Friday 5/29/2015

The daily chart shows price yesterday making a higher low and lower high, finding support on the MW MA but closing below the weekly pivot. Price today has opened above the daily pivot but is testing the MD MA from above.

Price has been trapped this week between the weekly pivot and the MW MA, two similar-timeframe support/resistance areas that usually work in tandem, not in opposition. Price finding support on the MW MA usually indicates that price is on the upside of the multi-month cycle, while price finding resistance at the weekly pivot usually indicates that price is on the downside of the MM cycle. The MM high is not projected until mid-June, and while a projection carries no significance on its own, I will assume we are on the upside of the MM cycle until price gives a clear signal otherwise.

The multi-week low was projected for yesterday. Tuesday may have been an early MW low, but price has failed to get above the MD MA enough to turn that average upwards so the low may not have been seen.

The hourly chart shows price yesterday making a 24Hr low before noon and a 24Hr high below the weekly pivot just after the NY close. This was a lower, near double-top 24Hr high, which implies the multi-day high has been seen. The multi-day low is projected for early Monday morning trading.

Price is currently trading down to test the gold Session MA. Should the MA provide support for the next session low projected before 11:00am, then it would indicate that the 24Hr low was made several bars ago. With the MD low projected for early Monday, I would expect the 24Hr low to come later than projected, not earlier. Thus I would expect price to double-bottom or take out the lows of several hours ago before the 24Hr low is found.