Tuesday 6/16/2015

The daily chart shows price yesterday making a lower high and lower low and closing beneath the MD, MW and MM MAs and the weekly and monthly pivots. Price today opened above the daily pivot but has thus far made a lower high and lower low. This is behavior indicative of price being on the downside of the multi-week and multi-month cycles.

We are in the timeframe (actually overdue from projection) to see a multi-month low. A multi-week low is not projected until the first week of July. While the MM cycle could easily turn and put in the MW low early, usually this happens either in a half-span shift (which would still take the MW low out to next week) or on higher timeframe support; we have no higher timeframe support left on the weekly or daily charts, leaving us only last week's low just one point away, and the May MM low as possible support areas.

The hourly chart shows price finding continual resistance at the white 24Hr MA, indicating price remains on the downside of the multi-day cycle. We are overdue for the MD low, and in fact the projection for the next MD high is for near the close today. It was mentioned yesterday that the MD cycle is capable of being muted if it is attempting to go against the direction of the higher timeframe MW and MM lows and that is possibly what is happening here.

The 24Hr low may have been made several bars ago, as price has managed to close above the gold Session MA and is currently testing the 24Hr MA and daily pivot. The 24Hr highs and lows are starting to shrink from their normal duration which usually happens during cycle turns. This could merely be the MD cycle trying to turn against the downward force of the MW and MM cycles, or it could be a conflict between the MW and MM cycles. For now, price must first attempt to make a decisive MD low, and we will know that low is in when price is able to close above 24Hr MA/daily pivot resistance and rise up to test the blue MD MA/weekly pivot confluence area near 2084.