Monday 11/30/15

The monthly chart shows price with one day remaining in November's candle having made a higher high and higher low versus October.   Price continues to trade above the monthly and yearly pivots and the MM and MY MAs, but has not yet surpassed the May/July highs.  While it certainly appears that the August low was a multi-year low, we have not yet seen a definitive higher multi-month low nor the upturn of the MM MA that would confirm this; it is possible that price will first confirm we are on the upside of a new MY cycle by making a new all-time high.

The weekly chart shows price last week making a higher low and higher high but closing little-changed versus the prior week's candle.   Price early in this week's candle has opened above the daily pivot and that action has turned the MW MA upward.  Should this be maintained by week's end, the upturn of the MW MA will confirm the low of two weeks ago as a higher MM low; as mentioned above, this would confirm that the August low was a MY low and that we are now on the upside of a new MY cycle.

The daily chart shows price trading mostly sideways last week, but finding support on the MW MA.  This MA has flattened out, indicating that the multi-week high may already have seen.  A MW low is projected for 12/8.   It is possible that this sideways consolidation is a correction in time rather than price, which would be a sign of bullish strength, but with over a week left before the projected MW low and price still in the sideways trading range it would be foolish to assume that we will not see a break lower.   If we are on the upside of the MY and MM cycles, however, the weekly pivot could easily provide support for the MW low to be seen; thus a move higher out of this trading range could very well mean that we have seen an early MW low and are now on the upside of a new MW cycle.

The hourly chart shows price on Friday making a 24Hr low on the "soft" support of the MD MA followed instantly by a 24Hr high under 24Hr MA resistance.  This lower 24Hr high confirms the Thursday high as a multi-day high. We then saw a higher, half-span 24Hr low in overnight trading which confirms the Friday low as a multi-day low.

Price is in the timeframe to see a Session low; support for this low should be found on the gold Session MA.   With a 24Hr high not due until noon, we should see price bounce off the Session MA and trade higher in search of its 24Hr high.  Should the Session MA fail to provide support and price instead trades below the daily pivot/24Hr MA, we must be open to the idea that Friday's high was also a MW high and that we are seeing an early 24Hr high (and possibly an early MD high).  In that scenario, price would normally be expected to break lower to retest the weekly pivot and possibly the MW MA before the projected 12/8 MW low.