Friday 5/29/2015

The daily chart shows price yesterday making a higher low and lower high, finding support on the MW MA but closing below the weekly pivot. Price today has opened above the daily pivot but is testing the MD MA from above.

Price has been trapped this week between the weekly pivot and the MW MA, two similar-timeframe support/resistance areas that usually work in tandem, not in opposition. Price finding support on the MW MA usually indicates that price is on the upside of the multi-month cycle, while price finding resistance at the weekly pivot usually indicates that price is on the downside of the MM cycle. The MM high is not projected until mid-June, and while a projection carries no significance on its own, I will assume we are on the upside of the MM cycle until price gives a clear signal otherwise.

The multi-week low was projected for yesterday. Tuesday may have been an early MW low, but price has failed to get above the MD MA enough to turn that average upwards so the low may not have been seen.

The hourly chart shows price yesterday making a 24Hr low before noon and a 24Hr high below the weekly pivot just after the NY close. This was a lower, near double-top 24Hr high, which implies the multi-day high has been seen. The multi-day low is projected for early Monday morning trading.

Price is currently trading down to test the gold Session MA. Should the MA provide support for the next session low projected before 11:00am, then it would indicate that the 24Hr low was made several bars ago. With the MD low projected for early Monday, I would expect the 24Hr low to come later than projected, not earlier. Thus I would expect price to double-bottom or take out the lows of several hours ago before the 24Hr low is found.

Thursday 5/28/2015

The daily chart shows price yesterday making a lower high and higher low versus the prior day, finding support on the MW MA but resistance at the MD MA and weekly pivot. Price thus far today has opened above the daily pivot but appears to have found resistance at the MD MA. This is behavior indicative of price being on the downside of the multi-week cycle. The MW low is projected for today, but the low could have already been made Tuesday when price touched the MM MA. Until price can close above the MD MA, however, there is no evidence that the MW low is behind us; it is equally likely that the MW low could extend further in time and that we will retest Tuesday's low before it is seen.

The hourly chart shows price yesterday rising throughout the trading day before finding its 24Hr high near the close under weekly pivot resistance. Price overnight dropped back below the MD MA and has been bouncing between daily pivot and MW MA support and MD MA resistance. We are overdue for the 24Hr low, and it is possible the low was made overnight at the daily pivot. This is behavior indicative of being on the upside of the multi-day cycle, but we are currently overdue for a MD high.

Where price goes from here depends on where we are in the multi-week cycle. If we are still on the downside of the MW cycle, price should break daily pivot and MW MA support and retest Tuesday's low. If we are on the upside of the MW cycle, MW MA support should hold and price will break MD MA and weekly pivot resistance.

Wednesday 5/27/2015

Yesterday saw price take a big hit, dropping down to the MM MA before bouncing to close just below the MW MA. Price today has opened below the daily pivot and is currently testing the daily pivot and MW MA. The blue MD MA has turned decidedly lower, another indication that last Tuesday was a multi-week high. The MW low is projected for tomorrow, but higher timeframe support in the form of the MM MA could see that low put in earlier. It is also possible that the MW low could extend in longer in time or lower in price and visit the monthly pivot before the low is seen. A close above the blue MD MA will be the first evidence that the MW low is in, but a trip down to the monthly pivot this near to the projected date of the MW low will be enough to get me swinging long.

The hourly chart shows price falling throughout the day yesterday before finding its 24Hr low an hour before the NY close. It is possible that a 24Hr high was made three bars later, followed by a half-shifted 24Hr low, but it is too early to say this for sure. What is known is that price is currently testing the daily pivot on the upside of the 24Hr cycle. A multi-day low was projected for yesterday and it is quite possible that yesterday's 24Hr low was also a MD low. The MD high is projected for around noon today, so any rally should be capped by the green MW MA or blue MD MA before price retests yesterday's low.

Tuesday 5/26/2015

As we head into the last trading week of May, the monthly chart shows price having made a higher low and higher high versus last month. Price is overdue for a multi-year high to be seen, and the multi-year low is projected for June. It is possible price made its MY high this month and will now pull back into a MY low, or price could be doing an inversion and will make its high at the time of the projected low. The latter would generally be more bearish as the decline which follows generally lasts a half cycle, meaning seven or eight months of falling prices. In any case, this current rally is long in the tooth and risk is very much heightened, but as long as price continues to find support on the MM MA on a closing basis, the MY cycle continues up.

