Monday 6/15/2015

Halfway through the month, the monthly chart shows price having made a lower high and higher low versus the May candlestick. Price is currently trading below its monthly pivot and is testing the MM MA for support. With two weeks left in the bar anything can happen, so it is too early to draw any conclusions about the multi-year cycle from the current bar. We are in the timing area for the projected multi-year low to be seen, however, so it important to watch for signs that price has made its MY high and is declining to find its MY low. Should price close this month below its monthly pivot and MM MA, that would be such a sign.

The weekly chart shows price last week having made a lower high and lower low versus the prior candlestick, closing below the green MW MA. Price early in this week's candle has opened below the monthly and weekly pivots and the declining MW MA, behavior indicative of being on the downside of the multi-month cycle. We are overdue for the projected multi-month low. When that low is in, price will close above the MW MA and turn that MA upward.  

The daily chart shows price last week making a MW low on Tuesday and a possible MW high on Thursday. Friday's decline and today's lower open could just be the downside of the multi-day cycle, but price needs to turn higher today or tomorrow to regain the MD MA for me to believe this is merely a MD cycle decline. The failure of the MD MA or weekly pivot to support price indicates that it is more likely that we are yet again on the downside of the MW cycle. Last week's lower MW high (if it is) would also indicate that we are on the downside of the MM cycle, which confirms the what we are seeing on the weekly chart.

The next MW low is not projected until the first week in July, so price has plenty of time remaining to take out last week's low. The multi-month cycle has the ability to turn the multi-week cycle early, of course, but with price already below the monthly pivot at MM MA, there is a lack of obvious higher timeframe support levels to cause the turn. It is possible that the overdue MM low will appear as a half-shift MW low, would means we could see the MW low next Monday rather than early July. Even in that case, I would expect last week's low to be taken out on the downside.  

The hourly chart shows price making a multi-day high in the form of a head-and-shoulders pattern then breaking below the MW MA, the monthly pivot, and finally the MD MA/weekly pivot confluence, which hints at price being on the downside of not only the MD cycle, but the MW and MM cycles as well (as discussed above). We are overdue for the MD low to be made, but the MD cycle is often at the whims of the MW and MM cycles, so the projection in these cases is meaningless. Like last Tuesday's low, we will know the MD low is in when price is able to break above the white 24Hr MA and turn that MA upward as price seeks out its next MD high. The 24Hr low is not projected until after the close, so I would expect the gold Session MA to provide resistance for price throughout the trading day.