Tuesday 4/14/2015

The daily chart shows price yesterday making opening above the daily pivot, making a higher high than the prior candle, but closing down, below the daily pivot. Price thus far today opened below the daily pivot and made a lower low, testing the MD MA from above. This price action is indicative of price being on the downside of the multi-day cycle.

Given that yesterday was also the projection for the multi-week cycle high and that price was near the top boundary of its triangle pattern, we must be open to the possibility that the MD MA will fail to support price; indeed, if yesterday was the MW high, I would expect the usual support of the weekly pivot, monthly pivot, or MM MA would fail to support price as price has been ignoring those levels of support/resistance during the formation of the triangle. Adding to this would be the fact that if yesterday was a MW high, it was lower than the prior March MW high - bearish action that indicates price is on the downside of the multi-month cycle as well. The next MW low is projected for 4/22.

An alternative, and more bullish, scenario is that yesterday was merely a multi-day high, and price will find support for the multi-day low (already past due) on the MD MA. Price will then see at least another multi-day cycle rise as the MW cycle extends in time aided by the upside of the multi-month cycle.

Either of these scenarios is possible, and it will soon become obvious which is correct.

The hourly chart shows price having made a 24Hr high yesterday at the 11:00AM bar, far earlier than projected. Price then declined, making a possible early 24Hr low at the close, then trading up overnight to a possible (and early) 24Hr high just above the daily pivot this morning. Price fell again down to the MD MA where thus far it has found support. 

 With what appears to be a lower 24Hr high and what is definitely a lower 24Hr low, I have marked yesterday's high as the multi-day high. The MD low is already past projection, and the MD MA would be a great place for that low to have been made. Price is currently in the timeframe to make a session high, and the slight kiss of the gold Session MA one bar ago may have been that high. Regardless, price should make another session low late morning; if this is a higher session low, it will mean the 24Hr low (and possibly the MD low) has been made and price should rally to test the 24Hr MA or daily pivot. If the early low is taken out, expect price to test the blue weekly pivot at the 2076.83 area at a minimum before price finds its 24Hr low (which is not projected to occur until late afternoon).

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