Friday 6/26/2015

The daily chart shows price yesterday making a lower high and lower low, closing below the MM MA and at weekly pivot support. Price thus far today has made a lower low and lower high and tested the monthly pivot. The action of the last two days has turned the blue MD MA downward and confirmed that we are on the downside of the multi-week cycle. A MW low is projected for next Wednesday, but it is possible that higher timeframe support such as the MW MA, weekly pivot or monthly pivot could see this low put in earlier. The fact that all three of these areas are concentrated in the 2091-2093 area should mean an even greater likelihood of price finding support for a turn of the MW cycle. When the MW low is seen, price should then rally back above the blue MD MA and turn that average back upward. It is then my expectation that price will reach new all-time highs in July.

The hourly chart shows price yesterday making its 24Hr high under the blue MD MA and having a trend day down as predicted yesterday. Price made its 24Hr low overnight at the monthly pivot and has rallied up to the green MW MA. We are in the timeframe for price to see its 24Hr high, and the MW MA would be a logical place for this to occur. 

With a 24Hr low projected for well after the close, we could be looking at another trend down day if we are still on the downside of the MD cycle. It is possible, however, that yesterday's 24Hr low was also a multi-day low. If so, I would expect price to either move sideways all day and eventually find a higher 24Hr low; there is also the possibility that price will make a half-span 24Hr low late morning then move higher throughout the day. The key will be to watch the gold Session MA (a 6 period moving average of median price) - should price trade below it and flatten the average out, it will indicate that the 24Hr high is in. If price is then able to get back above the Session MA and turn it back upward we will know that an early 24Hr low was seen and price should rally until the end of the day.