The weekly chart shows price last week making a higher high and higher low versus the prior week and making an all-time high in the process. Price early in this week's candle opened above the weekly pivot but is currently trading below it. A multi-month high is projected for mid-June, and as long as price continues to find support on the MW MA on a closing basis, the MM cycle continues up.

The daily chart shows price last week having made a very rare Monday low/Tuesday high pattern. While unable to see when this last happened in the S&P futures, I was able to do a quick search of the pattern on the S&P 500 index and found it last happened in August of 2012; interestingly, the index itself did not see the pattern last week, but instead saw a Monday low/Wednesday high pattern, which often marks multi-week highs. Price today has opened above the daily pivot but is currently trading below the daily pivot, weekly pivot, and the MD MA.  

Price closed below the MD MA on Friday and today's action is bending the MD MA downward. This is price action indicative of being on the downside of the multi-week cycle, and I have marked Tuesday's high as a potential MW high. The MW low is projected for Thursday. While we would generally expect price to find support for the MW low on the weekly pivot or the MW MA, lately price has tested the MM MA or monthly pivot before finding support for the MW low.  If we are indeed on the downside of the MW cycle as it appears, the weekly pivot and MD MA should provide resistance to price until the MW is found.

The hourly chart shows price making a 24Hr high yesterday at MD MA resistance, classic behavior on the downside of the multi-week cycle. Price has since made two lower session highs under 24Hr MA resistance is currently testing the prior session low near MW MA support. The 24Hr low is projected for noon, though higher timeframe support such has the MW MA could provide support for this low to be made early. Price is also on the downside of the MD cycle (the MD low is projected for near the close today), but the MW MA could also provide support for this cycle's low as well. 

Friday 5/22/2015

The daily chart shows price yesterday making a lower high, lower low but higher close versus the prior day, closing above the daily pivot and the MD MA. Price today has opened above the daily pivot but is currently testing both the daily pivot and the MD MA. Price is overdue for the multi-week high; this MW high may have been made on Tuesday, but thus far price has given no evidence of being on the downside of the MW cycle. This evidence will come in the form of price breaking below the blue MD MA and turning that MA downward. The MW low is projected for next Thursday, so a move down to the weekly pivot or green MW MA by then should be anticipated.

We enter the last trading day of the week with a rare Monday low/Tuesday high situation, something I cannot recall during the life of this blog (or its prior incarnation). I am unsure whether the expected light pre-holiday trading will help or hurt the odds, but the odds still strongly suggest that price today will either take out Tuesday's high or Monday's low.

The hourly chart has seen the 24Hr cycles lengthen dramatically over the last several days. After making what I have marked as a multi-day low below the MD MA on Wednesday, price moved back above that average and (to my surprise) took out the daily pivot before making its 24Hr high near the NY close. Price has since made two lower session highs, the last one finally leading to a collapse below the 24Hr MA and daily pivot. Price is attempting to find support on the MD MA; if we are still on the upside of the MW cycle, this MA should provide support for the overdue 24Hr MA to be made.

The MD high is not projected until Sunday evening trading, but while the 24Hr cycles have recently lengthened, the MD cycles have recently shortened. This is often a sign that a larger cycle is in the process of turning, and given the overdue MW high it is reasonable to be wary that the MW cycle is finally turning. If so, the weekly pivot and MW MA in the 2107 area are reasonable targets for the decline.

Thursday 5/21/2015

The daily chart shows price yesterday making a lower high and lower low and closing below the daily pivot and on MD MA support. Price today has opened below the daily pivot and is currently trading below the MD MA. This is behavior indicative of price being on the downside of the multi-day cycle. As mentioned yesterday, given that we are overdue for a multi-week high, we must be wary that the multi-day high is also a multi-week high. Unless price can regain the MD MA today, it is likely that Tuesday was the MW high and that price will trade lower over the next several days and test at least the weekly pivot or the green MW MA for support. The MW low is projected for next Thursday (5/28).

Also mentioned yesterday and still in play today is the Monday low/Tuesday high scenario we have thus far; this would be a very rare pattern and as such, the odds greatly favor it not standing by week's end. If Tuesday was indeed a MW high, I would expect price today and/or tomorrow to drop below Monday's low to give us a more normal (for bearish cycles) early week high/late week low. If Tuesday was merely a MD high, then price should find soft support on the MD MA and turn back up to take out Tuesday's high for a more normal (for bullish cycles) early week low/late week high.

