its daily pivot. With price below all higher-timeframe support pivots and MAs and the MD MA in a sharp decline, it is obvious that we are on the downside of the multi-week and multi-month cycles. The multi-week low is projected for tomorrow and the multi-month low is overdue, so a turn should be expected any day.  Given this is the last trading day of the month, price would need to regain the MM MA on the monthly chart (not shown) near 2076 or preferably the monthly pivot at 2091.25 to erase any bearish signal on the monthly chart.  The first target is only ~10 points above, the latter a more daunting 25+ points.  Can price do it?  Certainly.  Will it? Odds are against it, but the market is capable of anything.

The hourly chart shows price yesterday making a 24Hr high at the declining 24Hr MA and then declining the remainder of the day to make its 24Hr low just before the close. Price has since drifted up and is currently trading at the daily pivot. A 24Hr high is due shortly after the NY open, but if we are still on the downside of the MD cycle then it is possible the high was already seen two bars prior. The ability to clear the daily pivot decisively will mean that yesterday was a multi-day low and we should then visit the blue MD MA today or tomorrow.

Monday 6/29/2015

The monthly chart shows price late in this month's candle having made a lower high and higher low and trading below the monthly pivot and testing the MM MA. This is a more bearish picture than this time last week, due entirely to the overnight move in futures due to the Greek crisis. We are overdue to see a multi-year high, and the first warning sign for being on the downside of the MY cycle is price trading below monthly pivot and MM MA support. It is important to remember, however, that the candle is not yet complete and that a warning sign is merely that; note that January's candle (the yellow ellipse) similarly made a lower high and higher low versus the prior candle and closed below the monthly pivot and MM MA yet did not mean that the MY high was behind us.

The weekly chart shows price opening this week with a gap lower below the monthly and weekly pivots and the MM MA and MW MA. This action has taken out the lows from earlier this month and has the MW MA pointed downward again, indicating that we are still on the downside of the multi-month cycle. We are overdue for the MM low.

The daily chart shows price last week having made a Monday high and Friday low, the textbook pattern on downside of a MW (and MM) cycle. Price today has gapped sharply lower below all higher timeframe support and made a lower lower than the June 9 multi-week low. Price is attempting to find support on a trendline that I had drawn early this year from two MW lows when price was chopping its way into a triangle pattern. The multi-week low is projected for Wednesday.

Today's action is certainly not the most bullish scenario that could have developed, but it is not a deal-breaker for the bulls. The ideal scenario (which had appeared to be unfolding) would have seen a higher MW low put in on monthly pivot support which would have given price a short distance to new all-time highs during the move to its next MW high. We are instead looking at a lower MW low and price will need to overcome much overhead resistance on the upside of its next cycle if new highs are to be seen. Should the MW low not be found here, but be made much lower, the task will be even more daunting. Just as with the earlier June MW low, the process will start with price regaining the blue MD MA and turning that average upward as price seeks out the next MW high.

The hourly chart shows price on Friday making a 24Hr high under MW MA resistance before gapping sharply lower to its 24Hr low when trading reopened after the weekend. Price is overdue to see a 24Hr high, and a Session high is projected for just after the NY open. If this is a lower Session high than the 5:00am high, it will mean that the 5:00am Session high was also a 24Hr high, and price should then fall below the Session MA and retest this morning's lows. A higher Session high just after the open will likely lead to the eventual 24Hr high, but the ability to trade above the white 24Hr MA would be an indication that the overnight 24Hr low was possibly also a multi-day low.  

Friday 6/26/2015

The daily chart shows price yesterday making a lower high and lower low, closing below the MM MA and at weekly pivot support. Price thus far today has made a lower low and lower high and tested the monthly pivot. The action of the last two days has turned the blue MD MA downward and confirmed that we are on the downside of the multi-week cycle. A MW low is projected for next Wednesday, but it is possible that higher timeframe support such as the MW MA, weekly pivot or monthly pivot could see this low put in earlier. The fact that all three of these areas are concentrated in the 2091-2093 area should mean an even greater likelihood of price finding support for a turn of the MW cycle. When the MW low is seen, price should then rally back above the blue MD MA and turn that average back upward. It is then my expectation that price will reach new all-time highs in July.

The hourly chart shows price yesterday making its 24Hr high under the blue MD MA and having a trend day down as predicted yesterday. Price made its 24Hr low overnight at the monthly pivot and has rallied up to the green MW MA. We are in the timeframe for price to see its 24Hr high, and the MW MA would be a logical place for this to occur. 

