Note: The following commentary was written prior to the market open but posting was delayed due to cable outage. The hourly chart picture was taken pre-open as well, but the daily chart picture was taken just before posting.
The daily chart shows price yesterday making a
lower low and lower high but closing above the prior day's close while forming a
"hammer" candlestick. Price today has thus far opened above the daily pivot and
is currently testing the MD MA from below. Until price can get above the MD MA
and turn it upward, there is no evidence that we have put in a multi-week low,
but given that we are overdue for the MW low, it is reasonable to keep an open
mind that yesterday was the MW low. If so, price should soon test higher
timeframe resistance in the 2100 area where there will soon be a confluence of
the weekly pivot and the MM and MW MAs. Given the overdue nature of the MW
high, it will be interesting to see if price can eclipse that area for the next
MW high. On the other hand, should price falter at its current level and fail
to penetrate the blue MD MA, it leaves open the possibility that the MW low
still lies ahead of us.
The hourly chart shows price making a 24Hr and
multi-day low yesterday morning before the NY open. Price was then able to get
above the white 24Hr MA and has found support on that MA several times as price
has moved higher. This is the behavior of price on the upside of the MD cycle
as I described in yesterday's commentary on the hourly chart. Price should now
test the declining blue MD MA before finding its MD high which itself is
overdue. If price can eclipse the MD MA before finding its MD high then find
support on the MD MA for its next MD low, then it will confirm Tuesday's low as
the overdue MW low as well.
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