Market Analysis for 7/31/12

The daily chart shows price yesterday opening above the daily pivot and making a higher low and higher high. Price today has opened below the daily pivot but is currently trading above it. Having made a higher MW low and eclipsed the prior MW high, price is on the upside of the multi-month and multi-week cycles; a multi-week high is projected for Thursday.

The hourly chart shows price correcting sideways since Friday's 24Hr high in a series of short-cycled 24Hr highs and lows. It seems these hybrid cycles (abnormally short for 24Hr cycles, abnormally long for session cycles) are coming more and more frequently, and I am not sure what to make of them other than to hopefully figure it out after the fact when price does something more "normal". In any case, price has consistently found support on the 24Hr MA during this consolidation, behavior associated with being on the upside of the MD cycle. We are overdue for a 24Hr low to be found, and if the 24Hr high designations are correct then the overnight 24Hr high was a lower 24Hr high; we will now see whether price will finally crack the 24Hr MA and daily pivot in finding the next 24Hr low due overnight tonight.

We are currently in the timeframe to find a session low, and a session high is projected for 12:15pm EST.

I am short from yesterday and fully expect the S&P to break the daily pivot and 24Hr MA today and make a trip down to the MD MA nearly 20 points below.  A break above the highs of this congestion range (some 9 points higher) would tell me that the multi-month and multi-week cycles are up so strong that a sideways correction of the MD cycle is all that could be mustered (and would be very bullish for the market).

Bruce's Pre-market Analysis for 7/31

The daily chart shows price yesterday opening above the daily pivot and making a higher low and higher high. Price today has opened below the daily pivot but is currently trading above it. Having made a higher MW low and eclipsed the prior MW high, price is on the upside of the multi-month and multi-week cycles; a multi-week high is projected for Thursday.

The hourly chart shows price correcting sideways since Friday's 24Hr high in a series of short-cycled 24Hr highs and lows. It seems these hybrid cycles (abnormally short for 24Hr cycles, abnormally long for session cycles) are coming more and more frequently, and I am not sure what to make of them other than to hopefully figure it out after the fact when price does something more "normal". In any case, price has consistently found support on the 24Hr MA during this consolidation, behavior associated with being on the upside of the MD cycle. We are overdue for a 24Hr low to be found, and if the 24Hr high designations are correct then the overnight 24Hr high was a lower 24Hr high; we will now see whether price will finally crack the 24Hr MA and daily pivot in finding the next 24Hr low due overnight tonight.

We are currently in the timeframe to find a session low, and a session high is projected for 11:15am Central.

Market Analysis for 7/30/12

The hourly chart shows price making a 24Hr high just before the close on Friday. We are in the timeframe to see a 24Hr low and price is holding steady while the 24Hr MA races up to meet it.  Price is bouncing at the open, possibly indicating price has found a 24Hr low above daily pivot and 24Hr MA support, though a higher session low in roughly two hours is needed to confirm. A MD low is due this evening, but price is showing no signs of being on the downside of the MD cycle. A 24Hr high is projected for after the close today.

With a 24Hr high due near the close today, dips should be used to trade long.  Any break of the white 24Hr MA will be a sign that the MD cycle has rolled over and I would then expect a correction to the weekly pivot or green MW MA.

Bruce's Analysis for 7/30/12

The hourly chart shows price making a 24Hr high just before the close on Friday. We are in the timeframe to see a 24Hr low and price is holding steady while the 24Hr MA races up to meet it. Price is bouncing at the open, possibly indicating price has found a 24Hr low above daily pivot and 24Hr MA support, though a higher session low in roughly two hours is needed to confirm. A MD low is due this evening, but price is showing no signs of being on the downside of the MD cycle. A 24Hr high is projected for after the close today.

Weekly Projection for 7/30/12

The monthly chart shows price in June having madea lower low and lower high but finding support on the MY MA and closing above the monthly pivot. With the July candle closing today, price has opened above the monthly pivot and made a higher low and higher high. It is appearing more likely that the recent pullback to the MY MA was merely the downside of the multi-month cycle, though until we eclipse the March highs or break the June lows the status of the MY cycle is uncertain.

