Tuesday 6/30/2015

The daily chart shows price yesterday gapping down below the monthly pivot and closing below the June 9th multi-week low. Price thus far today has made a higher low and lower high and is currently trading above its daily pivot. With price below all higher-timeframe support pivots and MAs and the MD MA in a sharp decline, it is obvious that we are on the downside of the multi-week and multi-month cycles. The multi-week low is projected for tomorrow and the multi-month low is overdue, so a turn should be expected any day.  Given this is the last trading day of the month, price would need to regain the MM MA on the monthly chart (not shown) near 2076 or preferably the monthly pivot at 2091.25 to erase any bearish signal on the monthly chart.  The first target is only ~10 points above, the latter a more daunting 25+ points.  Can price do it?  Certainly.  Will it? Odds are against it, but the market is capable of anything.

The hourly chart shows price yesterday making a 24Hr high at the declining 24Hr MA and then declining the remainder of the day to make its 24Hr low just before the close. Price has since drifted up and is currently trading at the daily pivot. A 24Hr high is due shortly after the NY open, but if we are still on the downside of the MD cycle then it is possible the high was already seen two bars prior. The ability to clear the daily pivot decisively will mean that yesterday was a multi-day low and we should then visit the blue MD MA today or tomorrow.