Monday 6/8/2015

The monthly chart shows price thus far in June having made a lower high and higher low, opening above the monthly pivot but currently trading below it. Price is still trading above the upsloping MM MA. We are overdue for a multi-year high, and this month is the projection for the multi-year low. When price trades below the MM MA and bends the average downward, we will know we are on the downside of the MY cycle. Until then, price should be expected to ride the MM MA support to new highs.

The weekly chart shows price last week making a lower high and lower low, closing under the monthly pivot and on the MM MA. Price early in this week's candle has opened below its weekly pivot and that has turned the green MW MA lower; should the weekly candle close with the MW MA pointing downward, we can officially designate the mid-May high as a multi-month high. Given the shorter low-to-low cycle lengths that the high-to-high cycle lengths, we are actually past the projected date for the multi-month low. Whenever the MM low is made, the MW MA will cease to act as resistance and price will be able to trade above this average and turn its slope upward.

The daily chart shows price trading below the MM MA and below the confluence of the monthly and weekly pivots in the 2099 area. We are overdue for the MW low, and the MW high is projected for Wednesday. When the MW low is in, price will close above the blue MD MA resistance and turn that average upward. It will then be important to see where price makes its next multi-week high. A lower MW high means that the May MW high was also a multi-month high. Given the overdue nature of the multi-year high, we must be wary that any MM high is also a MY high.

The hourly chart shows price continually finding resistance at the levels of the daily pivot (white crosses) or the white 24Hr MA. This is what price looks like on the downside of the multi-day and multi-week cycles. It is possible that a 24Hr high was made just four bars ago at daily pivot resistance, and unless there has been another 24Hr low after the Friday morning low, then we are overdue for a 24Hr low to be seen. We are also overdue for the MD low to be seen, so it is likely that the next 24Hr low will also be the MD low, or that Friday will prove to have been the MD low. Given that we are also overdue for the MW low, it is likely that the MD low will also be a MW low. Given the logic flow, we can see that swing traders should be preparing for a sizable rally soon. Before this rally can start however, price needs to close above daily pivot resistance and show that the MD low is behind us.