The weekly chart shows price last week opening below the weekly pivot and making a lower low, but boncing off higher timeframe support and closing well above the weekly pivot while making a higher high. Price early in this week's candle has opened well above the new weekly pivot but has shown little movement. The price action indicates that we are still on the upside of the MM cycle. We are overdue for a MM high to be seen, but the March high is within striking distance and eclipsing that high is needed to show we are still on the upside of the MY cycle.

The daily chart shows price making a Wednesday low on monthly pivot and MM MA support and closing on a Friday high above the prior MW high.  Price today has opened above the daily pivot but has thus far traded in a narrow range.  The next MW high is projected for Thursday. 

Bruce's Weekly Projection for 7/30/12

The monthly chart shows price in June having madea lower low and lower high but finding support on the MY MA and closing above the monthly pivot. With the July candle closing today, price has opened above the monthly pivot and made a higher low and higher high. It is appearing more likely that the recent pullback to the MY MA was merely the downside of the multi-month cycle, though until we eclipse the March highs or break the June lows the status of the MY cycle is uncertain.

The weekly chart shows price last week opening below the weekly pivot and making a lower low, but boncing off higher timeframe support and closing well above the weekly pivot while making a higher high. Price early in this week's candle has opened well above the new weekly pivot but has shown little movement. The price action indicates that we are still on the upside of the MM cycle. We are overdue for a MM high to be seen, but the March high is within striking distance and eclipsing that high is needed to show we are still on the upside of the MY cycle.

The daily chart shows price making a Wednesday low on monthly pivot and MM MA support and closing on a Friday high above the prior MW high.  Price today has opened above the daily pivot but has thus far traded in a narrow range.  The next MW high is projected for Thursday. 

Anatomy of an Idiot: mid-morning update for 7/27/12

Who would only be looking to go short while the market climbs 50 pts, 200 pts, and 100+ pts in successive days?  A lousy trader, that's who.  A.K.A.  "This Guy".  While acknowledging that the monthly pivot (pink horizontal line) could have turned the multi-week cycle up early, I nevertheless maintained a bearish outlook and rather than looking to go long on dips to the white 24Hr MA or yellow daily pivots, I instead looked for opportunities to short into a market that was ripping upward.  It's mind-boggling how I can not only miss these moves, but often be on the wrong side of them.  Discouraging end to a discouraging week.

Market Analysis for 7/27/12

The daily chart shows yesterday opening above the daily pivot and making a higher low and higher high, closing well above the MD and MW MAs and just under the weekly pivot. Price today has thus far opened well above the daily pivot and made a higher high but is still meeting some resistance at the weekly pivot. While it is still possible that this is merely a MD cycle bounce, it is looking more and more likely that the multi-week low was made earlier than projected on Wednesday on higher timeframe monthly pivot and MM MA support. If so, we have made a very slightly higher MW low to go along with the very slightly higher MW high, which would indicate that we are still on the upside of the multi-month cycle but that momentum appears to be waning. A MW high is projected for next Thursday.

  

The hourly chart shows price early yesterday morning finding soft support on the daily pivot and rallying all day. Price has possibly made an overdue 24Hr high overnight just above the weekly pivot, though a lower session high projected for 9:00am EST is needed to confirm. Price has just tested and bounced off of the 24Hr MA. A 24Hr low is projected for either the NY open or 3 hrs after (I am still unsure about my 24Hr high/low designations for Wednesday). We are overdue to see a MDH, and a MDL is projected for late Monday.

Yesterday I did not take my own advice to go long on a pullback to the brown session MA projected for 11:15am (pullback actually occurred at 12:15pm), but sadly did take my own advice to short at the weekly pivot (green horizontal line on chart below) and was stopped out overnight for a small loss.  As I've said a thousand times, I'm a horrible trader.  

As for today, price seemed to have found support at the 24Hr MA an hour ago, but I find it very hard to believe that we are going to make a 24Hr low there and spend the rest of the day rallying.  With the 24Hr high and multi-day high both being extremely overdue, I will be looking to get short today and anticipate a lower open on Monday.  A break of the white 24Hr MA should provide at least 6 points of downside, and possibly a trip down to the blue multi-day moving average by Monday.

