Monday 11/2/2015

The monthly chart shows October having made a higher low and higher high versus September's candle and closing strongly above all relevant pivots and MAs.  Price has opened the November candle above its new monthly pivot.  All of this is action indicative of price being on the upside of the MY MA; we have not yet seen a higher multi-month low to confirm this, but that is only because price refuses to correct into a multi-month low.

The weekly chart shows price last week having made a higher low, higher high and higher close versus the prior week as price continues on the upside of the MM cycle.  This is the tenth weekly candle since the August low; we are overdue for price to make a MM high, and a MM low is projected for next week's candle.  This rally is similar to that which was seen after the 2011 multi-year low (shown below the weekly chart), which saw price rise for 11 weeks after the MY low before seeing its MM high.  This chart should emphasize to people that while nimble shorts may be able to make money into the eventual decline into the MM low, the real money will be made going long after price finds that low.

The daily chart shows price last week making a Tuesday low and Friday high, normal bullish action on the upside of the MW cycle.  Price thus far today has opened below its daily pivot and has made a lower high and lower low versus Friday, indicating that price is likely on the downside of the multi-day cycle.  

A MW cycle high is projected for Wednesday, but until the MD MA ceases to provide support we must assume that the MW high has yet to be seen.  It should also be noted that due the extreme right-translation of the last MW cycle, the MW low is projected for just one day later on Thursday.  Since it is likely that the next MW high will also be a MM high, however, I would expect the MW low to extend in duration.

The hourly chart shows price making a 24Hr (and multi-day high) early Friday A.M. and falling throughout the day. Price appears to have made a 24Hr low in overnight trading below weekly pivot and MD MA support, but has quickly traded back above those levels, indicating that the overnight low may also have been a multi-day low.

We are overdue for a 24Hr high to be seen, and the daily pivot would be a logical place for that high to be seen, especially if we are still on the downside of the MD cycle.   If we are instead on the upside of the MD cycle, price could eclipse this level before making its MD high, then find support at the pivot or 24Hr MA as price corrects back into its 24Hr low.