Tuesday 11/17/15 - Be long or be wrong?

The daily chart shows price yesterday making a lower low but higher high and sharply higher close versus Friday's candle.  Price today has opened above the daily pivot and is currently trading above the MD MA.

We were in the timeframe to see a multi-month low and overdue to see a multi-week low and multi-day low; Friday was unquestionably a multi-day low, but much work remains to confirm that it was also a MW and MM low.  If price can continue to trade above the MD MA and turn that average upward, it will confirm that we are on the upside of the MW cycle.  If it can trade above the MW MA and turn that average upward, it will confirm that we are on the upside of the MM cycle.  The next MW high is projected for 11/25, and the next MM high is projected for late January/early February.   I expect the next MM high to be an all-time high for the market.

The hourly chart shows price making a multi-day low Friday and then finding temporary resistance at the daily pivot before the open yesterday.  While we were set up for yet another potential trend day down if the MD low was still ahead of us, I felt that there was a good chance that Friday was a multi-day low and that at worst we would see a double-bottom of Friday's low. It was mentioned that should we break through the daily pivot it would be sign that the MD low was behind us and would likely start a sharp rally.  Price did exactly that, rising throughout the day and eclipsing the weekly pivot.

Price corrected sideways overnight, and it is unclear whether a 24Hr high and low were seen during this period.  We are in the timeframe for a 24Hr high to be seen, unless my designations are wrong and a 24Hr high was seen in overnight trading (this is possible as I have a low confidence level in my current designations).  We are also in the timeframe to see a MD high, and the MD MA or MW MA would be logical places to find resistance to put in that high.   If we are on the upside of the MW and MM cycles, however, the multi-day cycle could extend in time (and often be indiscernible due to the strength of the higher-timeframe cycles).   If Friday was merely a MD low and we are still on the downside of the MW and MM cycles, then price should find resistance at this level for a 24Hr and MD high and then trade sharply lower to take out Friday's low over the next few days.  I expect the former scenario to occur and that any pullbacks will be shallow and should be used to get long.