With a 24Hr low projected for well after the close, we could be looking at another trend down day if we are still on the downside of the MD cycle. It is possible, however, that yesterday's 24Hr low was also a multi-day low. If so, I would expect price to either move sideways all day and eventually find a higher 24Hr low; there is also the possibility that price will make a half-span 24Hr low late morning then move higher throughout the day. The key will be to watch the gold Session MA (a 6 period moving average of median price) - should price trade below it and flatten the average out, it will indicate that the 24Hr high is in. If price is then able to get back above the Session MA and turn it back upward we will know that an early 24Hr low was seen and price should rally until the end of the day.

Thursday 6/25/2015

The daily chart shows price yesterday making a lower high and lower low and closing below the MD MA. Price today has opened below the daily pivot and has tested the MD MA from below. This is behavior of price on the downside of the multi-day cycle. The action of the last two days has started to turn the MD MA downward; should price not recover today or tomorrow to keep that MD MA from rolling over, it will mean that price is on the downside of the multi-week cycle as well. If so, a MW low is projected for July 1st, but support from the MM MA or the confluence area of the MW MA, weekly pivot and monthly pivot could see the MW low put in earlier.

The hourly chart shows price yesterday finding resistance at the daily pivot and white 24Hr MA and falling through the blue MD MA. Price made its 24Hr low just after the close and worked higher overnight before finding resistance at the MD MA. With price currently trading below the daily pivot and 24Hr MA again, it appears that the overnight trip to the MD MA was a 24Hr high. Both the 24Hr low and multi-day low are projected for just after the close today, meaning today could see a bearish trend day. If so, I expect price to test the green MW MA or the weekly/monthly pivot area around 2091-2093.

Wednesday 6/24/2015

The daily chart shows price yesterday making an "inside" candle at the upper range of the prior day's candle. Price today has thus far made a lower high and lower low versus Tuesday, trading below the daily pivot and testing the MD MA. Today's action is indicative of price being on the downside of the multi-day cycle. Since we are overdue for a multi-week high, we must also be wary that Monday's high was a multi-week high as well as a multi-day high. If so, price will trade below the MD MA and turn that average downward as price looks for support for its MW low (projected for July 1st); the pink MM MA or the confluence area of the MW MA and weekly and monthly pivots are logical areas for the MW low to be made. If Tuesday was not a MW high, price will find support here at the MD MA and have one or more multi-day cycles before finding its MW high. As discussed in yesterday's blog post, new all-time highs are expected for this market, either in the current multi-week cycle or the next. Failure to achieve this opens the door for a bearish scenario which will be discussed if warranted by price action.

The hourly chart shows price making numerous 24Hr highs in the same 2118-2120 area. Price has finally broken 24Hr MA/daily pivot support and tested the blue MD MA a few bars ago. This area was mentioned yesterday and is the normal testing area for price on the downside of the multi-day cycle. Should price also be on the downside of the MW cycle, price will break below the MD MA and probe lower to the support areas mentioned above.

The 24Hr cycles have seen several abnormally short lengths the past few days. If we were to use the average of the past five cycle lows, the 24Hr low was projected for a couple of bars ago, when price tested the MD MA. A normal cycle length would have the 24Hr low being made in the early afternoon. Watch the gold Session MA for indications of whether the 24Hr low has been made; if it acts as resistance for price as it has done the last several bars, it indicates that price is still on the downside of the 24Hr cycle. A break above the Session MA and a turning of that average upward will indicate that the 24Hr low is behind us and we are on the upside of the 24Hr cycle.

Tuesday 6/23/2015

The daily chart shows price on the upside of the multi-week cycle, carrying the blue MD MA upward and using it as occasional support. We are overdue for the multi-week high to be seen, but that would be expected if we are also coming out of a multi-month low, and it is a distinct possibility that the June low was a MM low. The green MW MA is just starting to turn upward, indicating that a MM low is behind us and we are on the upside of the MM cycle. If so, price should reach new all-time highs within weeks if not days; it is possible that this MW high will fail to eclipse the May MW high, then price will make a higher MW low (projected for July 1st) before making new highs with the next MW cycle.

