Monday 11/9/2015

The monthly chart shows price in October having made a higher low and higher high and closing above all long-term MAs and pivots.  Price in November has opened above its daily pivot and has thus far made a higher low and higher high versus last month.  This behavior would indicate that price made a multi-year low in August and is now on the upside of the multi-year cycle.   If so, the odds strongly favor a new all-time high this month or next.

The weekly chart shows price last week making a higher low and higher high as price continued on the upside of the multi-month cycle.   Price early in this week's candle has opened above its weekly pivot and is currently little changed from last week's close.

This week is the projection for the multi-month low, and there is no evidence that we have seen the MM high yet.  Until price can break below the MW MA and turn that average lower, we must assume that price will continue higher.   As mentioned in the last two Monday blog entries, I find it likely that price will reach new all-time highs before starting a correction into its multi-month low.

The daily chart shows price last week with a rare Monday low/Tuesday high scenario.  While we ended the week on a three-day losing streak, price continued to find support on the MD MA, indicating that we are still on the upside of the multi-week cycle.    Price today has thus far opened above its daily pivot and is little changed versus Friday's close but is currently trading slightly below the daily pivot, the MD MA and the new weekly pivot.

We are overdue to see a multi-week high, so much so that we are now also overdue to see the multi-week low.   It is possible that last Tuesday was the MW high, as the MD MA has started to flatten out, but price shows a reluctance to do anything more than correct sideways.  Given the overdue nature of the multi-month high, I would have expected the next MW high to also be a MM high, but the current behavior seems to indicate that price is correcting sideways into its MW low while still on the upside of the MM cycle.   If so, I would expect one more MW high to be seen before price finds its MM high and corrects more sharply in search of the MM low.  In this scenario, new all-time highs should be seen before Thanksgiving.

The hourly chart shows price on Friday making a 24Hr high at daily pivot resistance and falling into its 24Hr low just two bars later.  Price was able to regain the MD MA by the close of trading Friday but appears to have made a lower half-span 24Hr high in overnight trading and is currently trading back below the MD MA as well as the new weekly pivot.  This behavior seems to indicate that price may be on the downside of the MW cycle.

We are slightly overdue for a MW low to be seen, and slightly overdue for a MD low to be seen as well, so it is possible that Friday's low will prove to be a MD and MW low.  A 24Hr low is projected for noon today, so we will see if price will attempt to retest or take out Friday's low by then.   If price is able to trade above the 24Hr MA/daily pivot, it will indicate that the 24Hr low has been seen and also indicate that Friday's low was a MD low and possibly a MW low.