The hourly chart shows price yesterday bumping against the underside of the daily pivot and the downsloping white 24Hr MA. This is behavior indicative of price being on the downside of the multi-day cycle. There was a large bullish bar that closed above the daily pivot an hour before the close that was completely erased by the large bearish bar at the NY close. I have marked these bars with a "?" as their presence does not fit well with the usual 24Hr cycles. It certainly seems like the bullish bar should be a 24Hr high, but that would require an intervening 24Hr low which would make for some abnormally long and short cycles. Bars like this happen relatively infrequently and are usually news-related, and I have found it is usually best to just ignore them as aberrations.

Price in after-hours trading dropped below the MD MA and made a 24Hr low, then traded mostly sideways overnight before its recent bounce back up to the 24Hr MA. The current bar has seen price break above the 24Hr MA to test the MD MA. We are in the timeframe to see a 24Hr high, and the MD MA or the daily pivot at 2124 would be logical places for price to find resistance to put in the high, especially if we are still on the downside of the MD cycle. The MD low is projected for after the close today, but could appear earlier or later depending on the status of the MW cycle. Should the daily pivot not provide resistance today, it will mean that yesterday's 24Hr low was also an early MD low.

Wednesday 5/20/2015

The daily chart shows price yesterday making a higher high and higher low but lower close versus Monday. Price today has thus far opened below the daily pivot and made an inside day versus yesteray. We are overdue for a multi-week high to be seen, and the MW low is projected for 5/28. There is no evidence yet of price having made a MW high as price remains above the upsloping MD MA. If price is unable to get above the daily pivot, it would indicate that we have seen a multi-day high; given that the MW high is overdue, we must be open to the idea that a multi-day high may also turn out to be a MW high.

The hourly chart shows a 24Hr high being made yesterday in the pre-NY open trading and a 24Hr low made on daily pivot support near the close. Price in overnight trading has been unable to reclaim the daily pivot, indicating that yesterday's high was likely a multi-day high. The MD high projection was for near the close today, so the earlier-than-projected high carries some bearish concerns that perhaps the overdue topping of the MW cycle forced the early MD high. We are currently overdue for a 24Hr high; if we are indeed on the downside of the MD cycle then daily pivot resistance should hold and price should fall throughout the day in search of a lower 24Hr low. The MD MA is the first place for price to find support, but the weekly pivot at 2107 is also likely. Should we also be on the downside of the MW cycle, the weekly pivot would be very likely to be tested, with the MW MA below it at 2103.50(ish) also a possible testing point.

  

Tuesday 5/19/2015

The daily chart shows price yesterday making a lower low but a higher high and higher (all-time) close. Price today has opened above the daily pivot and thus far has made a higher low and higher high. Price is above the strongly upsloping MD MA, and the green MW MA is starting to turn up from its recent sideways movement. This is all behavior indicative of price being on the upside of the MD, MW and MM cycles.

After the recent May MW low, my commentary frequently said that there is no excuse for price not to launch to new highs. As is typical with the market, price proceeded to meander for the following week; evidently my bearish commentary yesterday was the fuel the market needed to finally lift up out of the sideways chop.

We are slightly overdue for a multi-week high, and the multi-week low is projected for the end of the month. The projection could be far off - we could even see an inversion where price continues up until the end of the May and makes its MW high at the projected date of the MW low. This is why price action is always more important than the projected turn date; it just happens that the two coincide enough to make it worthwhile doing the projections. When the MW top is in, we will see price break below the blue MD MA and turn that average downward while price tests the MW MA for support.

The hourly chart shows price making a 24Hr low in the early a.m. hours on Monday then breaking above the daily pivot shortly after the NY open. My bearish thesis for yesterday was scrapped at that point, as I indicated a move above the daily pivot would force me to reassign the 24Hr highs and lows and designate a MD low somewhere in the action of the past few days. The designations are still not clear, but it is obvious that last Friday was a multi-day high and that the overdue multi-day low was made sometime after that, likely with yesterday's 24Hr low. Price then rose throughout the day, and appears to have done an inversion with the overdue 24Hr high not being made until the time of the projected 24Hr low.