The hourly chart shows price yesterday making a 24Hr high in the early afternoon and finding support for its 24Hr low on the white 24Hr MA, classic behavior on the upside of the multi-day cycle. Another 24Hr high is not projected for several more hours, but price appears to be finding resistance at the gold Session MA, and that MA appears to be turning downward; both of these actions are indicative of price being on the downside of the 24Hr cycle, so its possible an early 24Hr high was made overnight.

The multi-day high is not projected until after the close tomorrow, but if we have seen a lower 24Hr high then it means that yesterday's 24Hr high was also a MD high. If so, price should break 24Hr MA and daily pivot support and drop down to test the blue MD MA. If the overdue MW high is also in, then price should see a steeper decline, down to the confluence area of the weekly pivot, monthly pivot and MW MA around 2091-2093.

Monday 6/22/2015

The monthly chart shows price trading above the monthly pivot and the MM MA, behavior indicative of being on the upside of the multi-year cycle. While we are overdue to see a MY high, until price trades below the monthly pivot and MM MA on a closing basis the trend remains bullish.

The weekly chart shows price last week having made a higher low and higher high, closing above the weekly and monthly pivots and the MW and MM MAs. Price this week has thus far opened above its weekly pivot and is retesting last week's high. With today's action, the green MW MA has turned up, indicating that the multi-month low is behind us and we are on the upside of the MM cycle. Should the week close with the MW MA maintaining that upward slope, I will officially mark two bars ago as the MM low. The next MM high is projected for the first week of July, so price has plenty of time to reach new all-time highs. Failure to do so in the next few weeks will be a bearish warning signal that will be discussed if the time comes

The daily chart shows price last week making a Tuesday low and Thursday high, a variant of the generic bullish ML/FH scenario discussed frequently in this blog. Price action has turned the blue MD MA upward, indicating that we are on the upside of the multi-week cycle. We are overdue for the projected MW high, and the next MW low is projected for July 1st. A lower MW high would not be overly bearish, as long as the next MW low is a higher MW low than the one earlier this month. A lower MW low would confirm that the May MW high was also a MM high, but the extent of the decline and the rolling over of the MW MA already indicated this. A higher MW low would likewise confirm that the early June MW low was also a MM low, and price would then be expected to make new all-time highs.

The hourly chart shows price appearing to have made a triple top in the 2118-2119 area. We are currently overdue for a 24Hr high as well as a multi-day high. It is possible price made its 24Hr high five bars ago; a lower Session high due near the NY open would confirm this. If so, it would be a lower 24Hr high and confirm Thursday's 24Hr high as the multi-day high. We would then expect price to test the 24Hr MA or the daily pivot area for its 24Hr low which is projected for after the NY close. If we are still on the downside of the MD cycle, those areas should give way and price should test the blue MD MA or weekly pivot.

Friday 6/19/2015

The daily chart shows price yesterday making a higher low and higher high, closing above the MM MA and monthly pivot. Yesterday's move also took out last week's high, so I am going with my preferred designation that last week's high was merely a multi-day high, not a multi-week high. Under that scenario, price is still searching for its now-overdue MW high. There is a solid possibility that last week's multi-week low was also a multi-month low, and under that scenario it would be normal for the MW high to extend out in time coming out of a MM low. The green MW MA has flattened out with the recent price action, lending support to the belief that a multi-month low has been seen. There is also the possiblity, should price rally for an extended period, that there was another muted intervening MW high and MW low, but that will be addressed if proven necessary. In either scenario, price is bullishly on the upside of the MW and likely MM cycles, which should enable new highs to be seen in the coming weeks.

The hourly chart shows price making a 24Hr low at the confluence area of the weekly pivot, MD MA and MW MA then rallying until early afternoon where it made its 24Hr high. Price has since moved sideways around the gold Session MA. It is uncertain whether a 24Hr low made during this sideways trading, but a 24Hr high is projected for early afternoon. Given that we are overdue for a multi-day high to be seen, it is quite possible that the high several bars ago that made a near double-top with yesterday's high was an early 24Hr high. If so, price should see a good-sized decline today through the daily pivot and down to the monthly pivot at the 2091 area or even lower to the MD MA/MW MA confluence near 2089.

Thursday 6/18/2015

The daily chart shows price yesterday making a higher low and higher high but slightly lower low versus Tuesday's candle. Thus far today price has opened above the daily pivot and made a higher low and lower high than yesterday. Price has been whipsawing back and forth around the MM MA and monthly pivot lately, making it difficult to determine where we are in the larger timeframe cycles. Thus far I am sticking with my preferred designation of last week being a multi-week low and this week's retest being a steep pullback of the multi-day cycle. If this is the case, price should continue to move higher until it finds its MW high (which was projected for last week). Price taking out last week's high will help confirm this, while price reversing to take out last week's MW low would indicate that last week's high (marked with a "?") was a lower MW high and that this week's rally is merely the upside of the multi-day cycle.

