Monday 6/1/2015

The monthly chart shows price having made an all-time closing high in May as price continued to ride on top the support of a rising MM MA. This is behavior indicative of price being on the upside of the multi-year cycle. This month is the projection for the multi-year low. It is possible that we will see an inversion of the cycle, where we instead see a MY high at the time of the projected low. It is also possible that May saw the MY high, or that the MY high will extend even further out in time. For now, we can just go by price action, and as long as price continues to trade above its monthly pivot and MM MA we must realize that price is still on the upside of its MY cycle.

The weekly chart shows price last week having made a lower high and lower low, closing below the weekly pivot and the MW MA. This is behavior indicative of price being on the downside of the multi-month cycle. The MM high is projected for next week, but it is possible that the MM high was made two bars early. I have labelled that bar with a "?" for now, as I still need to see the MW MA turn down (or at least flatten out) as evidence that the MM high is behind us. With the multi-year high so overdue, the MM high carries even more significance than normal as the odds increase that the next MM high will also be a MY high.

Because the low-to-low MM cycles have been running shorter than normal lately, the MM low is actually already overdue. A more normal cycle would see the low due late June. The monthly pivot and/or the MM MA should provide support for this low on a closing basis if we are still on the upside of the MY cycle.

The daily chart shows price with a rare occurrence- Tuesday saw both the high and low of the holiday-shortened trading week. The rest of the week was not without volatility, but all of the whipsawing was contained within Tuesday's trading range. Price early in this candle has opened below the daily pivot but is currently trading high to test the weekly pivot, MW MA and MD MA. With price trading below these key support/resistance areas, it is obvious that price is on the downside of the multi-week cycle. The MW low was projected for last Thursday, but thus far there is no evidence that the low has been seen. When the low is in, price will close above the MD MA and turn that average upward.

The hourly chart shows price making a multi-day low early in Friday's trading but being unable to make much headway for the rest of the trading day. Price has whipsawed around the daily pivot and 24Hr MA in overnight/early hours trading, making the designations of a 24Hr high and possible low more difficult. The large candle one hour ago closed above the daily pivot and 24Hr MA and would seem to indicate that the low two candles before was a 24Hr low. Price is still finding resistance against the blue MD MA, which is indicative of being on the downside of the MW cycle. As mentioned above, we are overdue to see the MW low, and we are also just slightly overdue for a MD low. If we need to see another MD cycle before the MW low is found, then price will be unable to break above MD MA resistance and will likely trade down to sideways until the next MD low is seen (projected for this Thursday). If the MW low is behind us, price should break through MD MA resistance and test the MW MA from below.