Price is currently trading below the gold Session MA and testing the white 24Hr MA for support. This would appear to confirm the high six bars ago as the 24Hr high. The MD high is projected for after the close Wednesday, but inversions often mark turns in a higher timeframe cycle so it is possible that the overnight 24Hr high was also a MD high. If we are still on the upside of the MD cycle, price will find support for the 24Hr low on the 24Hr MA or the daily pivot. If the MD high has been seen, price will eventually test the blue MD MA or weekly pivot, but given that we are overdue for a 24Hr low, it may require an intervening lower 24Hr high before that test is made.

Monday 5/18/2015

The monthly chart shows price this month has thus far made a higher low and higher (all-time) high. Trading above the monthly pivot and upsloping MM MA, price is behaving as if it still on the upside of the multi-year cycle. We are overdue for a MY high, and the MY low is projected for next month.

The weekly chart shows price last week making a higher low and higher high. Price this week has thus far had a lower high and higher low versus last week; with price being above the weekly pivot and the upsloping green MW MA, it appears that price is on the upside of the multi-month cycle. The MM high is projected for mid-June.

In the daily chart we can see that price last week made a Tuesday low and a Friday high, closing above the upsloping blue MD MA and the weekly pivot which is action indicative of price being on the upside of the multi-week cycle. The MW high is projected for today, but the high could have occurred on Friday or may extend in time past projection. When the MW high is in, price will no longer find support on the weekly pivot or MD MA and will test the MW MA, MM MA, or monthly pivot for support for the MW low projected for the end of this month.

With the MM high due in mid-June there is time for price to see one more higher MW high after the current one. It is important to note however that the MW and MM cycles have been running shorter in length than normal lately as price has been trapped in a tight trading range for quite some time. While Thursday saw a large bullish candlestick to bring price near the April high, Friday's bar that created the new all-time high was an indecisive candle that could be construed as a spinning top. Notice also that the green MW MA is still moving sideways despite the all-time highs on Friday. Price is more susceptible to whipping above and below higher-timeframe MAs when they are moving sideways, so we must be aware that price may not find support there for the next MW low.

The hourly chart shows price making a 24Hr high in overnight trading early Friday morning then forming a 24Hr low late morning under the 24Hr MA but above the daily pivot. Price has spent most of the Sunday overnight trading below the 24Hr MA and daily pivot, indicating that price is on the downside of the multi-day cycle. It is possible that the brief foray above the daily pivot 5-6 hours ago formed a lower 24Hr high. If so, price should make a lower session high near the NY open then trade lower in search of its next 24Hr low. That next 24Hr low is projected for late morning, and the MD low is already overdue, but I expect price to test the weekly pivot or MD MA before the 24Hr (and MD) low is seen. Should price move back above the daily pivot, however, I will have to accept that the 24Hr low (and likely MD low) was already seen.

Friday 5/15/2015

The daily chart shows price yesterday making a higher low and higher high, making an all-time closing high in the process. Price today has opened above the daily pivot near yesterday's close and has thus far made a higher high.

In yesterday's blog it was mentioned that the Monday high/Tuesday low scenario was unlikely to hold through week's end and that the odds favored a higher high by the end of the week. Barring a massive sell-off today, we are now looking at a more normal (and bullish) Tuesday low/Friday high. This variation of the catch-all Monday low/Friday high scenario is typical price action on the upside of the MM and MW cycles. The MW high is projected for Monday; given the recent choppy action and the overdue multi-day high (discussed in hourly chart commentary), the MW high could come today. However, it is always possible that the MW cycle extends in time for one (or more) multi-day cycles.

The hourly chart seems to show a rarity - a trading day yesterday without a 24Hr high or low. Price made its last obvious 24Hr low overnight Wednesday, broke above daily pivot and 24Hr MA resistance in yesterday's pre-market trading, and kept moving up throughout the day and overnight. Should price continue up throughout today I will have to look into assigning a less than convincing intervening 24Hr high and low, but I will deal with that when and if needed. In the meantime, we are overdue for a 24Hr high and multi-day high, and we are overdue for a 24Hr low with a multi-day low projected for near the close today.

Price is currently trading below the gold Session MA. If the 24Hr high is in, then price will drop below the overnight low and likely test the daily pivot at 2109; if the 24Hr high is also the multi-day high, the pullback could extend lower into the area of the blue MD MA or green MW MA. Of course, it is possible that the 24Hr high is not yet in and that the current action is merely a pullback into a higher session low before a surge upward around the NY open. The white 24Hr MA is the most important key today; if it fails to provide support, then a 24Hr high and possible MD high is in and price will test the lower support levels just mentioned.