The hourly chart shows price yesterday trading down throughout the day before finding support for its 24Hr low on the daily pivot and rocketing up to its 24Hr high in the same bar due to volatility around the Federal Reserve decision to keep rates unchanged. Price then fell back overnight to retest yesterday's low where it found support for a half-span 24Hr low. Price is currently testing yesterday's highs on the upside of the 24Hr cycle, with a 24Hr high projected for late afternoon.

Much like the daily chart, the hourly chart shows price whipsawing around the monthly pivot and the green MW MA, making it difficult to determine where we are in the various cycles. Price does appear to be finding soft support yesterday and today on the weekly pivot, which would indicate that we are on the upside of the multi-month cycle, but until price can break to the upside and turn the MW MA upward I am hesitant to make that declaration based on two days of sideways price action. With the current trading above the daily pivot and 24Hr MA, it appears we are on the upside of the multi-day cycle; the MD high is past due, it is possible yesterday's 24Hr high or today's yet-to-be-seen 24Hr high will also be the MD high.

Wednesday 6/17/2015

The daily chart shows price yesterday making a lower low but higher high and close, closing above the blue MD MA. Today price has opened above its daily pivot and made a higher high, testing the MM MA. Note the slope of the blue MD MA; if today's candlestick closes with the MA still pointing upward. it would indicate that price is on the upside of the multi-week cycle.

Yesterday's low was one point higher than last week's MW low, leaving open the possibility that the pullback from Thursday's high was merely a very deep correction of the multi-day cycle. If price can rally above last week's high, that will be my preferred scenario. Until that happens, it is possible that last week did see a MW high and that this two day rally is merely a sharp move on the upside of the multi-day cycle.

Note also the flattened slope of the pink MM MA, which is important for two reasons. A flattened MA is an indication that the next higher timeframe cycle could be turning; in this case, the MM MA turning sideways from a prior uptrend would indicate that the multi-year cycle top could be in. The other reason it is important is that a sideways MA ceases to provide strong support or resistance to smaller timeframe cycles, leading to price whipsawing around that MA; this action was also seen around the flattened MM MA in December/January. It is important to acknowledge that the flattened MM MA at that time did not mean that the multi-year high was behind us, but price will never be on the downside of the MY cycle without the MM MA having flattened out/turned downward so it is not a sign that should be taken lightly.

The hourly chart shows price yesterday making a multi-day low before the NY open and price then rising throughout the day. This is a textbook example of a trend day up, which occurs when price is on the upside of the MD cycle and 24Hr cycle throughout the day. Price moved sideways along the green MW MA overnight before breaking higher and making what may have been an overdue 24Hr high several bars ago. Price is currently below the flattened gold Session MA, which supports the notion that we are now on the downside of the 24Hr cycle. We are also in the timeframe for the projected MD high. Where price finds support for its next MD low (projected for before Monday's NY open) will be important in determining where we are in the MW and MM cycles.

Tuesday 6/16/2015

The daily chart shows price yesterday making a lower high and lower low and closing beneath the MD, MW and MM MAs and the weekly and monthly pivots. Price today opened above the daily pivot but has thus far made a lower high and lower low. This is behavior indicative of price being on the downside of the multi-week and multi-month cycles.

We are in the timeframe (actually overdue from projection) to see a multi-month low. A multi-week low is not projected until the first week of July. While the MM cycle could easily turn and put in the MW low early, usually this happens either in a half-span shift (which would still take the MW low out to next week) or on higher timeframe support; we have no higher timeframe support left on the weekly or daily charts, leaving us only last week's low just one point away, and the May MM low as possible support areas.

The hourly chart shows price finding continual resistance at the white 24Hr MA, indicating price remains on the downside of the multi-day cycle. We are overdue for the MD low, and in fact the projection for the next MD high is for near the close today. It was mentioned yesterday that the MD cycle is capable of being muted if it is attempting to go against the direction of the higher timeframe MW and MM lows and that is possibly what is happening here.