  

Bruce's Pre-market Analysis for 7/27/12

The daily chart shows yesterday opening above the daily pivot and making a higher low and higher high, closing well above the MD and MW MAs and just under the weekly pivot. Price today has thus far opened well above the daily pivot and made a higher high but is still meeting some resistance at the weekly pivot. While it is still possible that this is merely a MD cycle bounce, it is looking more and more likely that the multi-week low was made earlier than projected on Wednesday on higher timeframe monthly pivot and MM MA support. If so, we have made a very slightly higher MW low to go along with the very slightly higher MW high, which would indicate that we are still on the upside of the multi-month cycle but that momentum appears to be waning. A MW high is projected for next Thursday.

  

The hourly chart shows price early yesterday morning finding soft support on the daily pivot and rallying all day. Price has possibly made an overdue 24Hr high overnight just above the weekly pivot, though a lower session high projected for 8:00am Central is needed to confirm. Price has just tested and bounced off of the 24Hr MA. A 24Hr low is projected for either the NY open or 3 hrs after (I am still unsure about my 24Hr high/low designations for Wednesday). We are overdue to see a MDH, and a MDL is projected for late Monday.

  

Market Analysis for 7/26/12

The daily chart shows price yesterday opening below the daily pivot and making a lower low but finding support on the monthly pivot and closing above the daily pivot. Price today has opened above the daily pivot and made a higher low and higher high. Price has thus far eclipsed the MD and MW MAs and is approaching the weekly pivot. This behavior indicates we are on the upside of the MD cycle; how price reacts to the weekly pivot will let us know where we are in the multi-week and multi-month cycles. It is possible that the monthly pivot and MM MA have turned the MW cycle early, indicating we are still on the upside of the MM cycle and are now on the upside of the MW cycle; it is also possible that we are merely on the upside of the MD cycle and price will resume its search for a MW low. Price behavior in the next day or two should tell us which scenario is unfolding.

  

The hourly chart shows price yesterday with a double-topping gyration around the daily pivot but with 24Hr MA support to form a 24Hr high, then a break of the 24Hr MA to form what appears to be a 24Hr low several hours ago. Price has since surged up and taken out the MD and MW MAs this morning. The higher 24Hr low confirms we are on the upside of the MD cycle. We are past due to see a MD high, and the 24Hr high is projected for around the close of today's regular session. We are currently in the timeframe for a session high to be seen, and a session low is projected for 11:15am EST.

Once again I have been fooled by sluggish early action coming out of a multi-day low; while the action coming out of a multi-day high is usually a market free-fall, the action coming out of a multi-day low seems to stutter step the first day before skyrocketing in day two.  While we found "soft support" on the 24Hr MA yesterday like I had mentioned was possible, it was too soft for my liking and I ended up bailing on my longs near the lows yesterday morning.  I clawed back to near break-even during the day with some daytrades but have no long positions as I awake to find the market soaring.  The market should continue to rise today, but I would expect the weekly pivot to provide resistance for the move up.  If we pull back toward the brown session MA sometime around 11:15am I will look to go long for a move up the remainder of the day, but I will look to short if price gets up to the weekly pivot in the 1358 area.

Bruce's Pre-market Analysis for 7/26/12

The daily chart shows price yesterday opening below the daily pivot and making a lower low but finding support on the monthly pivot and closing above the daily pivot. Price today has opened above the daily pivot and made a higher low and higher high. Price has thus far eclipsed the MD and MW MAs and is approaching the weekly pivot. This behavior indicates we are on the upside of the MD cycle; how price reacts to the weekly pivot will let us know where we are in the multi-week and multi-month cycles. It is possible that the monthly pivot and MM MA have turned the MW cycle early, indicating we are still on the upside of the MM cycle and are now on the upside of the MW cycle; it is also possible that we are merely on the upside of the MD cycle and price will resume its search for a MW low. Price behavior in the next day or two should tell us which scenario is unfolding.

