Tuesday 11/24/15

The daily chart shows price yesterday making a lower high and higher low versus Friday's candle.  Price thus far today has opened below the daily pivot and is currently trading below both the MD MA and MW MA.  This is certainly behavior indicative of price being on the downside of the multi-day cycle, but it also shows signs of being on the downside of the multi-week cycle; unless price finds "soft" support at these MAs and is able to rally back above them by today's close, it becomes more likely that price put in an earlier-than-projected MW high on Friday.

A slightly early MW high would not by itself be a reason for caution, though one cannot say it is bullish.  The fact that it would also be a lower MW high does not necessarily add to the bearish case either, because it only confirms the early November high as a multi-month high - which we had already assumed.   It does, however, leave open the possibility that last Monday's MW low was not the MM low, meaning a lower MM low is still in front of us.  While there is still a good chance that we are merely seeing a downturn in the MD cycle and will turn higher by later today or tomorrow, the alternative is that we are now on the downside of the MW cycle.  The next MW low is not expected until 12/8.

The hourly chart shows price making a lower 24Hr high late yesterday morning then dropping softly into a slightly lower 24Hr low by late afternoon.  Price could only manage to move sideways overnight into an early 24Hr high under daily pivot/24Hr MA resistance, indicating that price was still on the downside of the MD cycle.  We then saw a sharp drop down to the MW MA where price is trying to find support for an early 24Hr low.  The next 24Hr low is not projected until late afternoon; it is likely that the next 24Hr low will also be a multi-day low.  The MW MA would be a likely place for price to find support for this low, with the weekly pivot being the next line of support for the bulls.