Thursday 5/14/2015

Price yesterday made a higher high and higher low versus Tuesday but closed relatively unchanged. Price today opened below the daily pivot but is currently trading above it has thus far formed an inside day versus yesterday. Given the upturn in the blue MD MA, I have finally designated last Thursday's low as a multi-week low. The MW high is projected for Monday. We are currently in a Monday high/Tuesday low situation for the week; readers of this blog should by now know that is a situation that is incredibly unlikely to last by week's end. Although price still appears to be trapped in a tight trading range, given that we are on the upside of the MW cycle the odds highly favor a move up today and/or tomorrow to eclipse Monday's high.

The hourly chart shows price yesterday making a Session high shortly after the open that was essentially a double top with the prior session high. The second session high was 3/4 of a point higher, and as such I have marked it as the 24Hr high, though an argument could be made for designating the prior session high as the 24Hr high given its higher close and the fact that the gold Session MA had already flattened out before the second session high. Regardless, price then broke below the white 24Hr MA and found support in the 2092 area of the daily pivot as suggested in yesterday's post. Price broke above the new daily pivot and the 24Hr MA several bars ago; the 24Hr high is either just past projection or is projected for just after the open, depending on which 24Hr high designation from yesterday is used.

A multi-day high was projected for overnight. It is possible that yesterday's 24Hr high was the MD high, in which case today should see a lower or matching 24Hr high. The alternative is that the MD high is extending in time, and price will rally today above yesterday's high before finding the MD high. The latter is more bullish, not only for the obvious reason that price will be higher, but mainly because a lower MD high would indicate that the double top of 5/8 and 5/11 was also a multi-week high. A MD low is projected for tomorrow near the close, which would seem to argue for a bearish conclusion to the Monday high/Tuesday low scenario mentioned above. Higher timeframe cycles trump lower timeframe cycles, however, mainly because higher timeframe support/resistance can cause early turns in the lower timeframe cycles. Given the tight, choppy trading pattern we seem to be stuck in (no more than two consecutive up or down days since the late April MW high), the bulls'  best case may be to make a high for the week today and correct into a (higher) MD low on Friday.

Wednesday 5/13/2015

The daily chart shows price yesterday making a lower high and lower low, testing the MM MA for support and closing at the level of the MW MA and above the weekly pivot. Price today has opened above the daily pivot and made thus far made a higher low and higher high versus yesterday. Despite the intraday exploration lower, the weekly pivot and MD MA are still providing "soft" support on a closing basis. This would seem to indicate that price is on the upside of the multi-week cycle. If today closes near the current level or higher, I will then mark last Thursday as the MW low. The MW high is projected for Monday.

The hourly chart shows price making a 24Hr low yesterday hours before the NY open just above the monthly pivot then rallying into the green MW MA resistance. Price broke through this resistance overnight, which seems to indicate that yesterday's 24Hr low was also a multi-day low. In order to confirm this, we need to see a higher 24Hr low today; we are in the time window for price to make a 24Hr low, and if we are on the upside of the MD cycle, that low should be made no lower than the daily pivot support in the 2092 area. The high four candles ago was quite possibly the 24Hr high. If so, it is likely that the areas marked with "?" will become 24Hr high/lows. A multi-day cycle high is projected for overnight tonight.

Tuesday 5/12/2015 - Let the buyer (and seller) beware.

Both the daily and hourly charts show an extraordinary amount of ambiguity today, which says a lot since price has spent most of the rebirth of this blog chopping back and forth in a triangle pattern. Being a conservative trader, I find it best to reduce both trading size and trading frequency during times like this. Combined with feeling under the weather, I will likely sit the day out and hope price offers more clues as to its intentions by day's end.

Price yesterday made a double top with the prior day and closed below its daily pivot. Price today has opened below its daily pivot and made a lower high and lower low and is now testing the MM MA and monthly pivot for support. This action has turned the blue MD MA back down, though that could change by day's end should prices rally. 