  

The hourly chart shows price yesterday with a double-topping gyration around the daily pivot but with 24Hr MA support to form a 24Hr high, then a break of the 24Hr MA to form what appears to be a 24Hr low several hours ago. Price has since surged up and taken out the MD and MW MAs this morning. The higher 24Hr low confirms we are on the upside of the MD cycle. We are past due to see a MD high, and the 24Hr high is projected for around the close of today's regular session. We are currently in the timeframe for a session high to be seen, and a session low is projected for 10:15am Central.

mid-morning update for 7/25

Well, today's call couldn't have been any worse, as we pulled back to the daily pivot as I had hoped, but cut through it like a hot knife through butter and made a trip down to the 24Hr MA.  I am long and bleeding from the daily pivot, and will hold to see if we find support at the 24Hr MA as we should if we are on the upside of the multi-day cycle.  It seems unlikely that yesterday was not a multi-day low, so if we keep going south here I can only assume that we are hard down on the multi-month and multi-week cycles and that the multi-day cycle is being suppressed; this happened often during the rise out of the multi-year low in October of last year, when the market would make sustained runs with only one-day pauses.

7/25/12 - bounce day out of a multi-day low

The daily chart shows price yesterday opening below the daily pivot and making a lower high and lower low and finding support on the on the monthly pivot. Today price has opened below the daily pivot and made a lower low, again finding soft support on the monthly pivot and MM MA before bouncing above the daily pivot. A multi-week low is projected for Friday or Sunday evening; it is likely that we are seeing merely a bounce out of a MD cycle low, but it is also possible that the higher timeframe support has again turned the MW cycle ahead of projection as it did the prior MW low. We will need to see how price reacts in the area of the MD and MW MAs to know for sure where we are in the MW cycle, but one must assume we are on the downside of it until evidence suggests otherwise.

The hourly chart shows price yesterday finding making a 24Hr high under daily pivot resistance and trading down the remainder of the day until finding its 24Hr low just after the close on monthly pivot support. Price has rallied overnight off of that support and has traded above the 24Hr MA and daily pivot, indicating that yesterday was a MD low. A 24Hr high is projected for near the open and we are also in the window to see a MDH made; it is not unusual to see 24Hr highs extend past projection when coming out of a MDL, however, and I would expect to see price test higher timeframe resistance in the MD and MW MAs before finding its MD high. We are currently overdue to see a session cycle low.

A sell-off around the open to put in a session low (around the brown session MA or daily pivot) should provide a strong buying opportunity for another run up.  I do not expect a 24Hr high to be found until we test the green MW MA above, so buying on the open provides about 3 1/2 points of risk for a potential 10 points of reward, but obviously a sell-off to what I expect to be firm support will make that risk-reward scenario even more appealing.

Bruce's Pre-market Analysis for 7/25

The daily chart shows price yesterday opening below the daily pivot and making a lower high and lower low and finding support on the on the monthly pivot. Today price has opened below the daily pivot and made a lower low, again finding soft support on the monthly pivot and MM MA before bouncing above the daily pivot. A multi-week low is projected for Friday or Sunday evening; it is likely that we are seeing merely a bounce out of a MD cycle low, but it is also possible that the higher timeframe support has again turned the MW cycle ahead of projection as it did the prior MW low. We will need to see how price reacts in the area of the MD and MW MAs to know for sure where we are in the MW cycle, but one must assume we are on the downside of it until evidence suggests otherwise.

The hourly chart shows price yesterday finding making a 24Hr high under daily pivot resistance and trading down the remainder of the day until finding its 24Hr low just after the close on monthly pivot support. Price has rallied overnight off of that support and has traded above the 24Hr MA and daily pivot, indicating that yesterday was a MD low. A 24Hr high is projected for near the open and we are also in the window to see a MDH made; it is not unusual to see 24Hr highs extend past projection when coming out of a MDL, however, and I would expect to see price test higher timeframe resistance in the MD and MW MAs before finding its MD high. We are currently overdue to see a session cycle low.

Market Analysis for 7/24/12

The daily chart shows price yesterday opening below the daily and weekly pivots and making a lower high and lower low. Today's candle has again opened below the daily pivot and thus far had an inside day. The MD and MW MAs have turned down and the stochastic has had a definitive bearish cross, indicating Thursday was a multi-week high. That high was one point higher than the prior MW high at the beginning of July; technically a higher MW high means we are on the upside of the MM cycle, but whether it is so close to being a double-top that it indicates the MM cycle has rolled over is a legitimate question that remains open for now. A multi-week low is projected for the week's end, and price would be expected to visit the monthly pivot or MM MA before then.

