Monday 6/22/2015

The monthly chart shows price trading above the monthly pivot and the MM MA, behavior indicative of being on the upside of the multi-year cycle. While we are overdue to see a MY high, until price trades below the monthly pivot and MM MA on a closing basis the trend remains bullish.

The weekly chart shows price last week having made a higher low and higher high, closing above the weekly and monthly pivots and the MW and MM MAs. Price this week has thus far opened above its weekly pivot and is retesting last week's high. With today's action, the green MW MA has turned up, indicating that the multi-month low is behind us and we are on the upside of the MM cycle. Should the week close with the MW MA maintaining that upward slope, I will officially mark two bars ago as the MM low. The next MM high is projected for the first week of July, so price has plenty of time to reach new all-time highs. Failure to do so in the next few weeks will be a bearish warning signal that will be discussed if the time comes

The daily chart shows price last week making a Tuesday low and Thursday high, a variant of the generic bullish ML/FH scenario discussed frequently in this blog. Price action has turned the blue MD MA upward, indicating that we are on the upside of the multi-week cycle. We are overdue for the projected MW high, and the next MW low is projected for July 1st. A lower MW high would not be overly bearish, as long as the next MW low is a higher MW low than the one earlier this month. A lower MW low would confirm that the May MW high was also a MM high, but the extent of the decline and the rolling over of the MW MA already indicated this. A higher MW low would likewise confirm that the early June MW low was also a MM low, and price would then be expected to make new all-time highs.

The hourly chart shows price appearing to have made a triple top in the 2118-2119 area. We are currently overdue for a 24Hr high as well as a multi-day high. It is possible price made its 24Hr high five bars ago; a lower Session high due near the NY open would confirm this. If so, it would be a lower 24Hr high and confirm Thursday's 24Hr high as the multi-day high. We would then expect price to test the 24Hr MA or the daily pivot area for its 24Hr low which is projected for after the NY close. If we are still on the downside of the MD cycle, those areas should give way and price should test the blue MD MA or weekly pivot.