Wednesday 7/1/2015

The monthly chart is usually reserved for Monday posts, but given the close of the June candle and the start of the July candle and the importance of what they may be telling us, it is being posted again today. The June candle made a lower high and lower low versus May and closed below the monthly pivot and the MM MA. Price early in the July bar has opened below the monthly pivot and the MM MA and has tested those levels from below. This is behavior indicative of price being on the downside of the multi-year cycle. It is very important to note that the behavior of a single candlestick can only serve as a warning of what may be happening, and that price action later in this month could completely erase the bearish signals. However, when we are overdue for a MY high, it is wise to pay attention to warning signs. Should we be on the downside of the MY cycle, a 100 point drop to the MY MA would be the minimum expectation for a decline.

The daily chart shows price yesterday making a doji candle with a lower high and slightly lower low versus the prior day. Price today has opened below the daily pivot but made a higher low and higher high and is has tested the blue MD MA. Today is the projection for the multi-week low; it is possible that yesterday was the MW low, but it is just as likely that the MW low has yet to be seen. Until price can close above the MD MA and turn that average upward, this bounce could merely be the upside of a multi-day cycle. It may take several days to know for sure where we are in the MW cycle, but the interaction between price and the MD MA will give us our earliest clues.

The hourly chart shows price making a slightly lower 24Hr low early afternoon yesterday and price overnight finally broke above the daily pivot and 24Hr MA and rode the gold Session MA higher. We have taken out yesterday's 24Hr high, indicating yesterday's low was also a multi-day low. We are overdue for a multi-day high and are in the timeframe to see a 24Hr high. It is possible that the 24Hr high was already seen several bars ago, but I expect the MD MA to be touched before the MD high is seen.