The hourly chart shows price plunging from Friday morning until the Monday morning 24Hr low. Price then rallied to find its 24Hr high below 24Hr MA resistance. Price has subsequently found resistance at the daily pivot and 24Hr MA, though whether we have seen another 24Hr low/high pairing in the meantime is uncertain. By definition, we have seen another 24Hr low just after the close and only 8 bars after yesterday morning's low and another 24Hr high under daily pivot resistance overnight. These are insanely short cycles (not even half cycles), so I'm uncertain how to treat them. We would normally be expecting a 24Hr low to be put in a little after the NY open, but I am not placing any faith in that and will just let price do what it is going to do and figure out the designations later.  As long as the daily pivot acts as resistance, we are on the downside of the MD cycle which is slightly past due. A MD high is projected for two hours before Wednesday's open. We are currently in the window to see price make a session high as price is again challenging daily pivot resistance.

If price breaks above the overnight high, I will assume that a 24Hr low is behind us and trade long under the assumption that price will bounce to the blue MD MA before tomorrow a.m.  Should price instead find resistance yet again at the daily pivot, I will assume a 24Hr low and multi-day low are still ahead of us and be trading short.

Bruce's Pre-market Analysis for 7/24/12

The daily chart shows price yesterday opening below the daily and weekly pivots and making a lower high and lower low. Today's candle has again opened below the daily pivot and thus far had an inside day. The MD and MW MAs have turned down and the stochastic has had a definitive bearish cross, indicating Thursday was a multi-week high. That high was one point higher than the prior MW high at the beginning of July; technically a higher MW high means we are on the upside of the MM cycle, but whether it is so close to being a double-top that it indicates the MM cycle has rolled over is a legitimate question that remains open for now. A multi-week low is projected for the week's end, and price would be expected to visit the monthly pivot or MM MA before then.

The hourly chart shows price plunging from Friday morning until the Monday morning 24Hr low. Price then rallied to find its 24Hr high below 24Hr MA resistance. Price has subsequently found resistance at the daily pivot and 24Hr MA, though whether we have seen another 24Hr low/high pairing in the meantime is uncertain. By definition, we have seen another 24Hr low just after the close and only 8 bars after yesterday morning's low and another 24Hr high under daily pivot resistance overnight. These are insanely short cycles (not even half cycles), so I'm uncertain how to treat them. We would normally be expecting a 24Hr low to be put in a little after the NY open, but I am not placing any faith in that and will just let price do what it is going to do and figure out the designations later.  As long as the daily pivot acts as resistance, we are on the downside of the MD cycle which is slightly past due. A MD high is projected for two hours before Wednesday's open. We are currently in the window to see price make a session high as price is again challenging daily pivot resistance.

Daily Analysis for 7/23/12

The hourly chart shows price in a trend down following last Thursday's high. While I am unsure of my 24Hr high/low designations, a 24Hr low is overdue after undergoing an extreme right-translation that is not uncommon coming out of a MD high. We are currently in the timeframe to see a 24Hr high made, but obviously that cannot happen until we make a 24Hr low. We are mildly overdue for a multi-day low to be found, though that could right-translate even more if we are on the downside of the MW cycle. A session low is projected for 11:15am Central.

This is the price action you get coming out of a multi-day high, especially if we are also on the downside of the multi-week cycle.  I should have gone short Thursday but if we were still on the upside of the MW cycle price would likely have found support on the green MW MA.  We are overdue for a 24Hr low and multi-day low to be made, so I cannot enter short here.  A multi-day high is projected for Wednesday morning; normally price would be expected to rally to the blue MD MA in order to make this MD high, but I do not expect price to rally that far.  Any bounce to the green MW MA would likely be a good level to enter short for what should be an ugly week in the market.

Weekly Market Analysis for 7/23/12

The good news from the monthly chart is that price opened above the monthly pivot this candle and thus far has made a higher low and higher high. The bad news is that we are currently trading below the candle's opening price, and the MM MA and stochastics have both rolled over. The important question of whether we saw a multi-year high made in March remains unanswered at this point.