The status of the multi-week cycle is very much in question. It is possible that last Thursday was a multi-week low and we are merely experiencing the downside of the multi-day cycle now. It is also possible that Thursday was the MW low that led straight into an early MW high on Friday. Finally, it is conceivable that Thursday was not the MW low and that Friday was just a strong move on the upside of the multi-day cycle. In the first scenario, price should find support on the MM MA or monthly pivot and take out the Friday/Monday high by week's end. The other two scenarios are both bearish: if Thursday was not the MW low, price should match or take out that low in the next few days as it finds the MW low; if Thursday was a MW low and Friday was an early MW high, this means price should trend lower well into next week on the downside of the MW and likely the MM cycles. Lending credence to the last (and most bearish scenario), the MW MA on the weekly chart (not shown) has flattened out, indicating a possible MM high has been seen.

The hourly chart shows price yesterday making a 24Hr high that exactly matched the prior 24Hr high. This double-topping of 24Hr highs means that one of them was a multi-day high (I'll make the official designation after I see how the next MD cycle plays out). With price on the downside of the MD cycle, I mentioned that I would expect price to test the green MW MA and possible the 2093 area of weekly pivot and (at the time) MD MA support. Price initially found support at the MW MA for several hours before breaking through that support as well as the MD MA and weekly pivot support during overnight trading. Price has found support on the MM MA (shown on daily chart) and has rallied the past few bars to test the gold Session MA in the time window to make a session cycle high.

The status of the 24Hr cycle is uncertain at this point. It is possible that MW MA support put in an early 24Hr low late evening and that the brief close above the MW MA overnight was an early 24Hr high. If this is the case, the gold Session MA should provide resistance for this move and price should trend lower throughout the day as it searches out its MD low projected for near the close today. It is also possible that the 24Hr low was made one bar past projection just four hourly candles ago. If this is the case, price should break through Session MA resistance and test higher timeframe resistance in the form of the MD MA, weekly pivot, 24Hr MA, MW MA, and daily pivot. Lastly, it is possible that the 24Hr low is extending in time and we will see one more lower session cycle low which also forms the 24Hr low.   

Monday 5/11/2015

The monthly chart shows price thus far in May making a higher low and lower high than April- an inside bar. Price is trading above its monthly pivot and above the upsloping MM MA, behavior associated with being on the upside of the multi-year cycle. The multi-year high is overdue, and the multi-year low is projected for June; it is possible that we could see a cycle inversion, where the projected low instead becomes the overdue high. As always, the projections are secondary to price behavior, and thus far price behavior on the monthly chart is bullish.

The weekly chart shows price last week having made a lower high and lower low and having dipped below the MM MA; price bounced, however, and closed above its weekly pivot and the MW MA and made a higher close than the prior week. Price early in this week's candle has opened above the daily pivot and traded in a very tight range. While last week's action was scary as it unfolded, long wicks and tails are far less important than the bodies of the candlesticks; closing above the weekly pivot and MW MA is indicative of price being on the upside of the multi-month cycle.

The daily chart shows price making a Monday high and Thursday low for the week, an oddly bearish scenario for a week that closed above the prior week's close. Price today has opened above the daily pivot and thus far traded in a tight range; today's action, combined with Friday's, has flattened out the blue MD MA and turned the green MW MA slightly upward. This may indicate that Thursday was a multi-week low, but until those two MAs are rising on a closing basis or the April high is eclipsed the MW low is still not confirmed; in any case, this MW low will be lower than the prior MW low. The fact that price is above the MD MA and weekly pivot would seem to indicate that price is on the upside of the multi-week cycle.  If so, it is important that price make a higher MW high so we do not have a lower low/lower high scenario of MW tops which would indicate that the April MW high was also an early MM high.

The hourly chart shows price on Friday making a 24Hr high underneath the blue MD MA and then finding its 24Hr low three bars later above the white 24Hr MA. This higher 24Hr low confirmed the Thursday low as a MD low. Price was then above to surge above the MD MA and weekly pivot and also above the green MW MA before making an earlier than projected 24Hr high. Price has traded sideways since then, recently finding support on the 24Hr MA for what was possibly a 24Hr low. The 24Hr high is projected for noon and we are overdue for the multi-day high; it is possible that Friday's high was the MD high, in which case price today should not see much of a bounce from here before trading back below the 24Hr MA and daily pivot to test the green MW MA or MD MA/weekly pivot confluence in the 2093 area for support for the MD low projected for near the close tomorrow.

Friday 5/8/2015

There will be no blog entry for today.

