Thursday 11/12/15

Price yesterday made a higher low and higher high versus Tuesday's candle but closed lower after finding resistance at the weekly pivot.  With price today taking out Monday's low, it is obvious that price is continuing on the downside of the multi-week cycle.  We are overdue for a MW low to be seen, and the longer overdue and the further below the weekly pivot and MW MA price gets makes it more likely that price is also on the downside of the multi-month cycle. There is still a decent chance that the MM high has not been seen yet, but price needs to find a MW low and regain the MD MA in the next couple of days if we are to believe that price is still on the upside of the MM cycle.

The hourly chart shows price making its 24Hr (and multi-day) high under MD MA resistance before the NY open yesterday and falling throughout the day.  Price found its 24Hr low just after the close and rallied overnight to make an early 24Hr high under 24Hr MA/daily pivot resistance. The next 24Hr low is not projected until after the close, so we could have another trend day down on the downside of the daily, multi-day, and multi-week cycles.

We have traded just below Monday's MD low, indicating that price is still searching for its overdue MW low.  Price is already below the weekly pivot and MW MA which hints that we are also on the downside of the multi-month cycle.  If so, price would be expected to test the monthly pivot and MM MA around 2017.  If we are still on the upside of the MM cycle then I would expect a multi-day low to be found today or tomorrow which will also be a multi-week low. While the steeper correction to the monthly pivot would obviously provide a better buy point, I believe that the next MD low will provide an excellent opportunity to get long for a move to all-time highs.