Friday 5/1/2015 May Day! May Day!

The daily chart show price yesterday opening below the daily and weekly pivots and making a lower high and lower low versus the prior candlestick. Price found support at the area of the MM MA and new May monthly pivot. Yesterday's action succeeded in turning the blue MD MA downward, confirming Monday's high as a multi-week high. This was a higher MW high, which is bullish, but the half-span arrival of the MW high (which was projected for next Wednesday) is bearish. The failure of the green MW MA to support price, and the fact that the MW MA has turned flat, is also bearish.

It appears that even though the triangle pattern was resolved, the directional war between larger timeframe cycles is still at work creating frequent half-span shifts of the MM, MW, and MD cycles. These tug-of-wars between cycles always resolve themselves in the direction of the larger trend. It had appeared that the larger MY cycle had won when price made a new all-time high earlier this week, but it is possible that was just a smaller battle won in an ongoing war. The half-span shifts often come in pairs, so there is no reason why the multi-week low, projected for the end of next week, could not have been made yesterday on MW MA support. Should we close below yesterday's low,the odds of a half-span shift of the MW low diminish and I would expect a steeper decline next week.

The hourly chart shows price declining all yesterday until the 24Hr low was found in the area that would happen to become the new monthly pivot. Price was squeezed overnight between the support of the gold Session MA and the resistance of the daily pivot and white 24Hr MA but was recently able to break above the resistance. We are overdue for the 24Hr high, and both the 24Hr low and the MD low are projected for late afternoon; this would normally mean a down day resembling yesterday is in store, but it is possible that the higher timeframe support has caused the MD low to be made yesterday. If this is the case, we could see the 24Hr high extend in time and price rally to the green MW MA. Should price drop back down below the daily pivot and white 24Hr MA early in today's trading, it would mean the 24Hr high is in and price should spend the rest of the day moving lower in search of its 24Hr low.