Monday 11/23/15

The monthly chart shows that we have seen a higher high and higher low in November versus last month's bar.  Price opened the month above its monthly pivot (white dot found above, below or within each candlestick), tested and found support at that pivot, and has traded higher. This is behavior indicative of price being on the upside of the multi-year cycle, which hints at the August low being a multi-year low.   In order to confirm this, however, we need to see either a higher multi-month low on the weekly chart, or we need to see the pink multi-month MA turn higher; the MM MA is the backbone of the multi-year cycle, providing support for price on the upside of the MY cycle and resistance to price on the downside of the MY cycle.  If we are indeed on the upside of the MY cycle, the next MY high is not projected until August of next year.

The weekly chart shows price last week making a lower low and lower high but sharply higher close than the prior week.  Price found support on the MM MA and monthly pivot in the timeframe for a multi-month low to be seen and then rocketed higher.  Early in this week's candlestick we have opened above the weekly pivot and the green MW MA, behavior indicative of being on the upside of the multi-month cycle.

If price can take out the prior MM high from three bars ago and turn the green MW MA higher, it would confirm last week as a MM low; the MW MA is the backbone of the multi-month cycle, providing support to price on the upside of the MM cycle and resistance to price on the downside of the MM cycle.   If price is on the upside of the multi-month cycle, it indicates that last week saw a higher multi-month low, which would in turn confirm the prior August MM low as a multi-year low.  The next MM high is not projected until the last week of January.

The daily chart shows price last week making a Monday low and Friday high, a typical scenario when price is on the upside of the multi-week cycle.  Monday's low found support on the monthly pivot and MM MA and by Friday price had climbed above blue MD MA and turned that average upward, indicating that price is on the upside of the multi-week cycle and that Monday's low was a MW low; the MD MA is the backbone of the multi-week cycle- you can see how it provided resistance to price as it searched out its multi-week low, and it now provides support to price as it searches for its next MW high.  The MW high is projected for this Wednesday, though if last week was also the multi-month low, the MW high could extend in time.

All of the talk thus far has leaned toward the bullish theory that we are on the upside of the MY, MM and MW cycles. This is because the behavior of price seems to indicate this on the various charts. But it is important to remember that it has not yet been confirmed that we are on the upside of the MY cycle, and it has not yet been confirmed that we are on the upside of the MM cycle.  While it has been confirmed that we are on the upside of the MW cycle, price could easily put in a lower MW high between now and the projection (Wednesday) and turn sharply lower.  While I do not believe this is the most likely scenario, a move below last week's MW low would force me to reevaluate.

The hourly chart shows price making a higher 24Hr high late Friday morning, then finding support on the white 24Hr MA several bars later for a 24Hr low.  Price has been unable to surpass Friday's high in overnight/pre-market trading, and now appears to be finding resistance at the 24Hr MA; this would indicate that Friday was a multi-day high and we are now on the downside of the MD cycle. 

The daily cycle is unclear, as it is likely that we saw a lower 24Hr high somewhere in the overnight/pre-market trading.  With a 24Hr low not expected until the close and with price being on the downside of the MD cycle, today should see price fall throughout the day.   I would expect a move down to the MD MA/MW MA confluence area at 2067 today or tomorrow; this area should provide support for price to find a MD low.

Since I talked in prior paragraphs about certain MAs being the "backbone" of certain cycles, I might as well continue with the hourly chart.  The hourly chart is where we determine where we are within the multi-day and daily cycles.   The white 24Hr MA and the daily pivot are the backbone of the MD cycle.  Price will find support for its 24Hr lows at either the 24Hr MA or the daily pivot when price is on the upside of the MD cycle; when we are on the downside of the MD cycle price will find resistance for its 24Hr highs under the 24Hr MA or daily pivot.  The gold Session MA is in turn the backbone of the 24Hr cycle, providing support for price on the way to the 24Hr high and resistance to price on the way to the 24Hr low.