Thursday 5/7/2015

The daily chart shows price yesterday opening below the daily pivot and making a lower high and lower low versus the prior day, closing just below the monthly pivot. Price today has opened below the daily pivot (and monthly pivot) and thus far made a lower high and lower low. The green MW MA has rolled over and is pointing downward, indicating that we are on the downside of the multi-month cycle. Last Monday's high has been marked as a multi-month high. The multi-week low is projected for tomorrow, so we may get some bounce next week, but the multi-month low is not projected until the end of June, so the "sell in May" crowd should have plenty to talk about by month's end.

The hourly chart shows price yesterday making a 24Hr high below daily pivot resistance then dropping until mid-afternoon. Price spent much of the overnight trading butting against daily pivot and monthly pivot resistance before falling into a lower low. Price is currently above the gold Session MA but has appeared to fail at the daily/monthly pivot resistance yet again. We are overdue for a MD low, and the MD high is projected for overnight tonight. When the MD low has been found, price will finally be able to get above the daily pivot, though its upside may be capped by the green MW MA since we are on the downside of the MM cycle as mentioned above.

Wednesday 5/6/2015

The daily chart shows price yesterday opening above the daily pivot but making a lower high and lower low, closing below the weekly pivot and MW MA. Price today has opened below the daily pivot and has thus been trading between the upsloping MM MA and the downsloping MD MA. Trading below the downsloping MD MA indicates that we are still on the downside of the multi-week cycle; the projected time for the MW low to be made is Friday, and the MM MA and monthly pivot are trying to provide support for this low. It is still possible that Thursday was the MW low, but it is just as likely that price will retest that low.

The green MW MA has flattened out, opening up the possibility that last Monday's MW high was also a MM high. If so, it would have been a higher MM high, which is bullish, but it is concerning that the high was so much earlier than projected. The concern is due to the fact that half-span shifts of a cycle are usually associated with the turn of a larger timeframe cycle. In the case of the MM cycle, half-span shifts could mean the multi-year cycle has finally peaked. It is important to note that there is not yet any confirmation of this being the case, merely a warning sign.

The hourly chart shows price having made a lower 24Hr high yesterday before the NY open and falling sharply through MD MA, MW MA, and weekly pivot support before finding its 24Hr low near the close bell. The overnight action has seen two matching session highs under daily pivot resistance. One of these session highs is also a 24Hr high, but the official designation of which one will be put off until price either breaks above the daily pivot or breaks below the overnight low (which may have been a half-span 24Hr low). The multi-day low was projected for overnight trading last night. A half-span shift of the 24Hr low would support the argument that the MD cycle has turned up, but the resistance provided by the daily pivot would argue otherwise. We are currently in the timeframe for price to make a session low. If the gold Session MA can provide support for a higher session low, it will mean the overnight low was a 24Hr low; a double bottom of 24Hr lows twelve hours apart would mark the bottoming of the multi-day cycle and price should be able to eclipse the daily pivot resistance in today's trading. How price then reacts to the MD, MA, weekly pivot, and MW MA resistance will tell us more about where we are in the MW and MM cycles.

Tuesday 5/5/2015

The daily chart shows price yesterday opening above the daily pivot and making a higher low and higher high. Price thus far today has opened above the daily pivot and traded in a tight range. If price can maintain its current price by day's end it will have succeeded in bending the blue MD MA upward, indicating price is on the upside of the multi-week cycle and that last Thursday's low was a half-shift MW low. We must keep in mind, however, that price could easily sell off by day's end and keep the MD MA flat to down. If the MW has not yet been seen, the market should sell off to make a lower low by the week's end which is the original projection for the MW low.

The hourly chart shows price making a 24Hr high with the 10:00am candle yesterday then correcting largely sideways the remainder of the day and overnight. It is possible that the 24Hr low was made 5 bars ago just under the daily pivot and that the last bar was a slightly higher session low. If so, it is not a good sign that price is having such difficulty getting over daily pivot and white 24Hr MA. The 24Hr high is projected for just after the NY open, and a lower 24Hr high would indicate that we are on the downside of the multi-day cycle. It was mentioned in yesterday's blog that we were overdue for the multi-day high and it was quite possible that the day's 24Hr high would also be a MD high. If so, the resistance of the daily pivot and 24Hr MA should hold and price should move lower to test the 2100 area (MD and MW MAs) or the blue weekly pivot at 2097 before finding its MD low which is projected for overnight/early morning tomorrow.  