The good news from the monthly chart is that price opened above the monthly pivot this candle and thus far has made a higher low and higher high. The bad news is that we are currently trading below the candle's opening price, and the MM MA and stochastics have both rolled over. The important question of whether we saw a multi-year high made in March remains unanswered at this point.

The daily chart shows price last week having made a high on Thursday that double-topped with the prior MW high, then making a lower high and lower low on Friday and closing at the MD MA. Price this candle has opened below the daily pivot and traded down sharply through the MW MA. A MW low is projected for Friday; whether this low is higher or lower in price than the prior MW low will inform us of whether we are on the upside or downside of the multi-month cycle.

 

Bruce's Weekly Projection for 7/23/12

The good news from the monthly chart is that price opened above the monthly pivot this candle and thus far has made a higher low and higher high. The bad news is that we are currently trading below the candle's opening price, and the MM MA and stochastics have both rolled over. The important question of whether we saw a multi-year high made in March remains unanswered at this point.

The good news from the monthly chart is that price opened above the monthly pivot this candle and thus far has made a higher low and higher high. The bad news is that we are currently trading below the candle's opening price, and the MM MA and stochastics have both rolled over. The important question of whether we saw a multi-year high made in March remains unanswered at this point.

The daily chart shows price last week having made a high on Thursday that double-topped with the prior MW high, then making a lower high and lower low on Friday and closing at the MD MA. Price this candle has opened below the daily pivot and traded down sharply through the MW MA. A MW low is projected for Friday; whether this low is higher or lower in price than the prior MW low will inform us of whether we are on the upside or downside of the multi-month cycle.

 

Market Analysis for 7/20/12

The daily chart shows price yesterday opening above the daily pivot and making a higher low and higher high, eclipsing the prior MW high by one point in the process. Today price has opened just above the daily pivot and thus far made a lower high and lower low. The major question is whether price has made its MW high. If so, despite being a higher MWH it could still be considered a double-top of multi-week highs, coming at a time when the multi-month high is past due. The alternative is that price is just see a multi-day cycle correction and there is another run left on the upside of this MW cycle. How price reacts at the nearby MD MA will answer this question.

The 24Hr cycle has become extremely difficult for me to discern, as the hourly chart indicates. Perhaps the 8:30am - 12:30pm EST double top yesterday was a 24Hr high, though smack in the middle appears an obvious 24Hr low. I am leaning toward the high at the close Wednesday being a 24Hr high and disregarding the surge higher just before the 24Hr low as an anomaly caused by the still uptrending MD and MW cycles fighting against the 24Hr cycle; future price action could persuade me to change this opinion, however. It is also tempting to call the overnight bump against 24Hr MA resistance a 24Hr high, but there is no obvious 24Hr low preceding it.

In any case, what is obvious is that the daily pivot and 24Hr MA have acted as resistance since yesterday's close, indicating we are on the downside of the MD cycle. If we are still on the upside of the MW cycle, price should find soft support on the MD MA for the next 24Hr low; if yesterday was also a MW high, then I would expect the 24Hr low to extend in time past projection and for any support at the MD MA to fail. We are currently in the timeframe to find a session low as well as a 24Hr low.

Bruce's Pre-market Analysis for 7/20/12

The daily chart shows price yesterday opening above the daily pivot and making a higher low and higher high, eclipsing the prior MW high by one point in the process. Today price has opened just above the daily pivot and thus far made a lower high and lower low. The major question is whether price has made its MW high. If so, despite being a higher MWH it could still be considered a double-top of multi-week highs, coming at a time when the multi-month high is past due. The alternative is that price is just see a multi-day cycle correction and there is another run left on the upside of this MW cycle. How price reacts at the nearby MD MA will answer this question.

The 24Hr cycle has become extremely difficult for me to discern, as the hourly chart indicates. Perhaps the 7:30am - 11:30am Central double top yesterday was a 24Hr high, though smack in the middle appears an obvious 24Hr low. I am leaning toward the high at the close Wednesday being a 24Hr high and disregarding the surge higher just before the 24Hr low as an anomaly caused by the still uptrending MD and MW cycles fighting against the 24Hr cycle; future price action could persuade me to change this opinion, however. It is also tempting to call the overnight bump against 24Hr MA resistance a 24Hr high, but there is no obvious 24Hr low preceding it.