The 24Hr low may have been made several bars ago, as price has managed to close above the gold Session MA and is currently testing the 24Hr MA and daily pivot. The 24Hr highs and lows are starting to shrink from their normal duration which usually happens during cycle turns. This could merely be the MD cycle trying to turn against the downward force of the MW and MM cycles, or it could be a conflict between the MW and MM cycles. For now, price must first attempt to make a decisive MD low, and we will know that low is in when price is able to close above 24Hr MA/daily pivot resistance and rise up to test the blue MD MA/weekly pivot confluence area near 2084.

Monday 6/15/2015

Halfway through the month, the monthly chart shows price having made a lower high and higher low versus the May candlestick. Price is currently trading below its monthly pivot and is testing the MM MA for support. With two weeks left in the bar anything can happen, so it is too early to draw any conclusions about the multi-year cycle from the current bar. We are in the timing area for the projected multi-year low to be seen, however, so it important to watch for signs that price has made its MY high and is declining to find its MY low. Should price close this month below its monthly pivot and MM MA, that would be such a sign.

The weekly chart shows price last week having made a lower high and lower low versus the prior candlestick, closing below the green MW MA. Price early in this week's candle has opened below the monthly and weekly pivots and the declining MW MA, behavior indicative of being on the downside of the multi-month cycle. We are overdue for the projected multi-month low. When that low is in, price will close above the MW MA and turn that MA upward.  

The daily chart shows price last week making a MW low on Tuesday and a possible MW high on Thursday. Friday's decline and today's lower open could just be the downside of the multi-day cycle, but price needs to turn higher today or tomorrow to regain the MD MA for me to believe this is merely a MD cycle decline. The failure of the MD MA or weekly pivot to support price indicates that it is more likely that we are yet again on the downside of the MW cycle. Last week's lower MW high (if it is) would also indicate that we are on the downside of the MM cycle, which confirms the what we are seeing on the weekly chart.

The next MW low is not projected until the first week in July, so price has plenty of time remaining to take out last week's low. The multi-month cycle has the ability to turn the multi-week cycle early, of course, but with price already below the monthly pivot at MM MA, there is a lack of obvious higher timeframe support levels to cause the turn. It is possible that the overdue MM low will appear as a half-shift MW low, would means we could see the MW low next Monday rather than early July. Even in that case, I would expect last week's low to be taken out on the downside.  

The hourly chart shows price making a multi-day high in the form of a head-and-shoulders pattern then breaking below the MW MA, the monthly pivot, and finally the MD MA/weekly pivot confluence, which hints at price being on the downside of not only the MD cycle, but the MW and MM cycles as well (as discussed above). We are overdue for the MD low to be made, but the MD cycle is often at the whims of the MW and MM cycles, so the projection in these cases is meaningless. Like last Tuesday's low, we will know the MD low is in when price is able to break above the white 24Hr MA and turn that MA upward as price seeks out its next MD high. The 24Hr low is not projected until after the close, so I would expect the gold Session MA to provide resistance for price throughout the trading day.  

Friday 6/12/2015

The daily chart shows price yesterday making a higher low and higher high versus the prior day and closing above the weekly pivot/monthly pivot confluence. With the upturn of the blue MD MA, we can officially label Tuesday's low as a multi-week low. Price thus far today is wearing the daily pivot as a hat and has made a lower high and lower low. This is behavior that hints that price is on the downside of the multi-day cycle; since we are in the timeframe for the projected MW high, we must be open to the possibility that yesterday was both a MD and MW high. There will be more discussion about this in Monday's commentary when we have more price-based evidence to weigh.

The hourly chart shows price making a 24Hr high late morning yesterday, exactly 24 hourly bars after the prior 24Hr high. Price overnight drifted below the white 24Hr MA and price has been unable to get back above it. This is behavior indicative of price being on the downside of the multi-day cycle. It is uncertain at this point whether a 24Hr low was made overnight and the attempt to breach the 24Hr MA several hours ago was a lower 24Hr high. Price is currently trading slightly below the MW MA; this MA and the weekly/monthly pivot confluence area are logical places for price to find support for the 24Hr low and multi-day low, with the blue MD MA further below as another potential backstop. The MD low is projected for around noon today.

Thursday 6/11/2015

The daily chart shows price yesterday opening above its daily pivot and making a large bullish candle, closing right at the confluence of the MW MA, monthly pivot and weekly pivot. It appears the overdue multi-week low was indeed seen on Tuesday, though it is still premature to make an official designation of the low (a higher multi-day low is needed to confirm). The MW high was projected for yesterday, and with price having to contend with the triple confluence of potential resistance mentioned above, it will be interesting to see how far this rally can go in both time and price.