Monday 5/4/2015 - (mostly) Bullish pictures for the S&P

The monthly chart shows price this month opening below its monthly pivot and thus far in this young candle having made a higher low and lower high. Last month price made a higher low and higher (all-time) high compared to the March candle after finding support on the MM MA. Everything in this chart shows price on the upside of the multi-year cycle. The MY high was projected for last month, and the MY low is projected for next month.

The weekly chart shows price last week making a higher (all-time) high, a lower low and a lower close versus the prior week. Price this week has thus far opened above its weekly pivot and is trading higher. While the breakout to new highs last week was done on a bearish candlestick, there is nothing bearish about this chart; price is acting as if it is on the upside of the multi-month cycle. The MM high is projected for mid-June.

The daily chart shows price today opening above its daily pivot and thus far making a higher low and higher high versus Friday's candle. Price is back above the MD and MW MAs and above the weekly pivot, behavior indicative of price being on the upside of the multi-day and multi-week cycles. Again this is a bullish picture, but there are finally some concerns that can be raised. Last week saw a bearish Monday high/Thursday low scenario as well as the rolling over of the MD MA and the flattening of the MW MA, meaning that Monday was a MW high. This MW high was a half-span shift versus the projection. The MW low is projected for the end of this week, but it is possible that the MW low saw its own half-span shift and occurred Thursday on monthly pivot and MM MA support. It is too early to say this for sure however, and the even if it were the case, the half-span shifts themselves create a concern that a higher timeframe cycle is rolling over. The sharp close below the MW MA and weekly pivot last week is hard to justify if we are on the upside of the MM cycle, even if those areas of support were reclaimed the following day. Another test of the monthly pivot this week will raise more eyebrows for me, but for now I expect price to lead the MD and MW MAs upward to new highs at the next MW high.

The hourly chart shows price last Friday finding support throughout the day on the gold Session MA until price found its 24Hr high at the blue MD MA. Price corrected sideways overnight, squeezing between Session MA resistance and MD MA support before making its 24Hr low at the 4:00am bar and surging higher above Friday's high. This action confirmed Thursday's low as a multi-day low. We are slightly past projection for the MD high so we must be aware that the next 24Hr high, due near the close of NY trading, could also be the MD high. Meanwhile, price should pull back into the NY open as it searches for a (higher) session low. The gold Session MA should provide support for this low and price should then take out this morning's high. Failure to do so would indicate that the 24Hr high (and possibly the MD high) was seen two candles ago and we should expect price to then test the confluence of support at the 2097-2099 area.  

Friday 5/1/2015 May Day! May Day!

The daily chart show price yesterday opening below the daily and weekly pivots and making a lower high and lower low versus the prior candlestick. Price found support at the area of the MM MA and new May monthly pivot. Yesterday's action succeeded in turning the blue MD MA downward, confirming Monday's high as a multi-week high. This was a higher MW high, which is bullish, but the half-span arrival of the MW high (which was projected for next Wednesday) is bearish. The failure of the green MW MA to support price, and the fact that the MW MA has turned flat, is also bearish.

It appears that even though the triangle pattern was resolved, the directional war between larger timeframe cycles is still at work creating frequent half-span shifts of the MM, MW, and MD cycles. These tug-of-wars between cycles always resolve themselves in the direction of the larger trend. It had appeared that the larger MY cycle had won when price made a new all-time high earlier this week, but it is possible that was just a smaller battle won in an ongoing war. The half-span shifts often come in pairs, so there is no reason why the multi-week low, projected for the end of next week, could not have been made yesterday on MW MA support. Should we close below yesterday's low,the odds of a half-span shift of the MW low diminish and I would expect a steeper decline next week.

The hourly chart shows price declining all yesterday until the 24Hr low was found in the area that would happen to become the new monthly pivot. Price was squeezed overnight between the support of the gold Session MA and the resistance of the daily pivot and white 24Hr MA but was recently able to break above the resistance. We are overdue for the 24Hr high, and both the 24Hr low and the MD low are projected for late afternoon; this would normally mean a down day resembling yesterday is in store, but it is possible that the higher timeframe support has caused the MD low to be made yesterday. If this is the case, we could see the 24Hr high extend in time and price rally to the green MW MA. Should price drop back down below the daily pivot and white 24Hr MA early in today's trading, it would mean the 24Hr high is in and price should spend the rest of the day moving lower in search of its 24Hr low.