In any case, what is obvious is that the daily pivot and 24Hr MA have acted as resistance since yesterday's close, indicating we are on the downside of the MD cycle. If we are still on the upside of the MW cycle, price should find soft support on the MD MA for the next 24Hr low; if yesterday was also a MW high, then I would expect the 24Hr low to extend in time past projection and for any support at the MD MA to fail. We are currently in the timeframe to find a session low as well as a 24Hr low.

7/19/12 mid-day update

Price has found support at the 24Hr MA and, while a higher session low is needed to confirm, I believe that a 24Hr low was made on this support.  This means that we are still on the upside of the multi-day cycle and will likely trade higher throughout the day and make a higher 24Hr high sometime overnight or early tomorrow.  

Pre-market Analysis for 7/19/12

The daily chart shows price yesterday opening above the daily pivot and making a higher low and higher high. Price today has opened above the daily pivot and eclipsed yesterday's high. We are in the timeframe for a MW high to be made (my projection is for tomorrow), and currently price is at the same level as the prior MW high of 7/5/12. A double-top often marks the turn of a higher timeframe cycle, so a double-top of multi-week highs could indicate the multi-month cycle is rolling over. We shall see whether price can manage to avoid this situation by convincingly taking out the 7/5 high before the MW cycle high is put in.

The hourly chart shows price yesterday morning finding frequent support on the daily pivot and making its 24Hr low there before moving higher the remainder of the day. We are in the timeframe for a 24Hr low to be made, and it is unclear when or even if we have made a 24Hr high. We are in the timeframe for a MD cycle high, and as mentioned above, a MW cycle high to be made, so it is possible that price has severely right-translated this 24Hr high. A session high is projected for 10:00am Central.

I believe a 24Hr high has just been made an hour ago and price is on its search for the 24Hr low.  There is a possibility that price can find support at the white 24Hr MA or the yellow daily pivot for this 24Hr low, then make another higher 24Hr high before the multi-week cycle rolls over.  There is a substantial chance, however, that a 24Hr high and MW high, and likely even the MM high has been seen, which would lead us to a sharp sell-off.  I will bail on my longs at the open in my trading accounts and see how price acts around the 24Hr MA and daily pivot before deciding whether to trade long or short.

Bruce's Pre-market Analysis for 7/19/12

The daily chart shows price yesterday opening above the daily pivot and making a higher low and higher high. Price today has opened above the daily pivot and eclipsed yesterday's high. We are in the timeframe for a MW high to be made (my projection is for tomorrow), and currently price is at the same level as the prior MW high of 7/5/12. A double-top often marks the turn of a higher timeframe cycle, so a double-top of multi-week highs could indicate the multi-month cycle is rolling over. We shall see whether price can manage to avoid this situation by convincingly taking out the 7/5 high before the MW cycle high is put in.

The hourly chart shows price yesterday morning finding frequent support on the daily pivot and making its 24Hr low there before moving higher the remainder of the day. We are in the timeframe for a 24Hr low to be made, and it is unclear when or even if we have made a 24Hr high. We are in the timeframe for a MD cycle high, and as mentioned above, a MW cycle high to be made, so it is possible that price has severely right-translated this 24Hr high. A session high is projected for 10:00am Central.

Pre-market Analysis for 7/18/12

The daily chart shows price yesterday opening just below the daily pivot (though yesterday at this time the chart had shown it opening above the daily pivot - 2nd time I've noticed this in the past week) and making a lower low and higher high. Price found support at the MD and MW MAs during the day and closed near its high. Today price has opened above the daily pivot and has traded down to test the pivot. A MW high is projected for Friday, so any retest of yesterday's lows should find soft support on the weekly pivot or MW MA if we are still on the upside of the MW cycle.

