Thursday 6/18/2015

The daily chart shows price yesterday making a higher low and higher high but slightly lower low versus Tuesday's candle. Thus far today price has opened above the daily pivot and made a higher low and lower high than yesterday. Price has been whipsawing back and forth around the MM MA and monthly pivot lately, making it difficult to determine where we are in the larger timeframe cycles. Thus far I am sticking with my preferred designation of last week being a multi-week low and this week's retest being a steep pullback of the multi-day cycle. If this is the case, price should continue to move higher until it finds its MW high (which was projected for last week). Price taking out last week's high will help confirm this, while price reversing to take out last week's MW low would indicate that last week's high (marked with a "?") was a lower MW high and that this week's rally is merely the upside of the multi-day cycle.

The hourly chart shows price yesterday trading down throughout the day before finding support for its 24Hr low on the daily pivot and rocketing up to its 24Hr high in the same bar due to volatility around the Federal Reserve decision to keep rates unchanged. Price then fell back overnight to retest yesterday's low where it found support for a half-span 24Hr low. Price is currently testing yesterday's highs on the upside of the 24Hr cycle, with a 24Hr high projected for late afternoon.

Much like the daily chart, the hourly chart shows price whipsawing around the monthly pivot and the green MW MA, making it difficult to determine where we are in the various cycles. Price does appear to be finding soft support yesterday and today on the weekly pivot, which would indicate that we are on the upside of the multi-month cycle, but until price can break to the upside and turn the MW MA upward I am hesitant to make that declaration based on two days of sideways price action. With the current trading above the daily pivot and 24Hr MA, it appears we are on the upside of the multi-day cycle; the MD high is past due, it is possible yesterday's 24Hr high or today's yet-to-be-seen 24Hr high will also be the MD high.