Thursday 6/4/2015

The daily chart shows price yesterday opening above the daily pivot and making a higher low and higher high versus Tuesday. Price closed above the MD MA, the MW MA and the weekly pivot, providing the first sign that perhaps the overdue multi-week low had been made. Unfortunately, price action today has traded back below the weekly pivot and MD and MW MAs and is once again testing the MM MA and monthly pivot for support. Tuesday's low remains a candidate for the MW low, but thus far price is not behaving like the low is behind us. When the low has been seen, price will trade above the blue MD MA and turn that average upward, using it as support for its lows on the way toward making its next MW high.

The hourly chart shows price yesterday finding resistance for its 24Hr high at the green MW MA. Price overnight has traded back below the weekly pivot and is once again testing the monthly pivot. The MW MA acting as resistance is indicative of being on the downside of the multi-month cycle, something that has been mentioned as a possibility when discussing the weekly chart but that has thus far had too little conclusive evidence supporting the idea. While still not definitive, the continuing inability to trade above the MW MA is hard to ignore.

Price is overdue for a 24Hr low, and that low may have been seen several hours ago when price tested the MM MA (not shown on the hourly chart) and the monthly pivot. If price makes a higher session low in the next hour or two, it will confirm the 24Hr low is in. Yesterday's high was likely a multi-day high, so I would expect price to find resistance at the white 24Hr MA/blue MD MA confluence area for its next 24Hr high projected for near the NY open.