The hourly chart shows price making a 24Hr high in the early hours of Tuesday then a 24Hr low off MD MA support two hours after the NY open. Price rebounded to a higher high but appears to have put in a half-span 24Hr high just before the close. Such shifts usually occur when larger timeframe cycles are turning. If the MW cycle is turning then it is doing so prematurely which has bearish connotations. It is possible that the MD cycle is attempting to turn, as it is in the window to do so, but that it having trouble doing so against the direction of the MW cycle. The next 24Hr low, projected for an hour after the NY open, may help shed more light on the situation. If price finds support for the 24Hr low on the daily pivot (which has acted as support several times overnight), we have likely seen the MD low yesterday and I would expect yesterday's high to be retested by day's end; if the 24Hr low goes beyond projection in time and retests yesterday's lows, we are either still searching for a MD low, or perhaps are just starting the search for a MW low. We are currently in the timeframe to put in a session low, and a session high is projected for a little over an hour into the NY open (roughly the same time as the projected 24Hr low).

Very little clarity from yesterday's trading as the trip down to the blue MD MA made perfect sense but the half-span 24Hr high just hours later tells an entirely different (and bearish) story.  A bounce off the daily pivot shortly after the open and a move above the 5:30am EST candle will be bullish.  A break of the daily pivot and double-bottom of yesterday's low would be less bullish but still fit within the bullish MW cycle scenario.  A substantial break of yesterday's low would indicate to me we are on the downside of the MW cycle and be very bearish.

Bruce's Pre-market Analysis for 7/18/12

The daily chart shows price yesterday opening just below the daily pivot (though yesterday at this time the chart had shown it opening above the daily pivot - 2nd time I've noticed this in the past week) and making a lower low and higher high. Price found support at the MD and MW MAs during the day and closed near its high. Today price has opened above the daily pivot and has traded down to test the pivot. A MW high is projected for Friday, so any retest of yesterday's lows should find soft support on the weekly pivot or MW MA if we are still on the upside of the MW cycle.

The hourly chart shows price making a 24Hr high in the early hours of Tuesday then a 24Hr low off MD MA support two hours after the NY open. Price rebounded to a higher high but appears to have put in a half-span 24Hr high just before the close. Such shifts usually occur when larger timeframe cycles are turning. If the MW cycle is turning then it is doing so prematurely which has bearish connotations. It is possible that the MD cycle is attempting to turn, as it is in the window to do so, but that it having trouble doing so against the direction of the MW cycle. The next 24Hr low, projected for an hour after the NY open, may help shed more light on the situation. If price finds support for the 24Hr low on the daily pivot (which has acted as support several times overnight), we have likely seen the MD low yesterday and I would expect yesterday's high to be retested by day's end; if the 24Hr low goes beyond projection in time and retests yesterday's lows, we are either still searching for a MD low, or perhaps are just starting the search for a MW low. We are currently in the timeframe to put in a session low, and a session high is projected for a little over an hour into the NY open (roughly the same time as the projected 24Hr low).

Pre-market Analysis for 7/17/12

Good morning for Tuesday, July 17th. The daily chart shows price yesterday opening and closing above the daily pivot in a narrow, inside bar day. Today, price has opened above the daily pivot and thus far made a higher low and higher high. A MW high is projected for this Friday.

The hourly chart shows price yesterday morning finding a 24Hr low on a long-tailed bar that tested the weekly pivot but closed on 24Hr MA and MW MA support. The action following that low is slightly muddled as we appear to have shorter and longer than usual session cycles before breaking out above the prior 24Hr high. Whether we have made a 24Hr high amidst the overnight trading range that followed is still undecided as we are currently in the timeframe for a session high to be made. If that session high was made at 7:00am Central, it was a lower session high and indicates that we are now on the downside of the 24Hr cycle. We are overdue for a MD high to be found, but as mentioned yesterday it is not unusual to see it right translate coming out of a MW low. Thus far price continues to exhibit behavior associated with being on the upside of the MD cycle.

I blew it yesterday and bailed on my longs when price broke sharply below the daily pivot, thinking that the MD high was in (despite my belief that it would right-translate).  Now I am in no-man's land as we are that much closer to seeing a MD high put in (which keeps me from being long), yet we have not yet taken out the prior MD high on this move which I expect to happen (which keeps me from being short).  I will likely sit on my hands and wait for a trip down to the blue MD MA before reestablishing longs, unless price makes a sharp run up right at the open, in which case I will assume that we have not yet seen the 24Hr high and that one will be made above the MD high of last Tuesday (marked with down arrow in blue ellipse).