It has been mentioned that price appeared to be on the downside of the multi-month cycle as well as the multi-week cycle.  We were in the time window for a multi-month low to be seen, so it is possible that the Tuesday low was also a MM low.  If so, the multi-day and multi-week highs may extend in duration, enabling price to make new highs before the MW high is seen.

The hourly chart shows price yesterday surging up after the NY open and making its 24Hr high just above the green MW MA. Price then traded sideways around the gold session MA. It appears that a 24Hr low was made somewhere in this sideways trading, and price has since been finding support on its session MA and is lifting it higher indicating we are on the upside of the 24Hr cycle. A 24Hr high is projected for late morning, and we are overdue for a multi-day high to be seen. A MD low is projected for tomorrow, and a higher MD low (preferably made on MD MA support) will confirm Tuesday as the MW low.  

Wednesday 6/10/2015

Note:  The following commentary was written prior to the market open but posting was delayed due to cable outage.  The hourly chart picture was taken pre-open as well, but the daily chart picture was taken just before posting.

The daily chart shows price yesterday making a lower low and lower high but closing above the prior day's close while forming a "hammer" candlestick. Price today has thus far opened above the daily pivot and is currently testing the MD MA from below. Until price can get above the MD MA and turn it upward, there is no evidence that we have put in a multi-week low, but given that we are overdue for the MW low, it is reasonable to keep an open mind that yesterday was the MW low. If so, price should soon test higher timeframe resistance in the 2100 area where there will soon be a confluence of the weekly pivot and the MM and MW MAs. Given the overdue nature of the MW high, it will be interesting to see if price can eclipse that area for the next MW high. On the other hand, should price falter at its current level and fail to penetrate the blue MD MA, it leaves open the possibility that the MW low still lies ahead of us.

The hourly chart shows price making a 24Hr and multi-day low yesterday morning before the NY open. Price was then able to get above the white 24Hr MA and has found support on that MA several times as price has moved higher. This is the behavior of price on the upside of the MD cycle as I described in yesterday's commentary on the hourly chart. Price should now test the declining blue MD MA before finding its MD high which itself is overdue. If price can eclipse the MD MA before finding its MD high then find support on the MD MA for its next MD low, then it will confirm Tuesday's low as the overdue MW low as well.  

Tuesday 6/9/2015

The daily chart shows price yesterday with a large move down, opening below the daily pivot and making a lower high and lower low versus the prior day. Price today has opened below the daily pivot and has also thus far made a lower high and lower low. This is textbook behavior of price on the downside of its multi-week cycle. The MW low is well past due; in fact, the MW high is projected for tomorrow. Perhaps we will see an inversion of the cycle and the MW low will finally be made on the projection for the MW high. Regardless of when the MW low is made, the action will look familiar- price will move above the blue MD MA and lead that average upward in search of the next MW high.

If the MW low is not made within the next few days, another more bearish alternative will have to be given more weight. It is possible that the MW low has already been seen and was followed by a feeble one-day rally to a MW high on June 3rd (marked with a "?"). Price did close above the MD MA that day, flattened the average out from its prior decline, and tested the MW MA. This is not the preferred line of thinking at this stage, but if larger timeframe cycles such as the multi-year and multi-month are moving down hard, the smaller MW cycle can often be swamped and its own peaks and troughs are muted. For now, I will stick with the expectation that a MW low is overdue and will be seen soon.

The hourly chart continues to show a textbook picture of price on the downside of the multi-day cycle, with price finding resistance for its 24Hr highs at the 24Hr MA or the daily pivot. A white trendline has been drawn connecting the 24Hr highs, and it is a fairly nice parallel to the white 24Hr MA. This usually indicates that we are near the end of a move and that a change of trend is near. We are grossly overdue for a MD low to be seen and in fact we are overdue for a MD high. As mentioned above, it is possible that the MD cycle is being swamped by the downward force of longer timeframe cycles. This is not a frequent occurrence, but it has happened on a few occasions. At some point, the multi-day cycle will start to assert itself again, and when it does price will leave behind its MD low by closing above the 24Hr MA and daily pivot and turning the 24Hr MA upward as it tests the blue MD MA.

