Friday 11/6/2015

The daily chart shows price yesterday making a lower low and lower high but slightly higher close versus Wednesday's candle.  Price today has thus far made a slightly lower low and is trading below the MD MA.  Tuesday was definitely a multi-day high, but it is still uncertain whether it was also a multi-week high and possibly even the overdue multi-month high.

The MD MA is starting to flatten out with today's action (though that could easily change by the close if price rallies), a hint that the MW high has been seen.  While a slight bend in the MA was all that the downturn of the last MW cycle could muster, I would expect a more normal MW cycle this time which would involve price testing the weekly pivot or MW MA along with  a full downturn in the MD MA.  Should price close today at the low of the week and below the MD MA, the odds will be high that the MW high is behind us.

The hourly chart shows price yesterday making a 24Hr high before the NY open and dropping sharply into its 24Hr low just 3 hourly bars later.  Price found support on the MD MA for that low, but was unable to reclaim the 24Hr MA during the rest of the day.  Overnight trading saw a squeezing of price between 24Hr MA/daily pivot resistance and MD MA support, until the strong payrolls number saw a large drop which took out yesterday's low.

Large news-related swings often distort the hourly and daily cycle, and I often find that I have to ignore their large wicks in determining 24Hr highs and lows.   It appears that price saw a 24Hr high this candle, exactly 24 bars after yesterday's high, but I would like to see another hourly bar or two play out to feel more comfortable with that assertion.   A 24Hr low is projected for late morning, and the next 24Hr low will likely also be a multi-day low.  Should price break lower, support would likely be found at the weekly pivot and MW MA confluence area.  A recovery of the MD MA would likely mean that the 24Hr low and MD low have been seen and traders should then look to trade from the long side for the remainder of the day.