Monday 6/8/2015

The monthly chart shows price thus far in June having made a lower high and higher low, opening above the monthly pivot but currently trading below it. Price is still trading above the upsloping MM MA. We are overdue for a multi-year high, and this month is the projection for the multi-year low. When price trades below the MM MA and bends the average downward, we will know we are on the downside of the MY cycle. Until then, price should be expected to ride the MM MA support to new highs.

The weekly chart shows price last week making a lower high and lower low, closing under the monthly pivot and on the MM MA. Price early in this week's candle has opened below its weekly pivot and that has turned the green MW MA lower; should the weekly candle close with the MW MA pointing downward, we can officially designate the mid-May high as a multi-month high. Given the shorter low-to-low cycle lengths that the high-to-high cycle lengths, we are actually past the projected date for the multi-month low. Whenever the MM low is made, the MW MA will cease to act as resistance and price will be able to trade above this average and turn its slope upward.

The daily chart shows price trading below the MM MA and below the confluence of the monthly and weekly pivots in the 2099 area. We are overdue for the MW low, and the MW high is projected for Wednesday. When the MW low is in, price will close above the blue MD MA resistance and turn that average upward. It will then be important to see where price makes its next multi-week high. A lower MW high means that the May MW high was also a multi-month high. Given the overdue nature of the multi-year high, we must be wary that any MM high is also a MY high.

The hourly chart shows price continually finding resistance at the levels of the daily pivot (white crosses) or the white 24Hr MA. This is what price looks like on the downside of the multi-day and multi-week cycles. It is possible that a 24Hr high was made just four bars ago at daily pivot resistance, and unless there has been another 24Hr low after the Friday morning low, then we are overdue for a 24Hr low to be seen. We are also overdue for the MD low to be seen, so it is likely that the next 24Hr low will also be the MD low, or that Friday will prove to have been the MD low. Given that we are also overdue for the MW low, it is likely that the MD low will also be a MW low. Given the logic flow, we can see that swing traders should be preparing for a sizable rally soon. Before this rally can start however, price needs to close above daily pivot resistance and show that the MD low is behind us.

Friday 6/5/2015

Yesterday price made a lower high and lower low than the prior day, closing on monthly pivot support. The low took out Tuesday's low and indicated price is still searching for its multi--week low. Today's action has seen price open below the daily pivot and the MM MA and is currently trading below the monthly pivot.

The inability of price to find support on the monthly pivot or MM MA is concerning, as it usually means that price is on the downside of the multi-year cycle. We are overdue for the MY high, and the MY low is actually due this month. It should be noted, however, that there is not yet confirmation that the MY high is in, and that price over the last several months has breached its monthly pivots and MM MA quite frequently. More importantly, it quickly recovers from those breaches and closes its monthly candlestick above those key areas.

Trading below its key higher timeframe support areas of the MM MA and monthly pivot, there is little we can look for to guess  where price may find support should price not recover today. The low thus far today was a perfect 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the gain from the last MW low to the mid-May MW high.  Failure of price to hold there leaves the level of the prior MW low as the next obvious target.  Wherever price makes its MW low, we will know it has been made when price is able to trade above the blue MD MA and turn that average upward.

The hourly chart shows price yesterday making its 24Hr high under 24Hr and MD MA resistance. Price then made an oddly premature lower 24Hr low, then spent the overnight hours trading sideways under the monthly pivot before a feeble attempt at the daily pivot formed its 24Hr high. This is all behavior indicative of price being on the downside of the multi-day cycle, which when combined with the downside of the multi-week cycle can create some large price declines. We are in the window for the expected MD low, and are overdue for the MW low. It is reasonable to expect that the next MD low will also be the MW low. When price is able to close above the daily pivot on an hourly basis, and find support on the pivot or the white 24Hr MA, we will know the MD low is in.

Thursday 6/4/2015

The daily chart shows price yesterday opening above the daily pivot and making a higher low and higher high versus Tuesday. Price closed above the MD MA, the MW MA and the weekly pivot, providing the first sign that perhaps the overdue multi-week low had been made. Unfortunately, price action today has traded back below the weekly pivot and MD and MW MAs and is once again testing the MM MA and monthly pivot for support. Tuesday's low remains a candidate for the MW low, but thus far price is not behaving like the low is behind us. When the low has been seen, price will trade above the blue MD MA and turn that average upward, using it as support for its lows on the way toward making its next MW high.

The hourly chart shows price yesterday finding resistance for its 24Hr high at the green MW MA. Price overnight has traded back below the weekly pivot and is once again testing the monthly pivot. The MW MA acting as resistance is indicative of being on the downside of the multi-month cycle, something that has been mentioned as a possibility when discussing the weekly chart but that has thus far had too little conclusive evidence supporting the idea. While still not definitive, the continuing inability to trade above the MW MA is hard to ignore.

Price is overdue for a 24Hr low, and that low may have been seen several hours ago when price tested the MM MA (not shown on the hourly chart) and the monthly pivot. If price makes a higher session low in the next hour or two, it will confirm the 24Hr low is in. Yesterday's high was likely a multi-day high, so I would expect price to find resistance at the white 24Hr MA/blue MD MA confluence area for its next 24Hr high projected for near the NY open.

Wednesday 6/3/2015

The daily chart shows price yesterday making a lower high and lower low versus Monday, but with price bouncing from monthly pivot support and closing well off its lows. Price today has opened above the daily pivot and is currently trading above the MD and MW MAs. Should price today remain above those MAs by the close, it would indicate that we are on the upside of the multi-week cycle and that yesterday was a MW low. Price should then eventually bend the blue MD MA upward and ride its support into the next MW high which is projected for next Wednesday. This would also correspond well with the projection for next week to see the multi-month high. For this to prove accurate, price will have to eclipse the mid-May all-time high in the next week and change; failure to do so will indicate that the MM high was seen in mid-May and that we are on the downside of the multi-month cycle.

The hourly chart shows price having made a 24Hr low (and MD low) yesterday before the NY open then surging to make its 24Hr high above the weekly pivot and blue MD MA. Price appears to have made a half-span 24Hr low (12 bars from the prior 24Hr low) just after the NY close and has ridden the support of the gold Session MA all the way up to the green MW MA. The 24Hr high is not due until 1pm, but the higher timeframe resistance of the MW MA could put this high in early, just as the monthly pivot put in an early multi-day low yesterday. Of course, price could just be pulling back to the session MA to find support for its session low before resuming higher. While an early 24Hr high would not be extremely bearish, failure to eclipse the MW MA on a continuing basis would indicate that we are on the downside of the multi-month cycle, so it is important that price break above this level in the next day or two.

Tuesday 6/2/2015 - A multi-week bottom being made today?

The daily chart shows price yesterday making a lower high and lower low but higher close, closing just above the daily pivot but under MD MA and MW MA resistance. Price today opened right at those resistance levels and has sold off to take out yesterday's (and last Tuesday's) low and has tested the monthly pivot. It was mentioned yesterday that price showed no signs of having yet made a MW low, and the action since then has only provided more evidence that we are still on the downside of the multi-week cycle. If we are still on the upside of the multi-month cycle, price should find support on the monthly pivot for the slightly overdue MW low to be made. Should price today or tomorrow be able to rally above the downsloping MD MA/weekly pivot confluence, the odds are high that the MW low has been made and I would expect price to retest the May highs.

The hourly chart shows wild, choppy action yesterday above and below the level of the daily pivot and weekly pivot confluence. A 24Hr low was made in the 11:00am hour, and a 24Hr high was made beneath the MW MA several hours later. Price has since dropped back below the daily pivot and plunged below yesterday's low to test the monthly pivot, and is currently bouncing from that level.  

The abnormal whipsawing through the daily pivot/weekly pivot area has made it difficult to designate 24Hr highs/lows and thus multi-day highs/lows. I have changed my earlier designation of the MD low to yesterday, though that involves a less-than-desirable 24Hr high designation earlier that day. This is of minor significance to the time projections anyway, and even more so when price is testing levels such as the MM MA and monthly pivot. Higher timeframe support/resistance areas like these can cause lower timeframe cycles to turn, so whether it is early to be seeing a 24Hr low or MD low (or even a MW low), the MM MA and monthly pivot could provide the support for price to find that low. Price made at least a session low around that area, then retested it four bars later for a 3Hr low (which can be 2-4 hrs in length). If price makes a higher session low (5-7 hrs in length) in a couple of hours then it will confirm that the 24Hr low is in. Since we are overdue for the MW low and the monthly pivot can turn the MW cycle, it will also be likely that the 24Hr low will also mark a MD and MW low. Should the earlier low be taken out, we will then be near the time of the projected 24Hr low, so it is likely that low will mark the 24Hr low, MD low, and MW low.